Reggie Williams (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

until just looking it up, i forgot he had DD TDs last season...

2007 was an up 'n down year (or down 'n up?)...

he began in the dog house, with rumors that he & matt jones might not even make the final roster before the season started... & clearly they were both impacted in their use...

looking at williams stats, he scored a TD in four straight games to end the season, six of his last seven, & was actually consistent throughout the season as he also scored in three of his first four games... impressively, he got 10 TDs despite missing two games...

in PPR leagues he didn't help as much last year, as he had only 38 receptions all season... he was efficient with them, gaining 629 yards, for a healthy 16.6 YPR average... he had more than 2 receptions only once in his first five games, and more than 3 receptions just three times in last 10 weeks... he only topped more than 20 yards three times all season...

it is interesting to speculate what he could have done if targeted more... doubling receptions to 76 with same YPR average would yield 1,200+ yards? 20 TDs obviously not highly likely, as he was already used as red zone target a lot with a big body, & unless the jags were in red zone twice as often, more receptions in middle of the field wouldn't necessarily translate to doubling of TDs on a one-to-one correspondence with doubling of receptions...

did williams have a breakthrough last season? has he earned the trust & confidence of the coaching staff & front office after reportedly being close to being cut? is he now back in their good graces where he may have earned more playing time in '08 based on his strong production in limited action last season? will he figure more prominently in their future plans? can i phrase any more sentences as questions???

2008 could be a big year for williams, in terms of his future with the organization...

in dynasty leagues, it is important to remember that he is just 24 still, & could have some upside as he matures...

* without looking at details of his contract, i'm guessing any potential boosters or accelerators in his contract that were incentive-based probably haven't been met, due to his lack of production/opportunity in his first seasons in the league, so he still may be pretty cheap for a little while longer, if he can yield the kind of bang for the buck he did last season?

** another impressive aspect of his production is that it isn't like he was playing across from randy moss... some others factors that might lead to optimism... the jags have a devastating rushing attack (a double edged sword here, as the jags are a running team primarily & that could always impact williams production as long as the scheme remains so run-heavy), & if williams somehow did ascend to become one of garrard's favorite targets, garrard looks like one of the top up 'n coming QBs in the league.

*** in fantasy leagues its not like you'll have to draft him as WR3... he might even be available as WR5 or WR6, at a point where his upside might offer more compelling value than other options there... if so, potentially a sleeper pick next season...

**** with leftwich increasingly looking like a bust (guilty until proven innocent at this point), maybe some of the blame for the general ineptitude of the passing attack prior to '07 was unfairly laid on williams, & having a chance to show what he could do with garrard at the helm has raised his estimation in the eyes of the organization?

 

[Jason Wood]

Bob...while it's an unusual achievement, I wouldn't say it's even in the running for the quietest 10 TD-catch season in history.

*** In 1964 Bucky Pope caught 10 TDs on just 25 receptions (40% conversion rate)

*** In 1985 Daryl Turner caught 13 TDs in 34 catches (38.2%)

*** In 1973 Paul Warfield only caught 29 passes for 514 yards, but 11 of them were TDs! (37.9%)

*** Isaac Curtis and Ron Shanklin had 10 TD, 30 catch seasons in 1974 and 1973, respectively (33.3%)

*** Steve Largent had 10 TD in 1977 on only 33 catches for 643 yards

*** Gary Collins caught 13 TDs in 43 catches for 674 yards in 1963

*** In 1984 Daryl Turner caught 10 TDs on only 345 catches [back to back years like that]

 

[Bob Magaw]

thanx, jason...

nice stats on the fly...

BTW, i wasn't so much referring to his TD production efficiency given his low reception total necessarily compared to other WRs, this season or historically, but was just passing along the fact that i just realized he had 10 TDs & i suspect many others may not have realized that as well...

also that he may be a player of interest when fantasy drafts get to the point where you are thinking about a RB5/RB6, or WR5/WR6...

i'm also genuinely interested in how others view last seasn & project him in the future... a fluke, or an example of a legit turning point in career?

also whether he did enough to force himself back into the picture for the jags long term plans, or not?

 

[az_prof]

thanx, jason...nice stats on the fly...BTW, i wasn't so much referring to his TD production efficiency given his low reception total necessarily compared to other WRs, this season or historically, but was just passing along the fact that i just realized he had 10 TDs & i suspect many others may not have realized that as well...also that he may be a player of interest when fantasy drafts get to the point where you are thinking about a RB5/RB6, or WR5/WR6...i'm also genuinely interested in how others view last seasn & project him in the future... a fluke, or an example of a legit turning point in career?also whether he did enough to force himself back into the picture for the jags long term plans, or not?

Most people just remember his past failure to produce and as a result he will be available late and cheap; but, I consider him a leading sleeper this coming year. With Wilford leaving I see Reggie stepping into the featured WR role next year. Garrard is improving. Reggie clearly made a progression last year and didn't drop as many. I think 10 plus TDs and over a 1000 yards next year is very possible.

 

[acapella]

I think it highy unlikely that Reggie Williams will be a WR5 or WR6 on many teams next season. Those 10 TDs will not be so quiet when people start looking at mock FF drafts this summer.

 

[Clifton]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say things got pretty loud near the end of the season when he was wrapping up his 7 out of 9 game TD streak.

 

[Two Deep]

I was under the impression he has some kind of clause in his contract that could allow him to become an unrestricted free agent this year? Can somebody in the know confirm this?

 

[Beaumont]

I have no idea what is going on with the Jag's WR corp.

Reggie Williams

Mike Walker

Dennis Northcutt

Troy Williamson

Matt Jones

John Broussard

They could still add a rookie to the mix.

I would guess that Williams is a starter. Northcutt in the slot. Walker (if healthy) and Williamson fight it out for outside no. 2. Broussard is a deep threat for the most part. Jones is cut or traded in favor of a rookie pick.

Lots of mediocrity here IMHO.

I see no reason for Williams not to have continuing improvement.

 

[Fallerjw]

Bob...while it's an unusual achievement, I wouldn't say it's even in the running for the quietest 10 TD-catch season in history.

*** In 1964 Bucky Pope caught 10 TDs on just 25 receptions (40% conversion rate)

*** In 1985 Daryl Turner caught 13 TDs in 34 catches (38.2%)

*** In 1973 Paul Warfield only caught 29 passes for 514 yards, but 11 of them were TDs! (37.9%)

*** Isaac Curtis and Ron Shanklin had 10 TD, 30 catch seasons in 1974 and 1973, respectively (33.3%)

*** Steve Largent had 10 TD in 1977 on only 33 catches for 643 yards

*** Gary Collins caught 13 TDs in 43 catches for 674 yards in 1963

*** In 1984 Daryl Turner caught 10 TDs on only 345 catches [back to back years like that]

 

[Chunky Soup]

The stats tell a good story but I remember seeing most of these on nfl.com or ESPN and he still looked pretty sloppy and slow. I think this will be very hard to repeat.

 

[Englishteacher]

In recent memory, I think of Marc Boerigter and Brnadon Stokely as lesser talented guys who had big TD seasons. I see where you are going though, trying to project this into the future. How many catches did he have over that TD spree? He's still relatively young so you could look at it from a 3rd year WR breakout perspective. Also, I think real football sense comes into play here. Places like Pro Football Weekly, just an example, that have scouting takes are good to reference in getting the real skivvy. We, as fantasy football geeks, look at things from a much different perspective. I think the areas the answer will fall in are:

1. he's developed a niche as a red zone receiver, learning to utilize his big body, but may not develop into an all around WR who's that good

2. he's starting to emerge as a real playmaker, a good WR. His end of year production is illustrative of the light going on.

3. it was a fluke.

Can't say I saw a lot of Jag's football but prior to this year he was considered to be a bust. But, you do need to allow time for rookie WR's to develop. Hence the 3rd year breakout theory.

The other examples...

Boerigter... never again made big noise as a WR

Stokeley... was at one time a decent slot WR but has never been anything special and happened to play on the Colts the year manning threw for a then record number of TD passes in a season. Injuries have derailed Stokeley's career but he's never resembled a true #1 WR or for that matter a #2. In fact, his best year came as a 3rd WR and he was in the best situation he could have ever been in.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I was under the impression he has some kind of clause in his contract that could allow him to become an unrestricted free agent this year? Can somebody in the know confirm this?

I posted in another thread a couple days ago that Williams can void the final year (2009) of his contract.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I have no idea what is going on with the Jag's WR corp.Reggie WilliamsMike WalkerDennis NorthcuttTroy WilliamsonMatt JonesJohn BroussardThey could still add a rookie to the mix.I would guess that Williams is a starter. Northcutt in the slot. Walker (if healthy) and Williamson fight it out for outside no. 2. Broussard is a deep threat for the most part. Jones is cut or traded in favor of a rookie pick.Lots of mediocrity here IMHO.I see no reason for Williams not to have continuing improvement.

sorting out the jag motley WR crew is a challenging exercise... they have three first rounders in williams, matt jones & now troy williamson... i had some ideas about how i see things shaking out, but wanted to open up the question first, so thanx for expanding the context & perspective as to the question of whether he starts & where he is situated in the team's plans next season & beyond...i agree northcutt makes a good slot... if it isn't too controversial to suggest garrard could be a better QB that tarvaris jackson (who i actually like for his upside, but he is still raw & garrard had a breakthrough year), maybe williamson could have some upside as well if he can get in more of a groove & rhythm through being targeted more... walker is the wildcard as he looked promising in camp & pre-season but is still very unproven, and he returns from a knee injury...williamson would make a good complement to williams with his blistering speed... jones is fast as well, but he reportedly has more build up speed as he moves through the route stem (surprising as he ran a sub-4.4 in his Combine, i think)... williamson seems to be best fit as outside deep WR... williams maybe not so much in slot at first glance as he may not seem like a quick twitch athlete, yet he could out-muscle smaller DBs in slot... don't recall jones getting a lot of chances in the slot (he is another big question mark who based on his highlights in college i thought could be a special talent if he had the athleticism to make the transition to WR in the NFL, but seems to have regressed during his time in the league), but that could be an interesting spot for him, if he could just find soft spots in zone coverage, catch short passes & do damage with RAC skills in open field like he did during incendiary colege career... also, with jones & williams, as well as hulking TE marcedes lewis (who could also be primed to take it to the next level in '08), that would be a monstrous WR lineup height-wise, and could be extremely dangerous in the red zone, coupled with their running prowess & garrard's ability to break down defenses by extending play with his legs & taking off with the ball himself when needed. chances are williamson continues to be plagued by drops & as a result continued lack of use, but IF he somehow manages to turn his career around and leverage his best assetts (speed & explosiveness), the jags WR corp could go from mediocre to decent in a hurry... with the running attack in JAX, williamson won't be double covered & could be running crazy open a lot (that was probably the case in MIN, too, with AD, but the vikings didn't target him very often & so he didn't have a lot of opportunities to take advantage of what was presumably single coverage much of the year?)... to answer my own question, i do think there is cause for optimism with reggie... especially if garrard plays like he did in '07, williams could have a chance to shine & fulfill promise of his high first round pedigree & distinguished college career... as to if he is in JAX after this season, not as sure, & a lot could depend on his ability to sustain his production & momentum from last season... * sounds like there is a diversity of opinions above on whether reggie will still be overlooked due being in such recent proximity to the dreaded "bust" label & therefor representing good value in drafts, or his red hot finish (at least in the TD column) means the cat is out of the bag... maybe polarizing type players such as this can lead to different results... far from a sure thing, he could drop drastically in some drafts, where he may well go higher in many others where his potential upside is recognized... agreed that in shark drafts not too likely you get him as a WR6, & it will be fun to see where his ADP ends up as the draft season progresses... i could easily see it rising...

 

[Jason Wood]

Bob...while it's an unusual achievement, I wouldn't say it's even in the running for the quietest 10 TD-catch season in history.

*** In 1964 Bucky Pope caught 10 TDs on just 25 receptions (40% conversion rate)

*** In 1985 Daryl Turner caught 13 TDs in 34 catches (38.2%)

*** In 1973 Paul Warfield only caught 29 passes for 514 yards, but 11 of them were TDs! (37.9%)

*** Isaac Curtis and Ron Shanklin had 10 TD, 30 catch seasons in 1974 and 1973, respectively (33.3%)

*** Steve Largent had 10 TD in 1977 on only 33 catches for 643 yards

*** Gary Collins caught 13 TDs in 43 catches for 674 yards in 1963

*** In 1984 Daryl Turner caught 10 TDs on only 345 catches [back to back years like that]

Typo (35 catches obviously!)Also, re: Reggie Williams as a WR5/WR6. He was my WR3 in the Footballguys staff league (and I'm the champ ).

 

[travdogg]

Joe Jurevicius caught 10 TD's in 05'.

I wouldn't want Williams as anything more than a WR4 at best.

He might not even be a starter in Jacksonville(he wasn't this year)

 

[Bob Magaw]

Bob...while it's an unusual achievement, I wouldn't say it's even in the running for the quietest 10 TD-catch season in history.

*** In 1964 Bucky Pope caught 10 TDs on just 25 receptions (40% conversion rate)

*** In 1985 Daryl Turner caught 13 TDs in 34 catches (38.2%)

*** In 1973 Paul Warfield only caught 29 passes for 514 yards, but 11 of them were TDs! (37.9%)

*** Isaac Curtis and Ron Shanklin had 10 TD, 30 catch seasons in 1974 and 1973, respectively (33.3%)

*** Steve Largent had 10 TD in 1977 on only 33 catches for 643 yards

*** Gary Collins caught 13 TDs in 43 catches for 674 yards in 1963

*** In 1984 Daryl Turner caught 10 TDs on only 345 catches [back to back years like that]

Typo (35 catches obviously!)Also, re: Reggie Williams as a WR5/WR6. He was my WR3 in the Footballguys staff league (and I'm the champ ).

interesting about getting him at WR3... i don't recall the timing of the staff draft relative to rumblings that JAX had potentially soured on him to the point of possibly cutting him (perhaps before?)... would you have still taken him there if draft had been held day before season started?on the other hand, you could make a case that williams did enough in '07 to put him at a higher standing in the fantasy community NOW than at any point last off-season...

i definitely agree that in a draft with sharks he is more likely to go early...

maybe WITHIN jags organization the perspective of off-season will lead to them reevaluating him... though his regular season production didn't seem to noticeably impact on his increased use in post-season, & maybe not huge cause for optimism on projecting '08 BASED ON THAT...

in the two playoff games, he had but 3 receptions & 0 TDs combined...

* i had a typo, too... the tracking of receiving yards was way off, i was mistakenly looking at long play column, not receiving yards... i remember thinking the yards weren't adding up to such a healthy total & YPR average... now i know why...

 

[Two Deep]

Joe Jurevicius caught 10 TD's in 05'.

I wouldn't want Williams as anything more than a WR4 at best.

He might not even be a starter in Jacksonville(he wasn't this year)

Not a bad comparison, Jurevicius is a guy that I thought could really excel if given the chance. It seems he was one of those guys that got pigeon holed into nothing more than a number two guy.

 

[EBF]

interesting about getting him at WR3... i don't recall the timing of the staff draft relative to rumblings that JAX had potentially soured on him to the point of possibly cutting him (perhaps before?)... would you have still taken him there if draft had been held day before season started?

From what I understand there was never really any substance to those rumors.

 

[cstu]

I have no idea what is going on with the Jag's WR corp.Reggie WilliamsMike WalkerDennis NorthcuttTroy WilliamsonMatt JonesJohn BroussardThey could still add a rookie to the mix.I would guess that Williams is a starter. Northcutt in the slot. Walker (if healthy) and Williamson fight it out for outside no. 2. Broussard is a deep threat for the most part. Jones is cut or traded in favor of a rookie pick.Lots of mediocrity here IMHO.I see no reason for Williams not to have continuing improvement.

sorting out the jag motley WR crew is a challenging exercise... they have three first rounders in williams, matt jones & now troy williamson... i had some ideas about how i see things shaking out, but wanted to open up the question first, so thanx for expanding the context & perspective as to the question of whether he starts & where he is situated in the team's plans next season & beyond...i agree northcutt makes a good slot... if it isn't too controversial to suggest garrard could be a better QB that tarvaris jackson (who i actually like for his upside, but he is still raw & garrard had a breakthrough year), maybe williamson could have some upside as well if he can get in more of a groove & rhythm through being targeted more... walker is the wildcard as he looked promising in camp & pre-season but is still very unproven, and he returns from a knee injury...williamson would make a good complement to williams with his blistering speed... jones is fast as well, but he reportedly has more build up speed as he moves through the route stem (surprising as he ran a sub-4.4 in his Combine, i think)... williamson seems to be best fit as outside deep WR... williams maybe not so much in slot at first glance as he may not seem like a quick twitch athlete, yet he could out-muscle smaller DBs in slot... don't recall jones getting a lot of chances in the slot (he is another big question mark who based on his highlights in college i thought could be a special talent if he had the athleticism to make the transition to WR in the NFL, but seems to have regressed during his time in the league), but that could be an interesting spot for him, if he could just find soft spots in zone coverage, catch short passes & do damage with RAC skills in open field like he did during incendiary colege career... also, with jones & williams, as well as hulking TE marcedes lewis (who could also be primed to take it to the next level in '08), that would be a monstrous WR lineup height-wise, and could be extremely dangerous in the red zone, coupled with their running prowess & garrard's ability to break down defenses by extending play with his legs & taking off with the ball himself when needed. chances are williamson continues to be plagued by drops & as a result continued lack of use, but IF he somehow manages to turn his career around and leverage his best assetts (speed & explosiveness), the jags WR corp could go from mediocre to decent in a hurry... with the running attack in JAX, williamson won't be double covered & could be running crazy open a lot (that was probably the case in MIN, too, with AD, but the vikings didn't target him very often & so he didn't have a lot of opportunities to take advantage of what was presumably single coverage much of the year?)... to answer my own question, i do think there is cause for optimism with reggie... especially if garrard plays like he did in '07, williams could have a chance to shine & fulfill promise of his high first round pedigree & distinguished college career... as to if he is in JAX after this season, not as sure, & a lot could depend on his ability to sustain his production & momentum from last season... * sounds like there is a diversity of opinions above on whether reggie will still be overlooked due being in such recent proximity to the dreaded "bust" label & therefor representing good value in drafts, or his red hot finish (at least in the TD column) means the cat is out of the bag... maybe polarizing type players such as this can lead to different results... far from a sure thing, he could drop drastically in some drafts, where he may well go higher in many others where his potential upside is recognized... agreed that in shark drafts not too likely you get him as a WR6, & it will be fun to see where his ADP ends up as the draft season progresses... i could easily see it rising...

I think Reggie can be a decent receiver but I don't see him being too valuable in PPR. He's a great red zone target and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 8-10 TD's next year. He's certainly a better WR than Matt Jones, who I don't think will be in the league much longer. Because he was drafted so young, Reggie will also only be 25 this season (same as Williamson) and he's got some room to develop. I agree that the Jags will likely start Reggie and Williamson with Northcutt in the slot. If Williamson doesn't figure out how to catch the ball then it will be Mike Walker as the #2.The main issue with the Jags is that they are a running team and it will limit the targets for the WR's.