Recent developments that have altered player value (1 Viewer)

[thehornet]

I have noticed just over the past two weeks that a lot is changing, especially in the RB landscape. Sure, some if it is coachspeak but other sutff is genuinely stuff to be concerned about. A few that I have maredly noticed are as follows:

1. Ray Rice is the lead dog. He is getting all of the first team work, McGahee is running with 2nd team, McClain has onyl 3 carries on te preseason, McGahee probably getting the boot after this year and Rice has been in on goal line packages. Couple all of that with the coaches being openly verbal about their endorsement of Rice and I think we have seen a dramatic shift in the Ravens backfield. Rice is rocketing up drafts and deservedly so.

2. New Orleans RB's situation. Mike Bell's emergence, PT's injury and Bush's seemingly healthy knee have all of a sudden made the backfield a minefield. PT should still be looking at 200 carries or so, but Mike Bell has proved to be more than adequate at different points of his career. He has slimmed down from the wieght he put on as a fullback for Shanny in Denver and looks sharp in preseason. Bush is going to get carries, maybe around 100. It doesnt seem like much, but it will split up the pie that much more.

3. Greg Jones emerence as more than just fullback duty. Remeber, before this guy had his 2nd ACL surgery he was in line for a bigger bulk of carries. He is healthy again and that night be enough for the coaches to use him at the GL. Face it, MJD is the lead back and no one is disputing that, but if the coaches want to keep him fresh for the ENTIRE season, then it might be in their best interest not to pound him into the line at the GL for 16 weeks in a row. THis situtation isnt as concerning as the others, but certainly one to monitor very closely for MJD owner.

4. James Davis, while a late roiund pick and probably nothing more than career backup, is turning heads with his quickness and sure-headedness. Jamal is an old dude and the slightest signs of a major dropoff will probably mean a swith from Jamal as the main guy to a 3 headed monster as well. Harrison is a superb change of pace back and Davis is eager. THis backfield never looked like a fantasy dream in the first place, but someone might emerge as the clear cut starter if Jamal falters. Im interested.....

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

Other backfields of concern are Jets and Broncos and i will do a write up later.

6. The Jets RB field also is a very tough one to gauge, but I'm not sure how much draft values between the 3 runnung backs has changed in the past month like some of the other scenarios. Tom Jones is getting up there and age, but he was the afc leading rusher last year. That is pretty amazing if you aske me. Maybe he was working his tail off be cause he knows it's his very last chance at a paycheck of a sizeable portion. Even with that, I dont see him getting a big raise in the offseason. Leon has been getting hyped since the middle of last season, so I dont think his draft value has changed too much lately. I think he is going where he should be going and there is potential for him to outperform his modest ADP should anything happen to TJ. I think his incentive for a large contract will make him work OVERTIME. I dont consider Greene to be as talented as most of the running backs that have come out over the past 2 years, but he will certainly get some time to prove his worth.

One more thing of note: I have never been one to downgrade a backfield based on the QB play. By now, it is factual that Sanchez has been named the starter. Whereas I certainly do not think this is a GOOD thing, I also do not think this is catastrophic either. The Jets will run the ball and I dont think the line is horrific. Very mediocre actually. Dont let the Rookie scare you away too much. In closing, I think TJ is a little overvalued in drafts, Leon is about right with good upside and Greene is a flier with average upside.

7. Denver is a tough call for me in particular. I LOVE Moreno, but couldnt scoop him in any of my drafts. I dont know if this was because I was hyping him so hard pre-injury and I thought it was going to take a 3rd round pick in redrafts OR if my thoughts were muddied post-injury when i didnt want to spend a 6th or 7th round pick on a guy who could come out a little tentative in a clear time share. Either way, I missed out and I am a littl more than bummed about it. I think Moreno is hands down the Back to own here, but I really have no thoughts on his ADP - could go as high as 35 or low as 90. I just dont know. I think Hillis is once again in dark-horse territory because as camp has worn on, McDaniels is really getting a nice glimpse of what he is working with. Jordan is ALMOST cooked and goal line is his only home left. Bucky is a nice chage up but seriously, how much value can he have? He wont carry more than 10 times a game barring a breakdown of the RB stable like last year. At the end of the day though, it all goes back to Knowshon. He will the horse to own when the year is out. It's just your call how early to snag him. Hillis seems to have great lowround potential, especially if we see injuries and breakdowns.

8. New England is ALSO murky. For anyone that has followed the Pats during the Belicheck Era, this is nothing new. i am a native of Boston and I consider the Pats my favorite team, but I cannot not say with any amount of certainty that there is a lead back in this field. Actually, you probably didnt even need me to tell you that There are 4 running backs on this team that can get the job done for BB, but probably not the way us fantasy footballers consider getting it done. Apparently, Maroney is the starter by default. Whether he is in BB's doghouse or not, I haven't the slightest idea. I just don't see any back getting more than 12 carries per game on ANY given week CONSISTENTLY. Morris can work from the goal line, Faulk can work 3rd down as well as ANY and EVERY single passing play necessary. Maroney will be in the mix between the 20's but I wouldn't look for his number too much inside the redzone. Strangely, i can actually see Fragile Fred being the most produuctive back in NE this year, right up therre with K Faulk. I think he offers 50% of what BB wants as long as he doesnt hesitate to hit the hole and move the chains. The other 50% belongs to Faulk in the passing game because let's face it, this is a major league passing team and BB needs a back that doesnt bobble the ball. As far as each back's ADP and value, I think things are fairly accurate. Fred and Keving are nice RB4's or 5's in the45-50 ADP range and they have the potential to be more than that if injuries strike. I have no faith in Maroney. I think the NE brass is done with him and he will be gone soon. I wouldn't touch him even at his pitful ADP. Morris will vulture TD's but is nothing more than a byew week filler in deeper leagues, imo.

 

[David Yudkin]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

 

[TheNext0]

I actually have vested interest in 3 of those guys (Portis, Davis, and Rice).

I'm cautiously optimistic with Rice, but I'll need to see another preseason game before I start really freaking out over him. I'm still skeptical that the goal line job is his.

Portis, I'm a little worried about. I hope using Betts keeps him fresh during games and gives the Skins another dimension on offense. I fully expect a drop in receptions for CP, though.

My gut tells me the James Davis hype is too good to be true. Jerome Harrison is nicked up, and Jamal is getting old, but I'd still be very surprised to see this guy get his hands on the starting job. I thought Mangini didn't use Leon Washington enough last year...could be a similar situation here.

Speaking of Leon Washington, he has looked really good this preseason and hopefully will force the Jets hand to give him the ball more. Interested to see your take on the NYJ backfield.

 

[thehornet]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

Emmit Smith is a freak. It's very likely that no one will ever approach 4400 rushing carries ever again.

 

[Buffaloes]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

I agree with this. I remember hearing similar things in past preseasons about Betts picking more of the workload, yada yada.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

Emmit Smith is a freak. It's very likely that no one will ever approach 4400 rushing carries ever again.

Regardless, Portis will still only be 28 when the season starts. I've never seen a statistical analysis that proved # of carries is a clear indicator a RB's production will decline. Age? Yes. # of carries? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced.

 

[thehornet]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

Emmit Smith is a freak. It's very likely that no one will ever approach 4400 rushing carries ever again.

Regardless, Portis will still only be 28 when the season starts. I've never seen a statistical analysis that proved # of carries is a clear indicator a RB's production will decline. Age? Yes. # of carries? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced.

I agree with you guys to an extent, but this is the first year that I have really ever gave it a little more thought. AT SOME POINT, we need to stop saying that Portis is steady, portis is the safe pick, portis is as safe as it comes - because at some point players hit a danger zone. I like to use carries a gauge instead of age. Portis started as a full time NFL running back at a much younger age than most. Go look at when LJ started a full time gig for comparison sake. Portis being 28 is menaingless to me. He has one of the highelst workloads of all active starting running backs. Over 2000 carries is a good point to start thinking, "when's the drop off going to start?"

 

[Ray]

I like to use carries a gauge instead of age. Portis started as a full time NFL running back at a much younger age than most. Go look at when LJ started a full time gig for comparison sake. Portis being 28 is menaingless to me. He has one of the highelst workloads of all active starting running backs. Over 2000 carries is a good point to start thinking, "when's the drop off going to start?"

There is a lot better data to back age drop off than there is to back # of carries drop off.If you're counting the carries Portis had since he was 20, are you also counting the carries LJ had in college?

 

[moviedude25]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

Emmit Smith is a freak. It's very likely that no one will ever approach 4400 rushing carries ever again.

Regardless, Portis will still only be 28 when the season starts. I've never seen a statistical analysis that proved # of carries is a clear indicator a RB's production will decline. Age? Yes. # of carries? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced.

I agree with you guys to an extent, but this is the first year that I have really ever gave it a little more thought. AT SOME POINT, we need to stop saying that Portis is steady, portis is the safe pick, portis is as safe as it comes - because at some point players hit a danger zone. I like to use carries a gauge instead of age. Portis started as a full time NFL running back at a much younger age than most. Go look at when LJ started a full time gig for comparison sake. Portis being 28 is menaingless to me. He has one of the highelst workloads of all active starting running backs. Over 2000 carries is a good point to start thinking, "when's the drop off going to start?"

The Skins are my team and your right. One thing that I've noticed about this preseason in regards to Portis is his demeanor. Normally he's crazy at camp with his races against other players and his character get ups. This worries me more then the stupid talk about his age, the man's 28 or his carries, sure it's a lot but the man's a consistant 1500yard running back and one of the only men who has a lock on his job and not splitting carries, never try and time a stocks drop or you'll miss more gains. Before speculating on things like his demise I suggest backing it up with more then just that. However his attitude change is noticed which I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing yet. I'm still taking #26, the man with a Superbowl ring is a hall of famer in my eyes

 

[swirvenirvin]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

 

[thehornet]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

 

[thehornet]

I like to use carries a gauge instead of age. Portis started as a full time NFL running back at a much younger age than most. Go look at when LJ started a full time gig for comparison sake. Portis being 28 is menaingless to me. He has one of the highelst workloads of all active starting running backs. Over 2000 carries is a good point to start thinking, "when's the drop off going to start?"

There is a lot better data to back age drop off than there is to back # of carries drop off.If you're counting the carries Portis had since he was 20, are you also counting the carries LJ had in college?

There is only better data because there is more of it Face it Portis is something off a phenmenon in RB's. It's not typical to see a 20 year old come in and dominate for the next 8 seasons with 300+ carries per over all of those seasons. I just dont think age is the best indicator when looking at Protis specifically when gauging when his dropoff will come.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

Good point and Rice moves up my draft list in keeper leagues now

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

This is my feeling as well. I like the guy, he's been money for a long time... but I just get an uneasy feeling about him.Nothing predictive, I'll just probably pass on him for somebody else in hie tier. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go another couple of seasons as a top 10 RB.... but it wouldn't surprise me to see him break down and start missing games.

 

[thehornet]

I actually have vested interest in 3 of those guys (Portis, Davis, and Rice). I'm cautiously optimistic with Rice, but I'll need to see another preseason game before I start really freaking out over him. I'm still skeptical that the goal line job is his.Portis, I'm a little worried about. I hope using Betts keeps him fresh during games and gives the Skins another dimension on offense. I fully expect a drop in receptions for CP, though.My gut tells me the James Davis hype is too good to be true. Jerome Harrison is nicked up, and Jamal is getting old, but I'd still be very surprised to see this guy get his hands on the starting job. I thought Mangini didn't use Leon Washington enough last year...could be a similar situation here.Speaking of Leon Washington, he has looked really good this preseason and hopefully will force the Jets hand to give him the ball more. Interested to see your take on the NYJ backfield.

I think cautiously optimistic is the best way to go with Rice. You hit it right on the head. Some of the other posters might jump on you about that approach/feeling/style, but i think it is the best one. I also believe the James Davis hype to be somewhat of a mirage myself. Another poster EBF summed it up niceley in the "Why is James Davis being ignored" thread. basically, late round RB picks need to prove it on the filed for him to really got on board. I also think this is a an excellent approach when trying to gauge where you should be drafting/auctioning Davis/Lewis/Harrison.I update the first thread with a little piece on Denver and NY Jets. I'll touch on New England a little later on today.

 

[David Yudkin]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

Were they bumps and bruises type injuries or things that required major surgeries and long recoveries? Looking at the injury reports from last year: A calf strainA bruised handBack spasmsA neck stinger and stiff neckA sprained wristBruised ribsA strained obliqueA sprained MCLA bone bruise to his legA sprained ankleA hip flexorNone of those were major injuries and all of them should be long gone. Didn't his OL also have a rash of injuries? Basically, he was nicked up the entire season (it is football not croquet) and still had almost 1500 rushing yards.

 

[thehornet]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

Were they bumps and bruises type injuries or things that required major surgeries and long recoveries? Looking at the injury reports from last year: A calf strainA bruised handBack spasmsA neck stinger and stiff neckA sprained wristBruised ribsA strained obliqueA sprained MCLA bone bruise to his legA sprained ankleA hip flexorNone of those were major injuries and all of them should be long gone. Didn't his OL also have a rash of injuries? Basically, he was nicked up the entire season (it is football not croquet) and still had almost 1500 rushing yards.

While these weren't clear cut season ending injuries, I tihnk it goes a long way in stating that a player's durability is waning. Would you actaully suggest that these are positive signs coming from a running back who has over 2000 career rushing attempts? Wearing down doesnt have to be a broken foot type injury like Shaun Alexander that pretty much ended his career. It can be a slow assault on the body that finally says, "Enough!" AS you alluded too, this isnt craquet, and with every passing hit by a 320 Lb lineman, the body takes a little longer to recover and it is certainly more taxing each time. That being said, Portis at a high 2nd rounder isnt exactly enticing when you consider Betts is a more than serviceable backup. If you were the coach of the Redskins, wouldnt you want to at least attempt to keep those various nicks and pains to a minimum? by giving Betts 30-40% of the carries, I think you go a long way in prolonging the life of your backfield.

 

[TheFanatic]

I actually have vested interest in 3 of those guys (Portis, Davis, and Rice).

I'm cautiously optimistic with Rice, but I'll need to see another preseason game before I start really freaking out over him. I'm still skeptical that the goal line job is his.

Portis, I'm a little worried about. I hope using Betts keeps him fresh during games and gives the Skins another dimension on offense. I fully expect a drop in receptions for CP, though.

My gut tells me the James Davis hype is too good to be true. Jerome Harrison is nicked up, and Jamal is getting old, but I'd still be very surprised to see this guy get his hands on the starting job. I thought Mangini didn't use Leon Washington enough last year...could be a similar situation here.

Speaking of Leon Washington, he has looked really good this preseason and hopefully will force the Jets hand to give him the ball more. Interested to see your take on the NYJ backfield.

This is what I've been thinking more and more. It just seems like it's too good to be true or something. Like if I order in the next 30 minutes I get a set of steak knives as well...

 

[David Yudkin]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

Were they bumps and bruises type injuries or things that required major surgeries and long recoveries? Looking at the injury reports from last year: A calf strainA bruised handBack spasmsA neck stinger and stiff neckA sprained wristBruised ribsA strained obliqueA sprained MCLA bone bruise to his legA sprained ankleA hip flexorNone of those were major injuries and all of them should be long gone. Didn't his OL also have a rash of injuries? Basically, he was nicked up the entire season (it is football not croquet) and still had almost 1500 rushing yards.

While these weren't clear cut season ending injuries, I tihnk it goes a long way in stating that a player's durability is waning. Would you actaully suggest that these are positive signs coming from a running back who has over 2000 career rushing attempts? Wearing down doesnt have to be a broken foot type injury like Shaun Alexander that pretty much ended his career. It can be a slow assault on the body that finally says, "Enough!" AS you alluded too, this isnt craquet, and with every passing hit by a 320 Lb lineman, the body takes a little longer to recover and it is certainly more taxing each time. That being said, Portis at a high 2nd rounder isnt exactly enticing when you consider Betts is a more than serviceable backup. If you were the coach of the Redskins, wouldnt you want to at least attempt to keep those various nicks and pains to a minimum? by giving Betts 30-40% of the carries, I think you go a long way in prolonging the life of your backfield.

Except the team said it will explore playing Betts more in a third down role (ie Kevin Faulk in passing situations). So Portis may stay fresher by not blocking an extra down but may not see a lot fewer carries. So no, I don't see Betts getting 30-40% of the carries. If anything, Betts should see more receptions.IMO, what's being missed is that the year Portis what hurt and Betts did so well the OL was healthy and Betts benefited. Last year, the OL was hurt and Portis suffered. I would be much more concerned if Portis had all those injuries AND DIDN'T PLAY.I think part of the reason Portis' injuries became newsworthy is that he and Zorn didn't see eye to eye, so Portis looked for ways to stir the pot some. It got him out of practice and away from disagreeing with his coach on a lot of things involving the team and the offense. We shall see if that continues to be a problem, but at least it sounds like the two have kissed and made up.As for Portis, I don't see him getting almost 350 carries again as that's a high number to predict for anyone. But I don't see why he wouldn't get 300 carries, maybe even 325.

 

[Wadsworth]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

It all depends how he plays this year doesn't it? Rice is a good looking young prospect but a lot people seem to think that McGahee is just going to disappear into the sunset. He's only 27 years old and is very talented runner.

 

[Todem]

Portis started like a blaze of fire last year...then the lack of him being able to recover quickly from the grind of being a workhorse took it's toll on his production. He did not look himself towards the end of last season.

I am a huge Portis fan. But I think we will see one more season of top 10-15 production this season....and that is it. He looks like to me a guy who is finally hitting the wall. I don't look at age or carries...I just watch how they play. Portis plays the game fast and hard. That became less apparent last season as it wore on. He just flat out slowed down at some point last season. In a redraft he presents some good value if he falls to the late second round (which would be hard to believe). Dynasty wise I can't tell you how many Portis offers I have recieved over the last 4 months...too many to count.

 

[thehornet]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

It all depends how he plays this year doesn't it? Rice is a good looking young prospect but a lot people seem to think that McGahee is just going to disappear into the sunset. He's only 27 years old and is very talented runner.

Mcgahee really isnt all that talented of a runner anymore. He's just not. I have watched him play a lot and it seems like he tries to find a hole and as soon as someone gets near him he turns his back to the line and backpeddles to get a yard, maybe. This is very depressing to watch as a fan and infuriating to witness as a Coach. McGahee hasnt been a talented runner since his rookie year in BUF. However, it's a double edged sword. Maybe the coaches want to give McGahee a lot of carries and showcase him for trade. If he looks good, then the chances of a team trading for him go up. Then again, if he looks good, why not keep him around to compliment the youg guy, Rice. It's a hairy situation.Both scenarios dont help with either players ADP.

 

[Ray_T]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

I am not a Portis fan. never have been and never will be.but this point you are making makes no sense at all.Almost every RB in the league has 5 or 6 different nagging injuries late in the season. some we hear about, others we dont. The only difference with Portis is that Washington did not hide these minor hurts. If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration. But Portis played all 16 games and got over 1700 total yards last year.this is a non issue for Portis. I'm still not picking him unless hes a serious bargain in my draft (mostly cuz I dont like him) but your arguement does not fly.

 

[Todem]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

It all depends how he plays this year doesn't it? Rice is a good looking young prospect but a lot people seem to think that McGahee is just going to disappear into the sunset. He's only 27 years old and is very talented runner.

Yep. I still beileve McGahee will be used often. Rice will start the season and be given the opportunity...but McGahee will earn back that job IMO for this season at some point. Rice is a hell of a talent but McGahee is also an asset.

 

[FF EGGHEAD]

"I'll touch on New England a little later on today."

I'm actually very interested in the NE RB's simply because I took Maroney in the next to last round of my 12 team PPR re-draft league.

We have a short bench so I'm wondering if I should hang on to Maroney or drop him for James Davis?

 

[loose circuits]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

where are you getting your information? It's not even close to accurateMcGahee is due to earn 3.6 Mil in 2010. Most of the money in his 7 year contract was upfront. If they would have released him this year, they would have had a huge cap hit. I don't think 1/7th reduction is going to make it a small cap hit. The more likely scenario is released before 2011 when he is due to make 6 mil.

 

[thehornet]

I'm actually very interested in the NE RB's simply because I took Maroney in the next to last round of my 12 team PPR re-draft league.

We have a short bench so I'm wondering if I should hang on to Maroney or drop him for James Davis?

I just did a little write-up on New England, but I'm not sure you are going to like it as a Maroney owner. Hopefully he is nothing more than a bench player for you right now. And you never know, stranger things have happened. Maybe Maroney remembers how he used to run at Minnesota Kidding of course. Seriously though, I dont see a a whole lot out of NE RB's this year aeven at each of their ADP's.

 

[thehornet]

Why is Willis gone? He is not in a contract year Le'ron is tho

Willis is owed like 6.5MM next year. Do you see the Ravens paying him that? I sure dont.

where are you getting your information? It's not even close to accurateMcGahee is due to earn 3.6 Mil in 2010. Most of the money in his 7 year contract was upfront. If they would have released him this year, they would have had a huge cap hit. I don't think 1/7th reduction is going to make it a small cap hit. The more likely scenario is released before 2011 when he is due to make 6 mil.

Dude relax, so I made a mistake on the numbers. My point is the same - the contract is smoke and mirrors. He makes the 6MM in 2011. Either way, the 3.6 next year is not justifiable if he stinks.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

 

[Wadsworth]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

The fall off the second is disturbing, but less when you consider the epic pace he was on in the first half. So a guy that was less than a year ago on pace to have around 1,900 rushing yards and 14 TDs, did not suffer a serious injury, and is now over the hill? I think you can definitely interpret these stats two ways.

 

[thehornet]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

The fall off the second is disturbing, but less when you consider the epic pace he was on in the first half. So a guy that was less than a year ago on pace to have around 1,900 rushing yards and 14 TDs, did not suffer a serious injury, and is now over the hill? I think you can definitely interpret these stats two ways.

whats more likely? 1900 yards rushing or a dropoff due to being worn down from overuse?

 

[thehornet]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

The fall off the second is disturbing, but less when you consider the epic pace he was on in the first half. So a guy that was less than a year ago on pace to have around 1,900 rushing yards and 14 TDs, did not suffer a serious injury, and is now over the hill? I think you can definitely interpret these stats two ways.

Regardless if the line sufferered injuries or not. This is a staggering difference that cannot just be brushed aside as easily as saying the line was banged up. Of course, some of it is to be expected to to get back to the mean.

 

[moderated]

2. New Orleans RB's situation. Mike Bell's emergence, PT's injury and Bush's seemingly healthy knee have all of a sudden made the backfield a minefield. PT should still be looking at 200 carries or so, but Mike Bell has proved to be more than adequate at different points of his career. He has slimmed down from the wieght he put on as a fullback for Shanny in Denver and looks sharp in preseason. Bush is going to get carries, maybe around 100. It doesnt seem like much, but it will split up the pie that much more.

i don't like to try to predict injuries so i feel projections should always be based on a per game basis.Per game I guarantee Bush will get more then 6 carries a game, which is what 100 carries on the year would be. How many games are you basing that 100 carry projection at?

Either way if Mike Bell is the goal-line back it pretty much squashes PT's value. Doesn't affect Bush much since he has never been a goal-line RB and gets his yards in many different ways.

 

[thehornet]

2. New Orleans RB's situation. Mike Bell's emergence, PT's injury and Bush's seemingly healthy knee have all of a sudden made the backfield a minefield. PT should still be looking at 200 carries or so, but Mike Bell has proved to be more than adequate at different points of his career. He has slimmed down from the wieght he put on as a fullback for Shanny in Denver and looks sharp in preseason. Bush is going to get carries, maybe around 100. It doesnt seem like much, but it will split up the pie that much more.

i don't like to try to predict injuries so i feel projections should always be based on a per game basis.Per game I guarantee Bush will get more then 6 carries a game, which is what 100 carries on the year would be. How many games are you basing that 100 carry projection at?

Either way if Mike Bell is the goal-line back it pretty much squashes PT's value. Doesn't affect Bush much since he has never been a goal-line RB and gets his yards in many different ways.

Not factoring in missed time for Bush would be like factoring in an injury for Peyton Manning. Both are certain to do what they normally do. So yes, of course Bush getting 100 carries has something to do with his history.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

2. New Orleans RB's situation. Mike Bell's emergence, PT's injury and Bush's seemingly healthy knee have all of a sudden made the backfield a minefield. PT should still be looking at 200 carries or so, but Mike Bell has proved to be more than adequate at different points of his career. He has slimmed down from the wieght he put on as a fullback for Shanny in Denver and looks sharp in preseason. Bush is going to get carries, maybe around 100. It doesnt seem like much, but it will split up the pie that much more.

i don't like to try to predict injuries so i feel projections should always be based on a per game basis.Per game I guarantee Bush will get more then 6 carries a game, which is what 100 carries on the year would be. How many games are you basing that 100 carry projection at?

Either way if Mike Bell is the goal-line back it pretty much squashes PT's value. Doesn't affect Bush much since he has never been a goal-line RB and gets his yards in many different ways.

Who said that Mike Bell is the goal line back?

 

[two_dollars]

2. New Orleans RB's situation. Mike Bell's emergence, PT's injury and Bush's seemingly healthy knee have all of a sudden made the backfield a minefield. PT should still be looking at 200 carries or so, but Mike Bell has proved to be more than adequate at different points of his career. He has slimmed down from the wieght he put on as a fullback for Shanny in Denver and looks sharp in preseason. Bush is going to get carries, maybe around 100. It doesnt seem like much, but it will split up the pie that much more.

i don't like to try to predict injuries so i feel projections should always be based on a per game basis.Per game I guarantee Bush will get more then 6 carries a game, which is what 100 carries on the year would be. How many games are you basing that 100 carry projection at?

Either way if Mike Bell is the goal-line back it pretty much squashes PT's value. Doesn't affect Bush much since he has never been a goal-line RB and gets his yards in many different ways.

Who said that Mike Bell is the goal line back?

Might have just been some coach speak, but it was in the PT spotlight thread I believe.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

4. James Davis, while a late roiund pick and probably nothing more than career backup, is turning heads with his quickness and sure-headedness. Jamal is an old dude and the slightest signs of a major dropoff will probably mean a swith from Jamal as the main guy to a 3 headed monster as well. Harrison is a superb change of pace back and Davis is eager. THis backfield never looked like a fantasy dream in the first place, but someone might emerge as the clear cut starter if Jamal falters. Im interested.....

Davis looked ok when watching him against the Lions in the week 2 preseason game, but his numbers were skewed a lot by his 81 yard TD against the Lions. The run was against the backups and a couple of players who may not even make the team missed tackles that a starter would make, and 2 other backups were badly out of position (terrible angles). His other 11 carries went for 35 yards and 9 of the 12 were 3 yards or less and 6 were 2 yards or less...and he played mostly against backups. He did flash some long speed on the long TD run, but if the starters were in, it would have been another 2 yard gain. Both his runs in the first preseason game were 3 yards or less. I think a lot of people are basing too much on his long TD run against 3rd stringers.I'm not saying he won't be a decent RB, but the preseason hype is a little overboard IMO.

 

[Balance]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

First half of the season included DET, STL, ARI, CLE, NO.Second half of the season was PIT, BAL, SF, SEA, ... CIN.

First half = 3 of the bottom 5 rush defenses. Second half = 1 rush defense in the bottom half, 3 of the top 4, 6 of the top 13 rush defenses.

Attributing this decline to injuries is perhaps oversimplifying and misleading IMO.

ETA - PHI, NYG were both top 10 defenses and he played each in both halves.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

First half of the season included DET, STL, ARI, CLE, NO.Second half of the season was PIT, BAL, SF, SEA, ... CIN.

First half = 3 of the bottom 5 rush defenses. Second half = 1 rush defense in the bottom half, 3 of the top 4, 6 of the top 13 rush defenses.

Attributing this decline to injuries is perhaps oversimplifying and misleading IMO.

ETA - PHI, NYG were both top 10 defenses and he played each in both halves.

While I think posts like this are great and insightful, I thought Portis (whether because of injuries or not) looked a lot slower and less explosive later in the year. Those defenses probably played a role, but he just didn't look right later in the year to me. I also think this is why people think he is showing signs of wear and tear already even though he isn't old for a RB.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

4. James Davis, while a late roiund pick and probably nothing more than career backup, is turning heads with his quickness and sure-headedness. Jamal is an old dude and the slightest signs of a major dropoff will probably mean a swith from Jamal as the main guy to a 3 headed monster as well. Harrison is a superb change of pace back and Davis is eager. THis backfield never looked like a fantasy dream in the first place, but someone might emerge as the clear cut starter if Jamal falters. Im interested.....

Davis looked ok when watching him against the Lions in the week 2 preseason game, but his numbers were skewed a lot by his 81 yard TD against the Lions. The run was against the backups and a couple of players who may not even make the team missed tackles that a starter would make, and 2 other backups were badly out of position (terrible angles). His other 11 carries went for 35 yards and 9 of the 12 were 3 yards or less and 6 were 2 yards or less...and he played mostly against backups. He did flash some long speed on the long TD run, but if the starters were in, it would have been another 2 yard gain. Both his runs in the first preseason game were 3 yards or less. I think a lot of people are basing too much on his long TD run against 3rd stringers.I'm not saying he won't be a decent RB, but the preseason hype is a little overboard IMO.

This is great information, thank you. I did not see the game and only looked at the stat line and thought it was impressive. Getting a take on it from someone who watched the game helped me put it back into perspective, thanks!

 

[Balance]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

First half of the season included DET, STL, ARI, CLE, NO.Second half of the season was PIT, BAL, SF, SEA, ... CIN.

First half = 3 of the bottom 5 rush defenses. Second half = 1 rush defense in the bottom half, 3 of the top 4, 6 of the top 13 rush defenses.

Attributing this decline to injuries is perhaps oversimplifying and misleading IMO.

ETA - PHI, NYG were both top 10 defenses and he played each in both halves.

While I think posts like this are great and insightful, I thought Portis (whether because of injuries or not) looked a lot slower and less explosive later in the year. Those defenses probably played a role, but he just didn't look right later in the year to me. I also think this is why people think he is showing signs of wear and tear already even though he isn't old for a RB.

I'm not saying he didn't wear down, I'm just saying there are likely more factors in play than just a claim he is injury prone.

 

[Utter Chaos]

I think another team worthy of discussing is Tampa. I caught a little bit of their game last night and the announcers were hyping up Cadillac Williams. Is there a chance he'll get the bulk of the carries and Derrick Ward will assume the same role he had in New York last year? And where does Ernest Graham fit in all of this?

edit: Never mind. Just noticed a seperate thread on this. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=483995

 

[Tanner9919]

5. Washington. Portis is getting up there and by no means do I think this is a committee. However, the coaches have openly stated that Betts wil lget in on 3rd downs and that is enough to make me weary about Portis as a high 2nd round option. I noted in another thread that Portis is getting up to a scary amount of career carries. Almost 2100, putting him in line with Shaun Alexander and nearing Edge, LT and others. Betts has proven that he can be very goods in limited action. Just noting....

As of today, Portis is 27 (will turn 28 next week). It's not like he's 120 in dog years. He's still far from hitting any notable perceived age milestones. He's not even halfway to the number of carries Emmitt Smith had.I'll believe Betts will see a more significant role when I see it. Not counting 2006 when Portis got hurt, Betts has averaged 6 carries a game with Portis on the team.

Emmit Smith is a freak. It's very likely that no one will ever approach 4400 rushing carries ever again.

Regardless, Portis will still only be 28 when the season starts. I've never seen a statistical analysis that proved # of carries is a clear indicator a RB's production will decline. Age? Yes. # of carries? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not convinced.

I agree with you guys to an extent, but this is the first year that I have really ever gave it a little more thought. AT SOME POINT, we need to stop saying that Portis is steady, portis is the safe pick, portis is as safe as it comes - because at some point players hit a danger zone. I like to use carries a gauge instead of age. Portis started as a full time NFL running back at a much younger age than most. Go look at when LJ started a full time gig for comparison sake. Portis being 28 is menaingless to me. He has one of the highelst workloads of all active starting running backs. Over 2000 carries is a good point to start thinking, "when's the drop off going to start?"

I don't know if it's a good starting point or not, what I do know is that Portis' 'drop-off' season isn't likely to come in 2009...especially not with games against Denver, N.O., St Louis , Detroit, Bucs, Chiefs, Eagles ( sans JJ as a DC), Falcons, Raiders..and he tears up the NFC East every year...so you've picked a bad time to think Portis will begin to slow down or that he'll begin to see his stats dropping off..you bring up a good point, but you're probably 1 year early..

 

[thehornet]

^^^^

I dont think I specifically said that this IS the year, but I firmly believe that it is this one or the next. Just on opportunity alone, Portis will produce stats. He is still the lead back with goal line duties. My main reason for being a little hesitant on Portis is his current ADP. I just think it hsould be more in the range of where Westbrook is going, early 3rd round. I think they could easily outperform a 3rd round pick and that is where the value lies. If he is drafted in the 2nd, then I believe you are likely to get what you drafted with a higher risk factored in.

 

[David Yudkin]

^^^^I dont think I specifically said that this IS the year, but I firmly believe that it is this one or the next. Just on opportunity alone, Portis will produce stats. He is still the lead back with goal line duties. My main reason for being a little hesitant on Portis is his current ADP. I just think it hsould be more in the range of where Westbrook is going, early 3rd round. I think they could easily outperform a 3rd round pick and that is where the value lies. If he is drafted in the 2nd, then I believe you are likely to get what you drafted with a higher risk factored in.

In 0 PPR leagues, Westbrook has an ADP of 17 overall (RB 11) and Portis 19 (RB 13).

 

[thehornet]

^^^^I dont think I specifically said that this IS the year, but I firmly believe that it is this one or the next. Just on opportunity alone, Portis will produce stats. He is still the lead back with goal line duties. My main reason for being a little hesitant on Portis is his current ADP. I just think it hsould be more in the range of where Westbrook is going, early 3rd round. I think they could easily outperform a 3rd round pick and that is where the value lies. If he is drafted in the 2nd, then I believe you are likely to get what you drafted with a higher risk factored in.

In 0 PPR leagues, Westbrook has an ADP of 17 overall (RB 11) and Portis 19 (RB 13).

All of my drafts are telling a completely different story.

 

[David Yudkin]

^^^^I dont think I specifically said that this IS the year, but I firmly believe that it is this one or the next. Just on opportunity alone, Portis will produce stats. He is still the lead back with goal line duties. My main reason for being a little hesitant on Portis is his current ADP. I just think it hsould be more in the range of where Westbrook is going, early 3rd round. I think they could easily outperform a 3rd round pick and that is where the value lies. If he is drafted in the 2nd, then I believe you are likely to get what you drafted with a higher risk factored in.

In 0 PPR leagues, Westbrook has an ADP of 17 overall (RB 11) and Portis 19 (RB 13).

All of my drafts are telling a completely different story.

My two drafts from this week . . .Portis 12, Westbrook 20Westbrook 17, Portis 18I haven't seen either of these guys falling lately.

 

[T Bell]

Portis started like a blaze of fire last year...then the lack of him being able to recover quickly from the grind of being a workhorse took it's toll on his production. He did not look himself towards the end of last season.I am a huge Portis fan. But I think we will see one more season of top 10-15 production this season....and that is it. He looks like to me a guy who is finally hitting the wall. I don't look at age or carries...I just watch how they play. Portis plays the game fast and hard. That became less apparent last season as it wore on. He just flat out slowed down at some point last season. In a redraft he presents some good value if he falls to the late second round (which would be hard to believe). Dynasty wise I can't tell you how many Portis offers I have recieved over the last 4 months...too many to count.

The decline of the O-line, the negative effect on both Portis and the passing game (which also affected Portis) had a huge effect upon how he looked. I agree that he'll hit the proverbial wall here at some point, but you guys need to recognize just how bad it got with the o-line the second half of last year.

 

[by_tor]

Portis had five different injuries in the second half of the season. That sounds like the very definition of "wearing down" to me. Just because most backs drop off at 30 or later doesnt mean some don't drop off before 30.

If he misses games or his production is seriously hindered by these little injuries, then I'd give it consideration.

944 rushing yards in the 1st half of the season

543 rushing yards in the 2nd half of the season

5.0 ypc 1st half

3.5 ypc 2nd half

7 TDs 1st half

2 TDs 2nd half

The fall off the second is disturbing, but less when you consider the epic pace he was on in the first half. So a guy that was less than a year ago on pace to have around 1,900 rushing yards and 14 TDs, did not suffer a serious injury, and is now over the hill? I think you can definitely interpret these stats two ways.

Regardless if the line sufferered injuries or not. This is a staggering difference that cannot just be brushed aside as easily as saying the line was banged up. Of course, some of it is to be expected to to get back to the mean.

why can't this difference be explained by the decimated line? or the 2nd half schedule? or the more conservative play calling combined with the league using 1st half film to 'figure out' the rookie head coach?-they lost 3 starters on the o-line and have NO depth; i'd be more worried about the fact that they refuse to address THAT issue than Portis... he goes as the line goes.