RBs playing against former teams (1 Viewer)

[Frank Black]

Jamal Lewis is playing his former team for the first time this week. This got me thinking . . .

Like any human being going against a former employer, NFL players are motivated more highly than usual to excel against a team they used to play for. Let's talk about RBs playing their most recent former team for the first time. Of course, team situations and 1000 other variables come into play, but nonetheless, this may be an interesting topic.

I don't know what the entire meaningful list is, but here are a few.

Dillion: 1st game against CIN 1 season later: 88 yards rush 1 TD

Droughns: 1st game against DEN 2 seasons later: 33 yards rush, 4 rec for 27 yards

Dunn: 1st game against TB 1 season later: 9 rush for 14 yards, 2 rec for 13 yards

Henry: 1st game against BUF 2 seasons later: 135 rush 1 TD

Jordan: 1st game against NYJ 1 season later: 49 rush, 4 rec for 30 yards

Martin: 1st game against NE 1 season later: 149 rush, 2 rec for 8 yards, 1 TD

Pittman: 1st game against AZ 3 seasons later: 50 rush, 3 rec for 30 yards

Portis: 1st game against DEN 2 seasons later: 103 rush, 2 rec for 27 yards

Emmitt Smith: 1st game against DAL 1 season later: -1 yard but was injured in that game

R. Williams: 1st game against NO 3 seasons later: 82 yards rush

This list is not exhaustive and I didn't see the point of adding elite studs like M. Faulk and Holmes.

I'm not certain what these numbers tell us about the cause and effect of the "extra" motivation. Some of these RBs put up yards, but the TDs seem scarce to me. Just as surely as the RB is motivated against his old team, my guess is that his old team is determined to keep him out of the end zone.

 

[Warpig]

It's Baltimore.

He'll be lucky to have 50 yds rushing and 0 TD's. I'm sure Baltimore is gonna force DA to beat them.

 

[Frank Black]

It's Baltimore.He'll be lucky to have 50 yds rushing and 0 TD's. I'm sure Baltimore is gonna force DA to beat them.

I absolutely agree. I don't see much out of Lewis this weekend, but I'm also thinking about McGahee latre this season.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Particularly for RBs, I would think there is little reason to expect them to particularly excel against their former team. I don't know how much more a RB can put into a game based on this kind of emotion or adrenaline, and in fact I would think it might work against them. RB is not a position where it's easy to slack off and still keep your job and avoid a hospital visit, so how much more can a RB really give in the game? If the player is all hyped up, they might make more mistakes, or try to create the "Big Play" instead of sticking to their discipline and doing their jobs the way they always did it. Plus he's going up against the coordinator who has seen his weaknesses and tendencies for the past several years.

The main way it could work is if his new coach buys into his emotion and feeds him more carries, or creates special plays/situations in order to feed off his increased energy. I think there is more opportunity for this kind of thing for WRs for a couple reasons. First, WR is a position where it seems there is more opportunity for the player to slack off for a few plays, so additional focus leading to crisper routes or being more aggressive breaking coverage could mean an extra big play or two. Second, because they only see the ball a few times a game, a coach designing a few more opportunities for that player in order to feed on his emotion can have a much bigger percentage impact on his total stats.

 

[Warpig]

It's Baltimore.He'll be lucky to have 50 yds rushing and 0 TD's. I'm sure Baltimore is gonna force DA to beat them.

I absolutely agree. I don't see much out of Lewis this weekend, but I'm also thinking about McGahee latre this season.

Now McGahee is a different story. Due to the current state of his previous team, I'd say he goes for 150 and 2 Td's.

 

[PatsFan72]

Thanks for doing the research, Frank Black, let's dig a little deeper.

Here are the averages of the first 5 players you listed for that year per start, taking out the vs game, with percentage difference of fantasy points...

Name............Rus Y...Rus TD..Rec.....Rec Y...Rec TD..FPPG....FP rematch..DifCorey Dillon....52.580..0.916...1.083...09.916..0.000...12.829......14.800..+15.37%Reuben Droughns.62.727..0.363...1.909...14.090..0.000...11.769......10.000..-15.03%Warrick Dunn....68.923..0.538...3.692...28.000..0.153...17.530......04.700..-73.19%Travis Henry....87.833..0.416...1.416...06.333..0.000...13.329......13.500..+01.29%LeMont Jordan...75.076..0.692...5.076...41.000..0.153...21.754......11.900..-45.30%

Going by those numbers it looks like it had no discernable effect, and should not be used when trying to determine how well someone will do.

 

[Ozymandias]

Thanks for doing the research, Frank Black, let's dig a little deeper.

Here are the averages of the first 5 players you listed for that year per start, taking out the vs game, with percentage difference of fantasy points...

Name............Rus Y...Rus TD..Rec.....Rec Y...Rec TD..FPPG....FP rematch..DifCorey Dillon....52.580..0.916...1.083...09.916..0.000...12.829......14.800..+15.37%Reuben Droughns.62.727..0.363...1.909...14.090..0.000...11.769......10.000..-15.03%Warrick Dunn....68.923..0.538...3.692...28.000..0.153...17.530......04.700..-73.19%Travis Henry....87.833..0.416...1.416...06.333..0.000...13.329......13.500..+01.29%LeMont Jordan...75.076..0.692...5.076...41.000..0.153...21.754......11.900..-45.30%

Going by those numbers it looks like it had no discernable effect, and should not be used when trying to determine how well someone will do.

Exactly. And yet, over and over you hear people say: "He will really be motivated." There is no doubt that motivation plays a part in football, but it works both ways. The defense will probably be motivated not to let a former team member do too well against them. In addition, football players are usually motivated, so it isn't as if they are going from 0 to 100. Maybe from 98 to 100. Most players want to do well all the time.

 

[Frank Black]

Thanks for doing the research, Frank Black, let's dig a little deeper.

Here are the averages of the first 5 players you listed for that year per start, taking out the vs game, with percentage difference of fantasy points...

Name............Rus Y...Rus TD..Rec.....Rec Y...Rec TD..FPPG....FP rematch..DifCorey Dillon....52.580..0.916...1.083...09.916..0.000...12.829......14.800..+15.37%Reuben Droughns.62.727..0.363...1.909...14.090..0.000...11.769......10.000..-15.03%Warrick Dunn....68.923..0.538...3.692...28.000..0.153...17.530......04.700..-73.19%Travis Henry....87.833..0.416...1.416...06.333..0.000...13.329......13.500..+01.29%LeMont Jordan...75.076..0.692...5.076...41.000..0.153...21.754......11.900..-45.30%

Going by those numbers it looks like it had no discernable effect, and should not be used when trying to determine how well someone will do.

Exactly. And yet, over and over you hear people say: "He will really be motivated." There is no doubt that motivation plays a part in football, but it works both ways. The defense will probably be motivated not to let a former team member do too well against them. In addition, football players are usually motivated, so it isn't as if they are going from 0 to 100. Maybe from 98 to 100. Most players want to do well all the time.

Awesome analysis!

 

[PatsFan72]

Exactly...

We obviously need a bigger sample size, and I should work in what that defense was giving up to RBs that year, but every time I've looked at, it seems to not make any difference to a 'normal' player.Now, when you have someone that has a known motivation issue, and does do well when motivated, and you have a good reason to think this will motivate them, then you look at it differently, but there really aren't many players like that. I'd love to look at what Randy Moss did in OAK against MIN, but they never played each other in the regular season.Can you think of any other players that have known motivation issues we could look at?

 

[hellz_fireflies]

Jamal Lewis is playing his former team for the first time this week. This got me thinking . . .Like any human being going against a former employer, NFL players are motivated more highly than usual to excel against a team they used to play for. Let's talk about RBs playing their most recent former team for the first time. Of course, team situations and 1000 other variables come into play, but nonetheless, this may be an interesting topic.I don't know what the entire meaningful list is, but here are a few.Dillion: 1st game against CIN 1 season later: 88 yards rush 1 TDDroughns: 1st game against DEN 2 seasons later: 33 yards rush, 4 rec for 27 yardsDunn: 1st game against TB 1 season later: 9 rush for 14 yards, 2 rec for 13 yardsHenry: 1st game against BUF 2 seasons later: 135 rush 1 TDJordan: 1st game against NYJ 1 season later: 49 rush, 4 rec for 30 yardsMartin: 1st game against NE 1 season later: 149 rush, 2 rec for 8 yards, 1 TD Pittman: 1st game against AZ 3 seasons later: 50 rush, 3 rec for 30 yardsPortis: 1st game against DEN 2 seasons later: 103 rush, 2 rec for 27 yardsEmmitt Smith: 1st game against DAL 1 season later: -1 yard but was injured in that gameR. Williams: 1st game against NO 3 seasons later: 82 yards rushThis list is not exhaustive and I didn't see the point of adding elite studs like M. Faulk and Holmes. I'm not certain what these numbers tell us about the cause and effect of the "extra" motivation. Some of these RBs put up yards, but the TDs seem scarce to me. Just as surely as the RB is motivated against his old team, my guess is that his old team is determined to keep him out of the end zone.

Lewis against the Browns was great, but Lewis against the Ravens?

 

[Frank Black]

Patsfan, I can think of quite a few WRs who did well in their first rematch, but I agree with Mungo Burrows that different considerations apply to WRs that make it harder to evaluate the "motivation" factor.

I thought there would be a bigger sample size of RBs, but a surprising number of team-switching RBs did not play a rematch.