RB Value in 2012...NOT DYNASTY (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

Several players who ended on IR in 2011 or had long injury periods may be values in 2011 because they will likely be top 10-15 talent available in the 2nd round or later because they didnt finish the season or finish the season as fantasy relevant.

Fred Jackson

Jammal Charles

DeMarco Murray

Darren McFadden

Ahmad Bradshaw

Who else?

And are they values or red flags?

You could also include Andre Johnson if we expanded to WRs...

 

[solorca]

Matt Forte and maybe Jahvid Best. Even Kevin Smith is a possibility that will probably be available really late and could payoff.

 

[zamboni]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

 

[mikel0254]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

What is the recovery timetable for Jackson's injury?Jackson was by far and away the better RB this year, and one of the best in the league before his injury. Spiller hasn't shown much since taking over. Unless you're talking about a split in order for Jackson to stay healthy, I don't see how Jackson isn't the bellcow again next year. His injury was not one of wear and tear.

 

[mikel0254]

Several players who ended on IR in 2011 or had long injury periods may be values in 2011 because they will likely be top 10-15 talent available in the 2nd round or later because they didnt finish the season or finish the season as fantasy relevant.Fred JacksonJammal CharlesDeMarco MurrayDarren McFaddenAhmad BradshawWho else?And are they values or red flags?You could also include Andre Johnson if we expanded to WRs...

Fred Jackson - typically I stay away from aging RB's, but given the lack of miles and incredible production pre-injury, I will be targeting this guy heavily next year. I think he regains the bellcow role next year as long as he's fully recovered from his leg injury. His age and injury should drop him to the 2nd at leastCharles - could be a steal in 2012 drafts. ACL's always scare drafters the next year so he should be available in the 2nd, and no Haley means they could finally start using him as they should.Murray - I don't think he will drop to the 2nd. New, young RB's always go early in drafts...especially one who blew up a couple games the year before. The only way I see him dropping to the 2nd is if the 1st round is very QB heavy.McFadden - Top 5 but injury history could drop his draft stock next year. I'm buying big time.Bradshaw - I'm staying away. Steadily dropped his YPC every year in the league and is now under 4YPC (he's at 3.8)Another back that could/will drop is B Wells. He's a boom/bust, but I think he'll be worth the risk.

 

[zamboni]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

What is the recovery timetable for Jackson's injury?Jackson was by far and away the better RB this year, and one of the best in the league before his injury. Spiller hasn't shown much since taking over. Unless you're talking about a split in order for Jackson to stay healthy, I don't see how Jackson isn't the bellcow again next year. His injury was not one of wear and tear.

Jackson should be fine within a few months, that's not the issue. The issue I see is that team brass wants to get Spiller more involved, and the injury to Jackson allowed it to happen.While Spiller hasn't been setting the world on fire, I think he's done enough to become a become a meaningful factor in the Bills' offensive plans going forward. Enough that is to keep Jackson from being a true, three-down bellcow.

 

[mikel0254]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

What is the recovery timetable for Jackson's injury?Jackson was by far and away the better RB this year, and one of the best in the league before his injury. Spiller hasn't shown much since taking over. Unless you're talking about a split in order for Jackson to stay healthy, I don't see how Jackson isn't the bellcow again next year. His injury was not one of wear and tear.

Jackson should be fine within a few months, that's not the issue. The issue I see is that team brass wants to get Spiller more involved, and the injury to Jackson allowed it to happen.While Spiller hasn't been setting the world on fire, I think he's done enough to become a become a meaningful factor in the Bills' offensive plans going forward. Enough that is to keep Jackson from being a true, three-down bellcow.

I took a look at their respective numbers. In the 9 full games Jackson played (not counting the game he was injured in), he averaged 102 yards rushing, 44 yards receiving, 5.6 YPC, and 0.66TD/game. Spiller in the 3 full games since Jackson's injury is averaging 61 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 4.1 YPC, and 0.33TD/game. Jackson doubled Spiller's production in the games they've both started. To me, Spiller hasn't done enough to warrant splitting carries next year. Almost every backup in the league can come in and average half of what the starter averages, and most can produce more than just half.While I tend to agree the owners would want to get an early 1st round pick more involved, I think they're much more interested in winning...and that happened when Jackson was a 3-down back, and Spiller was lining up as a WR and occasionally spelling Jackson. I think Spiller will get playing time, but I see it more like it was earlier on in the season when they tried to get him the ball in space and gimmick plays as opposed to splitting a meaningful amount of carries.

 

[FF Ninja]

Several players who ended on IR in 2011 or had long injury periods may be values in 2011 because they will likely be top 10-15 talent available in the 2nd round or later because they didnt finish the season or finish the season as fantasy relevant.Fred JacksonJammal CharlesDeMarco MurrayDarren McFaddenAhmad BradshawWho else?And are they values or red flags?You could also include Andre Johnson if we expanded to WRs...

Fred Jackson - typically I stay away from aging RB's, but given the lack of miles and incredible production pre-injury, I will be targeting this guy heavily next year. I think he regains the bellcow role next year as long as he's fully recovered from his leg injury. His age and injury should drop him to the 2nd at leastCharles - could be a steal in 2012 drafts. ACL's always scare drafters the next year so he should be available in the 2nd, and no Haley means they could finally start using him as they should.Murray - I don't think he will drop to the 2nd. New, young RB's always go early in drafts...especially one who blew up a couple games the year before. The only way I see him dropping to the 2nd is if the 1st round is very QB heavy.McFadden - Top 5 but injury history could drop his draft stock next year. I'm buying big time.Bradshaw - I'm staying away. Steadily dropped his YPC every year in the league and is now under 4YPC (he's at 3.8)Another back that could/will drop is B Wells. He's a boom/bust, but I think he'll be worth the risk.

Murray - I'd love to see someone waste a pick on Murray in the 1st or 2nd, but I can't see that happening. Especially if Felix does well to end the year.Charles - he'll be in a totally new offense (new coach). I guess it depends on his ADP, but I doubt he'll be on my squads next year if he's going in the 2nd. As a guy who makes his living off of speed, the ACL scare is legit.DMC - Lizfranc can be a serious injury. How serious his is has not been revealed, but I think we'll get a better idea in the offseason.I think Hillis is worth adding to this list. His stock is going to plummet. It will be interesting to see where he goes this offseason.

 

[mikel0254]

Several players who ended on IR in 2011 or had long injury periods may be values in 2011 because they will likely be top 10-15 talent available in the 2nd round or later because they didnt finish the season or finish the season as fantasy relevant.Fred JacksonJammal CharlesDeMarco MurrayDarren McFaddenAhmad BradshawWho else?And are they values or red flags?You could also include Andre Johnson if we expanded to WRs...

Fred Jackson - typically I stay away from aging RB's, but given the lack of miles and incredible production pre-injury, I will be targeting this guy heavily next year. I think he regains the bellcow role next year as long as he's fully recovered from his leg injury. His age and injury should drop him to the 2nd at leastCharles - could be a steal in 2012 drafts. ACL's always scare drafters the next year so he should be available in the 2nd, and no Haley means they could finally start using him as they should.Murray - I don't think he will drop to the 2nd. New, young RB's always go early in drafts...especially one who blew up a couple games the year before. The only way I see him dropping to the 2nd is if the 1st round is very QB heavy.McFadden - Top 5 but injury history could drop his draft stock next year. I'm buying big time.Bradshaw - I'm staying away. Steadily dropped his YPC every year in the league and is now under 4YPC (he's at 3.8)Another back that could/will drop is B Wells. He's a boom/bust, but I think he'll be worth the risk.

Murray - I'd love to see someone waste a pick on Murray in the 1st or 2nd, but I can't see that happening. Especially if Felix does well to end the year.Charles - he'll be in a totally new offense (new coach). I guess it depends on his ADP, but I doubt he'll be on my squads next year if he's going in the 2nd. As a guy who makes his living off of speed, the ACL scare is legit.DMC - Lizfranc can be a serious injury. How serious his is has not been revealed, but I think we'll get a better idea in the offseason.I think Hillis is worth adding to this list. His stock is going to plummet. It will be interesting to see where he goes this offseason.

Agree on Murray. I wouldn't be drafting him anywhere that early, but someone always drafts young RB's too soon, and Murray is a prime candidate for that next year. As for Charles, while ACL's are definitely legit, going down in week 2 means he'll have almost a full year to rehab. He might not be 100%, but he should be close, and might be worth a pick in the 2nd or 3rd as your RB2. And regarding the lisfranc for McFadden, the fact that he didn't need surgery is a good sign when very little info about it has come out. Like you said, we'll just have to wait and see what they come out with.

 

[Football Jones]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.

Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

 

[Shutout]

At the idea of drafting highly, I would avoid DeMarco Murray unless you are prepared to quickly turn around and secure Felix. There is NO way (yes, you can fire back at that all you want but be prepared to see it again in 9 months friends) that he comse back next year and is the guy all year. His M.O. has always been that he can not stay healthy. And he showed QUICKLY that while he has some flash, that in as little as a month after coming in and being the guy with fresh legs playing agianst the guys that were already wearing down, that he slowed down quickly too. He was not nearly as impressive in as little as 4 weeks after starting. In other words, he is a Felix clone and the Cowboys can run the exact same offense with both. All they have to do is play the healthy one (whoever that is from week to week). So it is simple to me: you need both or you need neither if your idea is to draft a guy that you are going to use as your every week RB next year.

Mcfadden: Big concern. Lisfranc is a killer in terms of time it takes to completely heal and get back to 100%. I will wager right now that he is not going to be able to go full speed without limitations when training camp starts. This will be a situation where no one really knows what DMAC will be in 2012 because he won't get the free run in camp or pre-season. Not saying he WON'T return to form; just saying its a headache best left to someone else and the track record shows he won't make it through the season next year either. With a full year under his belt and a training camp, Taiwan Jones is the guy you want to buy at value next year if Bush leaves.

My early guess for the guy that you may truly be abe to win a lottery on next year based on his draft spot will be Best. LeShoure's injury is a nasty one. They won't rush him back either (like DMAC). Smith will probably be kept and people will be thinking of what he ahs been able to do. Best will get bashed all off season about his concussion risk. But if there is one guy that you could pick up late and blast it through the year if he stays healthy, I like Best.

 

[thatguy]

Moreno is another name to add to the list. He should be available late and will definitely be worth a flier. He looked very good in the game he suffered his injury--as good as I've ever seen him look. It was terrible timing, as it looked like things might have finally been slowing down for him.

 

[zamboni]

Moreno is another name to add to the list. He should be available late and will definitely be worth a flier. He looked very good in the game he suffered his injury--as good as I've ever seen him look. It was terrible timing, as it looked like things might have finally been slowing down for him.

He's a guy I've been thinking of stashing, but he was quickly surpassed by McGahee this year. Not sure if he has what it takes to be a feature back in this league.

 

[zamboni]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

What is the recovery timetable for Jackson's injury?Jackson was by far and away the better RB this year, and one of the best in the league before his injury. Spiller hasn't shown much since taking over. Unless you're talking about a split in order for Jackson to stay healthy, I don't see how Jackson isn't the bellcow again next year. His injury was not one of wear and tear.

Jackson should be fine within a few months, that's not the issue. The issue I see is that team brass wants to get Spiller more involved, and the injury to Jackson allowed it to happen.While Spiller hasn't been setting the world on fire, I think he's done enough to become a become a meaningful factor in the Bills' offensive plans going forward. Enough that is to keep Jackson from being a true, three-down bellcow.

I took a look at their respective numbers. In the 9 full games Jackson played (not counting the game he was injured in), he averaged 102 yards rushing, 44 yards receiving, 5.6 YPC, and 0.66TD/game. Spiller in the 3 full games since Jackson's injury is averaging 61 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 4.1 YPC, and 0.33TD/game. Jackson doubled Spiller's production in the games they've both started. To me, Spiller hasn't done enough to warrant splitting carries next year. Almost every backup in the league can come in and average half of what the starter averages, and most can produce more than just half.While I tend to agree the owners would want to get an early 1st round pick more involved, I think they're much more interested in winning...and that happened when Jackson was a 3-down back, and Spiller was lining up as a WR and occasionally spelling Jackson. I think Spiller will get playing time, but I see it more like it was earlier on in the season when they tried to get him the ball in space and gimmick plays as opposed to splitting a meaningful amount of carries.

Maybe - time will tell and as a Jackson owner, I hope you're right. Spiller seems to be better suited in a Sproles type of role, but even that amount of usage will dip into Fred's production. I just think that Fred's injury came at a horrible time for him, both from suppressing the young buck and, of course, from his own contract situation.

 

[thatguy]

Moreno is another name to add to the list. He should be available late and will definitely be worth a flier. He looked very good in the game he suffered his injury--as good as I've ever seen him look. It was terrible timing, as it looked like things might have finally been slowing down for him.

He's a guy I've been thinking of stashing, but he was quickly surpassed by McGahee this year. Not sure if he has what it takes to be a feature back in this league.

I'm not sure either, but I could see him falling to the 10th round or later next season, and I think he is a solid flier pick at that point.

 

[Football Jones]

At the idea of drafting highly, I would avoid DeMarco Murray unless you are prepared to quickly turn around and secure Felix. There is NO way (yes, you can fire back at that all you want but be prepared to see it again in 9 months friends) that he comse back next year and is the guy all year. His M.O. has always been that he can not stay healthy. And he showed QUICKLY that while he has some flash, that in as little as a month after coming in and being the guy with fresh legs playing agianst the guys that were already wearing down, that he slowed down quickly too. He was not nearly as impressive in as little as 4 weeks after starting. In other words, he is a Felix clone and the Cowboys can run the exact same offense with both. All they have to do is play the healthy one (whoever that is from week to week). So it is simple to me: you need both or you need neither if your idea is to draft a guy that you are going to use as your every week RB next year.Mcfadden: Big concern. Lisfranc is a killer in terms of time it takes to completely heal and get back to 100%. I will wager right now that he is not going to be able to go full speed without limitations when training camp starts. This will be a situation where no one really knows what DMAC will be in 2012 because he won't get the free run in camp or pre-season. Not saying he WON'T return to form; just saying its a headache best left to someone else and the track record shows he won't make it through the season next year either. With a full year under his belt and a training camp, Taiwan Jones is the guy you want to buy at value next year if Bush leaves.My early guess for the guy that you may truly be abe to win a lottery on next year based on his draft spot will be Best. LeShoure's injury is a nasty one. They won't rush him back either (like DMAC). Smith will probably be kept and people will be thinking of what he ahs been able to do. Best will get bashed all off season about his concussion risk. But if there is one guy that you could pick up late and blast it through the year if he stays healthy, I like Best.

Murray only missed a few games in college. One game or so on average per year. The ankle injury he suffered last night could've happened to anybody.What people need to realize is how talented this kid is. If Murray wouldn't have gotten hurt last night, he would've had a HUGE game. And likely would've finished out the season very strong with Fiammetta back. In short, Felix is simply nowhere near the RB Murray is. Not even close. Like I said earlier, I really believe Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing. Not that he will, but I could see it happening with his talent/situation.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

 

[Football Jones]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

You do know Murray had 3,685 career rushing yards (4.86 YPC) with 50 TDs & 157 career receptions with 13 TDs in college, right? All while playing in a major conference.That said, it's all about using your eyeballs. Stats don't mean much of anything. I believe Murray is going to be a monster in that offense. We'll have to agree to disgaree, my friend.

 

[DevilDog919]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

You do know Murray had 3,685 career rushing yards (4.86 YPC) with 50 TDs & 157 career receptions with 13 TDs in college, right? All while playing in a major conference.That said, it's all about using your eyeballs. Stats don't mean much of anything. I believe Murray is going to be a monster in that offense. We'll have to agree to disgaree, my friend.

And I recall hearing broke some of ADP's school records...not bad for a glorified 3rd down back.

 

[mikel0254]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

That's exactly what I was talking about. It only takes one guy in your league and he won't make it out of the 1st. We can debate night and day about whether he will live up to his draft position, but this thread is about RB's who will slip in 2012 into the 2nd or 3rd that could produce top RB numbers, and I just don't see Murray slipping out of the 1st next year. Someone will have $$ in their eyes if Murray's there at the end of the 1st.

 

[jurb26]

One guy I haven't seen mentioned at all is Mikel Leshoure in Det. I guess he's simply out of sight and out of mind. He should be fully recovered from the Achilles injury and IMO he is exactly the type of RB that Det is missing. Should be a huge bargain in drafts and well worth the risk.

 

[mikel0254]

One guy I haven't seen mentioned at all is Mikel Leshoure in Det. I guess he's simply out of sight and out of mind. He should be fully recovered from the Achilles injury and IMO he is exactly the type of RB that Det is missing. Should be a huge bargain in drafts and well worth the risk.

Being a Detroit homer and a lifelong Lions fan, I sure hope you're right. That is the exact type of Rb we need, however Achilles injuries are devastating for RB's, and I'm not sure there's even one good example of a RB coming back from that type of injury and blowing up, let alone a track record of that. I think Detroit will be active in the FA market. I would be surprised if they went into next year with Best and Leshoure as their top 2 backs.

 

[jurb26]

One guy I haven't seen mentioned at all is Mikel Leshoure in Det. I guess he's simply out of sight and out of mind. He should be fully recovered from the Achilles injury and IMO he is exactly the type of RB that Det is missing. Should be a huge bargain in drafts and well worth the risk.

Being a Detroit homer and a lifelong Lions fan, I sure hope you're right. That is the exact type of Rb we need, however Achilles injuries are devastating for RB's, and I'm not sure there's even one good example of a RB coming back from that type of injury and blowing up, let alone a track record of that. I think Detroit will be active in the FA market. I would be surprised if they went into next year with Best and Leshoure as their top 2 backs.

You could be right. I think you will be able to draft Mikel very late though and he will cost virtually nothing.

 

[RavenLunatic]

McFadden is probably the best example right now of boom or bust for 2012 and will have many gun shy past owners or "i told you so" prognosticators who will let him slip.

Only question is if he comes back at all this year to refresh memories with his potential???

 

[mikel0254]

McFadden is probably the best example right now of boom or bust for 2012 and will have many gun shy past owners or "i told you so" prognosticators who will let him slip.Only question is if he comes back at all this year to refresh memories with his potential???

His injury history is becoming alarming, but you can't argue with the results on the field. Top 3 RB before he went down. I'd jump for joy if he's there in the 2nd or 3rd as a RB2.After realizing the number of RB's who could drop that are mentioned in this thread, I think I already know my draft strategy for next year. Take a stud QB in the 1st (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, whoever), then target two of these guys in the 2nd and 3rd. If I could walk away from the first 3 rounds with Brees, DMac, and Fred Jackson, I would be VERY happy.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

You do know Murray had 3,685 career rushing yards (4.86 YPC) with 50 TDs & 157 career receptions with 13 TDs in college, right? All while playing in a major conference.That said, it's all about using your eyeballs. Stats don't mean much of anything. I believe Murray is going to be a monster in that offense. We'll have to agree to disgaree, my friend.

And I recall hearing broke some of ADP's school records...not bad for a glorified 3rd down back.

Ooh, witty response, devildog! Let's look at those records he holds: all time touchdown leader - He played in 50 games in four seasons!! Adrian Peterson only played for 3 seasons, he missed 4 games his soph year with a high ankle sprain and he missed 7 games his junior year with a broken collarbone. receiving yards by a running back - see definition of a third down back (AP had 24 rec in 3 years).all purpose yards - (receiving yards + punt returns + kick returns)x 4 years = pointless recordSo yeah, good point. Those records are totally relevant. He must be better than Adrian Peterson.Football Jones,Demarco Murray averaged 4.1 ypc and 4.3 ypc his jr and sr seasons on a talented OU team. He is an average NFL running back. I'm pretty sure your eyeball test is sportscenter highlights. CJ Spiller can run through a gaping hole for 91 yards, too. That doesn't mean he deserves to be taken in the 1st round.

 

[mikel0254]

Big Fred Jackson fan, but I think his injury opened the door for Spiller to take on a true split in the workload next year.

What is the recovery timetable for Jackson's injury?Jackson was by far and away the better RB this year, and one of the best in the league before his injury. Spiller hasn't shown much since taking over. Unless you're talking about a split in order for Jackson to stay healthy, I don't see how Jackson isn't the bellcow again next year. His injury was not one of wear and tear.

Jackson should be fine within a few months, that's not the issue. The issue I see is that team brass wants to get Spiller more involved, and the injury to Jackson allowed it to happen.While Spiller hasn't been setting the world on fire, I think he's done enough to become a become a meaningful factor in the Bills' offensive plans going forward. Enough that is to keep Jackson from being a true, three-down bellcow.

I took a look at their respective numbers. In the 9 full games Jackson played (not counting the game he was injured in), he averaged 102 yards rushing, 44 yards receiving, 5.6 YPC, and 0.66TD/game. Spiller in the 3 full games since Jackson's injury is averaging 61 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 4.1 YPC, and 0.33TD/game. Jackson doubled Spiller's production in the games they've both started. To me, Spiller hasn't done enough to warrant splitting carries next year. Almost every backup in the league can come in and average half of what the starter averages, and most can produce more than just half.While I tend to agree the owners would want to get an early 1st round pick more involved, I think they're much more interested in winning...and that happened when Jackson was a 3-down back, and Spiller was lining up as a WR and occasionally spelling Jackson. I think Spiller will get playing time, but I see it more like it was earlier on in the season when they tried to get him the ball in space and gimmick plays as opposed to splitting a meaningful amount of carries.

Since writing this, Spiller has definitely up'd his game. He's put together 2 nice games in a row. Although I still think Jackson will be the starter next year, Spiller might be making a case for more carries. This could be bad from a FF standpoint if there's a more even split in carries/receptions. Hopefully either Jackson or Spiller gets most of the touches, but it's hard for me to see that right now. I see a RBBC...Interested to hear other opinions on how the BUF backfield will play out in 2012.

 

[duaneok66]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

You do know Murray had 3,685 career rushing yards (4.86 YPC) with 50 TDs & 157 career receptions with 13 TDs in college, right? All while playing in a major conference.That said, it's all about using your eyeballs. Stats don't mean much of anything. I believe Murray is going to be a monster in that offense. We'll have to agree to disgaree, my friend.

And I recall hearing broke some of ADP's school records...not bad for a glorified 3rd down back.

Ooh, witty response, devildog! Let's look at those records he holds: all time touchdown leader - He played in 50 games in four seasons!! Adrian Peterson only played for 3 seasons, he missed 4 games his soph year with a high ankle sprain and he missed 7 games his junior year with a broken collarbone. receiving yards by a running back - see definition of a third down back (AP had 24 rec in 3 years).all purpose yards - (receiving yards + punt returns + kick returns)x 4 years = pointless recordSo yeah, good point. Those records are totally relevant. He must be better than Adrian Peterson.Football Jones,Demarco Murray averaged 4.1 ypc and 4.3 ypc his jr and sr seasons on a talented OU team. He is an average NFL running back. I'm pretty sure your eyeball test is sportscenter highlights. CJ Spiller can run through a gaping hole for 91 yards, too. That doesn't mean he deserves to be taken in the 1st round.

outstanding post.

 

[Abraham]

1. Foster

2. McCoy

3. Rice

4. Murray

5. Jones drew

6. Richardson

7. Lynch

8. C. Johnson

9. F Jackson

10. Wells

 

[duaneok66]

How is Murray #4 ??

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

what is fred jacksons contract status? is he a FA of any type? They wont pay him. Spiller is more than capable and will only get better.

 

[Abraham]

How is Murray #4 ??

I think he will finish 4th next year in standard scoring.

 

[duaneok66]

I don't think he will get enough carries to get in the top 10, much less #4 . . .

 

[mikel0254]

what is fred jacksons contract status? is he a FA of any type? They wont pay him. Spiller is more than capable and will only get better.

He's signed through 2012. Going to make $1.83M next year. He was hoping to get a new contract to give him a couple more years and more money. The Bills front office said they were going to work to get him a new contract, but that was before his injury. Spiller will only cost them $850K next year, so they have both signed for less than $3M.

 

[butcher boy]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray5. Jones drew 6. Richardson 7. Lynch8. C. Johnson9. F Jackson10. Wells

Way too high for Lynch. Too many question marks for me to draft him in the first round.

 

[duaneok66]

Lynch is a safer bet than Murray.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

what is fred jacksons contract status? is he a FA of any type? They wont pay him. Spiller is more than capable and will only get better.

He's signed through 2012. Going to make $1.83M next year. He was hoping to get a new contract to give him a couple more years and more money. The Bills front office said they were going to work to get him a new contract, but that was before his injury. Spiller will only cost them $850K next year, so they have both signed for less than $3M.

more of the same next year then. Fjax as lead dog, spiller eating into his value a little bit , injury looms large

 

[Grahamburn]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray5. Jones drew 6. Richardson 7. Lynch8. C. Johnson9. F Jackson10. Wells

Way too high for Lynch. Too many question marks for me to draft him in the first round.

What are the question marks?

 

[Hendo]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray5. Jones drew 6. Richardson 7. Lynch8. C. Johnson9. F Jackson10. Wells

Give me Ryan Mathews over every one of those guys with the exception of Foster/Rice/McCoy/Jones-Drew. And i have serious doubt Richardson will be a top 6 RB off the get go, Murray placed way way too high.

 

[cvnpoka]

where is forte in this discussion?

 

[Hendo]

where is forte in this discussion?

this too

 

[Hendo]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray (huh) 5. Jones drew 6. Richardson (nope) 7. Lynch (nope) 8. C. Johnson (hell no) 9. F Jackson (sorry no) 10. Wells (wtf?)

 

[dmac37]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray5. Jones drew 6. Richardson 7. Lynch8. C. Johnson9. F Jackson10. Wells

I'm thinking that AD and modern medicine makes a statement and he will disrupt up the apple cart, just a hunch.

 

[FantasyTrader]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray (huh) 5. Jones drew 6. Richardson (nope) 7. Lynch (nope) 8. C. Johnson (hell no) 9. F Jackson (sorry no) 10. Wells (wtf?)

You do realize that on average, half of the top 10 RB's in any given year will NOT repeat in the top 10 the following year? Interesting that every RB on Abraham's list other than those finishing in the top 10 this year - you find them laughable. But this is generally how it goes. Prior to this year - Sproles, Lynch and Reggie Bush would have been laughable as top 10 RB predictions yet there they are.

 

[RavenLunatic]

I think the emergence of RBBC by design (not out of mediocrity im the past) and the revolving door created by uearly injuries has RBs performing just like WRs. The weekly Saints RB production is unpredictable just like their WRs. Carolina model, etc.

We just have to all accept a lower ppg from most RBs as some weeks there will be explosions and in other weeks it may be pedestrian.

 

[Football Jones]

I think Murray has the potential to lead the league in rushing next season. Tony Fiammetta makes a big difference at FB in their run game & that sets up their passing offense nicely. Murray has mad rushing/receiving skills. Felix will be what he is...a nice COP & backup RB. 8-10 touches for Felix, 20+ for Murray, along with their passing game will make the Cowboys a tough offense to deal with.Hillis could be a big surprise next season. I'd love to see him get out of Cleveland. The dude has a ton of talent.

I guess this is the guy mikel0254 was talking about. It only takes one out of twelve. I hope there is one in my league. Murray is a 3rd down back with a bit of speed who got hot for a brief stretch. Nothing more. He was a glorified 3rd down back at OU. I was never impressed watching him. I always expected more, but it never came. I suspect he is the classic case of fools gold, but I guess we'll see. That offense is ridiculous. Any average back who gets 15 carries + 3 catches will put up numbers. Should they sign a bruiser like Michael Bush or Hillis, it will be game on for 15+ touchdowns. They'll probably decide to go RBBC with their pair of skat backs.

You do know Murray had 3,685 career rushing yards (4.86 YPC) with 50 TDs & 157 career receptions with 13 TDs in college, right? All while playing in a major conference.That said, it's all about using your eyeballs. Stats don't mean much of anything. I believe Murray is going to be a monster in that offense. We'll have to agree to disgaree, my friend.

And I recall hearing broke some of ADP's school records...not bad for a glorified 3rd down back.

Ooh, witty response, devildog! Let's look at those records he holds: all time touchdown leader - He played in 50 games in four seasons!! Adrian Peterson only played for 3 seasons, he missed 4 games his soph year with a high ankle sprain and he missed 7 games his junior year with a broken collarbone. receiving yards by a running back - see definition of a third down back (AP had 24 rec in 3 years).all purpose yards - (receiving yards + punt returns + kick returns)x 4 years = pointless recordSo yeah, good point. Those records are totally relevant. He must be better than Adrian Peterson.Football Jones,Demarco Murray averaged 4.1 ypc and 4.3 ypc his jr and sr seasons on a talented OU team. He is an average NFL running back. I'm pretty sure your eyeball test is sportscenter highlights. CJ Spiller can run through a gaping hole for 91 yards, too. That doesn't mean he deserves to be taken in the 1st round.

Scouting by YPC is the single worst thing you can do in FF. BTW, I've probably seen Murray as much or more than anybody on this board.He's a legit talent & I like his chances. Murray has the ability to be a big-time FF RB given his ability/situation (Dallas' feature back).

 

[Abraham]

1. Foster2. McCoy3. Rice4. Murray5. Jones drew 6. Richardson 7. Lynch8. C. Johnson9. F Jackson10. Wells

Give me Ryan Mathews over every one of those guys with the exception of Foster/Rice/McCoy/Jones-Drew. And i have serious doubt Richardson will be a top 6 RB off the get go, Murray placed way way too high.

 

[Abraham]

As a note I think Peterson is top 15