Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings friends.
Most weeks I simply jump right into the games and try hard to stay on topic but this week I feel compelled to talk about the NFL and what they are doing or not doing with reference to violent hits. I’m not going to weigh in and point the finger and say this player or that player is or isn’t dirty. I will instead echo what Mike Ditka said on the Mike and Mike show this week and sums up partially how I feel . Some 70+ years ago the helmets were much different. We laugh at the leather helmets, the single ring facemask but these players knew if they were to lead with their helmets that they risked a lot of injury to themselves even more than the opposing players. Now the helmets are built like race car or motorcycle helmets and they can be used as weapons which is what many of the players do including some of those fined this week. You want to really cut down on injuries you take away that outer metal part of the helmet. That will never happen because the NFL makes too much GD money on teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the stars on the sides of their helmets. Those huge facemasks that wrap around are symbolic to many of the NFL and they aren’t about to change any of that for the better of the game. The NFL in my opinion doesn’t really care about its players. They simply care about the almighty dollar and this isn’t likely to change as the game keeps adding to its fan base although pretty soon they are going to start losing some such as folks like me. I’m sure it won’t impact them much but I am getting tired of what the NFL is becoming. There are other factors such as the emasculation of the entire league including the media and fans but I’m going to save that speech for another day.
Ready to get to the games? Me too.
Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)
The Steelers are lights out at stopping the run so Ronnie Brown has to be a bench guy this week; Ricky Williams too. The Steelers do allow 233 yds a game thru the air however they have 16 sacks, 8 interceptions vs 3 TDs and because they only allow 2.7 ypc on the ground look for Miami to attempt to take to the air. Maybe Ronnie or Ricky can catch some balls but the RBs in Miami are not the focus of the offense so don’t hold your breath. Ronnie has 13 or fewer carries in 4 of the 5 games this season and is only avg 70 total yds per game.
Medenhall is an autostart at this point. Miami is the league avg of 4.1 ypc on defense. I wouldn’t think about not starting Mendenhall the rest of the season. Even if he is bottled up Big ben will set him up with a couple short plunges most weeks. Mendenhall is going to prosper big time the rest of the way as will most of the Pittsburgh WR/TE corp. I like Pittsburgh to lay it on thick this week and Miami to be exposed for the fraud 3-2 they are.
Pittsburgh 31…Miami 14
Cincinnati at Atlanta (-3.5) (42.5) opened at (-6)
This has the makings of big points this week. Atlanta was exposed in the secondary last week and Cincinnati is not that great at stopping the run which plays to Atlanta’s strength. The Bengals are giving up 4.4 ypc and 111 yds per game on the ground, not awful believe or not, but certainly not lock down. They are a little better in the pass defense department so again I look for Atlanta to try and run the ball as much as possible.
Atlanta is now giving up 240 yds a game thru the air. Carson palmer needs to attack this secondary but he seems like at times he not engage. It’s like Maverick from Tog Gun after Goose dies…get the heck in there and fire GD; you have all the weapons at your disposal and a mini tank in the back field, what is your malfunction soldier? Want osme more tidbits on the Falcons? 68.5 % completion rate they allow for opposing QBs…that’s pathetic. 7.7 yds per attempt. Terrell Owens should be on all cylinders this week. Their rush defense is decent and they have done well at shutting down RBs for the most part.
I still like both Benson and Turner this week, would not hesitate to load either into the chamber.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Atlanta 21 Giving it to Cinci off the bye week.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-4.5) (43)
Here is another where I back the truck up. Jax was a complete fraud and they showed it in the loss to the Titans that beat them with Kerry Collins at the controls. Jacksonville plays about as pathetic as a team would be at say 1-5 so the 3-3 record actually means value on the betting lines.
KC is fresh off back to back losses but they now enter a very soft part of their schedule where they don’t face a team with a winning record until Tennessee on Dec 26th…drinks for everyone!!! I look for some big numbers from Charles and maybe even Thomas Jones this week. MJD will likely be bottled up most of the day although KC is not bullet proof so even though he’s not having a great season I probably still roll with him unless you have a much better option. He only needs to get loose a couple times to inflict damage.
Final Score: Kansas City 28…Jacksonville 14
Philly at Tennessee (-2.5) (44.5)
LeSean McCoy is kind of like Darren McFadden earlier this season. He might not always produce but you just can’t risk sitting him. Also I don’t completely trust Kevin Kolb yet although competition is definitely bringing out his best. This week I would bet they lean on McCoy a little more as they are on the road and the atmosphere is Tennessee is going to be hostile. Titans are 4-2 and they are really starting to get full of themselves with Jeff Fisher running up the score last week to send a message to opposing teams that these guys are serious and they are going to lay the wood to you. They just pound on you each week and you better be ready for a back alley brawl when these guys roll into town. They man handled the Jaguars and they will attempt to do the same thing against Philly. This is one of the better games on the board and I am looking forward to watching it. (When I’m not watching the Bucs for the game recaps of course)
LeSean McCoy
Chris Johnson
Final Score: Tennessee 23…Philly 21
Washington at Chicago (-3) (40)
Both of these teams are pretty average but the Chicago bears front seven IMO is the edge in the games they win. Washington is not nearly as good as Chicago in this department so I think that will allow Cutler and company to operate. Washington also seems to benefit from schemes. Last week they were just standing up and waiting for the Colts to snap the ball and Indy was able to exploit that by running the ball with Addai until he went out in the late 3rd.
Ryan Torrain had a big week last week but he is not part of the passing game as he was off the field when Washington needed a score late. I like Torrain but this week he is going to be held in check. The Bears allow 3.5 ypc and 85 yds a game total on the ground so bench Torrain.
Matt Forte has had 2 big games, 2 middle of the road games, and 2 not so good games yet he is 8th overall in avg points in PPR formats. Like I always say, just a handful of players make the difference during the year. I have a feeling he will have at least a decent day this week, in fact he should rack up some points in the passing game.
Final Score: Chicago 24…Washington 14
Cleveland at New Orleans (-13) (43)
Cleveland’s defense is not that bad. They were holding up OK last week for a while against Pittsburgh. What fails them though is the 25th ranked rushing offense and the 25th ranked passing offense. Their defense isn’t good enough to overcome an offense that is anemic at times and doesn’t have a solid QB right now. They have already started 3 different QBs in 5 or 6 games, that is not what good teams do.
The Saints are allowing 3.9 ypc, their passing defense is not too bad either. They got healthy in a hurry last week against Tampa bay and they might have found their groove to carry them out the next few weeks until they reach their bye. I think Devery Henderson will have one of his monster weeks on 2-3 catches at home. He does a lot of damage there inside the dome and he’s due to have one of those games. Early reports showed Pierre Thomas having a 50/50 chance to start. If he does start or is used I might sit him another week until we can gauge how big a workload they give him. Chris Ivory suddenly looks like a good option for the Saints to shoulder some of the load until Reggie Bush can get back on the field.
P.Hillis – I’m never a big fan but even when they get blown out he seems to find 4-5 receptions to remain relevant.
New Orleans RBs – Track the IR and the Sunday Morning reports.
Final Score: New Orleans 30…Cleveland 14
Buffalo at Baltimore (-13.5) (37.5)
Should be a ratings bonanza. Buffalo is not very good at stopping much. Their rush defense is pretty bad and their pass defense has allowed 11 TDs vs only 1 interception for the year so choose whichever you want to score but you will score on them. The Bills are 29th overall on offense including 31st thru the air.
Baltimore is pretty beat up after they were ahead and coasting last week 20-10 going into the 4th quarter when aliens flew down from above and…oh never mind. I like Ray Rice plenty this week and as far as the Bills go, I don’t like Fred Jackson but Spiller could get loose if the Ravens have a comfortable lead and forget about him.
Final Score: Baltimore 27…Buffalo 9
San Fran at Carolina (+1.5) (35)
One of two things are going to happen. Either these 2 teams will be so inept on offense that we have a 10-6 score or the two offenses that overdue to explode will both get on track thru their backs and we end up with a decent scoring affair and some big points for the RBs this week. Since both teams are actually below the league avg of ypc on defense at 3.8 and 3.9 respectively I am going to assume we get a snore fest. I want to tell you that this is the week for DWill and JStew but it simply is not wise. Gore always catches balls so he is a start. I saw him high on many lists this week.
Final Score: San Fran 16…Carolina 13
St Louis at Tampa Bay (-3) (38)
Tampa Bay is awful at stopping the run. Incredibly, even with a pretty good passing game finally in St Louis and them winning football games they cannot spring Jackson to save his life for long runs. He gets about 25 carries a week for anywhere from 80-100 yards. He isn’t a big factor catching the ball and he almost seems like he is just eating up time to shorten the game rather than busting thru the hole. Perhaps his injury a few weeks back was worse than we’ll ever know or maybe the holes just are not there right now. They don’t even try to share his workload with Darby. And the Bucs…who knows who is running the ball there? Did I hear Huggins is on IR? They need new blood in the back field and right now there isn’t anyone they can even sign to shake things up. Maybe Warrick Dunn could come out of retirement.
Final Score: St Louis 21…Tampa Bay 17 Look for the Rams to win their first road game in a very long time. Bucs are not playing well at the C.I.T.S.
Arizona at Seattle (-5.5) (40.5)
Props to the Seadogs for going on the road and finally winning a football game. Right now they are in the driver seat IMO to take the NFC West which will make Petey look like a genius in his 1st season. How AZ managed to win a couple weeks ago at home against New Orleans which had way more talent and was even ahead 10-0 early…I watched the game and I still can’t explain what happened. Seattle is stingy on rush defense so look for Wells and THT to once again have very mediocre days up at the Nest.
I like Marshawn Lynch this week. He looked pretty good last week and doesn’t know the playbook that well. OK he only avg 2.5 ypc but that is going to improve.
Justin Forsett – Keep an eye on him because he scored a TD and had a much better avg but I think limiting him to 10 carries a game is going to help. He is a decent flex option.
Final Score: Seattle 24…Arizona 16
New England at San Diego (-3) (47)
Just throw the numbers out the window right now. San Diego was running near the top in most statistical categories on both sides of the ball yet they are 2-4 right now. I can’t explain. It. How is Dallas 1-4 with better talent than most other teams they play. I am not a big Norv Turner fan although he is great for most FF owners.
New England’s defense is still pretty suspect but San Diego was hit hard with injuries to Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates, and they have others nursing injuries. They really need a solid game from Mathews and Tolbert. They have not been good at sticking with the run lately.
New England is winning games but I really think they are a year away at least form becoming a strong playoff team. Don’t get me wrong, they will likely make a playoff run this season but I attribute that to the mediocrity around the NFL. Most teams are just a couple plays each game from beating each other. There are not a lot of truly dominant games. BJGE and Woody are decent flex options.
Final Score: San Diego 27…New England 21
Oakland at Denver (-7) (42.5)
If Jason Campbell is starting again Oakland is in a lot of trouble. This offense does much better when Gradkowski, McFadden, and Murphy are working it out on offense. For Denver about the entire secondary did not practice and also Lloyd and Royal took the day off as well. Not sure who is starting and who isn’t at this point. I do know Kyle Orton is the most talented offensive player on the field this week and even with an iffy performance last week against the Jets you gotta like Orton this week and the offense against Oakland. Raiders are avg about 425 yds on defense the past 3 weeks.
McFadden/Bush – Bush is healthy so he gets the nod but another subpar performance and I would expect a split very soon no matter who is healthy.
Knowshon Moreno – I like him this week. His backups have not done diddly since he left the lineup.
Final Score: Denver 27…Oakland 14
Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) (44.5)
Packers are in a tailspin now as they literally handed the game to Miami last week. I don’t think you can be truly confident in either of these teams however Adrian Peterson should be fine and good to start this week. Miami wasn’t really able to exploit the LBs of GB last week who are pretty gimpy but I expect Peterson to get in there and cause some havoc which should help out Favre who has other things on his mind right now than football.
Brandon Jackson is looking better. Lot of folks are looking for other answers in the GB back field but I think Jackson is going to be the guy even with limited upside who should act as a playable RB2/3 most weeks. I wonder if Green bay will throw to their RB out in the flare 10 times this week like Dallas did. Must be something on film that teams are seeing but I wouldn’t bet on Jackson to get anything close to that in receptions. Look for GB to exploit the deeper parts of the Minnesota secondary.
Final Score: Green Bay 24…Minnesota 21
New York Giants at Dallas (-3) (44.5)
The flags on Dallas for leap frog celebration last week was ridonkulous. I am all for not letting the guys act like total clowns but I thought that celebration was fun to watch and it really cast a cloud over what should have been the game of the week last weekend.
New York is starting to use Brandon Jacobs a little more which takes away some from Bradshaw and makes him more of an RB2 or flex option.
Felix Jones is starting to distance himself a little from MB III but for some reason I have a sneaky feeling that barber rears his head up this week and scores a TD. This is definitely a must win for Dallas, they all are from here on out but they play the Giants the twice in the next 3-4 weeks so their fate is going to be determined by the outcome of these games. If Dallas can somehow scratch and claw to get to 4-4, they might have a chance to right the ship for the 2nd half of the season.
Final Score: Dallas 31…NY Giants 24
Before I sign off I just wanted to also say that the difference between a good match up and a bad match up is very subtle. Very few backs go over 20 points a week, many fall into the 10-15 range and it's refelctive on most credible projections you see week in and week out. FF is supposed to be fun so don't rack your brain too much trying to figure out if Forte or Bradshaw is a better match up. If you can, start both, and if you can't then you must have a great starting RB1 like Peterson or Chris Johnson so relax and enjoy the outdoors. It's a beautiful time of year and nature is calling. What I'm saying is spend time with those you love and don't allow this hobby to become an obsession.
Cheers all and good luck this weekend.
-MOP
Most weeks I simply jump right into the games and try hard to stay on topic but this week I feel compelled to talk about the NFL and what they are doing or not doing with reference to violent hits. I’m not going to weigh in and point the finger and say this player or that player is or isn’t dirty. I will instead echo what Mike Ditka said on the Mike and Mike show this week and sums up partially how I feel . Some 70+ years ago the helmets were much different. We laugh at the leather helmets, the single ring facemask but these players knew if they were to lead with their helmets that they risked a lot of injury to themselves even more than the opposing players. Now the helmets are built like race car or motorcycle helmets and they can be used as weapons which is what many of the players do including some of those fined this week. You want to really cut down on injuries you take away that outer metal part of the helmet. That will never happen because the NFL makes too much GD money on teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the stars on the sides of their helmets. Those huge facemasks that wrap around are symbolic to many of the NFL and they aren’t about to change any of that for the better of the game. The NFL in my opinion doesn’t really care about its players. They simply care about the almighty dollar and this isn’t likely to change as the game keeps adding to its fan base although pretty soon they are going to start losing some such as folks like me. I’m sure it won’t impact them much but I am getting tired of what the NFL is becoming. There are other factors such as the emasculation of the entire league including the media and fans but I’m going to save that speech for another day.
Ready to get to the games? Me too.
Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)
The Steelers are lights out at stopping the run so Ronnie Brown has to be a bench guy this week; Ricky Williams too. The Steelers do allow 233 yds a game thru the air however they have 16 sacks, 8 interceptions vs 3 TDs and because they only allow 2.7 ypc on the ground look for Miami to attempt to take to the air. Maybe Ronnie or Ricky can catch some balls but the RBs in Miami are not the focus of the offense so don’t hold your breath. Ronnie has 13 or fewer carries in 4 of the 5 games this season and is only avg 70 total yds per game.
Medenhall is an autostart at this point. Miami is the league avg of 4.1 ypc on defense. I wouldn’t think about not starting Mendenhall the rest of the season. Even if he is bottled up Big ben will set him up with a couple short plunges most weeks. Mendenhall is going to prosper big time the rest of the way as will most of the Pittsburgh WR/TE corp. I like Pittsburgh to lay it on thick this week and Miami to be exposed for the fraud 3-2 they are.
Pittsburgh 31…Miami 14
Cincinnati at Atlanta (-3.5) (42.5) opened at (-6)
This has the makings of big points this week. Atlanta was exposed in the secondary last week and Cincinnati is not that great at stopping the run which plays to Atlanta’s strength. The Bengals are giving up 4.4 ypc and 111 yds per game on the ground, not awful believe or not, but certainly not lock down. They are a little better in the pass defense department so again I look for Atlanta to try and run the ball as much as possible.
Atlanta is now giving up 240 yds a game thru the air. Carson palmer needs to attack this secondary but he seems like at times he not engage. It’s like Maverick from Tog Gun after Goose dies…get the heck in there and fire GD; you have all the weapons at your disposal and a mini tank in the back field, what is your malfunction soldier? Want osme more tidbits on the Falcons? 68.5 % completion rate they allow for opposing QBs…that’s pathetic. 7.7 yds per attempt. Terrell Owens should be on all cylinders this week. Their rush defense is decent and they have done well at shutting down RBs for the most part.
I still like both Benson and Turner this week, would not hesitate to load either into the chamber.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Atlanta 21 Giving it to Cinci off the bye week.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-4.5) (43)
Here is another where I back the truck up. Jax was a complete fraud and they showed it in the loss to the Titans that beat them with Kerry Collins at the controls. Jacksonville plays about as pathetic as a team would be at say 1-5 so the 3-3 record actually means value on the betting lines.
KC is fresh off back to back losses but they now enter a very soft part of their schedule where they don’t face a team with a winning record until Tennessee on Dec 26th…drinks for everyone!!! I look for some big numbers from Charles and maybe even Thomas Jones this week. MJD will likely be bottled up most of the day although KC is not bullet proof so even though he’s not having a great season I probably still roll with him unless you have a much better option. He only needs to get loose a couple times to inflict damage.
Final Score: Kansas City 28…Jacksonville 14
Philly at Tennessee (-2.5) (44.5)
LeSean McCoy is kind of like Darren McFadden earlier this season. He might not always produce but you just can’t risk sitting him. Also I don’t completely trust Kevin Kolb yet although competition is definitely bringing out his best. This week I would bet they lean on McCoy a little more as they are on the road and the atmosphere is Tennessee is going to be hostile. Titans are 4-2 and they are really starting to get full of themselves with Jeff Fisher running up the score last week to send a message to opposing teams that these guys are serious and they are going to lay the wood to you. They just pound on you each week and you better be ready for a back alley brawl when these guys roll into town. They man handled the Jaguars and they will attempt to do the same thing against Philly. This is one of the better games on the board and I am looking forward to watching it. (When I’m not watching the Bucs for the game recaps of course)
LeSean McCoy
Chris Johnson
Final Score: Tennessee 23…Philly 21
Washington at Chicago (-3) (40)
Both of these teams are pretty average but the Chicago bears front seven IMO is the edge in the games they win. Washington is not nearly as good as Chicago in this department so I think that will allow Cutler and company to operate. Washington also seems to benefit from schemes. Last week they were just standing up and waiting for the Colts to snap the ball and Indy was able to exploit that by running the ball with Addai until he went out in the late 3rd.
Ryan Torrain had a big week last week but he is not part of the passing game as he was off the field when Washington needed a score late. I like Torrain but this week he is going to be held in check. The Bears allow 3.5 ypc and 85 yds a game total on the ground so bench Torrain.
Matt Forte has had 2 big games, 2 middle of the road games, and 2 not so good games yet he is 8th overall in avg points in PPR formats. Like I always say, just a handful of players make the difference during the year. I have a feeling he will have at least a decent day this week, in fact he should rack up some points in the passing game.
Final Score: Chicago 24…Washington 14
Cleveland at New Orleans (-13) (43)
Cleveland’s defense is not that bad. They were holding up OK last week for a while against Pittsburgh. What fails them though is the 25th ranked rushing offense and the 25th ranked passing offense. Their defense isn’t good enough to overcome an offense that is anemic at times and doesn’t have a solid QB right now. They have already started 3 different QBs in 5 or 6 games, that is not what good teams do.
The Saints are allowing 3.9 ypc, their passing defense is not too bad either. They got healthy in a hurry last week against Tampa bay and they might have found their groove to carry them out the next few weeks until they reach their bye. I think Devery Henderson will have one of his monster weeks on 2-3 catches at home. He does a lot of damage there inside the dome and he’s due to have one of those games. Early reports showed Pierre Thomas having a 50/50 chance to start. If he does start or is used I might sit him another week until we can gauge how big a workload they give him. Chris Ivory suddenly looks like a good option for the Saints to shoulder some of the load until Reggie Bush can get back on the field.
P.Hillis – I’m never a big fan but even when they get blown out he seems to find 4-5 receptions to remain relevant.
New Orleans RBs – Track the IR and the Sunday Morning reports.
Final Score: New Orleans 30…Cleveland 14
Buffalo at Baltimore (-13.5) (37.5)
Should be a ratings bonanza. Buffalo is not very good at stopping much. Their rush defense is pretty bad and their pass defense has allowed 11 TDs vs only 1 interception for the year so choose whichever you want to score but you will score on them. The Bills are 29th overall on offense including 31st thru the air.
Baltimore is pretty beat up after they were ahead and coasting last week 20-10 going into the 4th quarter when aliens flew down from above and…oh never mind. I like Ray Rice plenty this week and as far as the Bills go, I don’t like Fred Jackson but Spiller could get loose if the Ravens have a comfortable lead and forget about him.
Final Score: Baltimore 27…Buffalo 9
San Fran at Carolina (+1.5) (35)
One of two things are going to happen. Either these 2 teams will be so inept on offense that we have a 10-6 score or the two offenses that overdue to explode will both get on track thru their backs and we end up with a decent scoring affair and some big points for the RBs this week. Since both teams are actually below the league avg of ypc on defense at 3.8 and 3.9 respectively I am going to assume we get a snore fest. I want to tell you that this is the week for DWill and JStew but it simply is not wise. Gore always catches balls so he is a start. I saw him high on many lists this week.
Final Score: San Fran 16…Carolina 13
St Louis at Tampa Bay (-3) (38)
Tampa Bay is awful at stopping the run. Incredibly, even with a pretty good passing game finally in St Louis and them winning football games they cannot spring Jackson to save his life for long runs. He gets about 25 carries a week for anywhere from 80-100 yards. He isn’t a big factor catching the ball and he almost seems like he is just eating up time to shorten the game rather than busting thru the hole. Perhaps his injury a few weeks back was worse than we’ll ever know or maybe the holes just are not there right now. They don’t even try to share his workload with Darby. And the Bucs…who knows who is running the ball there? Did I hear Huggins is on IR? They need new blood in the back field and right now there isn’t anyone they can even sign to shake things up. Maybe Warrick Dunn could come out of retirement.
Final Score: St Louis 21…Tampa Bay 17 Look for the Rams to win their first road game in a very long time. Bucs are not playing well at the C.I.T.S.
Arizona at Seattle (-5.5) (40.5)
Props to the Seadogs for going on the road and finally winning a football game. Right now they are in the driver seat IMO to take the NFC West which will make Petey look like a genius in his 1st season. How AZ managed to win a couple weeks ago at home against New Orleans which had way more talent and was even ahead 10-0 early…I watched the game and I still can’t explain what happened. Seattle is stingy on rush defense so look for Wells and THT to once again have very mediocre days up at the Nest.
I like Marshawn Lynch this week. He looked pretty good last week and doesn’t know the playbook that well. OK he only avg 2.5 ypc but that is going to improve.
Justin Forsett – Keep an eye on him because he scored a TD and had a much better avg but I think limiting him to 10 carries a game is going to help. He is a decent flex option.
Final Score: Seattle 24…Arizona 16
New England at San Diego (-3) (47)
Just throw the numbers out the window right now. San Diego was running near the top in most statistical categories on both sides of the ball yet they are 2-4 right now. I can’t explain. It. How is Dallas 1-4 with better talent than most other teams they play. I am not a big Norv Turner fan although he is great for most FF owners.
New England’s defense is still pretty suspect but San Diego was hit hard with injuries to Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates, and they have others nursing injuries. They really need a solid game from Mathews and Tolbert. They have not been good at sticking with the run lately.
New England is winning games but I really think they are a year away at least form becoming a strong playoff team. Don’t get me wrong, they will likely make a playoff run this season but I attribute that to the mediocrity around the NFL. Most teams are just a couple plays each game from beating each other. There are not a lot of truly dominant games. BJGE and Woody are decent flex options.
Final Score: San Diego 27…New England 21
Oakland at Denver (-7) (42.5)
If Jason Campbell is starting again Oakland is in a lot of trouble. This offense does much better when Gradkowski, McFadden, and Murphy are working it out on offense. For Denver about the entire secondary did not practice and also Lloyd and Royal took the day off as well. Not sure who is starting and who isn’t at this point. I do know Kyle Orton is the most talented offensive player on the field this week and even with an iffy performance last week against the Jets you gotta like Orton this week and the offense against Oakland. Raiders are avg about 425 yds on defense the past 3 weeks.
McFadden/Bush – Bush is healthy so he gets the nod but another subpar performance and I would expect a split very soon no matter who is healthy.
Knowshon Moreno – I like him this week. His backups have not done diddly since he left the lineup.
Final Score: Denver 27…Oakland 14
Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) (44.5)
Packers are in a tailspin now as they literally handed the game to Miami last week. I don’t think you can be truly confident in either of these teams however Adrian Peterson should be fine and good to start this week. Miami wasn’t really able to exploit the LBs of GB last week who are pretty gimpy but I expect Peterson to get in there and cause some havoc which should help out Favre who has other things on his mind right now than football.
Brandon Jackson is looking better. Lot of folks are looking for other answers in the GB back field but I think Jackson is going to be the guy even with limited upside who should act as a playable RB2/3 most weeks. I wonder if Green bay will throw to their RB out in the flare 10 times this week like Dallas did. Must be something on film that teams are seeing but I wouldn’t bet on Jackson to get anything close to that in receptions. Look for GB to exploit the deeper parts of the Minnesota secondary.
Final Score: Green Bay 24…Minnesota 21
New York Giants at Dallas (-3) (44.5)
The flags on Dallas for leap frog celebration last week was ridonkulous. I am all for not letting the guys act like total clowns but I thought that celebration was fun to watch and it really cast a cloud over what should have been the game of the week last weekend.
New York is starting to use Brandon Jacobs a little more which takes away some from Bradshaw and makes him more of an RB2 or flex option.
Felix Jones is starting to distance himself a little from MB III but for some reason I have a sneaky feeling that barber rears his head up this week and scores a TD. This is definitely a must win for Dallas, they all are from here on out but they play the Giants the twice in the next 3-4 weeks so their fate is going to be determined by the outcome of these games. If Dallas can somehow scratch and claw to get to 4-4, they might have a chance to right the ship for the 2nd half of the season.
Final Score: Dallas 31…NY Giants 24
Before I sign off I just wanted to also say that the difference between a good match up and a bad match up is very subtle. Very few backs go over 20 points a week, many fall into the 10-15 range and it's refelctive on most credible projections you see week in and week out. FF is supposed to be fun so don't rack your brain too much trying to figure out if Forte or Bradshaw is a better match up. If you can, start both, and if you can't then you must have a great starting RB1 like Peterson or Chris Johnson so relax and enjoy the outdoors. It's a beautiful time of year and nature is calling. What I'm saying is spend time with those you love and don't allow this hobby to become an obsession.
Cheers all and good luck this weekend.
-MOP
