Revisting recent Patriot drafts (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Months after and before draft chat heats up, lets take a relaxed view of recent New England Patriot drafts. Why? During last year's draft I got mad at all of the unjustified praise that was strewn at the feet of Bill Belichick for trading down to acquire additional draft selections. I had noticed when he made trades in the past that people seemed to give him undue praise and that he hadn't been hitting on his draft picks with nearly as much accuracy as people were assuming..

If we take a step back to this year's draft we can take a look at a live discussion going on in the Shark Pool. And how people seemed to be giving Belichick the benefit of the doubt before anything had played out. I have no idea how things will play out but my gut was telling me that the praise was unwarranted.

Even Sig seemed to get caught up in the 'praise' Belichick moment.

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Bracie Smathers

Posted 29 April 2011 - 07:18 PM

Sigmund Bloom, on 29 April 2011 - 07:16 PM, said:

NE takes Mallett to

1) trade Hoyer to a QB needy team for way too much a la Whitehurst

2) develop Mallett and trade him for a king's ransom a la Schaub

Ya know, I'm not bowing down to kiss Belichick's ring.

I think his draft sucks dog-stuff thru a straw.

My reponse - Its horrible.

The king wears no cloths.

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My response lead to a spirited discussion and I'll let your imagination fill in the blanks on how that went. Time will tell what the Pats got from this last draft but we can look at other drafts. This morning Peter King from Sports Illustrated took a look back at the 2010 New England draft where Belichick was widely praised and this is what he discovered.

Peter King MMQB critical look at Patriot draft 2010

8. I think it was a bit of a stunner to see the Patriots on Saturday whack wideout Taylor Price, the third-round pick in 2010 (chosen before NaVorro Bowman and Jimmy Graham), before ever really giving him a regular-season chance to play. The top three rounds of the Pats' draft in 2010 -- in which they ended up taking five players and trading one third-round pick in a package for a pass-rusher, Derrick Burgess, who didn't pan out -- are just more ammo for those who think that when Bill Belichick lost trusted scout Thomas Dimitroff and de facto GM Scott Pioli in back-to-back seasons (2008, 2009), he never replaced the brainpower and the ability of those guys to argue him out of picks.

Round Draft spot Player Summary of NE career

1 27 CB Devin McCourty

Great first year, beat often this year. Overall a plus.

2 47 TE Rob Gronkowski

A phenom. Big star. One of the best Pats picks in years.

2 53 DE J. Cunningham

Done nothing for NE's rush. One sack in almost 2 years.

2 62 LB Brandon Spikes

Passable MLB. Nothing special.

3 90 WR Taylor Price

Two years, four games played, three catches. Debacle.

3 Trade DL Derrick Burgess

Traded a 3+5 to Oakland -- and he delivered 5 sacks.

Jimmy Johnson has been a close adviser to Belichick over the years, and I'm sure he's told Belichick what he told me long ago: Stockpiling picks allows you to make mistakes and get rid of the mistakes without hanging onto them for a long time. Just cut your losses. That's what Belichick did with Price.

After the draft I handed out draft grades for this last year and New England got the worst grade by me which lead to more spirited discussion.--------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Round Pick Player Position School

1 17 (17) Nate Solder T Colorado

2 1 (33) Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia

2 24 (56) Shane Vereen RB California

3 9 (73) Stevan Ridley RB LSU

3 10 (74) Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas

5 7 (138) Marcus Cannon G TCU

5 28 (159) Lee Smith TE Marshall

6 29 (194) Markell Carter LB Central Arkansas

7 17 (219) Malcolm Williams CB TCU

Solder is ok but the Pats gave up Richard Seymour for a few years on this pick Solder on one side of the scale and Seymour on the other cancel each out out, no grade.

Trade out of first round for second and future first next year but they could have gotten Mark Ingram, hmmmn, no grade.

Ras is ok but a gimp puppy and a reach C. Vereen is another reach C- and Ridley is a major reach F especially when you consider the Pats could have gotten Ingram and went with two jokers. I love Mallett but something is wrong with him to fall so far in a draft when teams were reaching at the top. He won’t see the field for at least five years pending injuries so it seem like a waste since no other team liked him so the logic that the Pats will develop and trade him doesn’t make sense since no-one wanted him. Horrible draft grade gets bumped up from an F with the nice trade with the Raiders for the future second rounder and the extra first next year but no sugar coating this one, the emperor wears no cloths. Bill Belichick has officially jumped the shark on this draft , final grade D+.

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I was hyper critical of the Pats draft because I see a Super Bowl contending team who had major weakness' in their inability to rush the passer and I felt that they could have benefited by moving up for a #1WR because Tom Brady is 34 and their window of opportunity is closing as Brady's career winds down.

Belichick's strategy of moving down to acquire additional draft picks instead of using those picks to acquire blue-chip talent and load up for a Super Bowl run while Brady is still producting like a HOFer is unjustifiable.

Sure it is possible to find blue-chip talent later in the draft but more blue chip talent is acquired at the top of the draft.

A hard boiled logical mind like Belichick should see the probabilities of finding blue-chip talent to shore up weakness' on a Super Bowl contending team are of more value since their is a time-line where his HOF QB clock will run out.

If anyone dismisses the value that Tom Brady has had on Belichick's career you should pull-up the W/L record of BB with Tom Brady and sans Brady.

 

[RUSF18]

The 2010 draft produced a Pro Bowl CB as a ROOKIE. I don't care how much McCourty slipped this year (I'm a Rutgers guy so maybe I'm underselling it), but that is a major win and pairing it with a guy like Gronk in the 2nd round is amazing. BFD on missing on those other guys (after 1.75 seasons).

 

[Mr. Peterson]

You're gonna get Patriot fans come on here and blindly stick up for thier king. Belichick has lost some of his touch and they won't see it that way no matter what evidence you put in front of them.

 

[Boston]

You're gonna get Patriot fans come on here and blindly stick up for thier king. Belichick has lost some of his touch and they won't see it that way no matter what evidence you put in front of them.

I totally disagree with this...there was a time where that was the case because BB deserved it...yet right now many Patriot fans are frustrated with how this team has been constructed the past few years especially when it come to their defense...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'll still give BB the benefit of the doubt because of the willingness to trade down and stockpile more picks, while probably still getting the players he is targeting (even if they are misses, the point is that he understands that their valuation players and distribution of multiple picks gives them a great shot to trade down and not miss much on their board).

This year once again, 2 firsts and 2 seconds. That gives you the luxury of taking risk/reward guys like Gronk.

I won't stand here and say BB is a good talent evaluator and hit rate is low, however, the way he plays the "game" of the draft by getting extra picks and taking fliers when you can is very smart. Perhaps other teams could do more with the picks NE gets, but few actively play the draft to end up with those picks, and that is one of the main things I am praising - which creates the opportunity to take a Mallett. Even if Mallett busts, the payoff if he does hit more than justifies the pick, which they couldn't do without the trade down and defer benefits annual strategy.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I always wonder at the psychology of people intent to prove they're smarter than belichick.

are you pissed because he gets praised and you don't?

I would have to say, on the whole, I'm not particularly unhappy with his management of the pats over the years.

how are the colts lookin' right now?

 

[David Yudkin]

I generally would look at first and second round picks as big ticket picks and anything after more of a crap shoot. In the past 5 years . . .

2011 Pick 17 Nate Solder

Played pretty well this year and the Pats needed OL help. Not sure why people would find fault with this pick.

2011 Pick 33 Ras-I Dowling

Got hurt and barely saw any action. Too soon to tell much of anything.

2011 Pick 56 Shane Vereen

Also got hurt in the early going but has not done a whole heck of a lot.

2010 Pick 27 Devin McCourty

Great as a rookie. Not so much his follow up year. Still probably a net gain but his stock is mostly on the decline at this point.

2010 Pick 42 Rob Gronkowski

Looks like a HOF tight end so far.

2010 Pick 62 Brandon Spikes

Has shown some flashes but overall has been disappointing.

2009 Pick 34 Patrick Chung

Been solid so far.

2009 Pick 40 Ron Brace

Hasn't done much yet.

2009 Pick 41 Darius Butler

Didn't do much for the Pats. Not all that much better for the Panthers.

2009 Pick 58 Sebastian Vollmer

Has been very good so far.

2008 Pick 10 Jerod Mayo

Been very good so far . . . but they traded down here too.

2008 Pick lost to Spygate

2008 Pick 62 Terrence Wheatley

Nothing to see here.

2007 Pick 24 Brandon Meriweather

Big Bang Clock seemed to do ok and then was dumped. At this point has to be considered a bust.

2007 Traded another 2nd round pick for Wes Welker which looks like an exceptional trade.

That's 9 picks on defense and 4 on offense (plus Welker). It's not like they haven't tried to pick up defensive players . . . it's that they didn't work out.

Going back further . . .

2006 Pick 21 Laurence Maroney

Mostly a bust.

2006 Pick 36 Chad Jackson

Epic bust.

2005 Pick 32 Logan Mankins

Home run.

2004 Pick 21 Vince Wilfork

Another home run.

2004 Pick 32 Ben Watson

Not terrible, but not great either.

2003 Pick 13 Ty Warren

Played well when he actually suited up. Banged up his last few years.

2003 Pick 36 Eugene Wilson

Decent starter when he was in town.

2003 Pick 45 Bethel Johnson

Epic fail.

2002 Pick 21 Daniel Graham

Worked out ok but was mostly used to block.

2002 Pick 65 Deion Branch

One of the few WR picks that ever did anything for NE.

2001 Pick 6 Richard Seymour

Another big producer.

2001 Pick 48 Matt Light

Solid starter ever since.

2000 Pick 46 Adrian Klemm

Bust of an OLman.

Overall, I would say the Pats drafted better than most teams. Most teams hit a few, miss a few, and have several decent players/starters out of their early round picks. NE certainly has missed lately on most of their higher defensive picks and have not done great at skill position players since Brady.

Bottom line, they still have won a lot of games, but their draft record lately hasn't been one of the reasons why.

 

[Getinthemix]

Bottom line, they still have won a lot of games, but their draft record lately hasn't been one of the reasons why.

I believe this was the whole point of this thread. That after Pioli and Dimitroff left the results have been subpar

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Bottom line, they still have won a lot of games, but their draft record lately hasn't been one of the reasons why.

I believe this was the whole point of this thread. That after Pioli and Dimitroff left the results have been subpar

so, what you're saying is that you prefer the 2006-07 drafts to the more recent ones.great point.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

You're gonna get Patriot fans come on here and blindly stick up for thier king. Belichick has lost some of his touch and they won't see it that way no matter what evidence you put in front of them.

I totally disagree with this...there was a time where that was the case because BB deserved it...yet right now many Patriot fans are frustrated with how this team has been constructed the past few years especially when it come to their defense...

I give Pat fans credit as many were upset at draft time. Some replied that they didn't like the trade down and they wanted Belichick to move up for a pass rusher. So I don't paint a wide group of fans in a broad pscychophantic brush. Their are many fans who evaluate drafts objectively and I have Pat fans to some of the best in they generally don't get as upset as others because their team has done well for a long time so they tend to be more honest. They realize that the draft hasn't gone as well as it has been portrayed for New England recently. So I tend to give Patriot fans a lot of credit because I've found them to be more objective on average.

 

[ponchsox]

And your point is? The Pats seem to be pretty good despite all the draft criticism. I will take a 9-3 record over a bad team that nailed more draft picks.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think one of the many differences between the op and belichick, besides belichick's obvious disadvantage in football iq, is that belichick doesn't know yet how this year's draft crop will turn out and the op has already got it figured out --- so, once again he's got the rest of us at a bit of a disadvantage.

 

[Getinthemix]

Bottom line, they still have won a lot of games, but their draft record lately hasn't been one of the reasons why.

I believe this was the whole point of this thread. That after Pioli and Dimitroff left the results have been subpar

so, what you're saying is that you prefer the 2006-07 drafts to the more recent ones.great point.

The only point I was making is that Yudkin actually helped the OP with his contention. Thanks though.

 

[comfortably numb]

Hernandez not being mentioned cause he was a 4th RD pick?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'll still give BB the benefit of the doubt because of the willingness to trade down and stockpile more picks, while probably still getting the players he is targeting (even if they are misses, the point is that he understands that their valuation players and distribution of multiple picks gives them a great shot to trade down and not miss much on their board).This year once again, 2 firsts and 2 seconds. That gives you the luxury of taking risk/reward guys like Gronk.I won't stand here and say BB is a good talent evaluator and hit rate is low, however, the way he plays the "game" of the draft by getting extra picks and taking fliers when you can is very smart. Perhaps other teams could do more with the picks NE gets, but few actively play the draft to end up with those picks, and that is one of the main things I am praising - which creates the opportunity to take a Mallett. Even if Mallett busts, the payoff if he does hit more than justifies the pick, which they couldn't do without the trade down and defer benefits annual strategy.

I disagree Sig. I have no reason to give Bill Belichick the benefit of doubt with his recent draft trade downs. A few years back when he traded Richard Seymour a Browns forum blew up with agonized chants about how 'Belichick did it again'. He is soo smart, he's smarter than everyone. No one can ever question BB. They went on saying 'He raped the Raiders, got rid of another high priced injury prone premadonna and would probably get a top-ten pick' blah blah blah. Follow the trade. Richard Seymour has looked solid. The Pats have tried but haven't yet been able to find his replacement.The crux of my critism is 34 year old Tom Brady and how the window will close for the Pats when his career winds down. Peyton Manning looked indestructable a few months ago but things can change quickly. I feel that a team with a HOF QB and a HOF coach with extra picks should use them especially when BB could have moved up to get his pass rusher. Demitrof, ironically who worked under Belichick did not own two first round picks but he pulled off a dramatic deal to move up to get a #1 WR Julio Jones. I felt that was a wise deal for both Atlanta and Cleveland. A good team moving up to land blue chip talent and a bad team moving down to fill multiple holes. That is logical, that makes sense, I applauded both teams for that deal. BB could have moved up and gotten Aldin Smith. Smith would have been a perfect fit as an OLB/DE in the Pat defensive scheme. Smith was selected one pick after the Julio Jones selection so it would not have been a reach. San Fran is doing pretty good with Aldin.Point, Patriots got praise when the variable was unknown draft picks but early returns on past trade downs by BB are in and today even Peter King did a double take. I don't know how the trades will eventually work out but I've seen the evidence that BB's past deeals haven't been stellar so he does not get the benefit of doubt from me because he hasn't earned it. If you want to praise his coaching skills I'm right with you but if you tell me I can't question his draft trade downs I disagree.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

if you tell me I can't question his draft trade downs I disagree.

you can question anything you want but this thread comes off more as the usual bitter and jealous rant.this is probably the most informative line of all your rather extensive axe grindings:

I have no idea how things will play out