RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jared Feinberg @JRodNFLDraft

Loved what I saw with ALA RB Jahmyr Gibbs while doing his film eval. Incredible quickness and lateral agility. His pass-catching skills are arguably the best in the class. Add on to the fact he has excellent 2nd-level acceleration. Definitely a RB Carolina could target in Rd 2.

https://twitter.com/jrodnfldraft/status/1615317142928244736?s=21

That would be a solid landing spot - moreso if CAR trades up to get Young, as some mocks have it.

 

[Ilov80s]

That would be a solid landing spot - moreso if CAR trades up to get Young, as some mocks have it.

Love that landing spot no matter who the QB is. Lots of opportunity available.

 

[Ilov80s]

Just for reference, I'll use Dane Bruglers take on Gainwell coming out since he's the guy whose quote people are referring to.

Whereas he refers to Gibbs as a special pass catcher in his writeup on Gainwell he referred to him as having "above average skills" in the passing game. And he was not low on Gainwell, had him as a projected 2-3rd round guy so he was higher on them then where he went. He has Gibbs as a first round player fwiw. I'd say maybe to that, this is not an easy year to do that especially as the likely second RB drafted. Gibbs is saying he will run in the low 4.3's, will need to be in that range to have a shot.Gai

Gainwell would have been a 2nd round pick had he not sat out because multiple members of his family died of COVID.

I think more of Gainwell’s physical attributes come into play as he was only 185’ish lbs coming out of college and reports that could not gain more muscle to hit 200-205 range to be more “impactful” to why he fell.
Not sure how much of this is accurate but I do recall that concern being reported

I think the Memphis thing matters too. I can't prove this but I think there is a bias against Memphis skill players because that offensive scheme seemed to generate video game numbers year after year. With Alabama, evaluators give those players a ton more credit.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That would be a solid landing spot - moreso if CAR trades up to get Young, as some mocks have it.

Love that landing spot no matter who the QB is. Lots of opportunity available.

Well sure - they’re a team that showed they could make a mediocre pair of RB into very productive players.

But there’s no doubt a QB upgrade would help sustain drives and lead to more production for all of the offensive players, and a rookie QB might have them leaning on a RB even more with quick dump offs.

 

[menobrown]

Jared Feinberg @JRodNFLDraft

Loved what I saw with ALA RB Jahmyr Gibbs while doing his film eval. Incredible quickness and lateral agility. His pass-catching skills are arguably the best in the class. Add on to the fact he has excellent 2nd-level acceleration. Definitely a RB Carolina could target in Rd 2.

https://twitter.com/jrodnfldraft/status/1615317142928244736?s=21

That would be a solid landing spot - moreso if CAR trades up to get Young, as some mocks have it.

Carolina is where Dane Brugler hid him going in his two round mock I posted the other day. It's an ok spot to me, hard to feel to strong one way or the other without knowing the QB and HC but if they got Payton for example as the HC it becomes a bonanaza spot based on how he has utilized RB's in the passing game.

 

[Ilov80s]

Well sure - they’re a team that showed they could make a mediocre pair of RB into very productive players.

But there’s no doubt a QB upgrade would help sustain drives and lead to more production for all of the offensive players, and a rookie QB might have them leaning on a RB even more with quick dump offs.

It might, it might not. I would not hate for Gibbs to land there and the Panthers add Carr.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It might, it might not. I would not hate for Gibbs to land there and the Panthers add Carr.

That would be even better, now that you mention it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but if they got Payton for example as the HC it becomes a bonanaza spot based on how he has utilized RB's in the passing game.

omg I’d need a tissue.

The Kamara comps are a little off, but if Payton is Panther’s HC & they get Gibbs we’re gonna have Kamara comps coming out of our ears - and potentially the production to match.

Imagine Gibbs with ~35% of the Panthers offensive production or more.

 

[menobrown]

but if they got Payton for example as the HC it becomes a bonanaza spot based on how he has utilized RB's in the passing game.

omg I’d need a tissue.

The Kamara comps are a little off, but if Payton is Panther’s HC & they get Gibbs we’re gonna have Kamara comps coming out of our ears - and potentially the production to match.

Imagine Gibbs with ~35% of the Panthers offensive production or more.

Agree the Kamara comps are off and we'd never hear the end of it Gibbs was paired with him but I think the passing game production would be on par or above what Kamara did with him.

Remember before Kamara arrived that Payton turned Sproles, who is also not very similar to Gibbs, into a top 5 fantasy RB on barely 5 carries a game. This was actually one of the reasons I was wildly high on Kamara that year. A lot of fantasy people were stuck on him dealing with ADP and Ingram as the comp but I just saw a guy who did not need a lot of rushing volume to be a top fantasy RB. Sometimes this theory works great, like with Ekeler. It's also the same theory I've have had for years with Swift and it's been more meh.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's also the same theory I've have had for years with Swift and it's been more meh.

I believe the process is correct, Swift just hasn’t delivered the reliability to meet those expectations.

One of these seasons he’s gonna start 15 games and get 15+ touches a game to be a top 5 FF back.

The talent is there.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So was Kenny Gainwell

so?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

his is exactly what I think when I hear about Gibbs.

why not Kamara?

I don't see what one failed space back has to do with another?

 

[eighsse2]

his is exactly what I think when I hear about Gibbs.

why not Kamara?

I don't see what one failed space back has to do with another?

I agree. I don't think there's any reason to expect Gibbs to be Gainwell rather than Kamara. He could be either, or anywhere in between. I guess because I drafted Gainwell, it makes me fear he could be similarly over-hyped. But for no specific reason other than similar style. At least Gibbs has a lot more hype, for what it's worth.

 

[Faust]

2023 NFL draft film room: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs

 

[Faust]

NFL Mock Draft 2023: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs earns comparison to All-Pro

 

[Faust]

Jahmyr Gibbs 2023 NFL Draft Profile

 

[Ilov80s]

I believe the process is correct, Swift just hasn’t delivered the reliability to meet those expectations.

One of these seasons he’s gonna start 15 games and get 15+ touches a game to be a top 5 FF back.

The talent is there.

Swift is quite good but he has one major flaw: durability. He is always dinged up and when he is dinged up, he doesn't seem to be able to access the gifts that make him so exciting.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think draft capital will make it pretty clear why we should value Gibbs closer to Kamara than Gainwell.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think draft capital will make it pretty clear why we should value Gibbs closer to Kamara than Gainwell.

I asked Matt Waldman on Twitter last night how he felt about Gibbs' size - he actually made the comp to Swift, and said he doubts teams will run him up the middle, which, to me, is a concern.

Now, Gibbs could still be quite valuable FF-wise in the right situation if he's going to have 80+ targets in the passing game (50+ receptions) and a handful of carries every week - IMO he'd need ~18 touches a week to be worthy of that RB2 FF draft capital.

Landing spot might be everything with this dude.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think draft capital will make it pretty clear why we should value Gibbs closer to Kamara than Gainwell.

I asked Matt Waldman on Twitter last night how he felt about Gibbs' size - he actually made the comp to Swift, and said he doubts teams will run him up the middle, which, to me, is a concern.

Now, Gibbs could still be quite valuable FF-wise in the right situation if he's going to have 80+ targets in the passing game (50+ receptions) and a handful of carries every week - IMO he'd need ~18 touches a week to be worthy of that RB2 FF draft capital.

Landing spot might be everything with this dude.

What do you think is the ideal spot? What’s the nightmare landing spot?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What do you think is the ideal spot? What’s the nightmare landing spot?

Interesting question. Can't really narrow to 1 of each, so...

Ideal: Eagles, Dolphins, Chiefs (Chiefs make a lot of sense if they don't re-sign McKinnon, and continue to use Pacheco up the gut)

Nightmares: Bears, Rams, Texans, Falcons

Maybes: Saints (if Kamara is suspended & NOS moves off of him), Panthers (they probably keep Foreman as a between the tackles banger in this scenario), Seahawks (Walker would be the between the tackles banger in this scenario)

Best guesses on short notice

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

 

[Ilov80s]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Ideal: Detroit and LAC. I think Swift and Ekeler are likely in their last year. I would love Miami as well. Good offense desperate for a weapon out of the backfield. I trust the coach to use him well. Tua seems like a guy who would dump the ball off a lot.

Not sure about nightmare. Maybe Pittsburgh or Indy since they already have young backs .

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Ideal: Detroit and LAC. I think Swift and Ekeler are likely in their last year. I would love Miami as well. Good offense desperate for a weapon out of the backfield. I trust the coach to use him well. Tua seems like a guy who would dump the ball off a lot.

Not sure about nightmare. Maybe Pittsburgh or Indy since they already have young backs .

LAC seems a bit redundant with Eke

 

[Ilov80s]

LAC seems a bit redundant with Eke

For sure but he's on the last year of his deal, if they take Gibbs I would expect them to be moving on from Ekeler for 2024. I think Gibbs could be dynamite in that Ekeler role.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

LAC seems a bit redundant with Eke

For sure but he's on the last year of his deal, if they take Gibbs I would expect them to be moving on from Ekeler for 2024. I think Gibbs could be dynamite in that Ekeler role.

Ah - yes indeed. That could well be a jackpot.

Alas, they have some depth, and have more needs aside from RB. If they take a skill position I’d expect it to be a WR.

 

[Ilov80s]

Ah - yes indeed. That could well be a jackpot.

Alas, they have some depth, and have more needs aside from RB. If they take a skill position I’d expect it to be a WR.

I would think so as well but teams do surprising things

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Ideal: Detroit and LAC. I think Swift and Ekeler are likely in their last year

He does seem like a possible replacement for Swift. And reading the tea leaves I think Jamaal staying as the short yardage back seems to be more in line with what the Lions want than extending Swift.

 

[massraider]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

Travis Etiene has entered the chat

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

Travis Etiene has entered the chat

Dude, coach might say he needs more time to get familiar with his QB.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

Travis Etiene has entered the chat

Dude, coach might say he needs more time to get familiar with his QB.

I’m actually pretty optimistic that Travis Etiene’stargets &receptions will both increase next year.

 

[Boston]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

Especially since he was seemingly replacing Hunt, who Reid used very much like Westbrook in the receiving game. It looked like a slam dunk.

 

[Boston]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

Especially since he was seemingly replacing Hunt, who Reid used very much like Westbrook in the receiving game. It looked like a slam dunk.

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

Especially since he was seemingly replacing Hunt, who Reid used very much like Westbrook in the receiving game. It looked like a slam dunk.

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I got very, very lucky - in early 2021, CEH had a string of 2 games where he was 100+ with ReTD in each. At the time I was a perennial playoff team, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th. Someone in my dynasty league offered me my own 2023 1st round pick back for CEH & I smashed accept.

After selling everything off, that pick is now 1.01, so like an alchemist turning coal to gold, I somehow turned CEH to Bijan Robinson.

Anyway, back on topic - Gibbs is interesting as I have picks 1-4. Bijan, QB, QB is my plan so far - I'm torn between JSN & Gibbs - landing spot is critical for both. If Gibbs goes to the right situation, he could be a tier above any of the WRs.

 

[eighsse2]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Somewhere without target hogs. Dink/dunk QB would be fine. A coach who wants to throw it to the backs.

Nothing worse than a RB who catches the ball, and the coach doesn't use him that way.

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

Especially since he was seemingly replacing Hunt, who Reid used very much like Westbrook in the receiving game. It looked like a slam dunk.

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I got very, very lucky - in early 2021, CEH had a string of 2 games where he was 100+ with ReTD in each. At the time I was a perennial playoff team, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th. Someone in my dynasty league offered me my own 2023 1st round pick back for CEH & I smashed accept.

After selling everything off, that pick is now 1.01, so like an alchemist turning coal to gold, I somehow turned CEH to Bijan Robinson.

Anyway, back on topic - Gibbs is interesting as I have picks 1-4. Bijan, QB, QB is my plan so far - I'm torn between JSN & Gibbs - landing spot is critical for both. If Gibbs goes to the right situation, he could be a tier above any of the WRs.

That's a slick pre-sell-off move.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's a slick pre-sell-off move.

It was the deal that inspired the full rebuild. I am not the type to tank, but most of my roster was aging, and I just couldn't get over the hump. Once I had my own 1st again, it felt like the right time. Once I sold off all my older players, the 1.01 was easy.

 

[menobrown]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Ideal: Detroit and LAC. I think Swift and Ekeler are likely in their last year. I would love Miami as well. Good offense desperate for a weapon out of the backfield. I trust the coach to use him well. Tua seems like a guy who would dump the ball off a lot.

Not sure about nightmare. Maybe Pittsburgh or Indy since they already have young backs .

Miami is pretty much my ideal landing spot for any RB but envisioning his speed with those WR's is extremely exciting. Chargers would be very nice as well.

In terms of likely spots, and I'm not gushing with excitement over this, but got to think NE is a possibility on notion they he would be paired back with BOB, serve as lighting to Rhamondre's thunder and that team needs playmakers who can flip the field.

 

[Boston]

What are your ideal, nightmare, and maybe landing spots?

Ideal: Detroit and LAC. I think Swift and Ekeler are likely in their last year. I would love Miami as well. Good offense desperate for a weapon out of the backfield. I trust the coach to use him well. Tua seems like a guy who would dump the ball off a lot.

Not sure about nightmare. Maybe Pittsburgh or Indy since they already have young backs .

Miami is pretty much my ideal landing spot for any RB but envisioning his speed with those WR's is extremely exciting. Chargers would be very nice as well.

In terms of likely spots, and I'm not gushing with excitement over this, but got to think NE is a possibility on notion they he would be paired back with BOB, serve as lighting to Rhamondre's thunder and that team needs playmakers who can flip the field.

While I understand the thinking (especially about playmakers...you are 100% correct) and do believe the Pats need to add another legit RB this offseason, they have far too many holes to take an RB at #1...on offense alone T, WR and TE are bigger needs...and the D needs some help as well...the Pats are just not in a spot to do this.

 

[menobrown]

CEH is the poster child for misuse...when he was a surprise first round pick by KC, I know I was convinced he would be used like Westbrook in Philly or Hunt as a rookie with KC...instead they have used him as a power back which makes the fact they passed on Taylor that much more egregious.

I spent years frustrated at why they used him like they did. Would think of same thing you said, why not just draft Taylor? Now the more I've seen of him I'm starting to wonder if once they got him in the building they knew fairly quickly they'd made a mistake and he was not up to the task they envisioned and had to adjust.

After selling everything off, that pick is now 1.01, so like an alchemist turning coal to gold, I somehow turned CEH to Bijan Robinson.

I drafted CEH on a whopping 4 teams. I did not turn him into a Bijan but I did exit nicely in 3/4 leagues. This off-season I traded him twice for ETN and back during the 2021 season when he got hurt someone offered me Mixon for him and I took it, and this this off-season turned Mixon into 1.2 to draft Walker. So two ETN's and Walker. Not bad, still stuck with him on one league.

There is a lesson to be learned here. People always talk about how risky picks are but a lot of these high pedigreed/high draft picks often provide a viable exit if you don't like what you bought.

 

[menobrown]

While I understand the thinking (especially about playmakers...you are 100% correct) and do believe the Pats need to add another legit RB this offseason, they have far too many holes to take an RB at #1...on offense alone T, WR and TE are bigger needs...and the D needs some help as well...the Pats are just not in a spot to do this.

I was thinking more in the second if he makes it that far or if they moved around in the draft. Two of those needs, T and WR, might not have prospects graded out high enough in that second round range, but that does look like a sweet spot for TE's.

 

[Ilov80s]

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I think it's pretty simple: CEH is small and slow. That's a bad combo. He was good against college defenses that were constantly in a state of shell shock from Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, Marshall and Moss running all over field.

 

[Boston]

While I understand the thinking (especially about playmakers...you are 100% correct) and do believe the Pats need to add another legit RB this offseason, they have far too many holes to take an RB at #1...on offense alone T, WR and TE are bigger needs...and the D needs some help as well...the Pats are just not in a spot to do this.

I was thinking more in the second if he makes it that far or if they moved around in the draft. Two of those needs, T and WR, might not have prospects graded out high enough in that second round range, but that does look like a sweet spot for TE's.

Sign me up if they can get him in the second.

 

[Boston]

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I think it's pretty simple: CEH is small and slow. That's a bad combo. He was good against college defenses that were constantly in a state of shell shock from Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, Marshall and Moss running all over field.

I don't disagree at all now that we have seen him...but I also think KC has totally misused him.

 

[Ilov80s]

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I think it's pretty simple: CEH is small and slow. That's a bad combo. He was good against college defenses that were constantly in a state of shell shock from Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, Marshall and Moss running all over field.

I don't disagree at all now that we have seen him...but I also think KC has totally misused him.

Perhaps but I trust Andy Reid enough to say there is probably a reason behind the usage.

 

[Boston]

I know I thought so...and I will always have to live with that draft pick...would like to say lesson learned but it still does not make sense to me.

I think it's pretty simple: CEH is small and slow. That's a bad combo. He was good against college defenses that were constantly in a state of shell shock from Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, Marshall and Moss running all over field.

I don't disagree at all now that we have seen him...but I also think KC has totally misused him.

Perhaps but I trust Andy Reid enough to say there is probably a reason behind the usage.

Then why did they use a #1 on him?

 

[Ilov80s]

Then why did they use a #1 on him?

I would guess that the team just missed on their evaluation of him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There is a lesson to be learned here. People always talk about how risky picks are but a lot of these high pedigreed/high draft picks often provide a viable exit if you don't like what you bought.

Absolutely a fantastic point. There’s always someone who believes, and the draft capital often makes NFL teams hold longer than they should.

I feel like that window is closed for CEH at this point though.

 

[massraider]

Then why did they use a #1 on him?

They got fooled. He was surrounded by an all time team. He showed up in camp, and they were like, oh, he's just a guy.
There were plenty of people warning about CEH, but once he went to KC (OMGcanyouimaginethenumbershecouldputup??!!!) he was a guarantee overrated fantasy prospect as well.

I keep looking out for the next back who catches 80 balls. Gibbs might have that ceiling. And I think he will be insanely efficient. Antonio Gibson floor. Top 24 floor. But if some team makes him the #2 receiving option, you can get some top 5 finishes. Kamara is the goal, right?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Then why did they use a #1 on him?

They got fooled. He was surrounded by an all time team. He showed up in camp, and they were like, oh, he's just a guy.
There were plenty of people warning about CEH, but once he went to KC (OMGcanyouimaginethenumbershecouldputup??!!!) he was a guarantee overrated fantasy prospect as well.

I keep looking out for the next back who catches 80 balls. Gibbs might have that ceiling. And I think he will be insanely efficient. Antonio Gibson floor. Top 24 floor. But if some team makes him the #2 receiving option, you can get some top 5 finishes. Kamara is the goal, right?

Kamara is built heavier though. 5’10, 215

Gibbs is like 5’11, 200

I’m really hoping that he’s been doing nothing but eating & lifting from now until the combine. 210 would give me a little more confidence.