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Ren's old crypto thread || we know how to buy this stuff now (1 Viewer)

Rhythmdoctor said:
I’m as bullish as anyone on BTC but I think we top out around 13.5k if not sooner, then consolidate for a month or so before aiming for 20k. That 13.5k level is the .618 fib retracement from the 3100 low.  The market won’t literally go straight up to 20k. That said, 10.5k may never be seen again. Probably best to get in now and expect a pullback rather than hope for a pullback and miss out. 
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It appears that we did bounce off that .618 fib price of 13.5k.  Now the question is how low do we go before continuing on?  I just looked at the last btc bull market where we also topped at the .618 (from the bear market low in January, 2015) before moving up again and the correction was ~40%.  If the same correction occurs this time, we can expect BTC to drop to around 8,700 ish before continuing this bull move.  I am not a financial advisor or professional trader.  

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
It appears that we did bounce off that .618 fib price of 13.5k.  Now the question is how low do we go before continuing on?  I just looked at the last btc bull market where we also topped at the .618 (from the bear market low in January, 2015) before moving up again and the correction was ~40%.  If the same correction occurs this time, we can expect BTC to drop to around 8,700 ish before continuing this bull move.  I am not a financial advisor or professional trader.  
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I thought this thing was going right to the moon in a short period of time? What happened? 

 
Capella said:
I thought this thing was going right to the moon in a short period of time? What happened? 
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I never made that claim.  Read the post I quoted from myself from 6/25:

I’m as bullish as anyone on BTC but I think we top out around 13.5k if not sooner, then consolidate for a month or so before aiming for 20k. That 13.5k level is the .618 fib retracement from the 3100 low.  The market won’t literally go straight up to 20k. That said, 10.5k may never be seen again. Probably best to get in now and expect a pullback rather than hope for a pullback and miss out. 
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Capella said:
10.5k might be seen today :shrug:  
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It might.  I guess I don't understand your point.  Seems like you're trying to call me out?  I'm just participating in the discussion and don't have a crystal ball. I'm just trying to offer what I'm seeing in the charts but nothing is certain.  My general 'prediction' is that BTC began a new bull market this spring and will eventually climb to $100k ish during this current bull run.  How/when/why it gets to $100k is up for debate and we'll find out soon enough.  That said, it's a fun exercise trying to interpret the chart patterns to figure out the dips and price points along the way but there are no guarantees and I'm not advising anyone on anything.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
It might.  I guess I don't understand your point.  Seems like you're trying to call me out?  I'm just participating in the discussion and don't have a crystal ball. I'm just trying to offer what I'm seeing in the charts but nothing is certain.  My general 'prediction' is that BTC began a new bull market this spring and will eventually climb to $100k ish during this current bull run.  How/when/why it gets to $100k is up for debate and we'll find out soon enough.  That said, it's a fun exercise trying to interpret the chart patterns to figure out the dips and price points along the way but there are no guarantees and I'm not advising anyone on anything.
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Not calling you out in particular at all. Everybody was just very bullish on this the past few days and then it dropped 18% rapidly. Kind of just highlights how ridiculous it is to try and prognosticate any of this. 

 
never going to time this market perfectly. That said, looking for a pullback as an entry point is a sound strategy. FOMOing during times when it is going up 10% a day is not.

 
just learned that one of my co-workers went all in on LINK last year at $0.10.   

Over $2 now.  they are getting some good press and great partnerships.

 
Capella said:
Nah. I’m just annoyed I talked myself into this ratchet bull#### again 
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If you do not believe in the future of it, don't invest.   I believe in it and a one day drop of 20 percent did not phase me.   It was probably healthy after the huge run up.  

 
Capella said:
Nah. I’m just annoyed I talked myself into this ratchet bull#### again 
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You are the kiss of death. I’ll still go back to my old thoughts which are that if it’s an investment then I don’t see how it works. I’d back the software and exchanges (like Visa). People saw Facebook as a great thing for Bitcoin. I just see Facebook trying to get into the PayPal/Visa payment/transaction fee game. I don’t see how if Facebook is successful that it’s good for Bitcoin.

The $1m per Bitcoin was talked about before. The wild swings up and down haven’t stopped. People point to the $20k before at the last halving. Well, that’s nice but it also went back down to under $4k after the halving, right?

No one uses it as “money” and all the $1m per Bitcoin is based on an assumption that it will basically replace the dollar. Why can’t the Government/big banks/Facebook just use blockchain to do dollar settlements giving you the same anonymity that paying in cash does with all the benefits of blockchain. Facebook is pegging theirs to the dollar.

I don’t know if I am right but the people banking on $20k or $1m are basing it off a system that can easily be gamed by folks with a lot of Bitcoin especially since I believe the volumes are way down from the last big run up. The still point to Overstock.

 
jon_mx said:
If you do not believe in the future of it, don't invest.   I believe in it and a one day drop of 20 percent did not phase me.   It was probably healthy after the huge run up.  
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Honestly it’s just funny money. Wanted to see if I could catch a wave. Not a big deal. 

 
stbugs said:
You are the kiss of death. I’ll still go back to my old thoughts which are that if it’s an investment then I don’t see how it works. I’d back the software and exchanges (like Visa). People saw Facebook as a great thing for Bitcoin. I just see Facebook trying to get into the PayPal/Visa payment/transaction fee game. I don’t see how if Facebook is successful that it’s good for Bitcoin.

The $1m per Bitcoin was talked about before. The wild swings up and down haven’t stopped. People point to the $20k before at the last halving. Well, that’s nice but it also went back down to under $4k after the halving, right?

No one uses it as “money” and all the $1m per Bitcoin is based on an assumption that it will basically replace the dollar. Why can’t the Government/big banks/Facebook just use blockchain to do dollar settlements giving you the same anonymity that paying in cash does with all the benefits of blockchain. Facebook is pegging theirs to the dollar.

I don’t know if I am right but the people banking on $20k or $1m are basing it off a system that can easily be gamed by folks with a lot of Bitcoin especially since I believe the volumes are way down from the last big run up. The still point to Overstock.
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The valuations aren’t based on the notion that BTC will replace the dollar. Rather, they are based on the notion that BTC is superior to the dollar (and gold) and has value. That value is based on a number of things Including its scarcity (value is always derived by what people are willing to pay for it). 

I’m not very good a math but...

7,500,000,000 people in the world. 

Lets say just 1 percent adopt bitcoin as a store of value for a variety of reasons, including the fact that it stores value better than their native currency or the global reserve currency because it cannot be depreciated on a whim (to fund a war, bailout a bank, absolve student loan debt, etc.), its censorship resistant, etc. That’s 75,000,000 people on the demand side.

Right now, there are only 18,000,000 BTC available for purchase. Of course, you can buy extremely fractionalized shares of BTC (aka a “Satoshi”)

Now imagine that 25% of that supply has been hoarded by a relative small group of people, leaving about 13,500,000 left for the demand side -  the mere 1% of people (75,000,000) in the world who think its valuable.

Now imagine the price goes up when demand exceeds supply.

I’m not an economist but....

 
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So I have a friend who got me some ripple and some other crap (Bat I think?) in his wallet - now that I have my fancy Coinbase account can he transfer those to me there? 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
The valuations aren’t based on the notion that BTC will replace the dollar. Rather, they are based on the notion that BTC is superior to the dollar (and gold) and has value. That value is based on a number of things Including its scarcity (value is always derived by what people are willing to pay for it). 

I’m not very good a math but...

7,500,000,000 people in the world. 

Lets say just 1 percent adopt bitcoin as a store of value for a variety of reasons, including the fact that it stores value better than their native currency or the global reserve currency because it cannot be depreciated on a whim (to find a war, bailout a bank, absolve student loan debt, etc.), its censorship resistant, etc. That’s 75,000,000 people on the demand side.

Right now, there are only 18,000,000 BTC available for purchase. Of course, you can buy extremely fractionalized shares of BTC (aka a “Satoshi”)

Now imagine that 25% of that supply has been hoarded by a relative small group of people, leaving about 13,500,000 left for the demand side -  the mere 1% of people (75,000,000) in the world who think its valuable.

Now imagine the price goes up when demand exceeds supply.

I’m not an economist but...
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If Facebook can creat their own coin, then why is there any scarcity at all? There are bunches of alt coins and there’s no stopping anyone else from creating something new and better. I’ve been a live for a few years and I’ve seen lots of technology trends and companies. It wasn’t the first search engine or even the tenth that was the most successful, it was Google many years after. The most successful online retailer and cloud company was an online bookstore. Apple is worth the most of any company and it wasn’t that long ago that Microsoft and Intel had it buried. Suffice it to say that I believe in the software and tech itself, but I’m not a real big believer in something that is barely used in a practical sense and honestly doesn’t have a large barrier to the entry of competing products.

Maybe I am wrong but every time I see people mention Overstock as one is the big pros, I laugh a little. They are worth 1/3000th of Amazon and their Q1 revenue declined 17% from last year. If Bitcoin was so widely used how can the biggest Bitcoin retailer be going backwards? I could see Facebook’s coin gain way more traction and be used far more in a very short time.

 
stbugs said:
If Facebook can creat their own coin, then why is there any scarcity at all? There are bunches of alt coins and there’s no stopping anyone else from creating something new and better. I’ve been a live for a few years and I’ve seen lots of technology trends and companies. It wasn’t the first search engine or even the tenth that was the most successful, it was Google many years after. The most successful online retailer and cloud company was an online bookstore. Apple is worth the most of any company and it wasn’t that long ago that Microsoft and Intel had it buried. Suffice it to say that I believe in the software and tech itself, but I’m not a real big believer in something that is barely used in a practical sense and honestly doesn’t have a large barrier to the entry of competing products.

Maybe I am wrong but every time I see people mention Overstock as one is the big pros, I laugh a little. They are worth 1/3000th of Amazon and their Q1 revenue declined 17% from last year. If Bitcoin was so widely used how can the biggest Bitcoin retailer be going backwards? I could see Facebook’s coin gain way more traction and be used far more in a very short time.
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Sorry. What’s the question? Is it:

why can’t someone just make a better Bitcoin?

if that’s the question, the answer is:

they could and likely will eventually (currency is a technological advancement after all).

But, it’s already been 10 years and they haven’t.

frankly, BTC doesn’t need to convert skeptics to be valuable. It’s code. It will keep on keeping on for as long as the (gigantic) network wants it to. It’s gonna do so regardless if folks don’t “get it”.

 
@stbugs if the question is “why won’t Libra or the next Libra simply replace BTC?” it requires a much longer answer. 

I quick response would include a dig at “Bitcoin Cash.”

 
Libra is nothing like BTC. Apples and monkeys. BTC to date has not been hacked or manipulated. It’s the most stable proven crypto currency still. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
@stbugs if the question is “why won’t Libra or the next Libra simply replace BTC?” it requires a much longer answer. 

I quick response would include a dig at “Bitcoin Cash.”
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Libra is coming to replace PayPal and Visa IMHO and just using blockchain functionality. Also, you mentioned it’s been 10 years and no one has, well it’s really only been a couple years since Bitcoin was valuable enough for people aside from alt coins to notice and now Facebook has a “competitor.” My statements were just that, not a question. I guess I’ve seen enough other cycles to know that that first mover isn’t always the last and again if Bitcoin was ubiquitous in actual purchases, I’d have a different opinion of its value. There’s no real barrier to competing products or competitors in the payment space like Facebook.

When I see Overstock (a tiny pimple on the ### of online retailing) mentioned, by you, and also see you after the 10 years having to explain how @Capella can get a friend to transfer coins to him while my wife grabs $20 from my wallet, then it should be obvious why I don’t have much faith in calls for $1million Bitcoin or $18 trillion in market cap. It’s been 10 years and aside from a lot of pretty shady happenings (thefts, exchanges going belly up, manipulation of markets) there’s been very, very little traction. To me, I’ve always thought of the coins as the transfer mechanism not the storage of wealth. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Libra is nothing like BTC. Apples and monkeys. BTC to date has not been hacked or manipulated. It’s the most stable proven crypto currency still. 
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By not hacked, do you mean the actual blockchain and not stuff like people’s accounts just vanishing like Mt. Gox? Most articles on that called it a hack.

 
stbugs said:
By not hacked, do you mean the actual blockchain and not stuff like people’s accounts just vanishing like Mt. Gox? Most articles on that called it a hack.
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Correct. Individual wallets and exchanges getting hacked definitely happens. The BTC blockchain itself is rock solid though 

 
stbugs said:
Libra is coming to replace PayPal and Visa IMHO and just using blockchain functionality. Also, you mentioned it’s been 10 years and no one has, well it’s really only been a couple years since Bitcoin was valuable enough for people aside from alt coins to notice and now Facebook has a “competitor.” My statements were just that, not a question. I guess I’ve seen enough other cycles to know that that first mover isn’t always the last and again if Bitcoin was ubiquitous in actual purchases, I’d have a different opinion of its value. There’s no real barrier to competing products or competitors in the payment space like Facebook.

When I see Overstock (a tiny pimple on the ### of online retailing) mentioned, by you, and also see you after the 10 years having to explain how @Capella can get a friend to transfer coins to him while my wife grabs $20 from my wallet, then it should be obvious why I don’t have much faith in calls for $1million Bitcoin or $18 trillion in market cap. It’s been 10 years and aside from a lot of pretty shady happenings (thefts, exchanges going belly up, manipulation of markets) there’s been very, very little traction. To me, I’ve always thought of the coins as the transfer mechanism not the storage of wealth. 
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Unpacking this:

- Libra is complimentary to BTC. It’s not a competitor.

- BTC’s “market cap” has been enormous for years. Just because it became more mainstream in past years doesn’t mean it didn’t have value before then.

- BTC isn’t ubiquitous for purchases. You are 100 percent correct. It may never be. Nonetheless, it will have value (just like it had value right now and has had value for 10 years)

- The hash power behind BTC is insane today. There is no other network that is even remotely comparable.  The network itself, the security it provides, and the 10 year history of an immutable ledger is the barrier to entry. You can fork (copy) the BTC protocol today and it won’t be as valuable as BTC network.

- no idea what you mean by the Overstock reference

- as set forth in the numbers, BTC doesn’t need Capella or your wife to adopt to reach an insane value 

- very little traction? Facebook just copied most of the Satoshi white paper which essentially thrusts all of this towards mass adoption, and congress is having emergency hearings. If you are talking about traction for daily transactions, you are also wrong. I can use a variety of apps to use BTC to pay for things from Starbucks to Home Depot to Whole Foods. It’s as simple as using ApplePay.

- you have a fundamental under appreciation for the value proposition behind BTC if you ONLY see it as an improvement on the medium of exchange aspect of currency. That’s it’s single biggest flaw (right now). There are other more valuable aspects.

 
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BTC’s UX is another hugely valid criticism. It’s ####. But that’s what we get when a group of mathematicians and cryptographer and engineers create something. 

The confusing backend crap under the hood will slowly become ubiquitous. It’s already happening.

 
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lumpy19 said:
I don't want to kill all the excitement, I love Bitcoin it has made things easier for me as a form of payment but I'm hesitant on the investment side.  The last time we had a run buying and selling was slow and painful and most importantly expensive.  I paid $20 to transfer $5000, I can currently transfer that same amount for about $1. Also concerned about theft mostly because technically this is way over my head and I don't understand everything.
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I (inadvertently) made a good chunk of money during the last btc rally and this one (I'm out now), but yeah, things like this make this seem not so legit:

https://decrypt.co/7587/how-tether-is-fueling-this-booming-bitcoin-bull-run

 
Peyton Marino said:
yea my bad... didn’t realize enjoying the good times was so annoying to others. i’ll just stop if it’s going to be like that.
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I just think it's funny how those posts only ever seem to go in one direction.  After being dormant for a year and a half, it makes us look like we only pay attention to good times I guess.  Fact is we've benefited from stuff like tether printing, market manipulation, fraud, etc.  I don't remember any price updates when that was going on.  Like I'm thinking about people that bought in in December of 2017 and got absolutely wiped out by fomo, I dunno.  Nothing against you though   :heart:

 
Who ever mentioned Link a couple days ago, thanks!  Had bought some before but it never did anything.   But it has been on a terror the last couple of days.  

 
jon_mx said:
Who ever mentioned Link a couple days ago, thanks!  Had bought some before but it never did anything.   But it has been on a terror the last couple of days.  
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Nice.  I sent 3 eth in on the original Chainlink ico (worth about 1k at the time) and got 9,360 link back to my eth address. 

Naturally, I sent 1,360 link to an invalid address on an exchange thinking that Etherlink, which isn't even a thing anymore, was Link and my holdings were worth astronomically more than they really were.  Well, the eth address was valid, but the exchange kept my money because I'd sent in a currency they don't list. 

Then, when the market was down, I sold another 6k at like 75 cents just to swap to gold.  But I held on to some just incase. 

Now I have 2k link and just feel kind of sad.  I could have bought a house if I wasn't so bad at this 

 
The main advantage of Libra (if it happens) will be to bring money into the BTC ecosystem.  once libra coins hit the market all the exchanges will carry it.  that will bode well for BTC in general.

99% of the other crypto coins will go to zero longterm.  This will help BTC going forward as all the money will pump into it.  

I won't buy more at the moment as it could crash back into the 3-5k range before Libra coins hit the market to pump money into the ecosystem. 

 
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