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RB rankings & tierings (ppr redraft) (1 Viewer)

JayMan

Footballguy
First off... some explanations:

Players are grouped by tiering - listed by projected FFpts in the tierings;
PPR - 6pts/TD - 1pt/10yds;
First numerical column (1-5:highest) is reward/ceiling - related to possible production if everything clicks;
Last numerical column (1:low - 5) is risk/floor - related to injuries / opportunities / past production:
Code:
01-LaDainian Tomlinson, SD--5-102-Steven Jackson, STL------5-203-Brian Westbrook, PHI-----5-304-Larry Johnson, KC--------5-205-Frank Gore, SF-----------5-306-Reggie Bush, NO----------5-307-Joseph Addai, IND--------5-208-Willie Parker, PIT-------4-209-Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX--4-310-Shaun Alexander, SEA-----5-311-Laurence Maroney, NE-----4-212-Rudi Johnson, CIN--------4-113-Edgerrin James, ARI------3-214-Clinton Portis, WAS------5-315-Ronnie Brown, MIA--------4-316-Travis Henry, DEN--------4-317-Willis McGahee, BAL------4-318-Ahman Green, HOU---------3-319-Cedric Benson, CHI-------4-420-Thomas Jones, NYJ--------3-321-Adrian Peterson, MIN-----5-422-Brandon Jacobs, NYG------4-323-Deuce McAllister, NO-----3-324-Cadillac Williams, TB----4-425-Kevin Jones, DET---------3-526-DeAngelo Williams, CAR---3-327-Marion Barber III, DAL---3-328-Marshawn Lynch, BUF------3-329-Jamal Lewis, CLE---------3-330-LenDale White, TEN-------2-531-Vernand Morency, GB------2-432-Fred Taylor, JAX---------2-533-Ladell Betts, WAS--------2-434-Warrick Dunn, ATL--------3-335-Brandon Jackson, GB------2-336-Jerious Norwood, ATL-----2-337-Julius Jones, DAL--------2-438-Chester Taylor, MIN------2-439-Reuben Droughns, NYG-----2-440-LaMont Jordan, OAK-------2-341-Tatum Bell, DET----------1-442-Michael Turner, SD-------1-343-Leon Washington, NYJ-----1-344-DeShaun Foster, CAR------1-545-Michael Pittman, TB------1-346-Dominic Rhodes, OAK------1-347-Mike Bell, DEN-----------1-448-Correll Buckhalter, PHI--1-5
Thoughts?
 
As I am reading the tea leaves, Fred Taylor is still the starter in Jacksonville, so MJD is way too high IMO.

 
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As I am reading the tea leaves, Fred Taylor is still the starter in Jacksonville, so MJD is way too high IMO.
Good point... yet - when looking at the FBG rankings (for comparison purposes) the 12 experts have MJD ranked, on average, 18 slots higher than Taylor... Do you think the FBG consensus of MJD 18 slots higher than Taylor on average is strickly based on 'RB2-vulture' projections or it shows an expanded role for MJD?I won't state actual rankings - but I concur that my ranking of MJD is higher than the FBG concensus... I'm forecasting (rushes) 40%-Taylor; 40%-MJD; 10%-rest (Jones / Toefield / Pearman / etc.)... but I dont think 50/55 catches is too much of a reach for MJD... with 46 last year... (ppr gold)
 
MJD ran for a lot of homeruns, now there on to him so the big break out runs will stop.

MJD a good pick.......yes, but if you are taking him over ANY other full time starter its a mistake.

 
I like how you've graded based on a risk/reward scale. I do see a few things that stood out to me:

- LJ below Westy, when you have LJ as a lower risk and an equal reward (Addai below Bush, same thing)

- MJD with a 4-3, yet many slots ahead of RB's with a better risk/reward ratio

My only suggestion would be to increase your scale from 1-10. This would help with the separation, and may answer some of those questions that people will have. Perhaps you have MJD's reward too low/risk to high in your own system? Maybe you consider him a high 4 reward/low 3 risk?

 
I like how you've graded based on a risk/reward scale. I do see a few things that stood out to me:- LJ below Westy, when you have LJ as a lower risk and an equal reward (Addai below Bush, same thing)- MJD with a 4-3, yet many slots ahead of RB's with a better risk/reward ratioMy only suggestion would be to increase your scale from 1-10. This would help with the separation, and may answer some of those questions that people will have. Perhaps you have MJD's reward too low/risk to high in your own system? Maybe you consider him a high 4 reward/low 3 risk?
:goodposting: I've thought about going on a 1-10 scale because alot of the high2/low3 range values are blurred here... I've posted the guys in the same tiering based on descending FFpts resulting from projections - hence why some of the guys (like LJ and Westy) seems to be misranked according to risk/reward but those two figures are added afterwards - as a draft reminder... because if I'm faced with picking LJ or Westy (1st round obviously!) the risk '3' figure for Westy is a reminder of his past injuries and the possibility of Buckhalter staying healthy for more than a preseason game this year...These rankings and risk/reward values will evidently change come september...
 
very intersting...I am in the middle of a PPR redraft ( RTMasters Draft) where i went WR,WR first two rounds..trust me very scary...But starting requirements allow to start 1 rbs and 3 WRs...here is are the picks

1:11 S. Smith CAR WR

2:2 C Johnson CIN WR

3:11 A Peterson MIN RB

4:2 A Boldin ARI WR :mellow:

5:11 A Green HOU RB

6:2 T Gonzo KAN TE

I was Hoping to land Duece MC...at 3:11 and he was still there..but so was AD..So I had to go with the upside...Getting Boldin at 4:2 was a shock , and i Knew i could wait passed the turnfor him, because the guy picking the turn had Fitz already....it was also nice to find A Green at 5:11

But i whished i would have seen this post before i took the leap...I would have felt much better Picking AD ..

IF he is a 5 on the reward scale ...This team Could be SCARY GOOD

 
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I would have felt much better Picking AD ..IF he is a 5 on the reward scale ...This team Could be SCARY GOOD
Obvisouly - this 5-reward ranking is just my personal belief (and I'm no FF expert my any mean - in comparison to alot of the guts here - why I asked about comments on my rankings)... but the 'reward' ranking is based on 'what if everything goes right for that RB' - and I'm confident that AD is scary if everything clicks (i.e. getting most of the rushes / no injury / shows good hands / pass protects well)... he could be special - and we all know RB don't take much time to develop (just ask Edge! :yes: )
 
nice list. i would disagree with jackson being an entire tier higher than LJ, Westy, and Gore though.

Question - You have MJD ranked one spot higher than Alexander, though he has a lower ceiling and equal risk. I'm going to guess this is because there's ceiling, floor, and expectation between the two, which is higher for MJD? Just looks odd seeing Alexander behind MJD, but with a higher ceiling and equal risk.

eta: Also, why the risk of 2 for Jackson? IMO he's as safe as LT. What are your thoughts here?

 
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nice list. i would disagree with jackson being an entire tier higher than LJ, Westy, and Gore though.Question - You have MJD ranked one spot higher than Alexander, though he has a lower ceiling and equal risk. I'm going to guess this is because there's ceiling, floor, and expectation between the two, which is higher for MJD? Just looks odd seeing Alexander behind MJD, but with a higher ceiling and equal risk.
First off - thanks!Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...I've posted the guys in the same tiering based on descending FFpts resulting from projections - hence why some of the guys (like MJD and SA) seems to be misranked according to risk/reward but those two figures are added afterwards - as a draft reminder... This is not to say I would draft MJD ahead of SA if I had the chance to (guys in the same tiering are - by default - very close in my projections)... those are just reminders - if I have a 'risky' team already - why not go with the 'good old dependable' one...
 
nice list. i would disagree with jackson being an entire tier higher than LJ, Westy, and Gore though.Question - You have MJD ranked one spot higher than Alexander, though he has a lower ceiling and equal risk. I'm going to guess this is because there's ceiling, floor, and expectation between the two, which is higher for MJD? Just looks odd seeing Alexander behind MJD, but with a higher ceiling and equal risk.
First off - thanks!Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...I've posted the guys in the same tiering based on descending FFpts resulting from projections - hence why some of the guys (like MJD and SA) seems to be misranked according to risk/reward but those two figures are added afterwards - as a draft reminder... This is not to say I would draft MJD ahead of SA if I had the chance to (guys in the same tiering are - by default - very close in my projections)... those are just reminders - if I have a 'risky' team already - why not go with the 'good old dependable' one...
:rolleyes:
 
I realize that RB is one of the few positions that teams can expect a big payoff from rookies (especially from the 1st round), but I really don't see AD coming up big this year for a few reasons.

1. Taylor was no slouch last year with over 1200 yds and 6TDs.

2. AD is coming off an injury riddled season from which he may not be totally healthy.

I think the most likely situation is Minnesota eases AD into things to make sure he is fully healthy, and once that happens there will be a RBBC situation (see McCallister-Bush, Rhodes-Addai, Taylor-MJD, etc.).

Don't mean to hijack the post, but just thought I'd add my :lmao:

Great list though, thanks a bunch!

 
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I realize that RB is one of the few positions that teams can expect a big payoff from rookies (especially from the 1st round), but I really don't see AD coming up big this year for a few reasons.1. Taylor was no slouch last year with over 1200 yds and 6TDs. 2. AD is coming off an injury riddled season from which he may not be totally healthy.I think the most likely situation is Minnesota eases AD into things to make sure he is fully healthy, and once that happens there will be a RBBC situation (see McCallister-Bush, Rhodes-Addai, Taylor-MJD, etc.).Don't mean to hijack the post, but just thought I'd add my :own3d:Great list though, thanks a bunch!
First off... thanks!...Fair points... I'm projecting a 55%-AD; 35%-CT; 10%-others ratio for rushes... and most of the TDs going to AD (explosiveness and breakaway speed helping on a few of these)... I don't think AD has too many flaws that would keep him off the field (like most rookies have when coming into the league) - pass protection/blitz picking, bad hands, etc.I can't argue against the points you are bringing to the table - I will just have to respectfully disagree... and hope that the injury is not too serious (the rankings would obvisouly change if fresher news were available - we'll see come september)
 
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Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...
Emphasis mine.Last year, Steven Jackson had the 5th highest yards-from-scrimmage total... in NFL history. Expecting him to come anywhere NEAR those numbers again this year is, in my mind, very unrealistic- sort of like projecting Tomlinson for 25 TDs or whatever because he just so happened to play out of his mind last year.

 
Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...
Emphasis mine.Last year, Steven Jackson had the 5th highest yards-from-scrimmage total... in NFL history. Expecting him to come anywhere NEAR those numbers again this year is, in my mind, very unrealistic- sort of like projecting Tomlinson for 25 TDs or whatever because he just so happened to play out of his mind last year.
Again... all he needs to do is repeat his numbers in the final month. Money time. He will produce plenty for the first 12 weeks to help power a team to the playoffs. But when you need every point you can get in the finish... at Cincy :pickle: GNB :) Pit :thumbup: @Ari :thumbup: . At least Pit is in the dome.

Thats pretty damn good and he has already shown he can finish stronger then every other RB in the league if given the chance.

 
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Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...
Emphasis mine.Last year, Steven Jackson had the 5th highest yards-from-scrimmage total... in NFL history. Expecting him to come anywhere NEAR those numbers again this year is, in my mind, very unrealistic- sort of like projecting Tomlinson for 25 TDs or whatever because he just so happened to play out of his mind last year.
Again... all he needs to do is repeat his numbers in the final month. Money time. He will produce plenty for the first 12 weeks to help power a team to the playoffs. But when you need every point you can get in the finish... at Cincy :scared: GNB :lmao: Pit :goodposting: @Ari :thumbup: . At least Pit is in the dome.

Thats pretty damn good and he has already shown he can finish stronger then every other RB in the league if given the chance.
That's hardly the cake schedule that you're portraying it to be. Last year, Green Bay finished 13th in rushing yards allowed and 17th in yards per carry allowed. Ari finished 16th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in yards per carry allowed. Cincinatti finished 15th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in rushing yards allowed per carry. Pittsburgh finished 3rd in rushing yards allowed, and 3rd in rushing yards allowed per carry. According to Football Outsiders, last year those teams finished ranked 21st, 12th, 13th, and 4th against the run (average rank: 12.5). In the draft, Pitt took two front-7 players with its first two picks, and Green Bay and Arizona added the best DTs in the draft in Justin Harrell and Alan Branch, while only Cincinattie failed to address its front 7 with first round players- so there's reason to expect improvement (or, at the very least, for the teams to maintain the status quo). That looks to me like an average schedule at best, (more likely a very, very slightly tougher-than-average schedule).
 
I see where you are coming from ssog.

But as far as stats go Ill chose a different parameter and say that fantasy point allowed...

They were #22, #27, and #29 (out of 32) to opposing offensives players. Pit being tied for #10.

Jacksons big finish did come with Holt hurt. But they lost their #3 (maybe replaced) and #4 WRs and Bruce isnt getting younger.

So Im comfortable in concluding that Jackson is the #1 player for playoff time. I think the team wants to lean on him.

 
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I have seen Edge go 3rd and 5th rounds in recent mocks. He could be a bargain there if the O-line is fixed in Arizona.

 
Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...
Emphasis mine.Last year, Steven Jackson had the 5th highest yards-from-scrimmage total... in NFL history. Expecting him to come anywhere NEAR those numbers again this year is, in my mind, very unrealistic- sort of like projecting Tomlinson for 25 TDs or whatever because he just so happened to play out of his mind last year.
Allow me to rephrase... by 'numbers that he can attain again this year' I was stating that it's possible for him to get to those numbers again - not projecting them altogether...If we set last year's numbers 90/2300/16 as his ceiling... adding to the fact that he's certainly not regressing (young - low mileage - knowing the league ever more) - I don't think it's a reach to predict 75/2000/12 for him... (don't you think those are realistic numbers to predict? - just asking)

Now, the question is, if you had the possibility of drafting either SJax, Westy, LJ or Gore (6pts/TD + 1pt/10yds + ppr)... I think he's the only one from that group that can EXCEL (75+/2000+/12+) in every scoring category and this is why I would choose him... Don't get me wrong, I would jump on the one that's left at 1.05 - it's nothing against the others... just stating that I would opt for SJax if I could choose...

 
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I have seen Edge go 3rd and 5th rounds in recent mocks. He could be a bargain there if the O-line is fixed in Arizona.
Edge in the 5th (as RB24 or so?) is an absolute bargain I would think...When you can get your RB3 (if your league starts 2) that has very good chance of getting over 300 rushes... even at a woeful 3.5 ypc average... a guy that can get a few 1YL punch-in here and there... you have to jump on him... just think that you are in the Cadillac / Jacobs / DeWilliams / Barber III / Lynch range - I'm certain Edge has less question marks than those guys this year...
 
Good observations about SJax... I placed him in a tiering of his own because of: his 90 receptions last year, his age:23 (low mileage) and the fact that he had over 2,300 yds last year and 16TDs - seems like numbers that he can attain this year again - a combo of number I don't think any of LJ, Westy and Gore can get to (yds/tds/recs)... but I wouldn't argue to death that he could lead the 2nd tiering with all these guys in it...
Emphasis mine.Last year, Steven Jackson had the 5th highest yards-from-scrimmage total... in NFL history. Expecting him to come anywhere NEAR those numbers again this year is, in my mind, very unrealistic- sort of like projecting Tomlinson for 25 TDs or whatever because he just so happened to play out of his mind last year.
Allow me to rephrase... by 'numbers that he can attain again this year' I was stating that it's possible for him to get to those numbers again - not projecting them altogether...If we set last year's numbers 90/2300/16 as his ceiling... adding to the fact that he's certainly not regressing (young - low mileage - knowing the league ever more) - I don't think it's a reach to predict 75/2000/12 for him... (don't you think those are realistic numbers to predict? - just asking)

Now, the question is, if you had the possibility of drafting either SJax, Westy, LJ or Gore (6pts/TD + 1pt/10yds + ppr)... I think he's the only one from that group that can EXCEL (75+/2000+/12+) in every scoring category and this is why I would choose him... Don't get me wrong, I would jump on the one that's left at 1.05 - it's nothing against the others... just stating that I would opt for SJax if I could choose...
Personally, I think those projections are just a hair high for my tastes (I'd probably project to 60/1800/12 or so), but I don't have any problems with them, either. Getting 2,000 yards from scrimmage is a relatively rare event that requires a lot of luck (since 2000, it's happened approximately three times per season), but it's not historically amazing like 2300 yards from scrimmage is. It's a reasonable projection, I just tend to project a little bit more conservatively.
 

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