Rethinking the draft (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

I'm still a novice at FF, but it is becming increasingly clear to me that no matter what you do you just can't have enough RB's. Every other position is fixable. The only other consistent position is QB, but in most leagues, there's always a few decent QB's on the waiver wire that you can pick up and play QBBC. WR's, TE, D, and K are all too inconsistent to spend high or medium picks on (like my high draft of Steve Smith this year.) All of these other positions can be solved later.

However, if Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson turn out to be a dud, you're screwed. No matter what you do, there is no way to fix your team in order to win the championship, because all of the RBs have been taken.

Therefore, my new strategy next year will be to simply load up on the RB's. While everyone else is taking QBs and WRs in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rnd, Im going to continue to draft RBs. I will take every available RB I can think of including backups that just MIGHT end up as a starter later on in the season. I might draft a QB or a WR or two late, but TE, D, K just forget it; I'll pick em up later. If out of this all I can just get three solid RB's for the season, my team will have a tremendous advantage. (I hope.)

Laugh at me if you want...

 

[Nate]

Laugh at me if you want...

Thanks. I am.

 

[Nate]

Laugh at me if you want...

Thanks. I am.

Seriously though, this year has been abnormally bad for the elite RBs and it's the LJ, SJax, Gore owners that are hurting. The difference makers so far this season have mostly been WRs. These things have a way of balancing out, however.

 

[Max Power]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me.

I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.

This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

 

[timschochet]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me. I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

1. I'm sorry, I don't see the point in getting the TE in rnd 7. You're not going to get Gates that late, and other than him, what TE is even worth a draft pick? Their consistency level seems even below WR. Same goes for backup QB. 2. Even as far as WR goes, I can see going after ONE stud, though even that is more often than not a crap shoot (look at Smith). For your other WR you can fool around in the waiver wire for several weeks, and you will probably end up with someone decent.3. No one knew that Lamont Jordan would be a steal, but we know that SOMEONE is going to be a steal at RB. Using my formula, Im probably grabbing Lamont Jordan in the 5th, 6th or 7th round, while you are taking a 2nd WR and a backup QB. I don't have any idea whether or not Lamont will be good; I only know he's a potential starter, so I'm grabbing him up, and every other like him I can find.So yeah, I am saying it makes sense to go overboard on this position...

 

[shader]

This is not necessarily a good strategy. Going into the draft, knowing you are going to start out picking RB, RB, RB, RB is just not smart. You go for the best player available, period. Take a look back at your draft and look at all the talent at WR that you left behind because you HAD to have a great rb.

There are plenty of ways to win at fantasy football, and I'm not saying your strategy might not work. Heck, I tried it before. I once drafted six straight rb's to start out. But inevitably 3 of them get hurt, one loses goalline carries, etc.

I personally like to build a team with stud WR's, one solid RB, and a load of sleeper RB's. By the end of the year, I usually am doing quite well.

I guess my main point is not to pass up Chad Johnson for Maurice Jones-Drew just because you think you have to have a rb. Johnson is a sure stud, Jones-Drew is not. Yet, Drew went ahead of Johnson in most drafts..

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I don't think it matters.

 

[Jayrod]

I don't think it matters.

I think I'm just going to pull names out of a hat next year.

 

[timschochet]

This is not necessarily a good strategy. Going into the draft, knowing you are going to start out picking RB, RB, RB, RB is just not smart. You go for the best player available, period. Take a look back at your draft and look at all the talent at WR that you left behind because you HAD to have a great rb.There are plenty of ways to win at fantasy football, and I'm not saying your strategy might not work. Heck, I tried it before. I once drafted six straight rb's to start out. But inevitably 3 of them get hurt, one loses goalline carries, etc.I personally like to build a team with stud WR's, one solid RB, and a load of sleeper RB's. By the end of the year, I usually am doing quite well.I guess my main point is not to pass up Chad Johnson for Maurice Jones-Drew just because you think you have to have a rb. Johnson is a sure stud, Jones-Drew is not. Yet, Drew went ahead of Johnson in most drafts..

Using your comparison: if Ocho has a bad year (as he did the 1st half of last year- I know because I owned him!) you can always do something about it- there is always a waiver guy available out there, it just takes time to study it. But if MJD is a bust, and you have no one behind him, you'll never find anyone either.If you took 6 RBs, great. So three got hurt, that's when you replace them with waiver wire WRs, QB etc. The other three were hopefully starting for you, and that is the formula I want to acheive.

 

[Max Power]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me. I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

1. I'm sorry, I don't see the point in getting the TE in rnd 7. You're not going to get Gates that late, and other than him, what TE is even worth a draft pick? Their consistency level seems even below WR. Same goes for backup QB. 2. Even as far as WR goes, I can see going after ONE stud, though even that is more often than not a crap shoot (look at Smith). For your other WR you can fool around in the waiver wire for several weeks, and you will probably end up with someone decent.3. No one knew that Lamont Jordan would be a steal, but we know that SOMEONE is going to be a steal at RB. Using my formula, Im probably grabbing Lamont Jordan in the 5th, 6th or 7th round, while you are taking a 2nd WR and a backup QB. I don't have any idea whether or not Lamont will be good; I only know he's a potential starter, so I'm grabbing him up, and every other like him I can find.So yeah, I am saying it makes sense to go overboard on this position...

Im not going to argue my strategy. Different things work for different people. But a TE in the 7th will get you a solid player. Yeah TE is inconsistent, but what do you think will be left in the 13th round? I lucked out and got winslow in the 7th this season.I personally like taking 2 QBs in the mid rounds. Prior to the season I had Romo and Leinart ranked 7a & 7b. One worked out and one didnt. No worries.So seriously your plan is to start the draft with 9 of the first 10 rounds being RBs?

 

[timschochet]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me. I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

1. I'm sorry, I don't see the point in getting the TE in rnd 7. You're not going to get Gates that late, and other than him, what TE is even worth a draft pick? Their consistency level seems even below WR. Same goes for backup QB. 2. Even as far as WR goes, I can see going after ONE stud, though even that is more often than not a crap shoot (look at Smith). For your other WR you can fool around in the waiver wire for several weeks, and you will probably end up with someone decent.3. No one knew that Lamont Jordan would be a steal, but we know that SOMEONE is going to be a steal at RB. Using my formula, Im probably grabbing Lamont Jordan in the 5th, 6th or 7th round, while you are taking a 2nd WR and a backup QB. I don't have any idea whether or not Lamont will be good; I only know he's a potential starter, so I'm grabbing him up, and every other like him I can find.So yeah, I am saying it makes sense to go overboard on this position...

Im not going to argue my strategy. Different things work for different people. But a TE in the 7th will get you a solid player. Yeah TE is inconsistent, but what do you think will be left in the 13th round? I lucked out and got winslow in the 7th this season.I personally like taking 2 QBs in the mid rounds. Prior to the season I had Romo and Leinart ranked 7a & 7b. One worked out and one didnt. No worries.So seriously your plan is to start the draft with 9 of the first 10 rounds being RBs?

Well, 9 out of 10 may be drastic. Maybe the first 6 or 7, though. Again, every other position is fixable.

 

[shader]

This is not necessarily a good strategy. Going into the draft, knowing you are going to start out picking RB, RB, RB, RB is just not smart. You go for the best player available, period. Take a look back at your draft and look at all the talent at WR that you left behind because you HAD to have a great rb.There are plenty of ways to win at fantasy football, and I'm not saying your strategy might not work. Heck, I tried it before. I once drafted six straight rb's to start out. But inevitably 3 of them get hurt, one loses goalline carries, etc.I personally like to build a team with stud WR's, one solid RB, and a load of sleeper RB's. By the end of the year, I usually am doing quite well.I guess my main point is not to pass up Chad Johnson for Maurice Jones-Drew just because you think you have to have a rb. Johnson is a sure stud, Jones-Drew is not. Yet, Drew went ahead of Johnson in most drafts..

Using your comparison: if Ocho has a bad year (as he did the 1st half of last year- I know because I owned him!) you can always do something about it- there is always a waiver guy available out there, it just takes time to study it. But if MJD is a bust, and you have no one behind him, you'll never find anyone either.If you took 6 RBs, great. So three got hurt, that's when you replace them with waiver wire WRs, QB etc. The other three were hopefully starting for you, and that is the formula I want to acheive.

And I would beat you year after year as I have better QB's, WR's and solid RB's. It's crazy to just decide that you are taking a RB no matter what, when there are players that are clearly better available at other positions. Again, alot depends on your league setup. If your league requires you to start 3 RB's, then yes, RB's would be more valuable than my system, where we start 1 rb, 1 wr and 4 flex. But regardless, if you are a novice and asking for advice, my advice regarding the draft is to never make a firm plan on what you are going to do. Take the best player available no matter what

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I draft 13 QBs every year, and this year it is finally paying off like I knew it would. How many of you drafted QBs who have since been injured/benched/platooned/coin flip traded this year? It's flawless!!

 

[JimboJim]

I don't think it matters.

I think I'm just going to pull names out of a hat next year.

I really don't think it matters.

Two twelve team leagues.

From the three hole, one draft netted me Addai, James & Peterson.

The other from the three hole and I ended up with LJ, Thomas Jones and Benson.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I don't think it matters.

I think I'm just going to pull names out of a hat next year.

I really don't think it matters.

Two twelve team leagues.

From the three hole, one draft netted me Addai, James & Peterson.

The other from the three hole and I ended up with LJ, Thomas Jones and Benson.

Not only doesn't it matter, but it will likely just irritate the people he plays fantasy football with. Might make them mad enough that they won't trade with him on principle and he'll be stuck starting David Carr and Nate Burleson at WR#1.Good luck. You still might win, I saw a guy lost to another guy who had half his roster on bye for the week.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Welcome to fbg's! Stick around in the offseason-there are some incredible discussions that take place regarding different draft strategies. If you keep an open mind, you'll find some things that may seem unconventional but can really work to your advantage.

 

[xenith]

Sorry guys, but you can draft 5 straight RBs and still suck. If you don't pick the best available players, your team will likely suck.

However, Tim, being new to FF you've already learned a valuable lesson. RBs are key, just don't take it too far.

 

[Steeler07]

In one of my drafts I had the horrible (at the time) 8th spot, I went like this:

QB, WR, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR, RB, RB, RB, RB

I'm 5-0, so what this means is with some good luck and solid middle round drafting, you don't need to go RB, RB, RB with your first 3 which honestly doesn't make sense to me.

 

[EBF]

There's definitely a big luck factor in FF. I've found that having the right 1-2 players in a given season can make a huge difference. Remember Culpepper and Manning in 2005? Tomlinson and Jackson in 2006? These guys were already elite players, but for whatever reason the stars aligned and they had monster years that were way beyond the most optimistic preseason projections. It happens every year. A handful guys play way over their heads and carry teams to championships.

It looks like Ronnie Brown, Jason Witten, Plaxico Burress, and Randy Moss might be those guys this year. They're playing incredibly well. And while you have to tip your hat to owners who had the good sense to pick these guys, I don't think there's any denying that having a veteran player explode for a career year is more luck than skill in many cases.

This year the RBs just aren't playing that well. Tomlinson, Gore, and LJ have been mediocre. Westbrook and Addai have been dinged. A number of other talented backs are in the twilight of their careers (Alexander, James) or stuck on mediocre teams (Peterson, Lynch).

Does this mean you shouldn't draft RBs high? No. For all we know, next year will be the year of the RB. The bottom line is know your format and pick the best team you can. That's all you can really do.

 

[JHuber77]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me.

I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.

This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

Round 8 it shows you took a QB

 

[AnonymousBob]

Gates is money. The third round or later is an absolute steal. Remember, points are points-it doesn't matter what position you get them from. Don't get too caught up in thinking you have to have a million rb's to win at this game.

I made it to our championship sporting the likes of Bettis as my #2 rb one year (his last or second to last season). Another time I limped to the championship with Barlow (yuck) as my rb. Both times my wr's and te carried me. Last season I had garbage at the wr position yet blasted my way to the championship with LT and Gore.

IMO, the most important thing is to keep on your toes during the season-trading and pickups can work wonders.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I'm having a decent season and I went RB heavy in an auction. Grabbed Portis/Betts, JJ/MB3, Foster/DeWill, and Freddie. Ended up trading JJ, Foster, Freddie and Betts in package deals to get Wayne, AJ, KJ, Schaub and Dallas Clark.

 

[turleyfan]

Guy in my money league 2 years ago went 5 RB's in the first 6 rounds. We made fun of him. He won the league that year.

Now the punchline: he hasn't tried it since. And neither has anyone else.

 

[Max Power]

I wouldnt go overboard. I took 6 RBs in the first 10 rounds and it worked out really well for me.

I seriously recommend going RB,RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,TE,QB,RB,RB,RB to start a draft. I have followed this blueprint for a few years now and always end up with a very strong team. Of course alter this method as value dictates.

This year was money as round 8 was lamont Jordan and round 10 was kevin jones.

Round 8 it shows you took a QB

whoops, my bad...Jordan was rd 9, Leinart was 8

 

[FFLaddiction]

My leauge is an auction style draft, and in three years I have come up with the following rules:

1) Avoid players from local fan favorite teams like the plauge. Around here, Saints (lol) and Cowboys command a high price. At least 4 people out of 12 are already out of contention becuse they paid huge amounts of money for players from their favorite team.

2) Although you want solid RB's, most people overvalue them. I picked up Tom Brady, Chad Johnson, and Houshmenzada for decent prices compared to RB's with the same numbers (well, no one has Brady's numbers).

3) Stay away from the big name backs. Of the big 3, only one is going to produce expected numbers every year. Work in the range of back projected from 5 - 15 to compliment a solid roster of receivers and a top notch QB.

 

[AnonymousBob]

My leauge is an auction style draft, and in three years I have come up with the following rules:

1) Avoid players from local fan favorite teams like the plauge. Around here, Saints (lol) and Cowboys command a high price. At least 4 people out of 12 are already out of contention becuse they paid huge amounts of money for players from their favorite team.

2) Although you want solid RB's, most people overvalue them. I picked up Tom Brady, Chad Johnson, and Houshmenzada for decent prices compared to RB's with the same numbers (well, no one has Brady's numbers).

3) Stay away from the big name backs. Of the big 3, only one is going to produce expected numbers every year. Work in the range of back projected from 5 - 15 to compliment a solid roster of receivers and a top notch QB.

I agree with you on #1. Not sure I agree with #2/3 (they seem rather similar statements). I overpaid for LT this season. I'm 4-1 with my one loss being less than one point. Of course I didn't think Jackson would do as well as he did last year. I'll overpay for someone that has proven year in and year out to be a stud. I'm a bit skittish when it comes to guys that have only done it one year. I don't usually doubt their talent, I simply question if all the stars aligned for that guy.

Some people want a solid roster all the way through. I prefer a couple of superstars-after that I throw a bunch of crap at the wall and pray something will stick. Different strokes...

 

[Ozymandias]

You guys apparently never read the thread on kicker strategy, from 4 or 5 years ago.

Corner the kickers, and you'll rule.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

You guys apparently never read the thread on kicker strategy, from 4 or 5 years ago. Corner the kickers, and you'll rule.

 

[BusterTBronco]

You'll be making a big mistake, IMO. Most leagues start 2 RB and 3 WR. The way I approach it, these 5 players are the "engine" of my team. I always try to use my first 5 picks to land the best combination of 2 RB and 3 WR that I possibly can. I've had great results with this approach in the past and continue to have good results using this approach in all 4 of my fantasy drafts this year.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

 

[bigfeet_88]

If you were quick/savy enough to get them, there have been plenty of good fill in RBs on the WW this year (even if only for 1 spot start): Derrick Ward, Jason Wright, Kenton Keith, Brian Leonard, Sammy Morris, Kenny Watson, Correll Buckhalter, Deshawn Wynn, Najeh Davenport, Ernest Graham.

 

[AnonymousBob]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

It takes skill to trade.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

It takes skill to trade.

There are hundreds of threads here about lopsided trades...no skill needed if dealing with a team with no chance to make playoffs and throwing in the towel.

 

[shakeybarn]

Each year varies... last year there was so many RBBCs there was no way you could do that.. you just paired them up or took bets. One concept (pending how many teams, position requirements, etc).

Is grab a tier 1, a tier 2 or 3... and then take a bunch of fliers... later as you are shoring up WR, and adding a QB or two....

Fliers I grabbed most often (esp great for dynasty):

Brian Leonard (didn't own SJax), Kevin Jones, Michael Turner, and Vernand Morency.

One is working out great for bye weeks (and perhaps beyond) with Leonard. Kevin Jones is about be KJ for the whole second half of the season. Turner... we know what he can do, should LT go down. And Morency still has an open door to win the job. Doesn't always work like that... but if you sit tight.. you tend to hit one home run... maybe two... nice if youre stud tier #1 goes down, and/or stud tier #2/#3 doesn't workout.

 

[shader]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

It takes skill to trade.

There are hundreds of threads here about lopsided trades...no skill needed if dealing with a team with no chance to make playoffs and throwing in the towel.

A good trader is what puts you over the top year after year. If I make 15 little trades, all netting me minimal improvements..by the 15th trade, my team is ten times better than when I started. Yet other teams sit still and make no movements...It's why no matter who I draft, I'll always finish near the top. Trading.

 

[timschochet]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

It takes skill to trade.

There are hundreds of threads here about lopsided trades...no skill needed if dealing with a team with no chance to make playoffs and throwing in the towel.

A good trader is what puts you over the top year after year. If I make 15 little trades, all netting me minimal improvements..by the 15th trade, my team is ten times better than when I started. Yet other teams sit still and make no movements...It's why no matter who I draft, I'll always finish near the top. Trading.

My league is all novices like me; were all in our 2nd year. Maybe because of this, nobody ever trades. I offer trades, and nobody takes me up. Last year, there was exactly one trade. This year one trade so far.

 

[Canowupass]

I've decided that next year I'm going to be luckier.

 

[TommyGilmore]

I tried this once. 15 rounds, 15 running backs. Draft was 3 weeks before the season started. By the time the season started, only 7 of the 15 were starters. I cut the rest and picked up a bunch of scrub WRs and QBs. I traded some of the other RBs for a starting QB and a couple WRs. But I could not attract top-tier talent.

I had a decent team in the end but missed the playoffs.

If I were to try it again, I'd start with a solid nucleus (RB-RB-WR-QB) and then load up on the back end of the draft with RBs. But there's just no replacement for Torry Holt or Chad Johnson in the 2nd/3rd round.

 

[thatguythere]

I've decided that next year I'm going to be luckier.

me too.

 

[pettifogger]

The only skill part of this FF is the draft. Once the draft is over it's nothing but luck... Who you place in lineups, who you challenge (sch.), who you trade for, who you pickup off waivers, who gets hurt on your team, what players smoke pot, etc.....simple to see nothing but luck!

I think the exact opposite. On draft day everyone has the same information and adjusts to a greater or lesser extent off of concensus ADPs that everyone has seen. Certainly there's skill involved, especially in later rounds. After the draft, though, there's a much greater variability in what owners know, on how much research they do, how far they plan ahead, how much risk analysis they do. There's also a greater variability in the risk/reward of making the right choices. Of course there's luck involved too but good owners plan ahead by backfilling a good bench, grabbing players who have a high upside if the starter ahead of them gets hurt, etc.

 

[NeverEnough]

However, if Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson turn out to be a dud, you're screwed. No matter what you do, there is no way to fix your team in order to win the championship, because all of the RBs have been taken.

Is that why I am 4-1 with LJ & SA as my starters?

Laugh at me if you want...

I am