Rookie Head Coaches In The Salary Cap Era (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

With all the head coaching turmoil last year and this year, I looked into how well rookie head coaches have fared in the Salaray Cap era (basically since 1994). The following should be a complete list of how all rookie head coaches did in their initial year as a head coach. (If I find time I will compile similar numbers for how established head coaches have done in the same time frame when assuming control of a new team.)

The Saints twice hit home runs with rookie coaches, having both Haslett and Mora both winning 7 more games than their predecessors. I found it odd that only once did a team have the same record with a new coach (DAL 94 with Switzer at the helm).

We could debate why some teams and coached did better or worse (personnel changes, easier schedules, inheriting better or worse teams, etc.). But I wanted to at least post the information to get some dialogue started . . .

Jim Haslett, NO 00, 10-6, 7

Sean Payton, NO 06, 10-6, 7

Jim Mora Jr., ATL 04, 11-5, 6

Eric Mangini, NYJ 06, 10-6, 6

Marvin Lewis, CIN 03, 8-8, 6

John Fox, CAR 02, 7-9, 6

Nick Saban, MIA 05, 9-7, 5

Jim Fassel, NYG 97, 10.5-5.5, 4.5

Chan Gailey, DAL 98, 10-6, 4

Jon Gruden, OAK 98, 8-8, 4

Mike McCarthy, GB 06, 8-8, 4

Butch Davis, CLE 01, 7-9, 4

Gary Kubiak, HOU 06, 6-10, 4

Ray Rhodes, PHI 95, 10-6, 3

Mike Mularkey, BUF 97, 9-7, 3

Mike Riley, SD 99, 8-8, 3

Vince Tobin, ARI 96, 7-9, 3

Rich Brooks, STL 95, 7-9, 3

Gunther Cunningham, KC 99, 9-7, 2

Brian Billick, BAL 99, 8-8, 2

Dennis Erickson, SEA 95, 8-8, 2

Scott Linehan, STL 06, 8-8, 2

**** Jauron, CHI 99, 6-10, 2

Romeo Crennell, CLE 05, 6-10, 2

Andy Reid, PHI 99, 5-11, 2

Mike Nolan, SF 05, 4-12, 2

Steve Mariucci, SF 97, 13-3, 1

Bill Callahan, OAK 02, 11-5, 1

Herm Edwards, NYJ 01, 10-6, 1

Al Groh, NYJ 00, 9-7, 1

Mike Sherman, GB 00, 9-7, 1

June Jones, ATL 94, 7-9, 1

Barry Switzer, DAL 94, 12-4, 0

Mike White, OAK 95, 8-8, -1

Steve Spurrier, WAS 02, 7-9, -1

Tony Dungy, TB 96, 6-10, -1

Jack Del Rio, JAC 03, 5-11, -1

Norv Turner, WAS 94, 3-13, -1

Pete Carroll, NYJ 94, 6-10, -2

Lovie Smith, CHI 04, 5-11, -2

Rod Martinelli, DET 06, 3-13, -2

Mike Martz, STL 00, 10-6, -3

Brad Childress, MIN 06, 6-10, -3

Dave Campo, DAL 00, 5-11, -3

Kevin Gilbride, SD 97, 4-12, -4

Gregg Williams, BUF 01, 3-13, -5

Marty Mornhinweg, DET 01, 2-14, -7

Dom Capers, CAR 95, 7-9

Tom Coughlin, JAC 95, 4-12

Chris Palmer, CLE 99, 2-14

Gary Moeller, DET 00, 4-3

Joe Vitt, STL 05, 4-7

**** LeBeau, CIN 00, 4-9

Jim Bates, MIA 04, 3-4

Terry Robiskie, WAS 00, 1-2

Jeff Fisher, TEN 94, 1-5

Dave McGinnis, ARI 00, 1-8

Mike Tice, MIN 01, 0-1

Overall Record: 384.5-472.5 (.449)

Average Differential (When Applicable): +1.5 Wins

 

[David Yudkin]

SOMEONE should find this worthy enough to at the very least post ONE COMMENT.

 

[msommer]

Loved this one

Mike Martz, STL 00, 10-6, -3

tough crowd.I'm not sure I agree with the Tice listing. He had all of one week to prepare his first game which was a meaningless game at the end of the seaon but I realize that changing hi srecordopens a can of worm (when would Robiskie then be a rookie head coach). Overall though it looks like rookie HCs do decent their first year

 

[Couch Potato]

Call me a skeptic, but I doubt the +1.5 win difference can be attributable to better coaching by rookie coaches. If anything, I'd expect the disruption caused by a new staff and system to cause a lower level of play.

I guess my initial reaction is that I'd expect teams to fare better recordwise in the year of the new hire because a coaching change is generally a result of a poorer than expected won-lost record the previous year, making 'up' more likely than 'down' in the current year. A certain amount of regression to the mean in the current year, injuries/bad luck/etc. in the prior year, plus perhaps infusion of talent from high draft picks (again, resulting from the poor record the prior year) could account for all of the improvement and have nothing to do with coaching.

 

[msommer]

Call me a skeptic,...resulting from the poor record the prior year) could account for all of the improvement and have nothing to do with coaching.

Year 2 and 3 would be important years as well but change in personnel would make this virtually imposible to guage

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Obviously, some coaches are better than others, but I don't think you can accurately compare rookie coaches with each other in this manner. Some coaches start out with a roster that lacks a great amount of talent, while others inherit a well-stocked team.

 

[BGP]

Looks to me like most first year head coaches improve on the record from the prior season. Perhaps in some cases, bad luck resulted in a year that failed to reach expectations for these clubs and the axe fell on the head coach. The talent level was there, and so there was a rebound the following year.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I would say most rookie head coaches in the salary cap era inherit a team that bombed, has an easier schedule, has a high pick, underachieving talent, and a head coach whose shtick had worn thin and there was a lot of tension. New players, new system, new focus, fresh start, players who werent very good before or were branded as backups for whatever reason have a new shot at starting.