Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Honestly none of us really know anything and that's all we can do.
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RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well there were only two really good rookie RBs in that draft class (3 if you want to count Pierce) and Hall went down to injury.
Yeah, I think pretty much everyone in the Walker camp thinks (hopes?) this is the case.
Personally I don't think it's very likely. There were (still are) plenty of cheap, reliable, productive enough veteran RBs available that filling that need through free agency would have made a lot more sense IMO. Seattle could disagree of course, but it seems more likely to me that that really like Charbs and plan to use him as more than just depth. How much more and whether that actually comes to fruition is tbd.
I for sure count Pierce myself but I don't think it should be overly debated he had a really strong rookie season and actually got more first place votes for offensive rookie of the year then anyone.
Charb's might be an issue for his fantasy upside, sure feels like it to me. But I draw the line on any notion of them picking Charb as being a valid reason for people coming out of the woodwork to start taking shots at Walker(not that I'm saying you are). He's a legit big time talent IMO.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah, I’m actually a fan of Walker’s game and not trying to tear him down. I’m just on board with your first sentence and not sure how anyone can realistically feel otherwise.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Have you guys read Warren Sharps chapter on the Seahawks? There’s some good data in there about Walker. The advanced metrics show a lot of inefficiency in his performance. I do like the player but the stats all point to him being an overall negative EV option last year. Seattle is the type of team that considers this kinda stuff so it’s not out of bounds to me they might have felt motivated by the data to add to the backfield. That would be worse in my mind than just them going BPA and thinking they have two weapons now.
I’m probably not ending up with either player anywhere but it’s interesting to consider.
I’m probably not ending up with either player anywhere but it’s interesting to consider.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Crunching the numbers from last year, Walker played over 50% of the offensive snaps 11 times. In those 11 games, he averaged a 71% snap share and 17.4 points PPR. 17 games at that rate last year would have been good for RB 4, 15 games RB 6 and 13 games RB 15. If the snap share is ratioed down to 60%, he would have averaged 14.7 points PPR. That would have produced RB 9 with 17 games, RB 15 with 15 games and RB 21 with 13 games. I don't question his talent. As is usually the case, health and snap share are the two big variables.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
This is all fine to consider as the other side of the argument, but it doesn’t really address the real life inefficiency of the player. Now, maybe he gets better this year, it’s certainly possible. Just saying that if they noticed the data, which again Seattle pays attention to, and Charbs is good, that 60% snap share may end up being too optimistic. Or, if it results in him losing goal line and pass catching snaps, that’s a problem too.
Figuring out where to live between these two narratives is the challenge.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Probably. If so, it’s / pretty stupid use of draft capital when you can get quality backup (or even starting) RBs in rounds 4-7 with how undervalued RBs are these days.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
The interior of the O-line did not play that well last year, and both of their tackles were rookies. Two of the starters from last year are gone. They added two lineman in the draft, signed a guy who started all year for a good Detroit team, and are getting an injured guy back. Better line play will help his efficiency. Receiving and short yardage work were not where he scored point last year. He had 27 catches and 1 touchdown from inside the 5. Lack of production from those two areas do limit his ceiling, but if he stays healthy, his floor is a high end RB 2.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Scroll to that post showing the Penny/Carson comparison. That is as good an indicator as any.
Walker is the guy in SEA. Charbs will mix in and siphon off some passing work. That leaves a lot of meat on the bone for Walker to gnaw on. Woof woof!
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't see how anybody can declare Walker "the guy in SEA." This sounds like wishcasting or being forced to produce fantasy content for one of those bogus online advice sites. Charbonnet was drafted in the second round. He has nearly the same draft capital that Walker does. Walker was pick 41 and Charbonnet was pick 52. That's a minuscule difference. There's no way Seattle is wasting a second-round pick on somebody they don't plan on using.
Da Franchise makes a really good point about success rates and EV. I think teams have begun to pay a lot more attention to this stuff. RYOE is another stat that they look at. Walker was okay in that statistic, averaging more YPC than expected. But if he's not doing well in other stats normalized for offensive line play, then a team is sure to look at other backs. In fact, if you look at RYOE, you can see teams moving on from backs that didn't do well in that stat at a profound rate. K. Herbert led the league in RYOE and Montgomery was awful. Montgomery jettisoned. Pollard was second in RYOE and Elliott was miserable. Elliott jettisoned to no interest.
Digressing a little, but you get the idea. Teams are looking at these stats and making decisions at RB based upon them.
Da Franchise makes a really good point about success rates and EV. I think teams have begun to pay a lot more attention to this stuff. RYOE is another stat that they look at. Walker was okay in that statistic, averaging more YPC than expected. But if he's not doing well in other stats normalized for offensive line play, then a team is sure to look at other backs. In fact, if you look at RYOE, you can see teams moving on from backs that didn't do well in that stat at a profound rate. K. Herbert led the league in RYOE and Montgomery was awful. Montgomery jettisoned. Pollard was second in RYOE and Elliott was miserable. Elliott jettisoned to no interest.
Digressing a little, but you get the idea. Teams are looking at these stats and making decisions at RB based upon them.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I saw it. Not sure why it would be meaningful. These are different players in different situations.
dipandglide
Footballguy
It's not meaningful that in the past, Seattle used a 1st round pick on an RB (Penny), and he barely played behind the incumbent (Carson)?
It's difficult to accept because this happened only a handful of years ago, and what you're saying isn't true. Penny barely played.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No. Carson was very good in short yardage and the passing game and Penny couldn’t stay healthy. These are different players and different situations.
IMO no, it isn't meaningful because it was a very different situation. Carson wasn't nearly the "incumbent" that Walker is, he was a 7th round pick who played in 4 games before going on IR for the season. I don't think they drafted Penny with the intention of him sitting behind Carson, that's just the way it played out.
Thanks.
Yet they did exactly that with a 1st rounder with Penny.
This reply is so confusing. What side are you arguing here?
Seattle drafted a 1st round RB to overtake the 7th round Carson you just referred to. But Pete ended up sticking with Carson. To me, it doesn't matter why. He did.
Seattle had no depth behind Walker. They saw a player who could immediately HELP them and was a position of need. Some of you act like Seattle had no other RB's on their roster last year.
And, as JoeKapp said their O-line wasn't good last year. Yet Walker had 4.6 yards per carry.
I don't think the Walker supporters are any less "wishcasting" than the Charbs supporters.
Walker has already proved it on the field. Was has Charbs done in the NFL?
I say he's the guy because he's already proven he can be.
I like how you compared RB's tandem last year as an example. Yet you can't do that in this case with Walker and Charbonnet. Zach has never played a down in the NFL.
So are you just assuming Zach would have done better? And, if so, who is the one truly "wishcasting"?
If they truly just signed Charbonnet as depth because there was nothing behind Walker, why not wait a few rounds later and get a Roschon or Chase Brown, etc?
It's been my belief that Charb's was BPA at a position they have usually needed depth. I would not say they used a second round pick on him just for depth to be clear.
They took Hall over him earlier in round two, did not make any attempts to trade up to draft Charbonnet, nothing about the selection of him to me suggests he was what I'd classify as a player they were targeting.
I'm sorry you think it's so confusing- I think part of the reason is because you are clearly entrenched on one side so you aren't seeing things objectively. I'm not on any side, I'm just saying that these two situations aren't similar at all.
2017- All Seattle RBs combined for 994 yds. rushing, 3.3 ypc, 1 rushing TD. Carson had 208 yds rushing, 4.2 ypc, 0 TDs in 4 games before going on IR. He was pick #249 and the 25th RB selected.
2022- Walker had 1050 yards rushing, 4.6 ypc, and 9 rushing TDs. Walker was pick #41 and the 2nd RB selected.
Almost everyone expected them to draft a RB early in 2018 because their RBs were terrible, injured, and/or unproven. Almost no one expected them to draft a RB early in 2023 because they already had Walker. The irony is that the more you argue how good Walker was, the less sense it makes for them to draft another RB early. Yes, they still needed depth, but teams don't typically spend 2nd round picks on RBs just for depth. Either cheap veterans or later picks (like they did in the 7th as well) make a lot more sense for that.
The reason the "why" matters is because we're all trying to figure out what these players are worth right now- if Charbs was drafted purely for depth, then his value would be much lower and Walker's would be much higher than if he was drafted to split touches including taking the majority of the valuable receptions and goal line work. Obviously no one really knows for sure (and we likely never will), and value is fluid so it will change based on how it all plays out. All the Carson/Penny situation proves is that things don't always go according to plan, it doesn't really give us any insight into what their plan is for Walker/Charbs IMO.
TripItUp
Footballguy
At this point you're in one of 3 camps
1) Charb is a real threat to Walker's fantasy production.
2) Charb is a minor threat and will steal some work
3) Charb will have little to no impact
Nobody really knows, but as I've stated earlier I'm more in the latter two camps. I think Seattle reached on Charbonnet and is not as good as his draft capital...and I'm not on an island with that opinion either, as several respected podcasts have shared that opinion as well.
1) Charb is a real threat to Walker's fantasy production.
2) Charb is a minor threat and will steal some work
3) Charb will have little to no impact
Nobody really knows, but as I've stated earlier I'm more in the latter two camps. I think Seattle reached on Charbonnet and is not as good as his draft capital...and I'm not on an island with that opinion either, as several respected podcasts have shared that opinion as well.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
I think the improvement in the O-line will add enough fantasy meat to the bone for Walker to be RB 14 and Charbs RB 30.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This was a pretty long time ago and the RB landscape has certainly changed since then. Fewer RB being selected in the 1st round than in the past, but there has been some historical evidence of teams using 2nd round picks on RB with intent of those RB to be depth and/or change of pace players.
The example that immediately springs to mind for me is when the Vikings selected Toby Gerhardt in the 2nd round when they already had Adrian Peterson.
I don't think we knew this at the time but Peterson was terrible in pass protection and the team was very much built around running the ball. So while the pick was made with depth purposes in mind, there was actually more to it than that. They wanted a RB who could be trusted more in pass protection and also better for screen passes and 3rd down situations.
Does Walker have holes in his game that Charbonnet might fill?
I don't know just asking. I have read in the thread that he may have been inefficient in some areas of his game. So perhaps the pick has something to do with that besides just depth.
Some may see this as a misuse of draft capital, but if this important to the team they might view it as worth the pick. Right or wrong.
The example that immediately springs to mind for me is when the Vikings selected Toby Gerhardt in the 2nd round when they already had Adrian Peterson.
I don't think we knew this at the time but Peterson was terrible in pass protection and the team was very much built around running the ball. So while the pick was made with depth purposes in mind, there was actually more to it than that. They wanted a RB who could be trusted more in pass protection and also better for screen passes and 3rd down situations.
Does Walker have holes in his game that Charbonnet might fill?
I don't know just asking. I have read in the thread that he may have been inefficient in some areas of his game. So perhaps the pick has something to do with that besides just depth.
Some may see this as a misuse of draft capital, but if this important to the team they might view it as worth the pick. Right or wrong.
The Finist
Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised if Charbs is beat out by McIntosh for RB2 COP role. I would be very surprised if Charbs managed a 50/50 or even 40/60 split with K9 outside of injury. Jmo
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These are actually good points. Combine that with the fact they also took McIntosh in the 7th and I feel even more comfortable with my stance on Walker.
They may not have traded up for him but if he truly was their BPA doesn’t that mean he’s going to play? Or at least get the opportunity.
I mean, it was either they had some reservations about KW being THE guy or they strictly went with their best player on the board-both of which indicates, at least to me, Charbonnet is going to be on the field early and often.
Anyway, not a hill I need to die on. We’ll see how it shakes out. I think there’s going to be enough opportunity for both guys to be relevant out of the gate.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agree with this and think either are a potential league winner if the other goes down during the season.
I am of the opinion that it makes a big difference if they took targeted Charb due to displeasure with Walker vs taking BPA at a what is a position of some need. I strongly refute the notion it's due to unhappines with Walker.
As for him being on the field early and often I can't say I agree with that either. Second round picks sit behind incumbent starters all the time or have roles that are clearly reserve roles. It's been discussed to death here already that some of the RB's that Seattle spend high picks on, in fact all of them really, got pretty limited playing time to start. That part has to be earned. As a second round pick and a player they had a fairly high grade he's got a clear path to earn it but that will depend on how he does.
As you said we'll see how it goes. I will admit that I've never been high on Charb, seems a bit stiff to me. But the path is there for him to earn it and we'll see how it goes. Out of the gate I will say I'd be very surprised if it does not look like Walker as clear cut number one with Charbs in a reserve role looking to earn more. My fear as a Walker owner is not and has never been the team is down on him or prefers Charb, but I think his upside got dented heavily.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is anyone really making that argument though? I'm not seeing that in here. Most of the back and forth is about how much of an impact Charb makes on Walker's volume - I see no one saying "Walker is terrible and they drafted Charbonet to take over". The closets it gets to that is some acknowledging Charbonet is likely better at some of the aspects where Walker isn't as strong.
I've not read everything but yes it's here, not the dominant discussion but it's here and almost always involves some talk of Walkers efficiency metrics. Even the post I just responded to insinuated that it was possible they drafted Charb due to not thinking Walker was the guy.
This is where I’m at.
I still see Walker being the lead back, but what wouldn’t surprise me is if it’s more like a 60/40 by mid season and Charbonnet is getting the majority of the receiving work(Walker was not efficient at all in that area last year) and a good chunk of the goal line work.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think you're reading into it a bit - but fair enough.
Birdie048
Footballguy
There were some analytics commenting that KWIII was well below expected (his runs for "net loss" was high IIRC). I saw the data as he was "all or nothing" RB and not what Pete Carrol wanted to control the offensive scheme. Nothing was specifically applied by SEA Coaching but the fact they do use these analytic tools was a known fact.
As a Charbs owner, I am not expecting much unless injury occurs, but I think after week 4, 20% Charbs is reasonable, more 3rd Down Role/Receiving threat, minor GL touches until he proves himself repeatedly (week 10+).. nothing extravagant.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’ve presented that narrative up thread. Not saying I’m buying it, quite honestly not sure what to think and am not worried about figuring it out because I’m likely going to have zero shares of both, but think if you’re involved with either player it’s something that should at least be considered.
Thought Walker looked really good last year on the eyeball test. I’m interested to see what Warren Sharp has to say but haven’t got to that chapter of his book yet. Just have seen underlying metrics presented here and there which point to inefficiency. And Penny did not have the same issue when he had his stint last year. Shrug.
Weebs210
Footballguy
I'm not saying Walker will be good or bad but how does both rbs getting injured confirm anything?
Despite the additions to the Seahawks' running back room, Walker remains the most talented back in the group. In crowded backfields, the tendency is to favor the most skilled player, and Walker fits that description. He has the potential to follow a similar path as Nick Chubb in fantasy football. Chubb's receiving work limits his value, but his rushing volume and improved efficiency make him a valuable asset. Walker's value could similarly be derived from his rushing performance and potential improvement in efficiency.
Moreover, an injury to Charbonnet could provide a significant opportunity for Walker to become a top-5 asset in all fantasy formats. Considering recent developments in dynasty leagues, Walker presents as a buying opportunity. His talent, where he currently ranks in dynasty rankings, and the potential for an increased workload make him an enticing option for fantasy managers looking to bolster their running back corps.
The Seahawks' selection of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL draft came as a big surprise, especially with Ken Walker III already on their roster. Charbonnet had an impressive college career at UCLA, leading the Pac-12 in rushing in 2022 with 1,359 yards and fourteen touchdowns. He also improved his receiving skills with 37 catches for 321 yards.
In the Seahawks' offensive system, both running backs are expected to be utilized, with Charbonnet likely taking on the secondary option 1B role to Walker. He will likely see more involvement in passing downs, showcasing his improved receiving profile. Additionally, Charbonnet could get some goal-line opportunities, especially considering Walker's inefficiency in that area last season. However, the volume for Charbonnet in 2023 is expected to be low, making it difficult to rely on him in weekly redraft leagues.
Moreover, an injury to Charbonnet could provide a significant opportunity for Walker to become a top-5 asset in all fantasy formats. Considering recent developments in dynasty leagues, Walker presents as a buying opportunity. His talent, where he currently ranks in dynasty rankings, and the potential for an increased workload make him an enticing option for fantasy managers looking to bolster their running back corps.
The Seahawks' selection of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL draft came as a big surprise, especially with Ken Walker III already on their roster. Charbonnet had an impressive college career at UCLA, leading the Pac-12 in rushing in 2022 with 1,359 yards and fourteen touchdowns. He also improved his receiving skills with 37 catches for 321 yards.
In the Seahawks' offensive system, both running backs are expected to be utilized, with Charbonnet likely taking on the secondary option 1B role to Walker. He will likely see more involvement in passing downs, showcasing his improved receiving profile. Additionally, Charbonnet could get some goal-line opportunities, especially considering Walker's inefficiency in that area last season. However, the volume for Charbonnet in 2023 is expected to be low, making it difficult to rely on him in weekly redraft leagues.
Graziano's notes from Seahawks camp:
Assuming Walker and Charbonnet get healthy in time for the season, the sense I get is a) Walker would still be the starter and get the bulk of the work and b) Charbonnet would also have a role, perhaps in the two-minute or four-minute offense. People I spoke to here believe they complement each other well, and the team anticipates using them in tandem to some extent. But if Charbonnet has to miss extended time in camp, just the fact that he's a rookie could change the Seahawks' plan if they determine he hasn't had enough development time. Several people I talked to in Seattle mentioned how great an offseason Walker had, and they foresee improvement from him in 2023.
www.espn.com
Assuming Walker and Charbonnet get healthy in time for the season, the sense I get is a) Walker would still be the starter and get the bulk of the work and b) Charbonnet would also have a role, perhaps in the two-minute or four-minute offense. People I spoke to here believe they complement each other well, and the team anticipates using them in tandem to some extent. But if Charbonnet has to miss extended time in camp, just the fact that he's a rookie could change the Seahawks' plan if they determine he hasn't had enough development time. Several people I talked to in Seattle mentioned how great an offseason Walker had, and they foresee improvement from him in 2023.
Latest buzz from NFL training camp: What we heard at Lions, Packers, Giants practices
Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler have everything you need to know from all 15 stops of their annual training camp trips.
TripItUp
Footballguy
it's really that simple
So weird how so many are trying to make Charbonnet a thing....even some respected analysts. Pretty disappointing from somebody who actually watched Charbonnet a lot in college. Some of the analysis is actually "Charbonnet was drafter at X so he's going to be Y productive. "
Maybe try watching some football.
The Finist
Footballguy
Couldn't agree more. Especially taken into context that it was in Chip Kelly's offense vs subpar cfb defenses. I am being nice with subpar.
Walker III has big year if healthy getting bulk of work.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sometimes I wonder about west coast teams like the Seahawks and whether they have a local edge in terms of scouting the PAC ~12 simply because of geography. (One could argue it is a positive bias I suppose). I also wonder sometimes if folks from the midwest/south/east coast are negatively biased against the PAC ~12 also because of geography. I don't watch CFB but I'm reasonably well informed and I know that *nobody* credible is talking about how good the defenses are out here, so I think that point certainly holds water. But it *is* possible to succeed in Chip Kelly's system against bad defenses *and* be good. It doesn't mean you're a scrub just because you tore up the competition the way you were supposed to.
I don't think saying "you can't anoint him too much because of the system/situation in college" naturally leads to saying he is a scrub. If the take is that he is a scrub, and it's based on "Chip Kelly and poor defenses" - then that logic is 100% the exact same process and therefore holds just as little water.
I watch plenty of film of CFB players but I don't watch games or follow it and I understand that makes it a completely different thing, but I'd like to ask those that do -
what are the flaws in his game or in terms of talent? not talking about the system/competition - does he make people miss? how is he with contact? can he block? receiving ability, does he have that dog in him, etc....?
I don't think saying "you can't anoint him too much because of the system/situation in college" naturally leads to saying he is a scrub. If the take is that he is a scrub, and it's based on "Chip Kelly and poor defenses" - then that logic is 100% the exact same process and therefore holds just as little water.
I watch plenty of film of CFB players but I don't watch games or follow it and I understand that makes it a completely different thing, but I'd like to ask those that do -
what are the flaws in his game or in terms of talent? not talking about the system/competition - does he make people miss? how is he with contact? can he block? receiving ability, does he have that dog in him, etc....?
The Finist
Footballguy
He makes people miss and breaks tackles. It's just hard to see if that translates to the NFL when it is vs mostly terrible team defenses and poor tacklers. He is schemed wide open on a lot of passes and running through massive holes. It won't be like that in the NFL.
Mostly he is a question mark coming into the NFL. It's going to be really big adjustment for him compared to a player like McIntosh out of uga.
