RBs expected to get over 70% of their team's RB touches (1 Viewer)

[lazyike]

Probably a silly list but barring injury I wanted to see who some of you experts think belong on this list. I used 70% because it suggests somewhat of a bell cow situation. These touches include the RB rushes and RB receptions. I've bolded the top PPR backs Here's my list:

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

Lynch

McFadden

Forte

Turner

Murray

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Bradshaw

Gore?

Greene

Wells?

MaGahee?

BJGE

Starks

Some of those I didn't include that won't get 70%:

Charles

F Jax

Sproles

Blount

R Bush

Ridley

Helu

 

[TheJewru]

Gore, Bradshaw no shot

Forte, Murray, Starks, doubtful

Sjax possibly not

BJGE possibly

 

[Mark Wimer]

Probably a silly list but barring injury I wanted to see who some of you experts think belong on this list. I used 70% because it suggests somewhat of a bell cow situation. These touches include the RB rushes and RB receptions. I've bolded the top PPR backs Here's my list:

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

Lynch

McFadden

Forte

Turner

Murray

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Bradshaw

Gore?

Greene

Wells?

MaGahee?

BJGE

Starks

Some of those I didn't include:

Charles

F Jax

Sproles

Blount

R Bush

Ridley

Helu

I struck through the backs I didn't think would get 70%Top 7 on your list look pretty solid as bets for 70+%

Forte is holding out while Michael Bush earns the top job in Chicago's new offense - maybe a 50ish-50ish split there as best case for Forte, but downside is worse

Adrian Peterson is coming off a severe knee injury and the training staff isn't thrilled with the notion of him starting in September. I think it is week 9 or so before he is handling a large majority of touches for that team (and the Vikings' offense isn't very scary even with Peterson)

Bradshaw - David Wilson in the Brandon Jacobs role now. Bradshaw won't clear 70% threshold

Gore - losing touches to Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James - won't clear 70% threshold

Wells - Ryan Williams may end up being the starter here if his explosive speed has survived knee surgery/rehab - Wells is also rehabbing a knee - 50ish-50ish split a real possibility here if Williams doesn't win outright

Starks has a lot to prove - Alex Green may be in a big support role there and John Kuhn siphons off scoring touches/chances

Charles, Sproles and Fred Jackson are all in committee situations - none will cross your 70% threshold

Blount is short-yardage/plunge guy for TB now (best case)

Reggie Bush - MAYBE, if he can play through pain again this year

Ridley - Vereen, Woodhead, some vulturing from Addai

Helu - Hightower, Royster, whoever else the Shanahans throw into their RBBC mix by September

 

[Officer Krieg]

Didn't see Chris Johnson on your list. I think he's a safe bet for clearing the 70% mark.

 

[lazyike]

Didn't see Chris Johnson on your list. I think he's a safe bet for clearing the 70% mark.

Your right I missed him. As for AP I saw a video clip of him sprinting up hill and I think he will be getting the lions share by week 3. The Bears are talking up Fortes injury to keep other teams from making offers but he may not make that threshhold with Bush in the mix. If Thomas can stay healthy I think he will keep R Bush's touches down somewhat. I could also agree that Bradshaw may not get 70%

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think Forte or Murray will. Conversely, I think BJGE gets it.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

looking at this list and participating in mock drafts it appears that Shonn Greene is underrated. He plays behind an OL that had 3 AFC pro bowlers last year. I believe he's in his contract year. The Jets hired Tony Sparano who loves the run. His competition is Joe McKnight who is really more of a KR/3rd down back. They drafted Terrence Ganaway in rd 6 who might not be game-day active. Obviously the Jets aren't a fantasy powerhouse but after the first couple tiers of RB are gone, Greene is in line to get alot of touches.

why would trent richardson for example have more production than Greene? Just pure talent? I could see that but these guys seem to be in similar situations. JMO.

 

[jurb26]

Here are the guys I think will;

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

McFadden

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Maybe that seems low, but I just don't think that many RBs will reach that 70% range. Several of these guys probably won't because of injuries but I won't predict those.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

i'm still awaiting the player spotlight on james starks. very interesting

 

[matttyl]

Here are the guys I think will;

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

McFadden

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Maybe that seems low, but I just don't think that many RBs will reach that 70% range. Several of these guys probably won't because of injuries but I won't predict those.

Maybe that seems LOW?! That's damn HIGH!!2011-

Foster (injury)

McCoy - 60.7%

Rice - 63.4%

MJD - 70.1%

Peterson - 46.4%

S Jax - 63.6%

I mean, are we counting QB rushing attempts and WR rushing attempts?

 

[valhallan]

Why wouldn't Lynch?

 

[jurb26]

Here are the guys I think will;

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

McFadden

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Maybe that seems low, but I just don't think that many RBs will reach that 70% range. Several of these guys probably won't because of injuries but I won't predict those.

Maybe that seems LOW?! That's damn HIGH!!2011-

Foster (injury)

McCoy - 60.7%

Rice - 63.4%

MJD - 70.1%

Peterson - 46.4%

S Jax - 63.6%

I mean, are we counting QB rushing attempts and WR rushing attempts?

This isn't just rushes, it's touches. Several of these guys would have been there if healthy. Foster, Peterson and Jackson. Rice did have 71% when you include receptions and McCoy had 80%.Again, several of these guys won't do it because of injuries. I think the guys I listed are the only ones with the potential to do it.

To the last question, no we are not including QB or WR rushes. The questions was who would get 70% or better of the RB TOUCHES.

 

[zamboni]

Actually wouldn't rule out Donald Brown if both he and Delone Carter show that last year wasn't a fluke - Brown in a good way and Carter in a bad way.

 

[lbouchard]

I doubt BJGE gets 70 percent

 

[az_prof]

Actually wouldn't rule out Donald Brown if both he and Delone Carter show that last year wasn't a fluke - Brown in a good way and Carter in a bad way.

Agreed. Brown is the most talented back in that offense by a mile and it is hard to see how Carter or a fifth round draft pick (Ballard), both of whom appear to be plodders, would take a large share of the carries.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Forte is holding out while Michael Bush earns the top job in Chicago's new offense - maybe a 50ish-50ish split there as best case for Forte, but downside is worse

BEST case????? Come on, that is just a silly statement.I could see a RBBC in Chicago, but to say Forte's BEST case is 50/50 is absurd.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I don't think Forte or Murray will. Conversely, I think BJGE gets it.

The Bengals sure have Bernard Scott convinced that it's going to be close to a 50/50 split.

 

[lazyike]

Here are the guys I think will;

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

McFadden

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Maybe that seems low, but I just don't think that many RBs will reach that 70% range. Several of these guys probably won't because of injuries but I won't predict those.

Maybe that seems LOW?! That's damn HIGH!!2011-

Foster (injury)

McCoy - 60.7%

Rice - 63.4%

MJD - 70.1%

Peterson - 46.4%

S Jax - 63.6%

I mean, are we counting QB rushing attempts and WR rushing attempts?

I was not counting QB or WR rushes and am including the receptions by RBs. While I haven't figured the math so precisely I think the %'s need to be higher with that in mind on your list.

 

[lazyike]

Actually wouldn't rule out Donald Brown if both he and Delone Carter show that last year wasn't a fluke - Brown in a good way and Carter in a bad way.

I agree the opportunity is here with Brown and Martin thinking they could be a steal where they are being drafted in mocks.

 

[johnadams]

This isn't so much about a magical 70% threshold and more about who comes closest to the prototypical workhorse back.

Using OPs list:

McCoy: Vey likely. Heavily involved in run and pass, legit red zone player. Depth is suspect.

Foster: Tate is a very real talent and we could easily see two 1000 rushers by year end. I actually don't think he'll get in the 70% range, but will still get enough overall touches/production to be a top five back.

Rice: Basically, very similar situation to McCoy.

MJD: Similar to McCoy and Rice.

Mathews: Only thing standing in his way is the injury bugaboo.

Lynch: Very possible. Another case where the depth just isn't strong enough to force a full blown RBBC.

McFadden: Depends on whether OAK decides to move him into more of a Charles role in the hopes of keeping him healthy.

Forte: If he signs, then I think it's likely. Bush is a competent RB, but Forte is the straw that stirs CHI.

Turner: In rushes, yes, but add receptions, no.

Murray: Health will be a big key. If he starts slow, Felix will get a shot at stealing more carrries as well.

AP: Not coming off the injury that he is.

Richardson: Yes. Injury is the ONLY thing that will stand in his way.

S Jax: I'm on the fence. I think a healthy SJax is a much better option that Pead and Fisher has shown he'll give workhorse loads before. In redraft, SJax is my top underrated player, so I think he will.

Bradshaw: Has never done it and I doubt it happens now.

Gore: Steadily declining production in passing game means he's more like Turner than SJax.

Greene: Intriguing possibility, but his lack of involvement in the passing game (as well as his average skills) limits his touches.

Wells: No read. Williams is back, but Wells showed really well in spots last year.

MaGahee: Not a chance.

BJGE: Perhaps, but I just don't think he's dynamic enough to get a large portion of carries.

Starks: Doesn't seem likely, but it's a brand new game in GB backfield, so maybe.

Charles: With new coaching staff, might have gotten there, but the addition of Hillis, a very good back himself, casts doubt.

F Jax: Like Foster, I think he'll be very productive despite sharing the load.

Sproles: No.

Blount: No.

R Bush: Another intersting possibilty that represents value, but Thomas should be better in his second year.

Ridley: NE backfield too hard to call, but Vereen would be the guy if he can separate.

Helu: It's Shanny.

Chris Johnson: Yes.

 

[glock]

Fred Jackson?

 

[N Zone]

MJD is the only player that did it last year, for rushing.

The list below ranks the tailbacks who handled the biggest share of their team's rushing load in 2011. As mentioned above, Gore ranked fifth overall in total rushes.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

343/489, 70 percent

2. Chris Johnson, Titans

262/376, 69 percent

3. Michael Turner, Falcons

301/453, 66 percent

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

285/444, 64 percent

5. Steven Jackson, Rams

260/409, 64 percent

6. Ray Rice, Ravens

291, 459, 63 percent

7. Beanie Wells, Cardinals

245/389, 63 percent

8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles

273/450, 61 percent

9. Cedric Benson, Bengals

273/455, 60 percent

10. Shonn Greene, Jets

253/443, 57 percent

11. Frank Gore, 49ers

282/498, 57 percent

12. Michael Bush, Raiders

256/466, 54 percent

13. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers

184/346, 53 percent

14. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers

228/434, 52 percent

15. Ryan Matthews, Chargers

222/436, 50 percent

16. Arian Foster, Texans

278/546, 50 percent

17. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

208/448, 46 percent

18. Reggie Bush, Dolphins

217/469, 46 percent

19. Willis McGahee, Broncos

249/546, 45 percent

20. Matt Forte, Bears

203/456, 45 percent

21. Fred Jackson, Bills

170/391, 43 percent

22. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

171/411, 42 percent

23. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

181/438, 41 percent

24. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys

164/408, 40 percent

25. Peyton Hillis, Browns

161/415, 38 percent

26. Roy Helu, Redskins

151/400, 38 percent

27. Donald Brown, Colts

134/382, 35 percent

28. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers

155/445, 35 percent

29. Ryan Grant, Packers

134/395, 34 percent

30. Mark Ingram, Saints

122/431, 28 percent

31. Thomas Jones

153/487, 31 percent

32. Jahvid Best, Lions

84/356, 24 percent

********************************

source: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/06/49ers-game-plan-keep-gore-fresh-for-playoff-run.html

 

[lazyike]

MJD is the only player that did it last year, for rushing.

The list below ranks the tailbacks who handled the biggest share of their team's rushing load in 2011. As mentioned above, Gore ranked fifth overall in total rushes.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

343/489, 70 percent

2. Chris Johnson, Titans

262/376, 69 percent

3. Michael Turner, Falcons

301/453, 66 percent

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

285/444, 64 percent

5. Steven Jackson, Rams

260/409, 64 percent

6. Ray Rice, Ravens

291, 459, 63 percent

7. Beanie Wells, Cardinals

245/389, 63 percent

8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles

273/450, 61 percent

9. Cedric Benson, Bengals

273/455, 60 percent

10. Shonn Greene, Jets

253/443, 57 percent

11. Frank Gore, 49ers

282/498, 57 percent

12. Michael Bush, Raiders

256/466, 54 percent

13. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers

184/346, 53 percent

14. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers

228/434, 52 percent

15. Ryan Matthews, Chargers

222/436, 50 percent

16. Arian Foster, Texans

278/546, 50 percent

17. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

208/448, 46 percent

18. Reggie Bush, Dolphins

217/469, 46 percent

19. Willis McGahee, Broncos

249/546, 45 percent

20. Matt Forte, Bears

203/456, 45 percent

21. Fred Jackson, Bills

170/391, 43 percent

22. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

171/411, 42 percent

23. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

181/438, 41 percent

24. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys

164/408, 40 percent

25. Peyton Hillis, Browns

161/415, 38 percent

26. Roy Helu, Redskins

151/400, 38 percent

27. Donald Brown, Colts

134/382, 35 percent

28. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers

155/445, 35 percent

29. Ryan Grant, Packers

134/395, 34 percent

30. Mark Ingram, Saints

122/431, 28 percent

31. Thomas Jones

153/487, 31 percent

32. Jahvid Best, Lions

84/356, 24 percent

********************************

source: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/06/49ers-game-plan-keep-gore-fresh-for-playoff-run.html

Again I'll say this is about the total touches including receptions by only the RBs. Again don't include rushes by QBs and WRs. Receptions obviously are important in PPR leagues which happens to be the only type of leagues I play in

 

[lazyike]

Fred Jackson?

I disagree-Jackson is 31 and has Spiller to deal with who looked pretty good when Jackson went down

 

[Lash]

Here are the guys I think will;

McCoy

Foster

Rice

MJD

Mathews

McFadden

AP

Richardson

S Jax

Maybe that seems low, but I just don't think that many RBs will reach that 70% range. Several of these guys probably won't because of injuries but I won't predict those.

Maybe that seems LOW?! That's damn HIGH!!2011-

Foster (injury)

McCoy - 60.7%

Rice - 63.4%

MJD - 70.1%

Peterson - 46.4%

S Jax - 63.6%

I mean, are we counting QB rushing attempts and WR rushing attempts?

This isn't just rushes, it's touches. Several of these guys would have been there if healthy. Foster, Peterson and Jackson. Rice did have 71% when you include receptions and McCoy had 80%.Again, several of these guys won't do it because of injuries. I think the guys I listed are the only ones with the potential to do it.

To the last question, no we are not including QB or WR rushes. The questions was who would get 70% or better of the RB TOUCHES.

maybe a better gauge is to go back to last year and just get the percentages in the games played

 

[Captain Hook]

I don't think Forte or Murray will. Conversely, I think BJGE gets it.

The Bengals sure have Bernard Scott convinced that it's going to be close to a 50/50 split.

That is crap - the Bengals are saying it will be a committee with BJGE, Scott, and Brian Leonardso I don't see how BJGE gets 70% or Scott gets 50%

 

[Chazzhawk]

Probably a silly list but barring injury I wanted to see who some of you experts think belong on this list. I used 70% because it suggests somewhat of a bell cow situation. These touches include the RB rushes and RB receptions. I've bolded the top PPR backs Here's my list:

McCoy - A beast easy yes

Foster - No because of Tate, he will still produce like a guy getting that many touches though.

Rice - Same as Mccoy

MJD - Should but we will see with the holdout

Mathews - Yes, unless he shows he can't shake those small injuries that got him parts of his first 2 years

Lynch- Yes

McFadden - No because he has never played more than 13 games in a season, and if you count the 20 percent of touches that all rb's lose, plus the few games he misses he will be closer to 50 percent

Forte - No, the holdout and Bush

Turner - No, he broke down last year, and Atlanta has already said it will be more of a RBBC between him, Rodgers, and Snelling. 50% tops

Murray - This is probably the hardest one, I will say yes because he looked so good when he was healthy last year.

AP - Yes, I think he is just a freak of nature.

Richardson - Yes, I know he is a rookie but the rest of the backs on the team sucks.

S Jax - No, I don't think he will stay healthy

Bradshaw Never, his ankles couldn't handle it

Gore? No there is too many backs there that will get touches

Greene - Yes, because Mcknight is at best a third down back

Wells? - No I think he breaks down again and I think Williams gets 20 to 25 percent of the touches even if he is healthy

MaGahee? - Yes, Hillman won't get alot of reps and Ball will be 3rd down, and Moreno might as well pack his bags

BJGE - No, Scott will get 5 to 10 touches, they love Leonard, and Herron will get a few reps

Starks - No, Green is back, Grant might come back, Kuhn is still going to be the goaline back and they just don't run the ball enough

Chris Johnson - Yes

Some of those I didn't include that won't get 70%:

Charles No because his game is based on speed and cutting, you don't get that part of your legs back until year 2 after an ACL injury

F Jax No he is 31 or 32, and Spiller showed alot last year.

Sproles No, he is on the Saints

Blount No, you don't draft a running back in the first round and not give them touches, plus he can't catch the ball and he fumbles

R Bush No, Thomas and Miller are going to get touches

Ridley - No, same reason as the Saints

Helu No, because Shanahan is going to play the hot hand, I expect Helu, Hightower, and Royster to have over 400 yards this year

 

[Noah Davis]

looking at this list and participating in mock drafts it appears that Shonn Greene is underrated. He plays behind an OL that had 3 AFC pro bowlers last year. I believe he's in his contract year. The Jets hired Tony Sparano who loves the run. His competition is Joe McKnight who is really more of a KR/3rd down back. They drafted Terrence Ganaway in rd 6 who might not be game-day active. Obviously the Jets aren't a fantasy powerhouse but after the first couple tiers of RB are gone, Greene is in line to get alot of touches. why would trent richardson for example have more production than Greene? Just pure talent? I could see that but these guys seem to be in similar situations. JMO.

What about Bilal Powell....he is in the mix albeit a long shot.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Didn't see Chris Johnson on your list. I think he's a safe bet for clearing the 70% mark.

Your right I missed him. As for AP I saw a video clip of him sprinting up hill and I think he will be getting the lions share by week 3. The Bears are talking up Fortes injury to keep other teams from making offers but he may not make that threshhold with Bush in the mix. If Thomas can stay healthy I think he will keep R Bush's touches down somewhat. I could also agree that Bradshaw may not get 70%

Running in a straight line uphill or downhill isn't what we should be looking for. From everything I've read, he's yet to cut at all. His knee, and his availability to play has more to do with being able to cut and juke rather than running in a straight line.The earliest I see Peterson taking over the lionshare of the carries is at the midpoint of the season, although I don't think we see the real Peterson until 2013.

 

[kutta]

Didn't see Chris Johnson on your list. I think he's a safe bet for clearing the 70% mark.

Your right I missed him. As for AP I saw a video clip of him sprinting up hill and I think he will be getting the lions share by week 3. The Bears are talking up Fortes injury to keep other teams from making offers but he may not make that threshhold with Bush in the mix. If Thomas can stay healthy I think he will keep R Bush's touches down somewhat. I could also agree that Bradshaw may not get 70%

Running in a straight line uphill or downhill isn't what we should be looking for. From everything I've read, he's yet to cut at all. His knee, and his availability to play has more to do with being able to cut and juke rather than running in a straight line.The earliest I see Peterson taking over the lionshare of the carries is at the midpoint of the season, although I don't think we see the real Peterson until 2013.

From RotoWorld on June 20th:Adrian Peterson revealed to reporters Wednesday that he's now "wide open" when it comes to making cuts on his reconstructed left knee."Wide open" means A.P. has opened it up and is making cuts as he pleases. While Peterson concedes he's still "rebuilding strength," he says the cutting is coming along "well" and his recovery remains tremendously ahead of schedule.

 

[Crazy Tony]

You seemed to have forgotten Jahvid Best.

J/K.

 

[fightingillini]

To me, 70% of the total RB touches is irrelevant. What really matters are

1) Will the RB touch the ball 300+ times?

2) Will the RB catch 35+ passes?

3) Will the RB get more the 70% of the redzone/goalline carries?

The RBs that will be expected to satisfy all 3 of these criteria are (assuming no injuries)

Foster, Rice, McCoy, MJD, Mathews, McFadden, Richardson, Lynch, C Johnson, Peterson, S Jackson.

Forte should get 1 and 2 but I see Bush as the goalline back.

Turner won't catch 35+ passes. Same for BJGE.

Murray isn't a lock for any of the three.

Bradshaw isn't a lock for 1 or 3. Same for Gore.

I don't see Wells getting 300+ touches with Ryan Williams in the mix, and he's not a big receiver.

Sproles won't get 1 or 3, but he's so valuable in PPR leagues anyway.

Greene may get 1 and that's it.

So 12 backs are what I would call bell-cow backs. And 1/2 still have big question marks due to injury concerns.

 

[The_Wolfman]

Forte is holding out while Michael Bush earns the top job in Chicago's new offense - maybe a 50ish-50ish split there as best case for Forte, but downside is worse

BEST case????? Come on, that is just a silly statement.I could see a RBBC in Chicago, but to say Forte's BEST case is 50/50 is absurd.

Agreed - people are really sleeping on Forte. It's hard to say how his contract situation will play out but the most likely scenario is he misses some camp and ultimately signs his franchise tender. I'd be surprised to see the Bears sign him to a long-term deal unless Forte lowers his asking price.I like Michael Bush, but a healthy Forte with a chip on his shoulder, playing for a long-term contract from some team (not even necessarily the Bears) is going to want the ball and the Bears have every reason to give it to him if he's healthy. Bush will most likely end up as a goal-line and change of pace back.