Further complicating the situation vs. talent debate when looking at pre-draft/post-draft rankings is that there is no way to define the amount a player rose due to an increase in perceived talent relative to the situation.
Part of the allure of guys like CEH/Sony/Penny after the draft is that they were picked earlier in the draft than anticipated, which caused people to re-evaluate their talent. CEH/Sony/Penny would not have had the same value they did if they were 3rd round picks by KC/NE/Seattle. Teams grabbing them early made people more excited about their talent as well.
Penny is the perfect example. How quickly we forget the buzz around Penny's
TALENT after draft night. Remember Seattle said they would have drafted him even earlier (mid 1st) if they had to, and then there were all the reports that there were other teams were trying to trade up for Penny too, even including the exceedingly rare post draft-pick offer for Penny where another team tried to trade for him after he was picked. Even more crazy is the rumor was that the team that did that was the Browns, who apparently desperately wanted Penny but had to settle for Chubb.
So it's easy to look back now and say "oh yeah clearly the right move was to grab the more talented Chubb over the better situation Penny". But at the time was that really a universal opinion, especially given that even the team that drafted Chubb at the time reportedly heavily preferred Penny to Chubb?
https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/989702462599659521
https://247sports.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/Article/Seahawks-got-trade-offer-for-Rashaad-Penny-could-have-been-Browns-117738099/