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Ronnie Brown (1 Viewer)

Horses Mouth

Footballguy
I'm using this site and Huddle. one interesting difference is Ronnie Brown. This site has his projected at RB15 which puts him in the third round and the Huddle has him at 33 behind guys like Fred Taylor, Forte, etc. They obviously feel he's in full blown RBBC territory or not completely healthy. Thoughts?

 
I think a lot of people here hope he is completely healthy and thus will return to Top 15 status. I think the others realize that it may take a while for him to fully recover and notice that Williams is wowing in camp and doing the right things and may steal a good bit of production from Brown.

Which side is right? Hard to say so far. I would split the difference between the two and rank in the low to mid 20's until we see Brown in solid game action.

 
I will always bet against the guy coming back from an ACL this "quickly." Sure, I will be wrong occasionally (Deuce springs to mind) but I don't like the cost of being wrong on this guy. I would much rather draft Ricky in the 9th round than Ronnie in the 3rd (based on their current ADP).

 
Ronnie Brown's final positional ranking will be affected by his recovery from last season's injury and the presence of Ricky Williams on the roster but lets not look past Ricky's own injury concerns and the fact that he hasn't exactly been highly productive in his on again off again love affair with the NFL/CFL. Below are the stats for runners 31-35 and 13-19 in 2007. If Ricky stays healthy and both players get 160 +/- touches each then 33 isn't out of the question but if either one comes up lame then 15 +/- is feasible.

31 Travis Henry RB, DEN 167 691 4.1 57.6 33 4 3 1

32 Cedric Benson RB, CHI 196 674 3.4 61.3 43 4 3 2

33 M. Morris RB, SEA 140 628 4.5 44.9 46 4 1 1

34 J. Norwood RB, ATL 103 613 6.0 40.9 67 1 0 0

35 Derrick Ward RB, NYG 125 602 4.8 75.3 44 3 2 1

Ronnie Brown RB, MIA 119 602 5.1 86.0 60 4 0 0

13 Frank Gore RB, SFO 260 1102 4.2 73.5 43 5 3 2

14 Joseph Addai RB, IND 261 1072 4.1 71.5 23 12 0 0

15 Justin Fargas RB, OAK 222 1009 4.5 72.1 48 4 3 1

B. Jacobs RB, NYG 202 1009 5.0 91.7 43 4 4 3

17 S. Jackson RB, STL 237 1002 4.2 83.5 54 5 3 2

18 Marion Barber RB, DAL 204 975 4.8 60.9 54 10 1 0

19 Ryan Grant RB, GNB 188 956 5.1 63.7 66 8 0 0

 
Brown has had a lot of time to recover so as long as he doesn't overdue it he should be fine (Willis McGahee comes to mind). I also don't think Ricky Williams should be considered too much of a threat to take any of Brown's carries unless he gets injured. Then he's obviously valuable but the Dolphins will likely ease Brown back into action. Slowly at first and then having him involved more and more. At least that's what I hope they do.

Chad Pennington's arrival helps him too. Considering the other options at QB there were before.

 
How important do people on this board consider having Ricky as a handcuff if you own Brown?
I have Brown in one league, and Ricky in another (and Parmele in both), and I actually think I'd rather have Ricky for this year. I think they're going to use Ricky as a battering ram to protect a fledgling passing game, reduce turnovers and shorten games. Ricky's already old by RB standards, so they have no reason to save him for anything. I think they'll give Brown carries and work him back into the lineup as his body can endure it, but there's no hurry as this team isn't playing for anything except the future this year. So when I look at Ricky this year I'm thinking along the lines of LenDale White circa 2007; I think Brown will end up with maybe 150-175 carries and a better ypc average than Ricky.In short, to answer your question, I think this is a RBBC of sorts, but that Brown is more Ricky's handcuff than vice-versa.
 
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So basically Ricky will be the starter and RB the backup? That seems a bit extreme. Anyone else share this view?

 
So basically Ricky will be the starter and RB the backup? That seems a bit extreme. Anyone else share this view?
Historically, Ricky's a more talented back, he's had some great seasons in the NFL. Ronnie's had a great couple of games. Outside of those games, he has looked pedestrian. Not terrible, but nothing amazing.So we have one aging back who used to have a lot of talent vs one back coming off of a relatively recent ACL tear with, shall we say "undetermined?" talent. There are a ton of question marks in that comparison.I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ricky have a better season. Of course I wouldn't be surprised to see it go the other way either. But as several people have pointed out, Ricky can be had MUCH cheaper than Ronnie, so if I were going to target one, it would be Ricky.
 
RB15 seems overly optimistic. Look at all the strikes against him:

- Sharing carries with a former Pro Bowl RB

- Playing for a new coaching staff

- Recovering from a serious knee injury

- Inconsistent in the seasons before 2007

I would feel uneasy about relying on Ronnie this season.

 
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RB15 seems overly optimistic. Look at all the strikes against him:- Sharing carries with a former Pro Bowl RB- Playing for a new coaching staff- Recovering from a serious knee injury- Inconsistent in the seasons before 2007I would feel uneasy about relying on Ronnie this season.
Sharing carries with a 30 plus year old RB who has been irrelevant for the past 3 years is not much of a concern imo. The knee injury is a legitimate concern but with how Brown has looked and ran during the offseason and actually healthy enough to get carries in preseason game #1 tells me he is more than recovered and will be ready to go week 1. Any RW owners thinking he will be getting 15-20 carries a game is in for a rude awakening.
 
How important do people on this board consider having Ricky as a handcuff if you own Brown?
I own Brown and have no plans to roster Ricky. I see Brown's upside as being much higher than Ricky's. I view Ricky's best case scenario as a 50/50 split on rushing and 40/60 on receiving. Brown could easily get 2/3 of both, even from the beginning. There have been lots of people saying they think Brown will be held back at the start of the season and slowly given more of the load as the season goes on. That theory made a lot of sense in April but doesn't make any sense now. Since they haven't held him back in training camp, I don't see why they would hold him back once the season starts.There's also a lot of discussion about the 'value' Ricky provides at RB45. If he performs as RB35, where's the value? Can he really help you when you're starting the 35th ranked RB? I'd much rather draft Brown at RB17 who's upside may be 8-12. That 'value' is worth much more.
 
I see this as full blown RBBC, with Williams getting mroe goal-line touches.

I could see Ricky actually winning the starting job outright too, if Brown is slow to recover. The season is lost, so put Brown on IR until next year and pound Williams this year.

I would even go so far to say Williams could be a decent fantasy RB if only the Fins passing game could ever get them a first down. I suspect Pennington will get sacked a lot.

 
I see this as full blown RBBC, with Williams getting mroe goal-line touches. I could see Ricky actually winning the starting job outright too, if Brown is slow to recover. The season is lost, so put Brown on IR until next year and pound Williams this year.
Dude, panic much? :lmao:
 
I never really look at the Huddle, but I gotta agree with them on this one and I feel like I follow Miami very closely...

I'd slot them both at around RB30. Which means, obviously that all of the value is with Ricky right now.

Miami's O-line should be improved this year and the passing game will be below-average. I think Miami will game-plan to run and run often, but once they get behind in games, that may be tough to stick to.

I think absolute best-case scenario is both backs get 900-950 yards and ~6 TDs each

That's what I'm hoping for anyways..

I really think the coaches are planning on using both backs -- a lot of 2-back sets and when there is 1 back, it will be pretty evenly split...

 
How important do people on this board consider having Ricky as a handcuff if you own Brown?
I own Brown and have no plans to roster Ricky. I see Brown's upside as being much higher than Ricky's. I view Ricky's best case scenario as a 50/50 split on rushing and 40/60 on receiving. Brown could easily get 2/3 of both, even from the beginning. There have been lots of people saying they think Brown will be held back at the start of the season and slowly given more of the load as the season goes on. That theory made a lot of sense in April but doesn't make any sense now. Since they haven't held him back in training camp, I don't see why they would hold him back once the season starts.

There's also a lot of discussion about the 'value' Ricky provides at RB45. If he performs as RB35, where's the value? Can he really help you when you're starting the 35th ranked RB? I'd much rather draft Brown at RB17 who's upside may be 8-12. That 'value' is worth much more.
Wow. This is the best refutation of the "value" arguments I see on this board. This is really all that needs to be said. If you are in a 12-team league that starts 2 RBs, nothing outside of RB24 is going to help you even stay competitive, and nothing outside of RB12 is really going to help you win.This is a bit off-topic, but has anyone seen the movie Let it Ride, specifically the scene where he goes around the track asking everyone who they like? This thread made me think of that scene.

ETA: This from the AC

From a physical therapist and Miami Dolphins lifelong fan.....Brown blew out his knee in week 7 and for a RB to come back from that especially early is a good sign, but most often RB's don't trust the knee for a while. The graft itself will take about 12-14 months to get its full strength. Most RB's that come back after ACL tears will not have the feel in their knees for cuts and such until the second year or so. I think it will be more of a RBBC in Miami this year, as Brown will not get the amount of touches he did last year, especially with a QB that can now throw the ball, unlike last year. I would steer clear of him this year, not worth a spot with the other keepers you have this year.

Sounds like the pro-Ricky crowd might be right on this one.

 
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There's also a lot of discussion about the 'value' Ricky provides at RB45. If he performs as RB35, where's the value? Can he really help you when you're starting the 35th ranked RB? I'd much rather draft Brown at RB17 who's upside may be 8-12. That 'value' is worth much more.
Wow. This is the best refutation of the "value" arguments I see on this board. This is really all that needs to be said. If you are in a 12-team league that starts 2 RBs, nothing outside of RB24 is going to help you even stay competitive, and nothing outside of RB12 is really going to help you win.
It depends on how the RB arrives at his end ranking (and your league's scoring system). If it's done by consistent production averaged over the entire course of the season, then you're probably not going to benefit. However, if the production comes concentrated in a few games you may benefit - particularly if you can determine that there is a likelihood of production prior to those games (ie. the guy in front of/next to the given RB is out for the game). That's where the value is. The value is intensified if it happens to coincide with times of need on your own roster (injuries, bye-weeks) or somebody else's roster (trade). The guy doesn't have to produce as a top 12 RB all season long to have value - there's value in him playing like a top 12 RB for a handful of games.
 
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I will always bet against the guy coming back from an ACL this "quickly." Sure, I will be wrong occasionally (Deuce springs to mind) but I don't like the cost of being wrong on this guy. I would much rather draft Ricky in the 9th round than Ronnie in the 3rd (based on their current ADP).
He has said that he has a mental thing going on with his injury. That scares the hell out of me. He's going to favor the knee and wind up messing up the other knee or an ankle or hip....I can't believe he actually had carries in that preseason game. They need to leave that guy on the bench for another 3 months. But as a guy who's had Ricky sitting on a roster for the last 3 years (very deep league) I'm OK with them rushing him back. I don't wish an injury on any player, but I fully expect one here with him actually playing 8 months after the surgery...
 
There's also a lot of discussion about the 'value' Ricky provides at RB45. If he performs as RB35, where's the value? Can he really help you when you're starting the 35th ranked RB? I'd much rather draft Brown at RB17 who's upside may be 8-12. That 'value' is worth much more.
Wow. This is the best refutation of the "value" arguments I see on this board. This is really all that needs to be said. If you are in a 12-team league that starts 2 RBs, nothing outside of RB24 is going to help you even stay competitive, and nothing outside of RB12 is really going to help you win.
It depends on how the RB arrives at his end ranking (and your league's scoring system). If it's done by consistent production averaged over the entire course of the season, then you're probably not going to benefit. However, if the production comes concentrated in a few games you may benefit - particularly if you can determine that there is a likelihood of production prior to those games (ie. the guy in front of/next to the given RB is out for the game). That's where the value is. The value is intensified if it happens to coincide with times of need on your own roster (injuries, bye-weeks). The guy doesn't have to produce as a top 12 RB all season long to have value - there's value in him playing like a top 12 RB for a handful of games.
obviously
 
Meh, I see Brown as a high reward guy. I probably rank him higher than RB15 in keeper/dynasty, but I rank him lower than RB15 in redraft. It wouldn't surprise me if he starts carrying the load after week 6, but by then your team could be 1-5 and on the outside looking in due to the use of a 2nd round pick to take Brown.

 
RB15 seems overly optimistic. Look at all the strikes against him:- Sharing carries with a former Pro Bowl RB- Playing for a new coaching staff- Recovering from a serious knee injury- Inconsistent in the seasons before 2007I would feel uneasy about relying on Ronnie this season.
I think too many people are underestimating the loss of Cam cameron as a HUGE influence on his numbers last year
 
Ricky will have very little FF value this year, IMO (unless Brown gets hurt again, obviously). Ricky will likely get a fair amount of touches early in the season, but not enough to start him. As a Brown owner in dynasty leagues, I'm not going to roster Williams unless I'm really thin at RB. I'd much rather carry a prospect. Pretty much the same with redraft leagues. Unless I'm lacking depth at RB, I'd rather carry a potential starter.

 
Football Jones said:
Ricky will have very little FF value this year, IMO (unless Brown gets hurt again, obviously). Ricky will likely get a fair amount of touches early in the season, but not enough to start him. As a Brown owner in dynasty leagues, I'm not going to roster Williams unless I'm really thin at RB. I'd much rather carry a prospect. Pretty much the same with redraft leagues. Unless I'm lacking depth at RB, I'd rather carry a potential starter.
I'm not planning on starting Ricky till I see him put up 20 touches in the 1st game or until Brown goes down. I'm not lacking in depth. I have him in a start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 flex league. I have Addai, Westbrook and Edge along with TO and Welker (PPR league). He could be a by week fill in but I have a LOT of flexibility in this league. I could bench edge for Crayton week 1 because I think that Dallas will come out and chuck up 5 TD's. I have to see something from Ricky before he gets the start. Only in extremely large leagues is anyone starting Ricky week 1. I was pretty sure that Ricky would be the main guy for the first 6-8 weeks while they eased Brown back into the starting role and then Ricky would have no value down the stretch and in the playoffs (barring injury). But it looks like they are rushing Brown back and now I have to wonder if Ricky will do the exact opposite. Be money down the stretch because Brown gets hurt from rushing back. I'm no doctor but I have never seen anyone be close to 100% 8 months after the surgery. A couple guys have played less than a year out (Jamal Lewis, Edge, Jamal Anderson). All were shells of themselves and one was pretty much out of football the following year.
 
Football Jones said:
Ricky will have very little FF value this year, IMO (unless Brown gets hurt again, obviously). Ricky will likely get a fair amount of touches early in the season, but not enough to start him. As a Brown owner in dynasty leagues, I'm not going to roster Williams unless I'm really thin at RB. I'd much rather carry a prospect. Pretty much the same with redraft leagues. Unless I'm lacking depth at RB, I'd rather carry a potential starter.
I'm not planning on starting Ricky till I see him put up 20 touches in the 1st game or until Brown goes down. I'm not lacking in depth. I have him in a start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 flex league. I have Addai, Westbrook and Edge along with TO and Welker (PPR league). He could be a by week fill in but I have a LOT of flexibility in this league. I could bench edge for Crayton week 1 because I think that Dallas will come out and chuck up 5 TD's. I have to see something from Ricky before he gets the start. Only in extremely large leagues is anyone starting Ricky week 1. I was pretty sure that Ricky would be the main guy for the first 6-8 weeks while they eased Brown back into the starting role and then Ricky would have no value down the stretch and in the playoffs (barring injury). But it looks like they are rushing Brown back and now I have to wonder if Ricky will do the exact opposite. Be money down the stretch because Brown gets hurt from rushing back. I'm no doctor but I have never seen anyone be close to 100% 8 months after the surgery. A couple guys have played less than a year out (Jamal Lewis, Edge, Jamal Anderson). All were shells of themselves and one was pretty much out of football the following year.
I wouldnt become overly commited to the notion that the MIAMI coaching staff is rushing Brown. If you listen to Sparano, he has been crystal clear; Ricky will get more work in the early season than a typical back-up RB (based on his talent level and RB's injury) and the DOlphins will be very commited to the run overall, meaning Brown will get carries too and be eased in, a "take it as they go" approach. They seem to be evaluating the health and readiness of both RBs on a week-to-week basis with the knowledge that Brown should not be rushed as he is the future. So, alll in all, Ricky will see lots of work prior to the early Bye. Does that mean 20 carries when Brown is also playing? I highly doubt it. However, 12-15 touches a game for each is probably a lot more feasible. Maybe 20 for Brown if he has absolutely no negative effects from the injury.
 
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ookook said:
I see this as full blown RBBC, with Williams getting mroe goal-line touches. I could see Ricky actually winning the starting job outright too, if Brown is slow to recover. The season is lost, so put Brown on IR until next year and pound Williams this year. I would even go so far to say Williams could be a decent fantasy RB if only the Fins passing game could ever get them a first down. I suspect Pennington will get sacked a lot.
Brown was a more than decent fantasy RB last year and then Fins had no passing game worth mentioning. Food for thought.
 
ookook said:
I see this as full blown RBBC, with Williams getting mroe goal-line touches. I could see Ricky actually winning the starting job outright too, if Brown is slow to recover. The season is lost, so put Brown on IR until next year and pound Williams this year. I would even go so far to say Williams could be a decent fantasy RB if only the Fins passing game could ever get them a first down. I suspect Pennington will get sacked a lot.
Brown was a more than decent fantasy RB last year and then Fins had no passing game worth mentioning. Food for thought.
On a PPG basis, two guys stood out last year and were eye-popping. Both, funny enough, continue to have strong doubters about whether or not they are studs and will be successful long term. The players?Ronnie Brown and Andre Johnson.
 
The other aspect of this might have to do with trade value and paycheck. If Ricky runs well and garner's enough interest, Miami might make out decently in an off-season trade, and of course on Ricky's end, the better he does, the more his next deal is worth. With Ronnie Brown coming off a pretty serious injury, I could see Miami featuring Ricky for the trade value and to keep Brown healthy.

 
Football Jones said:
Ricky will have very little FF value this year, IMO (unless Brown gets hurt again, obviously). Ricky will likely get a fair amount of touches early in the season, but not enough to start him. As a Brown owner in dynasty leagues, I'm not going to roster Williams unless I'm really thin at RB. I'd much rather carry a prospect. Pretty much the same with redraft leagues. Unless I'm lacking depth at RB, I'd rather carry a potential starter.
I'm not planning on starting Ricky till I see him put up 20 touches in the 1st game or until Brown goes down. I'm not lacking in depth. I have him in a start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 flex league. I have Addai, Westbrook and Edge along with TO and Welker (PPR league). He could be a by week fill in but I have a LOT of flexibility in this league. I could bench edge for Crayton week 1 because I think that Dallas will come out and chuck up 5 TD's. I have to see something from Ricky before he gets the start. Only in extremely large leagues is anyone starting Ricky week 1. I was pretty sure that Ricky would be the main guy for the first 6-8 weeks while they eased Brown back into the starting role and then Ricky would have no value down the stretch and in the playoffs (barring injury). But it looks like they are rushing Brown back and now I have to wonder if Ricky will do the exact opposite. Be money down the stretch because Brown gets hurt from rushing back. I'm no doctor but I have never seen anyone be close to 100% 8 months after the surgery. A couple guys have played less than a year out (Jamal Lewis, Edge, Jamal Anderson). All were shells of themselves and one was pretty much out of football the following year.
I wouldnt become overly commited to the notion that the MIAMI coaching staff is rushing Brown. If you listen to Sparano, he has been crystal clear; Ricky will get more work in the early season than a typical back-up RB (based on his talent level and RB's injury) and the DOlphins will be very commited to the run overall, meaning Brown will get carries too and be eased in, a "take it as they go" approach. They seem to be evaluating the health and readiness of both RBs on a week-to-week basis with the knowledge that Brown should not be rushed as he is the future. So, alll in all, Ricky will see lots of work prior to the early Bye. Does that mean 20 carries when Brown is also playing? I highly doubt it. However, 12-15 touches a game for each is probably a lot more feasible. Maybe 20 for Brown if he has absolutely no negative effects from the injury.
I can see where Brown is rushing himself back and not the coaching staff. But I still think they really need to reign him in though. I guess a very light load in preseason isn't rushing him too much, but I just can't believe he's in full contact situations with another team on the field in a game that doesn't count. Seems foolish to me. And I think that he is coming back to quickly no matter who is pushing it. Something to watch I guess. But history is not on Brown's side...
 
The other aspect of this might have to do with trade value and paycheck. If Ricky runs well and garner's enough interest, Miami might make out decently in an off-season trade, and of course on Ricky's end, the better he does, the more his next deal is worth. With Ronnie Brown coming off a pretty serious injury, I could see Miami featuring Ricky for the trade value and to keep Brown healthy.
But with Ricky's age and baggage, what could they realistically get for him? He would almost have to be moved during the season to a team in a playoff hunt that loses a RB to a season ending injury. I don't see anyone going after him in the offseason....
 
I believe I'm one of the biggest Ricky supporters on this board. The huddle is good to go on this one. The articles I've read along with what I've heard from guys that have seen the Fins this year have said the same thing -- Ricky's been the best player on the field in Fins camp all offseason.

People are too caught up with last year with Ronnie. No doubt he had a good stretch. This has more to do with how good Ricky is than anything negative toward Ronnie Brown. They've got two starting caliber backs & it only makes sense given Ronnie's inability to stay healthy for a full season to use them both to the max.

Whether you believe he can come full circle after a long hiatus or not, we're talking about one of the most physically gifted RB's to ever play this game when his head has been on straight.

 
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I tried to trade Ronnie Brown twice last week in a Keep 8 Keeper. Both were to owners who were weaker at RB than the are at WR (this is pre-supplemental draft). One was even up for Cotchery and the other was even up for Santana Moss. Both owners said "no thank you".

If you have him in a dynasty or deep keeper, he becomes a hold (at least for me after these turm-downs). He would be on my "do not draft before round 5 or 6" list in a re-draft league tho.

 
Not debating, but it is worth pointing out that Ricky went out for the season on his first series last year. They both have injury histories.

 
Everyone is overlooking the Parcells factor here. Williams starts....no question.
How does Parcells have any allegiance either way? Why Ricky? Cause Parcells loves guys who leave football to smoke pot and drink herbal tea?
No, because Parcells likes relics and he has already stated that he thinks Williams "has something". Parcells loves the spotlight....its a bigger "flash".
 
Not debating, but it is worth pointing out that Ricky went out for the season on his first series last year. They both have injury histories.
I was thinking the same thing. Brown has played in 35 of 48 games his 1st 3 years. Ricky played in 38 of 48 his 1st 3 years and 83 of 144 for 9 years. How is Ricky any more reliable?
 
I'm using this site and Huddle. one interesting difference is Ronnie Brown. This site has his projected at RB15 which puts him in the third round and the Huddle has him at 33 behind guys like Fred Taylor, Forte, etc. They obviously feel he's in full blown RBBC territory or not completely healthy. Thoughts?
Not to quibble, but we provide rankings from 15+ staffers. Joe and David have Brown at RB15, but they're much more optimistic on his chances than the consensus staff view, which puts him at RB20. And taking a quick look:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7

The staff's opinions of Ronnie Brown range from RB14 (Pasquino and Baker) to RB33 (Wimer).

If you pull up Ronnie's player page, you'll also see:

*** 5 sets of projections (ranging from 154 fantasy points to 203 fantasy points)

*** His consensus ADP is RB20

*** An FBG user opinion breakdown:

He is good value at his current ADP: 14.8%

His ADP is appropriate: 64.8%

He is not worth drafting at his current ADP: 20.5%

*** A Player Spotlight analysis (by Mike Brown)

*** A Player Faceoff (High Side by Levin, Down Side by Bloom)

*** Why Chris Smith thinks he's undervalued

*** Why Bloom, Brown and Hicks think he's overvalued

That's a HUGE difference than saying "FBG has him at RB15 versus what the Huddle has"...

 
Everyone is overlooking the Parcells factor here. Williams starts....no question.
How does Parcells have any allegiance either way? Why Ricky? Cause Parcells loves guys who leave football to smoke pot and drink herbal tea?
No, because Parcells likes relics and he has already stated that he thinks Williams "has something". Parcells loves the spotlight....its a bigger "flash".
Last time I checked, Parcells wasn't the head coach.
 
Everyone is overlooking the Parcells factor here. Williams starts....no question.
How does Parcells have any allegiance either way? Why Ricky? Cause Parcells loves guys who leave football to smoke pot and drink herbal tea?
No, because Parcells likes relics and he has already stated that he thinks Williams "has something". Parcells loves the spotlight....its a bigger "flash".
Last time I checked, Parcells wasn't the head coach.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain . . .
 

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