Here's my top 15, with explanations and last year's stats next to their names. It's important to point out that these aren't so much where I would draft them or even where I think they'll finish overall, but rather just my rankings based on comfort level and who I'd want on my team more than the next guy.
-----TIER 1: PLATINUM BACKS-----
01. Peterson, Adrian, RB, MIN [1341 YDS - 12 TDS]
- Minnesota's OLine is so sick and this kid is so talented that I feel like we might be in year-1 of ADP dominating the top draft spot for the next five or so years.
02. Tomlinson, Ladanian, RB, SD [1474 YDS - 15 TDS]
- By LT standards, last season might've been a disappointment, but he's still as sure a thing as there is in fantasy football. I take him here for peace of mind that I'll have a RB1 putting up RB1 numbers, regardless of where he finishes overall.
-----TIER 2: PURE GOLD-----
03. Addai, Joseph, RB, IND [1072 YDS - 12 TDS]
- Harrison is getting up there in age and becoming less and less of a redzone option, plus the Colts are going to be hungry this year. I don't expect him to finish first overall, but it's not out of the quesiton. Either way, he's a safe pick with low risk.
04. Portis, Clinton, RB, WAS [1262 YDS - 11 TDS]
- I REALLLLLY wanted to rank MB3 above Portis and kept flip-flopping between the two, but when push came to shove I still just felt safer with Portis despite his injury history. He (and the oline) seems to be healthy now, the WAS coaching staff is talking about using him even more this season, and all in all he's a pretty safe bet to produce similar to better than last year.
05. Barber, Marion, RB, DAL [975 YDS - 10 TDS]
- BUT, that said, what's NOT to like about MB3?! After a couple seasons of proving he's the better back than Jones, Barber is finally set to be the starter now. I'm probably ranking him a little higher here than most, but I really feel he's top-5 this year. He had good numbers last year with Julius cutting into his time, but can he carry the load? That's the only question mark and honestly, I'm not too concerned about it. I think he can and will.
06. Jackson, Steven, RB, STL [1002 YDS - 5 TDS]
- At one point I had Jackson at #3, but the more I looked at Portis, Addai and Barber the more I liked them. So SJ slips to #6 by no fault of his own. If healthy there's no reason he can't finish top-5 considering that he's the main option on that offense now. If STL somehow ended up with Jake Long at the two-spot then I'll find myself liking Jackson even more.
-----TIER 3: SOLID/RELIABLE-----
07. Westbrook, Brian, RB, PHI [1333 YDS - 7 TDS]
- Westbrook's a good all-purpose back, and definitely exceeded expectations last year. That said though, I get squeamish at the thought of having to rely on him to repeat that success. He has a history of injury and isn't getting any younger. All in all, he just scares me but I couldn't let him slip any further than 7th due to his performance last year and his upside this year. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see him finish top-3 again, but closer to top-10 wouldn't shock me either. I have him this low due to that potential gap in where he COULD finish. Not as much of a sure thing as the guys above him in my mind.
08. Lewis, Jamal, RB, CLE [1304 YDS - 9 TDS]
- Last year Jamal surprised a lot of owners. Personally though, I'm in Cleveland and was expecting pretty much what we got out of him. It's easy to look at his year-end stats and be impressed, but we have to remember how awful his average yards per carry were for the first half of the season. That said though, he IS the starting RB and goalline RB on a strong offense and his team made a commitment to him this offseason. Last year he managed to outperform his ADP by scoring touchdowns, this year I think TDs will be what helps him just reach his ADP. All in all, I see a similar season to last year, but would set expectations with him as modestly-opptimistic. With the improvements to the defense and the O-line that the Browns made this offseason I'd think that an increase in his production isn't out of the question. He's this high on my list more for his situation than what he brings to the table.
09. McGahee,Willis, RB, BAL [1207 YDS - 7 TDS]
- Last year he was unspectacular but definitely consistent. There aren't a ton of other weapons in Baltimore's offense, so I'd expect more of the same from his this year. Which is nothing to complain about at all. I prefer a lot of the backs that I listed below him, but he gets bumped up my list for being a strong, reliable, safe bet.
-----TIER 4: A LITTLE RISKIER-----
10. Lynch, Marshawn, RB, BUF [1115 YDS - 7 TDS]
Lynch looked good last year... Better than I expected honestly. Despite him being a 2nd year back, I don't see any reason for regression. I'd feel comfortable with him on my roster for sure...
11. Grant, Ryan, RB, GB [956 YDS - 8 TDS]
- Like Lynch, looked GREAT last year but doesn't have the track record. He accomplished a lot in a shorter season. I like GB's oline a lot and if it weren't for Favre's retirement I may have Grant even higher. Lots of upside here, but again, he's not entirely proven over the long haul so there are some question marks as far as how his 2nd year starting will play out.
12. Gore, Frank, RB, SF [1102 YDS - 5 TDS]
- Gore's obviously a talented back, but last year his owners weren't rewarded for their high first round investments. Regardless, Mike Martz is in town now, so the question is – will Gore's value skyrocket? I lean towards, 'yep', but it's a big enough gamble that I don't think I could get myself to take him any earlier than this. He slips based on being too much a roll of the dice.
-----TIER 5: SWING-FOR-THE-FENCES-----
13. Brown, Ronnie, RB, MIA [602 YDS - 4 TDS]
- Speaking of rolling the dice, Ronnie Brown is intriguing this season. When Miami hired LT's offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, in 2007 everyone wondered how it would affect Ronnie Brown's production. Well it didn't take long for us to see that it shot him through the roof and if it weren't for that ACL injury he'd probably be in everyone's top 3-4 this year easily. So where do you rank him now? I'm putting him here under the assumption that we'll hear he's around 80% when FF drafts are starting up.
14. Johnson, Larry, RB, KC [559 YDS - 3 TDS]
- After a disappointing 2007, LJ may or may not rebound. He's also still young, he's the main weapon on that offense and he's clearly talented... BUT, between the oline problems and injuries last year, I don't think I could possibly get myself to draft him any earlier than this. He's just too much of a gamble for me to rank much higher.
15a. White, LenDale, RB, TEN [1110 YDS - 7 TDS]
- LenDale didn't exactly tear it up, but he did slug his way to a respectable season. He seems like a safe bet to put up similar numbers to last year... I wouldn't want to bet the farm on him, but he seems reliable to produce.
15b. Jones-Drew, Maurice, RB, JAX [768 YDS - 9 TDS]
- MJD proved a disappointment last year for those who took him REALLY early, but all in all he had a good season. Fred Taylor obviously went insane and had a great year, but he isn't getting younger and MJD IS the goalline back... Either way Jones-Drew is a solid pick with some decent upside and as much as I'd like to rank him higher, the question of Fred Taylor makes me nervous enough to keep him this low.
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Seeing this may give H.K. an aneurysm...
Highlighted a couple I was confused about.
