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RBs to Exploit-Avoid Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Nother quality write up. Just thought I'd add that San Diego's relatively strong defensive rankings in both pass and run defense yardage allowed are skewed by the 3 return TD's they've allowed. That's a minimum of 9 and probably a maximum of 30 snaps on defense they haven't had to play. On a per play average, they are middle of the road.
Interesting
 
Mathews said he feels like he always does heading into a game. Not sure why he would not play and get the majority of the carries. SD has to win this week, and their D/ST is a tad soft so it's not like they will shut down AZ. Starting Mathews with confidence. Great thread as always.
Their special teams is soft but their defense has been pretty good. Based on the idea that they win the game easily, I don't think Mathews will be overworked. He is listed as questionable I think. Lot of guys talk a good game during the week and then coming off an injury don't do a lot on Sundays. Just something to keep in mind but I wish you luck with Mathews, I have him in the subscriber contest and need him back.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Ryan Mathews (SD) said Wednesday he was not bothered by his right ankle sprain during practice Wednesday, Sept. 29, reports Scott Bair, of the North County Times. Mathews believes he will return to action during Week 4 after missing the team's last game. He said he is feeling good and was able to do everything he typically does during Wednesday's practice. On Thursday, Mathews was taken off the injury report. He practiced as normal on Thursday.

I take this to mean he will be starting and playing as usual, and not limited at all by the injury? How does this change your analysis of SD run game?

 
Another week, another great thread and more RB decisions for yours truly thanks to going stud WR/TE. My choices (start 2, .5 ppr for RB's):

Joseph Addai @ JAC: I too looked up Addai's stats against the Jags and they are definitely uninspiring. This is certainly a game where Indy can get up early and control the game with the run, but this year feels like a Manning 40+ TD pass year and Addai/Brown aren't going to see too many rushing TD's. If Brown is out with the hammy, I think Addai can get 20 touches and that would push him into my starting lineup.

Ahmad Bradshaw vs. CHI: Definitely going against the toughest run D, but Bradshaw was heavily utilized in the passing game last week (well, at least the 1st half) and I feel like the Giants are going to be desperate for a win. Given that, I look for Bradshaw to be on the field as much as possible and the Giants should be able to move the ball in the air (as GB did last week against the Bears). Since he's the main back and not in a time-share, I will probably be rolling out Bradshaw this week, especially considering his consistent start.

Ronnie Brown vs. NE: The wildcat seems to give NE fits and Brown had a passing TD against the Patriots last year. Saw a stat where Brown has thrived in his last couple of MNF games, and being at home should be a recipe for success. I think he'll see 15 carries as MIA tries to play ball-control against the Pats, and with a few catches/goal-line chances Brown has a good shot to post RB2 #'s with RB1 upside if things fall the right way.

Right now I have Addai and Bradshaw penciled in. If I had to rank 50 RB's this week, these 3 would probably be VERY close to each other. I will be monitoring the injury report for Donald Brown's status as he is probably the key factor in whether I roll with Addai or Ronnie Brown. If DBrown is out, Addai will be the play. I'm confident in Bradshaw getting enough touches/opportunity to merit a start. If DBrown plays, I will probably bench Addai and roll with Ronnie Brown.
Ronnie Brown Recovering From Hamstring Injury (FFChamps) Miami Dolphins Running Back, Ronnie Brown, suffered a hamstring injury during Monday Night's loss to the Jets, according to Miami Herald beat writer Armando Salguero.

Analysis: Brown isnt listed on the teams official injury report, but his status the rest of the week is worth monitoring.
Addai has a good history with Jacksonville. He has three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his past five meetings with the Jaguars, who are giving up 115 rushing yards per game. Consider Addai a solid No. 2 Fantasy option
 
Nother quality write up. Just thought I'd add that San Diego's relatively strong defensive rankings in both pass and run defense yardage allowed are skewed by the 3 return TD's they've allowed. That's a minimum of 9 and probably a maximum of 30 snaps on defense they haven't had to play. On a per play average, they are middle of the road.
Interesting
This is one of the more intelligent posts i've read in the last two weeks. Good intuitive info drater.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
atcdav said:
Help me understand the McCoy love. What am I missing?
He's had 2 good games and then last week not so much. I believe he'll be more of a factor this week. I think I just bolded him in black but I'll check. Do you not like him?
I am trying to figure him out. I have made some trade offers for him. but owners treat him like a stud. I looked at last years production. Less than impressive. seems like an average back. I have been offered McCoy for LT and Wells and I am having a hard time justifying it. FBGs rank him as RB7-8, I think ahead of Mendenhall. IDK, I dont get it
 
Seems several teams are taking the belicheck approach to the injury reports and giving misinfo or false info. I am thinking approach RRice with caution, Lammey thinks Palmer is hurt but nothing is being reported. Wells surgery was acknowledged after he returned. I would be cautious with PThomas too. Moreno is another one.

 
BustedKnuckles said:
Addai has a good history with Jacksonville. He has three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his past five meetings with the Jaguars, who are giving up 115 rushing yards per game. Consider Addai a solid No. 2 Fantasy option
Addai should be a good start, especially as it looks like Brown will not play much if at all. Jacksonvill isn't too strong against the run, and the Colts are trying to establish the run early this season. Look for Addai to get about 20 touches, and over 100 plus a TD.
 
nzranger said:
Ministry of Pain said:
drater said:
Nother quality write up. Just thought I'd add that San Diego's relatively strong defensive rankings in both pass and run defense yardage allowed are skewed by the 3 return TD's they've allowed. That's a minimum of 9 and probably a maximum of 30 snaps on defense they haven't had to play. On a per play average, they are middle of the road.
Interesting
This is one of the more intelligent posts i've read in the last two weeks. Good intuitive info drater.
Agreed. This is why I like the interaction with the Shark Pool. I still am betting the house on San Diego this weekend.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
atcdav said:
Help me understand the McCoy love. What am I missing?
He's had 2 good games and then last week not so much. I believe he'll be more of a factor this week. I think I just bolded him in black but I'll check. Do you not like him?
I am trying to figure him out. I have made some trade offers for him. but owners treat him like a stud. I looked at last years production. Less than impressive. seems like an average back. I have been offered McCoy for LT and Wells and I am having a hard time justifying it. FBGs rank him as RB7-8, I think ahead of Mendenhall. IDK, I dont get it
Gotcha, now I understand. Anytime a RB has a mutiple TD day like McCoy had in week2 (3TDs) you're not going to get a deal. I bet McFadden for example is going for a pretty solid RB plus another player right now. We like to think in terms of our fellow SP folks here, but many softer leagues it's "what have you done for me lately" and that usually means a premium.

 
nzranger said:
Ministry of Pain said:
drater said:
Nother quality write up. Just thought I'd add that San Diego's relatively strong defensive rankings in both pass and run defense yardage allowed are skewed by the 3 return TD's they've allowed. That's a minimum of 9 and probably a maximum of 30 snaps on defense they haven't had to play. On a per play average, they are middle of the road.
Interesting
This is one of the more intelligent posts i've read in the last two weeks. Good intuitive info drater.
It's nice to see someone look beyond "totals" and delve into "context" without getting reamed by everyone. Nice work. :football:
 
nzranger said:
Ministry of Pain said:
drater said:
Nother quality write up. Just thought I'd add that San Diego's relatively strong defensive rankings in both pass and run defense yardage allowed are skewed by the 3 return TD's they've allowed. That's a minimum of 9 and probably a maximum of 30 snaps on defense they haven't had to play. On a per play average, they are middle of the road.
Interesting
This is one of the more intelligent posts i've read in the last two weeks. Good intuitive info drater.
It's nice to see someone look beyond "totals" and delve into "context" without getting reamed by everyone. Nice work. :hot:
Now if we could just transfer some of this type of intelligent reasoning/conversation and "looking behind the curtain" to the Javhid Best threads.. :hot:
 
Louisville Slugger said:
I love your weekly analysis, but I have to disagree with the Patriots/Dolphins prediction. The Patriots defense made the Bills look like the Joe Montana era 49ers last Sunday. I think the Dolphins will be able to throw on the Pat's which will open up the running game for Brown and Williams.I look for the two rb's and Chad Henne to have big days. Check out what they did to the Patriots last season.I look for a pretty high scoring game that the Dolphins win. Even when the Patriots had an elite team they had a tough time in Miami.
Ugh! There is a guy EVERY WEEK who seems to think it's ok to quote the entire post! Please, for the sake of all that's good and holy, do not quote his ENTIRE post when replying. The world thanks you!
 
Some things to think about...don't fall asleep this weekend.

Miami-Ronnie Brown rumored to have had an injury suffered in the Jets game but not listed on the IR

Cincinnati- Benson is supposed to play but there was an injury there. How affective?

Cleveland - Bloom just tweeted out some interesting stuff from the OC...might still be RBBC depending on the hot hand.

Baltimore- Rice...I still don't trust him going against Pitt

Indy - I think Addai will play but they did work out a couple guys earlier this week and Brown is out which leaves only Mike Hart

San Diego- Mathews says he is playing but I've heard this from other players before. High ankle sprain in less than 2 weeks...how high was it, his shin?

Washington - Got any guesses who is going to start and get the majority of touches?

Green Bay - Kuhn...Jackson...Jackson...Kuhn?

Detroit - Will Best be able to play?

Carolina - DeAngelo will avg 6 yds, Stewart will somehow get more carries, and Goodsen is the 3rd down back.

New Orleans - Pierre Thomas took a vicious bend last week.

Arizona - What do you think? Hightower looks better but Wells is the annointed one, right?

Bye weeks complicate things but there are at least 4-5+ teams you want nothing to do with. Add in 4 teams on a bye...we're down to about 20-22 teams to find 2 starting RBs on spread over 12-16 owner leagues? Tell me I'm wrong here.

 
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Some things to think about...don't fall asleep this weekend. Miami-Ronnie Brown rumored to have had an injury suffered in the Jets game but not listed on the IRCincinnati- Benson is supposed to play but there was an injury there. How affective?Cleveland - Bloom just tweeted out some interesting stuff from the OC...might still be RBBC depending on the hot hand. Baltimore- Rice...I still don't trust him going against PittIndy - I think Addai will play but they did work out a couple guys earlier this week and Brown is out which leaves only Mike HartSan Diego- Mathews says he is playing but I've heard this from other players before. High ankle sprain in less than 2 weeks...how high was it, his shin?Washington - Got any guesses who is going to start and get the majority of touches?Green Bay - Kuhn...Jackson...Jackson...Kuhn?Detroit - Will Best be able to play?Carolina - DeAngelo will avg 6 yds, Stewart will somehow get more carries, and Goodsen is the 3rd down back. New Orleans - Pierre Thomas took a vicious bend last week. Arizona - What do you think? Hightower looks better but Wells is the annointed one, right?
And Darren McFadden is a nice, reliable fantasy RB. Welcome to Bizarro Fantasy Football. :thumbdown:
 
not worried about hillis in CLE. this is coach speak. harrison and hillis are different backs and they trying to throw cincy off of who to plan for. no big deal.

 
MOP, with Kiwanukwa out and Umenyiora questionable, does this do anything to your predictions for the CHI NYG game? I'm pretty sure the line dropped to NYG -3 1/2, do you expect Cutler and the Bears to pull out the victory now? Those two guys are obviously a huge part of the Giants pass rush and the team does seem to be in disarray...

 
Carolina - DeAngelo will avg 6 yds, Stewart will somehow get more carries, and Goodsen is the 3rd down back.

Bye weeks complicate things but there are at least 4-5+ teams you want nothing to do with. Add in 4 teams on a bye...we're down to about 20-22 teams to find 2 starting RBs on spread over 12-16 owner leagues? Tell me I'm wrong here.
Is anyone worried about the above situations?
I hope you are correct about the D Williams thoughts above.....out of all the situations you listed there, this is the only one that affects any of my fantasy teams. I'm starting him, but have little else on the bench to use. Scratch that - I just checked and I have Forsett to put in his place, but I don't think I'll do that.You are not wrong about the limitations of finding 2 quality starting RB's this week. If you haven't done your homework and worked the waiver wire as needed you are likely in a bit of trouble at the position. Luckily, I'm finding myself in good situations in all but one of my leagues. An owner who doesn't pay attention early and often enough is likely SOL this week.

Thanks MOP for this weekly write up. I appreciate you taking the time to do it. :lmao: I don't always get an opportunity to peruse it and comment, but it is something I generally look for if I have enough time.

Rody

 
Green Bay - Kuhn...Jackson...Jackson...Kuhn?Detroit - Will Best be able to play?
As a Packers fan, I think Kuhn is the one to go with this week, unless you're in a PPR league. I think the comparison to Hillis is valid. Kuhn is not shifty, not fast, but he is a load and is a good short yardage back with decent enough hands. I was looking to see more screens to Jackson on MNF, but the speed of Chicago's LBs nullified that option. I don't think Detroit's LB'ing corp is as good. I also don't think this will be a blowout win for GB, although I think they will win. Detroit has some reason for hope, they have a lot of talent on that offense. Glad their offensive line isn't straight just yet.Also a Best owner here. All this talk of turf toe has me concerned. Normally I'd start him this week, not because I think they'll run well against GB, but because I'm in a PPR and I think pass catching RBs usually do decent against GB. I think I'll be going Bradshaw/McCoy this week.Speaking of McCoy (at least in PPR terms), he sure looked impressive week 1 against a good run D. I think having Vick in there helps McCoy. Unfortunately I think Andy Reid comes from the Mike Holmgren school of running just enough to set up the throw. I'm curious to hear from Redskins fans on how their run D is holding up.*edit, One more thing on Kuhn/Jackson...I don't think Jackson will score a TD this week unless it's from outside the red zone. They tend to throw to Finley/Jennings/FB in the red zone. I'm not sure, but I don't think they even have a rushing TD this year...I would love to be wrong though, we need better rushing production.
 
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Hey MOP... Great posting as always! :goodposting:

Curious about your comments on the STL RB's though -- Darby seems to be a interesting prospect this week with Jackson still iffy... He also seems to be available on many waiver-wires from what I understand... This is what I just pulled off Sportsline:

"Darby had all of 301 rushing yards in his first three NFL seasons. Clearly, Week 3 proved to be the most extensive work of his career. Week 4 might be even more if Jackson is unavailable or limited. The Seahawks are holding running backs to just 2.8 yards per carry and have allowed just two rushing TDs to RBs. It's not an overly favorable matchup for the Rams, but if Darby is the feature back for Week 4, he could end up as a sleeper start since he will get a fair amount of carries."

What is your elaborated take on this kid? Given the many injuries around the league, is this a decent flex possibility this week for owners in that format?

Thanks again for your efforts -- I know what you do is a lot of work!!

 
Arizona - What do you think? Hightower looks better but Wells is the annointed one, right?
Hightower looked better in weeks one and two - not in week three when Wells returned and looked very good in limited carries.I think Wells gets the majority of the carries this week in San Diego.......BUT they will likely be playing from behind - maybe way behind - so Hightower will still be playable, especially in PPR leagues
 
Arizona - What do you think? Hightower looks better but Wells is the annointed one, right?
Not sure what you mean by Hightower looks better. I cant remember any extended period where Hightower looked like the better RB than Wells - its just been about injury (and to a degree consistency) with Wells.If Wells could ever stay healthy, his talent provides for a lot of upside. I think it is his talent that is reason for annointment... but he needs to take the opportunity and stay on the field. In terms of this week, it seems that Wells should get a slight majority of carries and he did practice in full by week's end. That plus his raw talent would lend fact to a decent start with tempered expectations. But for this week he would seem to be the only startable back of the two outside of deep PPR leagues, imo.
 
FWIW, I think Jason Snelling could be a sneaky good play this week.

Turner had 30 carries last week and is probably blown out. ATL is at home against the 49ers and if this game goes ATL's way, the 49ers could get deflated and ATL could look to kill the clock using Snelling. Even if it's closer for a while, I think Snelling gets a lot of looks in the passing game.

 
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MOP, with Kiwanukwa out and Umenyiora questionable, does this do anything to your predictions for the CHI NYG game? I'm pretty sure the line dropped to NYG -3 1/2, do you expect Cutler and the Bears to pull out the victory now? Those two guys are obviously a huge part of the Giants pass rush and the team does seem to be in disarray...
It smells of elderberries
 
Carolina - DeAngelo will avg 6 yds, Stewart will somehow get more carries, and Goodsen is the 3rd down back.

Bye weeks complicate things but there are at least 4-5+ teams you want nothing to do with. Add in 4 teams on a bye...we're down to about 20-22 teams to find 2 starting RBs on spread over 12-16 owner leagues? Tell me I'm wrong here.
Is anyone worried about the above situations?
I hope you are correct about the D Williams thoughts above.....out of all the situations you listed there, this is the only one that affects any of my fantasy teams. I'm starting him, but have little else on the bench to use. Scratch that - I just checked and I have Forsett to put in his place, but I don't think I'll do that.You are not wrong about the limitations of finding 2 quality starting RB's this week. If you haven't done your homework and worked the waiver wire as needed you are likely in a bit of trouble at the position. Luckily, I'm finding myself in good situations in all but one of my leagues. An owner who doesn't pay attention early and often enough is likely SOL this week.

Thanks MOP for this weekly write up. I appreciate you taking the time to do it. :rolleyes: I don't always get an opportunity to peruse it and comment, but it is something I generally look for if I have enough time.

Rody
:lmao: Muchos gracias

 
Hey MOP... Great posting as always! :rolleyes: Curious about your comments on the STL RB's though -- Darby seems to be a interesting prospect this week with Jackson still iffy... He also seems to be available on many waiver-wires from what I understand... This is what I just pulled off Sportsline:"Darby had all of 301 rushing yards in his first three NFL seasons. Clearly, Week 3 proved to be the most extensive work of his career. Week 4 might be even more if Jackson is unavailable or limited. The Seahawks are holding running backs to just 2.8 yards per carry and have allowed just two rushing TDs to RBs. It's not an overly favorable matchup for the Rams, but if Darby is the feature back for Week 4, he could end up as a sleeper start since he will get a fair amount of carries."What is your elaborated take on this kid? Given the many injuries around the league, is this a decent flex possibility this week for owners in that format?Thanks again for your efforts -- I know what you do is a lot of work!!
Seattle rush defense has been stingy
 
Arizona - What do you think? Hightower looks better but Wells is the annointed one, right?
Not sure what you mean by Hightower looks better. I cant remember any extended period where Hightower looked like the better RB than Wells - its just been about injury (and to a degree consistency) with Wells.If Wells could ever stay healthy, his talent provides for a lot of upside. I think it is his talent that is reason for annointment... but he needs to take the opportunity and stay on the field. In terms of this week, it seems that Wells should get a slight majority of carries and he did practice in full by week's end. That plus his raw talent would lend fact to a decent start with tempered expectations. But for this week he would seem to be the only startable back of the two outside of deep PPR leagues, imo.
I think Hightower looked outstanding when he played in weeks 1 and 2. I could be wrong but I saw a guy aiming for more playing time. Fumbles hurt but he seems more explosive.
 
Green Bay - Kuhn...Jackson...Jackson...Kuhn?

Detroit - Will Best be able to play?
As a Packers fan, I think Kuhn is the one to go with this week, unless you're in a PPR league. I think the comparison to Hillis is valid. Kuhn is not shifty, not fast, but he is a load and is a good short yardage back with decent enough hands. I was looking to see more screens to Jackson on MNF, but the speed of Chicago's LBs nullified that option. I don't think Detroit's LB'ing corp is as good. I also don't think this will be a blowout win for GB, although I think they will win. Detroit has some reason for hope, they have a lot of talent on that offense. Glad their offensive line isn't straight just yet.Also a Best owner here. All this talk of turf toe has me concerned. Normally I'd start him this week, not because I think they'll run well against GB, but because I'm in a PPR and I think pass catching RBs usually do decent against GB. I think I'll be going Bradshaw/McCoy this week.

Speaking of McCoy (at least in PPR terms), he sure looked impressive week 1 against a good run D. I think having Vick in there helps McCoy. Unfortunately I think Andy Reid comes from the Mike Holmgren school of running just enough to set up the throw. I'm curious to hear from Redskins fans on how their run D is holding up.

*edit, One more thing on Kuhn/Jackson...I don't think Jackson will score a TD this week unless it's from outside the red zone. They tend to throw to Finley/Jennings/FB in the red zone. I'm not sure, but I don't think they even have a rushing TD this year...I would love to be wrong though, we need better rushing production.
The Lions can do one thing really well on defense, bring heat with their front 4. I'm thinking Jackson may see alot of dump off passes and should rack up some yards and a good chance of a receiving TD.
 
...

Washington at Philadelphia (-6) (42.5)

I think the media is more excite about this and maybe the fans in Philadelphia. On paper this should really be a game where Philly crushes Washington who just lost by 2 touchdowns to St Louis last week. Sure I'm gonna watch the game but I don't feel like it will be overly competitive.

Clinton Portis/Ryan Torrain – Washington has quickly become another team to add to a growing list where you don't want to start any of their backs. They are useless most of the time. Portis has 7 carries for roughly 40-45 yards last week and then didn't touch the ball in the 2nd half. What is Shanny doing? I would avoid it unless Portis is going to start and get the lion's share, but how can you trust anything he or Shanny will say.

LeSean McCoy – Pretty quiet day last week. I would expect him to rebound this week and be more involved in the offense but right now this is the Michael Vick show and Philly looks to want to put the ball in Vick's hands as often as possible. McCoy remains a must start most weeks in my opinion. He has upside.

Final Score: Philadelphia 24…Washington 17 ...
What if Torain gets the lion's share?

WAS had 17 runs vs STL out of 50 total plays.

I think in this game Shanahan returns some run/pass balance.

After the 1st quarter (not the 1st half) Torain had 7 touches/targets, Portis had one (that one was in the 2nd half).

The Philly game may be wild, but I think WAS stays in this one and maybe Torain gets some opportunities and maybe a shot at a TD.

 
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Really having a hard time deciding between Best and DWill. Carolina is such a mess, but Best's toe worries me.

Should DWill just take a spot at the end of my bench until he puts up at least one solid game?

 
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Ryan Mathews the only "source" saying he had a HAS? Why are most people willing to believe that self-diagnosis? His activity post-injury suggests it was not a HAS... Just curious.

 
New Orleans- I would avoid. With Pierre Thomas out I don't like either RB. Look for a heavy dose of the pass. Henderson, Morre, and Colston to the rescue.

Washington- I like Ryan Torrain to see a lot of action.

San Diego - I still feel like if they get a lead which I expect that in the 2nd half you won' see a lot of Mathews who is still coming off an injury. Maybe he is good as new but I think you'e rolling the dice there.

Denver - I don't like anything they are offering today in the running game.

Baltimore - Rice might be starting but Pittsburgh has been lights out on run defense

 
Any suggestions on Indy rb situation? Will Addai play enough to be worthwhile or Is Hart the start this week.
I'm starting him in one league where I have few other options...I could grab Torrain but Addai even in limited work should get about 10-12 points PPR. He will be part of the passing game which is without Garcon and Gonzalez again.
 
I tried to tell you guys about Ray Rice...I guess he might still see some action, maybe he re-aggrivated the injury but one of the things I was reading this week was "ASAP" from Rice...

Baltimore was going to act like he was playing no matter what...big game against Pittsburgh. I'm not gonna go back and quote folks in here but I took a beating by a few posters about not trumpeting Ray Rice this week...

 
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Addai has a good history with Jacksonville. He has three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his past five meetings with the Jaguars, who are giving up 115 rushing yards per game. Consider Addai a solid No. 2 Fantasy option
Addai should be a good start, especially as it looks like Brown will not play much if at all. Jacksonvill isn't too strong against the run, and the Colts are trying to establish the run early this season. Look for Addai to get about 20 touches, and over 100 plus a TD.
Pretty close...
 

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