RB's likely to get 300 touches in 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

Last year, 11 RB's had 300+ touches:

Tomlinson - 375

Portis - 372

Westbrook - 368

James - 348

Parker - 344

Jones - 338

McGahee - 337

Lewis - 328

White - 323

Gore - 313

Addai - 302

For 2008, who falls off this list, and who joins the list? Here are my RB's most likely to get 300+ touches:

Remaining on the list...

Tomlinson - 28 less touches in 2007 vs his career avg of 403, but a virtual lock to make the list every year until retirement

Portis - only an injury keeps him under 350+ touches in 2008; avg 379 touches in 3 healthy seasons with Redskins

Westbrook - 300 carries unlikely, but 300+ touches no problem even with his usual missed game

James - age an issue, but ARI ride him for at least 1 more season; same backups + Hightower = 300+ for Edge once again

McGahee - Rice won't cut into McGahee's stats enough to keep him off this list again

Jones - hits the 30-yr mark before start of the season, but NYJ seems content to give him 300 again in 2008

Lewis - Wright/Harrison his backups again; under 300 only once in his career (don't count missed 2001 season)

White - say what you want about him, but he wears down D's (as long as he himself doesn't need an oxygen assist)

Gore - Foster brought in only as insurance; Gore can catch and will get 350 under Martz

Addai - barely cracked 300 in 2007; I'll throw out 330 as my guess for 2008

Falling off the list...

Parker - broken leg in 2007 + Mendenhall in 2008 = no workhorse in PIT

Making the list...

Peterson - RB17 in touches with 257, but a top 5 FF finish in most scoring formats; Taylor still in town, but ADP cracks 300

Jackson - 275 touches for SJax in only 12 games last year; a lock for well over 300 if healthy

Johnson - 188 touches for LJ in 1/2 season last year; another lock for well over 300 if healthy

Turner - Dunn racked up 265 touches last year; let's see how ATL uses their RB1 when he weighs 50 lbs more

Lynch - almost made the list in 2007 (298) in 13 games; should see 300+ a handful of times in his career

I realize I have 15 RB's topping 300 touches in 2008 when only 11 did it in 2007. But, 2007 was an off-year. 14 RB's had over 300 touches in 2006 and 2005. So, what you got?

 

[KCC]

It wouldn't surprise me if Darren McFadden gets 300+ touches.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Earnest Graham. 250 + carries. 60+ receptions. It could happen.

 

[rzrback77]

Assuming no injuries or missed games, I think that Ryan Grant should reach 300 touches in 08. There aren't really many options above what you listed and the next few posts. I am a bif McFadden supporter, but I think that the Raiders will use Fargas (who they paid nicely) to keep McFadden fresh and save the wear and tear on those chicken-legs that are leading the majority of posters to predict bust for him.

My contrarian prediction is that I think that Maroney will come reasonably close (over 250), but probably not cross the 300 threshold.

 

[Cookiemonster]

White, Addai and Parker get my vote to fall off the list. White because he has to stop eating for a month or two, as well as beat out a 1st round rookie and 2nd year, early pick for touches. Addai 'cause they brought Rhodes back. Not for Rhodes to get action as much as limit Addai's punishment, and Domenic is very capable running, catching and blocking. Parker, 'cause I think it's at least 50/50 w/ M'hall by season's end.

 

[Jason Wood]

Let's not forget that a lot of backs would be locks for 300 touches if they stayed healthy and played for teams with great defenses. I'm still tightening up my projections for the site but once they're finished I will gladly share my thoughts on this subject.

 

[travdogg]

I'd be surprised if White got that many touches again. He's just not very good and they took a more talented RB(who they are looking to get the ball) in the 1st round.

Graham is a nice sleeper for 300 touches. Barring injury to Graham, Caddy is the only reason Graham might not get that many touches.

I expect Addai to clear 300 touches pretty safely. I'd guess about 280 carries and about 50 receptions. Maybe more receptions depending on Harrison.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I realize I have 15 RB's topping 300 touches in 2008 when only 11 did it in 2007. But, 2007 was an off-year. 14 RB's had over 300 touches in 2006 and 2005. So, what you got?

This is to be expected since we're not projecting injuries. In a perfect world where no one got hurt a lot more than 11 guys would get 300+ touches.I would also add Ryan Grant to your list, and am surprised he hasn't been mentioned yet. He seems like a lock for 300+ if healthy.Ronnie Brown also as well. I don't think Ricky will be an issue.

 

[Todem]

Earnest Graham. 250 + carries. 60+ receptions. It could happen.

My goodness people who are banking on that are in for a shock.

 

[moderated]

Earnest Graham. 250 + carries. 60+ receptions. It could happen.

My goodness people who are banking on that are in for a shock.

Had they drafted or signed a solid RB i could see how that would be off, but who is going to take touches away?Dunn will get a series every now and then to keep Graham fresh, but there is nothing Dunn does better at this stage of his career then Graham does. Graham will get all that he can handle.I actually think Graham is one of the more likely guys to get 300+ touches due to being a solid receiver out of the backfield.All of this assumes barring injury, but that is implied with everyone.***Just to add he had 270 touches last year and he barely had a role the first few weeks***

 

[Todem]

Earnest Graham. 250 + carries. 60+ receptions. It could happen.

My goodness people who are banking on that are in for a shock.

Had they drafted or signed a solid RB i could see how that would be off, but who is going to take touches away?Dunn will get a series every now and then to keep Graham fresh, but there is nothing Dunn does better at this stage of his career then Graham does. Graham will get all that he can handle.I actually think Graham is one of the more likely guys to get 300+ touches due to being a solid receiver out of the backfield.All of this assumes barring injury, but that is implied with everyone.***Just to add he had 270 touches last year and he barely had a role the first few weeks***

I know he did look pretty good last year and had some big games..I am very skeptical that he will effective so maybe he gets the 280-300 touches...but his numbers will not be pretty IMO.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think you can put Ryan Grant on the list.

 

[Bob Henry]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player Tm Touches TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian SD 365 1858McGahee, Willis Bal 352 1560Johnson, Larry KC 351 1603Lynch, Marshawn Buf 350 1585Jackson, Steven StL 345 1662Portis, Clinton Was 337 1537Lewis, Jamal Cle 326 1517James, Edgerrin Ari 324 1299Gore, Frank SF 312 1617Peterson, Adrian Min 310 1843Addai, Joseph Ind 309 1503Westbrook, Brian Phi 304 1755Grant, Ryan GB 304 1418Brown, Ronnie Mia 301 1561White, LenDale Ten 301 1213Parker, Willie Pit 299 1378Barber, Marion Dal 283 1387Jones, Thomas NYJ 278 1186Graham, Earnest TB 272 1286Jacobs, Brandon NYG 271 1393Bush, Reggie NO 256 1351Turner, Michael Atl 255 1151ETA: not sure how to get rid of the scroll bars in the code box.. if another mod knows, please help. thanks.Also, I've probably projected Ronnie Brown a little more than most. I'm still open to changing this one obviously.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I realize I have 15 RB's topping 300 touches in 2008 when only 11 did it in 2007. But, 2007 was an off-year. 14 RB's had over 300 touches in 2006 and 2005. So, what you got?

This is to be expected since we're not projecting injuries. In a perfect world where no one got hurt a lot more than 11 guys would get 300+ touches.I would also add Ryan Grant to your list, and am surprised he hasn't been mentioned yet. He seems like a lock for 300+ if healthy.Ronnie Brown also as well. I don't think Ricky will be an issue.

Ronnie is supposedly about 80-85% right now (and I'm skeptical of that #). Why wouldn't Ricky be an issue? Why wouldn't Ronnie's knee be the issue that makes Ricky an issue? Ronnie may really come on strong in the latter part of the season, but should miss some time, if not be very limited early on. I thought 85% was the # you were looking for after the 1st year. I'd rather bank on making it to the playoffs than being stronger for the playoffs and if you already have the pieces in place, he could be the DH for you but don't count on this guy being in your starting lineup all year.I'm also chiming in on Gore. The 9ers just lost Smiley, L.Allen and K.Harris on the O-line, and everyone thinks Martz is going to inject pro-bowl #s into this offense? I'm expecting the offensive #s to go up from last year, but I don't expect Gore to go the Pro Bowl on that alone. This offense is still missing a QB even as legitimate as Kitna, IMO has talented WRs but not more talented than Roy and only I.Bruce @ 42 years old is familiar w/ the system. A less-than-dominant O line that likely took a step back and a realistic relief pitcher in D.Foster brought in and this guy is going top 7 in almost all drafts? Talk about needing to temper expectations. If we're not projecting injuries, then I think it's just as likely that Rudi Johnson outperforms Gore.

 

[Cookiemonster]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player			Tm	Touches	TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian	SD	365	1858McGahee, Willis		Bal	352	1560Johnson, Larry		KC	351	1603Lynch, Marshawn		Buf	350	1585Jackson, Steven		StL	345	1662Portis, Clinton		Was	337	1537Lewis, Jamal		Cle	326	1517James, Edgerrin		Ari	324	1299Gore, Frank		SF	312	1617Peterson, Adrian	Min	310	1843Addai, Joseph		Ind	309	1503Westbrook, Brian	Phi	304	1755Grant, Ryan		GB	304	1418Brown, Ronnie		Mia	301	1561White, LenDale		Ten	301	1213Parker, Willie		Pit	299	1378Barber, Marion		Dal	283	1387Jones, Thomas		NYJ	278	1186Graham, Earnest		TB	272	1286Jacobs, Brandon		NYG	271	1393Bush, Reggie		NO	256	1351Turner, Michael		Atl	255	1151

ETA: not sure how to get rid of the scroll bars in the code box.. if another mod knows, please help. thanks.Also, I've probably projected Ronnie Brown a little more than most. I'm still open to changing this one obviously.

I think you can probably bump Turner up quite a few touches if excluding injury, as he's been brought in to be a bell-cow, is built as such, and the running game should be featured as long as the games haven't gotten out of hand. I'm thinking 275 at a minimum. I have FWP about 50 touches less. MeMO was brought in to be a 3rd down back before drafting M'hall so it's obvious that they want to get Parker off the field on 3rd downs and now have two good options to do that with, but M'hall is also a better 1st and 2nd down back (or at least will be soon) so I'm looking for Parker to lose quite a few touches. If LenDale was going to get 300 touches, they wouldn't have drafted C.Henry last year and C.Johnson so early this year. You can still expect decent TD #s for him, but I think the 250 ballpark is closer to it. See post above for my opinion on Ronnie Brown. I'm on board w/ the rest.

 

[PranksterJD]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player			Tm	Touches	TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian	SD	365	1858McGahee, Willis		Bal	352	1560Johnson, Larry		KC	351	1603Lynch, Marshawn		Buf	350	1585Jackson, Steven		StL	345	1662Portis, Clinton		Was	337	1537Lewis, Jamal		Cle	326	1517James, Edgerrin		Ari	324	1299Gore, Frank		SF	312	1617Peterson, Adrian	Min	310	1843Addai, Joseph		Ind	309	1503Westbrook, Brian	Phi	304	1755Grant, Ryan		GB	304	1418Brown, Ronnie		Mia	301	1561White, LenDale		Ten	301	1213Parker, Willie		Pit	299	1378Barber, Marion		Dal	283	1387Jones, Thomas		NYJ	278	1186Graham, Earnest		TB	272	1286Jacobs, Brandon		NYG	271	1393Bush, Reggie		NO	256	1351Turner, Michael		Atl	255	1151

ETA: not sure how to get rid of the scroll bars in the code box.. if another mod knows, please help. thanks.Also, I've probably projected Ronnie Brown a little more than most. I'm still open to changing this one obviously.

use [ code ] instead of [ codeBOX ].

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm also chiming in on Gore. The 9ers just lost Smiley, L.Allen and K.Harris on the O-line, and everyone thinks Martz is going to inject pro-bowl #s into this offense?

Harris is no loss whatsoever. Allen finally looked his age last year. Smiley isn't a stud but his loss still smarts a bit. 15 carries a game and 4 catches per game puts him well over 300 touches on the season.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm also chiming in on Gore. The 9ers just lost Smiley, L.Allen and K.Harris on the O-line, and everyone thinks Martz is going to inject pro-bowl #s into this offense?

Harris is no loss whatsoever. Allen finally looked his age last year. Smiley isn't a stud but his loss still smarts a bit. 15 carries a game and 4 catches per game puts him well over 300 touches on the season.

No, Kwame was no loss, but he was depth on an underwhelming O-line that just lost two good players (O.K., one good and one servicable). Besides that, Foster coming over will allow them to spell Gore a little more than Hicks/Robinson.

 

[brednbuddah]

It wouldn't surprise me if Darren McFadden gets 300+ touches.

It won't happen with McGahee in the way, but Ray Rice could post 300+ carries if he had the opp.335 carries in 06, 380! in 07

 

[Mr. Peterson]

It wouldn't surprise me if Darren McFadden gets 300+ touches.

It won't happen with McGahee in the way, but Ray Rice could post 300+ carries if he had the opp.335 carries in 06, 380! in 07

BOLD!

 

[aggie_dave]

I gotta tell you, I'm kind of suprised no one has mentioned MBIII. He just got a new deal, and they are gonna let him have the opportunity to carry the load in big D. No question do I think he gets at least 20 carries per game even with Felix Jones getting significant 3rd down duty.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

I gotta tell you, I'm kind of suprised no one has mentioned MBIII. He just got a new deal, and they are gonna let him have the opportunity to carry the load in big D. No question do I think he gets at least 20 carries per game even with Felix Jones getting significant 3rd down duty.

Guys like Barber and MJD will never be a 300 carry players for a reason. They play a certain way and the team knows they will get the best out of them if they limit the carries. That doesn't mean they won't be top 10 backs, but they will always be limited.But I guess if Jones turns out to be a total bust then I guess Barber could get his 300. But only if Jones is horrible.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I gotta tell you, I'm kind of suprised no one has mentioned MBIII. He just got a new deal, and they are gonna let him have the opportunity to carry the load in big D. No question do I think he gets at least 20 carries per game even with Felix Jones getting significant 3rd down duty.

Considering he has only carried the ball more than 20 times in a game once in his career, i am not sure where your confidence comes from.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player			Tm	Touches	TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian	SD	365	1858McGahee, Willis		Bal	352	1560Johnson, Larry		KC	351	1603Lynch, Marshawn		Buf	350	1585Jackson, Steven		StL	345	1662Portis, Clinton		Was	337	1537Lewis, Jamal		Cle	326	1517James, Edgerrin		Ari	324	1299Gore, Frank		SF	312	1617Peterson, Adrian	Min	310	1843Addai, Joseph		Ind	309	1503Westbrook, Brian	Phi	304	1755Grant, Ryan		GB	304	1418Brown, Ronnie		Mia	301	1561White, LenDale		Ten	301	1213Parker, Willie		Pit	299	1378Barber, Marion		Dal	283	1387Jones, Thomas		NYJ	278	1186Graham, Earnest		TB	272	1286Jacobs, Brandon		NYG	271	1393Bush, Reggie		NO	256	1351Turner, Michael		Atl	255	1151

ETA: not sure how to get rid of the scroll bars in the code box.. if another mod knows, please help. thanks.Also, I've probably projected Ronnie Brown a little more than most. I'm still open to changing this one obviously.

Do you expect Turner to get hurt? At 33 years of age Dunn got 264 touches last season in Atl. I think they are paying/expecting Turner to come in and average more then 15 touches per game this year.

 

[Bri]

leaning towards teams that you expect to win(vs let's air it out because we're behind), would probably weed a few off your list

 

[sho nuff]

White, Addai and Parker get my vote to fall off the list. White because he has to stop eating for a month or two, as well as beat out a 1st round rookie and 2nd year, early pick for touches. Addai 'cause they brought Rhodes back. Not for Rhodes to get action as much as limit Addai's punishment, and Domenic is very capable running, catching and blocking. Parker, 'cause I think it's at least 50/50 w/ M'hall by season's end.

Wow...a Lendale weight joke, how original.Despite his supposed weight concerns...he got the touches last year and fits the mold of what Fisher likes to do.Barring injury or fumble problems, he should get 300. The 1st round rookie will be likely used as a change of pace and in the slot even as a receiver. He is not as much of a thread to carries as you would think.

 

[sho nuff]

I'd be surprised if White got that many touches again. He's just not very good and they took a more talented RB(who they are looking to get the ball) in the 1st round.

He's just not very good? Really?Do any of you watch the games...or just look at his ypc and not realize he is exactly the kind of guy Fisher loves to give the ball to.

 

[Lord Lucan]

It wouldn't surprise me if Darren McFadden gets 300+ touches.

Well, if they decided to have him returning kick-offs you can mark him down for about ten touches a game there...

 

[Tanner9919]

Last year, 11 RB's had 300+ touches:

Tomlinson - 375

Portis - 372

Westbrook - 368

James - 348

Parker - 344

Jones - 338

McGahee - 337

Lewis - 328

White - 323

Gore - 313

Addai - 302

For 2008, who falls off this list, and who joins the list? Here are my RB's most likely to get 300+ touches:

Remaining on the list...

Tomlinson - 28 less touches in 2007 vs his career avg of 403, but a virtual lock to make the list every year until retirement

Portis - only an injury keeps him under 350+ touches in 2008; avg 379 touches in 3 healthy seasons with Redskins

Westbrook - 300 carries unlikely, but 300+ touches no problem even with his usual missed game

James - age an issue, but ARI ride him for at least 1 more season; same backups + Hightower = 300+ for Edge once again

McGahee - Rice won't cut into McGahee's stats enough to keep him off this list again

Jones - hits the 30-yr mark before start of the season, but NYJ seems content to give him 300 again in 2008

Lewis - Wright/Harrison his backups again; under 300 only once in his career (don't count missed 2001 season)

White - say what you want about him, but he wears down D's (as long as he himself doesn't need an oxygen assist)

Gore - Foster brought in only as insurance; Gore can catch and will get 350 under Martz

Addai - barely cracked 300 in 2007; I'll throw out 330 as my guess for 2008

Falling off the list...

Parker - broken leg in 2007 + Mendenhall in 2008 = no workhorse in PIT

Making the list...

Peterson - RB17 in touches with 257, but a top 5 FF finish in most scoring formats; Taylor still in town, but ADP cracks 300

Jackson - 275 touches for SJax in only 12 games last year; a lock for well over 300 if healthy

Johnson - 188 touches for LJ in 1/2 season last year; another lock for well over 300 if healthy

Turner - Dunn racked up 265 touches last year; let's see how ATL uses their RB1 when he weighs 50 lbs more

Lynch - almost made the list in 2007 (298) in 13 games; should see 300+ a handful of times in his career

I realize I have 15 RB's topping 300 touches in 2008 when only 11 did it in 2007. But, 2007 was an off-year. 14 RB's had over 300 touches in 2006 and 2005. So, what you got?

300+ carries:LJ,LT, Grant, Lewis, Portis, James, TJ, McFadden, Earnest Graham, Jackson, ADP, Lynch ( if healthy), McGahee ( if healthy), White, Julius Jones, ..

300+ touches ( not including the above list):

Michael Turner, Westbrook, Gore, Parker, Brandon Jacobs ( if healthy), Rudi,Travis Henry ( if clean and healthy ).

Grant has a legit shot at being a workhorse 300+ carry RB for GB this season..Without Favre, they'll lean on the running game like never before .

JJ is going to do extremely well in Seattle, IMO. That offense is a perfect fit for him..The O-line is still a top unit, so I'd imagine Jones will get some 335 carries, and probably 20-30 receptions..

McGahee, if healthy, will be a workhorse for Cam Cameron..325+ carries, and probably 50-60 receptions. I'm not a big fan of McGahee's, but this could be his best season as a pro..

I think Addai will fall just short of 300 touches..

McFadden will be run into the ground, he'll probably run away with ROY honors..

Jacobs could easily top 300+ carries, but he's always hurt..Travis Henry could be the NFL's comeback player of the year, they will rely heavily on him if he stays out of trouble and stays healthy..at one point last season he was the league's leading rusher..

LJ should easily have 300+ carries..they'll run him ragged like they did back in 2006..

Steven Jackson will have well over 300 carries, and will catch a lot of balls in 2008..He'll be the focal point of the Rams' offense..just think of the Chiefs running game under Saunders in recent years ( 2002-2005), thats what you can expect from Sjax in 2008..lots of carries, plenty of receptions..



I'd include Fred Taylor, but MJD is lurking..

 

[Garts]

Julius Jones would be dead if he got 325 carries.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

300+ carries:

Julius Jones

Even if he did, he still wouldn't break 1,000 yards rushing.

 

[QUEZILLA]

Earnest Graham. 250 + carries. 60+ receptions. It could happen.

My goodness people who are banking on that are in for a shock.

Had they drafted or signed a solid RB i could see how that would be off, but who is going to take touches away?Dunn will get a series every now and then to keep Graham fresh, but there is nothing Dunn does better at this stage of his career then Graham does. Graham will get all that he can handle.

I actually think Graham is one of the more likely guys to get 300+ touches due to being a solid receiver out of the backfield.

All of this assumes barring injury, but that is implied with everyone.

***Just to add he had 270 touches last year and he barely had a role the first few weeks***

This won't happen unless everyone else gets injured, and he is the only RB left like last year. I expect it to be split about 40% Graham, 40% Dunn, 20% Bennet. Most people are sleeping on Michael Bennet, and he is still available on the ww in most leagues. Gruden used him a few times last year, and he really likes his speed. He was one of the first guys to get resigned, and now he has an entire off season to really learn the offense. Grudens o is said to be one of the hardest to pick up, so he wasn't able to participate much last season.

IF Caddy shows that he can practice at full speed, then I expect Gruden to slowly ease him back in.

Don't fool yourself. Barring any major injuries this will be a RBBC. Also, Gruden and Allen are notorious for not allowing players to hit their incentives. Gruden also will game plan his O against the D he is playing. For example, he wouldn't use Alstott for a few games, and then he would use him a ton.

Here is the stats for Mike Alstott the last year we had a decent o-line (2002). # of carries is 4th column over. I expect EG to be used similarly to this.

1 TB NO 6 11 0 5 4 48 0 5.9 [play-by-play]

2 TB BAL 11 23 0 7 5 25 0 4.8 [play-by-play]

3 TB STL 5 10 1 2 1 10 0 8.0 [play-by-play]

4 TB CIN 7 29 1 2 1 6 0 9.5 [play-by-play]

5 TB ATL 4 9 0 1 1 6 0 1.5 [play-by-play]

6 TB CLE 17 126 2 5 2 13 0 25.9 [play-by-play]

7 TB PHI 5 14 0 6 5 8 0 2.2 [play-by-play]

8 TB CAR 5 4 0 4 3 11 0 1.5 [play-by-play]

9 TB MIN 26 55 0 4 3 16 1 13.1 [play-by-play]

11 TB CAR 2 8 0 2 2 13 0 2.1 [play-by-play]

12 TB GB 9 30 0 1 1 8 0 3.8 [play-by-play]

13 TB NO 8 17 0 2 2 47 1 12.4 [play-by-play]

14 TB ATL 13 95 0 0 0 0 0 9.5 [play-by-play]

15 TB DET 11 47 1 5 3 23 0 13.0 [play-by-play]

16 TB PIT 5 28 0 1 1 4 0 3.2 [play-by-play]

17 TB CHI 12 42 0 1 1 4 0 4.6 [play-by-play]

 

[Bob Henry]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player			Tm	Touches	TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian	SD	365	1858McGahee, Willis		Bal	352	1560Johnson, Larry		KC	351	1603Lynch, Marshawn		Buf	350	1585Jackson, Steven		StL	345	1662Portis, Clinton		Was	337	1537Lewis, Jamal		Cle	326	1517James, Edgerrin		Ari	324	1299Gore, Frank		SF	312	1617Peterson, Adrian	Min	310	1843Addai, Joseph		Ind	309	1503Westbrook, Brian	Phi	304	1755Grant, Ryan		GB	304	1418Brown, Ronnie		Mia	301	1561White, LenDale		Ten	301	1213Parker, Willie		Pit	299	1378Barber, Marion		Dal	283	1387Jones, Thomas		NYJ	278	1186Graham, Earnest		TB	272	1286Jacobs, Brandon		NYG	271	1393Bush, Reggie		NO	256	1351Turner, Michael		Atl	255	1151

Do you expect Turner to get hurt? At 33 years of age Dunn got 264 touches last season in Atl. I think they are paying/expecting Turner to come in and average more then 15 touches per game this year.

Not really. I've looked at the # of touches the Falcons backs had last year, which was down significantly to the previous years due to the change in coaching philosophy and offensive system. I think the new staff will more resemble the previous years and be closer to what the Jags have done - though that part might be a stretch, it's just something I've considered when doing the Falcons projections as a team.That said, I may be slightly on the high side for the # of touches going to Norwood (141 carries, 29 receptions, 170 overall) considering he had 111 as a rookie in 14 games and 130 last year in 15 games. I think he'll see a slightly larger role, though 170 might be a tad too high in retrospect.The combined total of 170 for Norwood and 255 for Turner yields 425 total touches for the Falcons two two backs. Last year, Dunn and Norwood has 265 and 130 respectively for 395. In 2006, Dunn had 308 and Norwood 111 for a total of 419. In 2005, Dunn had 309 and Duckett 127 for a total of 436.I think the projected total of touches I have for Atlanta is about right for 2008, but it all comes down to how they use Turner and Norwood. Do we have enough evidence through coach speak or otherwise to confidently project Turner for a bigger share of the workload? Or will their workload resemble something similar to MJD and Fred Taylor? It's a guess right now, but if anything, I might increase Turner's rushing attempts by 10 or so and decrease Norwoods by the same amount.Thanks for the feedback. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

These are based upon my current 2008 projections. 15 RBs projected for 300+ touches, though as Woodrow pointed out above, with injuries that is sure to be lower and probably around the historical norms.

Player			Tm	Touches	TotYdTomlinson, Ladainian	SD	365	1858McGahee, Willis		Bal	352	1560Johnson, Larry		KC	351	1603Lynch, Marshawn		Buf	350	1585Jackson, Steven		StL	345	1662Portis, Clinton		Was	337	1537Lewis, Jamal		Cle	326	1517James, Edgerrin		Ari	324	1299Gore, Frank		SF	312	1617Peterson, Adrian	Min	310	1843Addai, Joseph		Ind	309	1503Westbrook, Brian	Phi	304	1755Grant, Ryan		GB	304	1418Brown, Ronnie		Mia	301	1561White, LenDale		Ten	301	1213Parker, Willie		Pit	299	1378Barber, Marion		Dal	283	1387Jones, Thomas		NYJ	278	1186Graham, Earnest		TB	272	1286Jacobs, Brandon		NYG	271	1393Bush, Reggie		NO	256	1351Turner, Michael		Atl	255	1151

Do you expect Turner to get hurt? At 33 years of age Dunn got 264 touches last season in Atl. I think they are paying/expecting Turner to come in and average more then 15 touches per game this year.

Not really. I've looked at the # of touches the Falcons backs had last year, which was down significantly to the previous years due to the change in coaching philosophy and offensive system. I think the new staff will more resemble the previous years and be closer to what the Jags have done - though that part might be a stretch, it's just something I've considered when doing the Falcons projections as a team.That said, I may be slightly on the high side for the # of touches going to Norwood (141 carries, 29 receptions, 170 overall) considering he had 111 as a rookie in 14 games and 130 last year in 15 games. I think he'll see a slightly larger role, though 170 might be a tad too high in retrospect.The combined total of 170 for Norwood and 255 for Turner yields 425 total touches for the Falcons two two backs. Last year, Dunn and Norwood has 265 and 130 respectively for 395. In 2006, Dunn had 308 and Norwood 111 for a total of 419. In 2005, Dunn had 309 and Duckett 127 for a total of 436.I think the projected total of touches I have for Atlanta is about right for 2008, but it all comes down to how they use Turner and Norwood. Do we have enough evidence through coach speak or otherwise to confidently project Turner for a bigger share of the workload? Or will their workload resemble something similar to MJD and Fred Taylor? It's a guess right now, but if anything, I might increase Turner's rushing attempts by 10 or so and decrease Norwoods by the same amount.Thanks for the feedback. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

Thanks for the explanation. I think it is safe to say that Turner is the power attack of atl's offense and will be given the ball at the minimum 18 times a game in the rushing department. Throw in 30-35 catches and he is at the 320 mark. The MJD and F. Taylor comparison is different. MJD and Taylor are both far better runners than Norwood and have much more to offer than Norwood does to a running game. Norwood is a home run hitter and will be the Falcons change of pace guy and will come into give Turner breathers. It could even be argued that Turner is just as much a home run threat as Norwood as well.

 

[switz]

I think Addai will fall just short of 300 touches..

While missing a game last year, having KK get 120 carries, Addai still managed to get 300+ touches. I can't see any reasonable argument where he gets LESS work than last year.Possible arguments:a) He's bound to get hurt again - um... sure. So is every other RB.b) Rhodes is going to steal more touches than KK did. - problem is, when Rhodes was the #1 component in the RBBC with Addai, he only had 187 carries. Again that was as the lead back. It would be shocking if he had a significantly larger portion of work than KK did last season.c) Mike Hart is going to beat out Addai. - That one borders on ridiculous.