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Rudi should be drafted 4th (1 Viewer)

B

buckyben

Footballguy
I wanted to make my case for Rudi as the #4 guy this year. In my opinion, he has very little downside. He is almost a lock to be a top 10 and has a much higher upside than most people believe for the reasons I will outline below.

So, here are 5 things you may not know about Rudi and the Bengals:

1. Rudi was hurt last year. Rudi suffered a knee injury in the first game of last season. The Bengals never really talked about it (though he was usually listed as probable) and he played through the pain. He did not have the same speed he had his first two years. Rudi obviously isn't a burner, but he broke many long runs his first couple years. Last year, he would get to the second level but couldn't accelerate like he could in years past and he had hardly any long runs. He had offseason surgery to correct the problem and he has stated that he really feels like he regained that little burst he had his first two years. He looks faster and those long runs should return.

2. The entire offense returns intact for the 3rd straight season. The Bengals return all 11 starters who will be entering their 3rd year together. In the free agency era, this is almost unheard of. Why is this important? Because they all know the system and know where each other will be. The offense was top 5 last year and should be better this year. Rudi knows where the holes will be.

3. Three of the Bengals starting O-Linemen are in contract years Two guys in particular, Willie Anderson and Eric Steinbach will be looking for huge deals in the free agency market this year. Right tackles and guards get big bucks when the running back they are blocking for has a huge season (Hutchinson got paid the big bucks in large part because Alexander had a monster season). Furthermore, the offensive linemen love Rudi. They have gone out of their way to help him break the Bengals rushing record and celebrated more than he did last year when he broke it.

4. Chris Perry's injury really helps Rudi. Rudi still won't be out there a lot on third down, but the injury to Perry, which could keep him out of significant time could really help Rudi. Why? Perry didn't just steal 3rd down playing time. The Bengals often also gave him multiple series in games where Perry would play an entire drive. That won't happen now. That means even more touches for Rudi. Over the past two years, he has more carries than everyone but Alexander and could get even more. Because he runs with his pads so low, he hardly ever takes hard hits and has never missed time with injury. So he can handle the extra carries.

5. Carson's injury will also help Rudi. This one seems counter-intuitive, so let me explain. Carson will be back to start the year and with Chad, TJ and Chris Henry, Rudi will still not be seeing any 8 man fronts. But, I get the sense from following the team closely that the team really wants to focus more on running the ball this year. Partially to protect Carson a bit. And partially they want to become a bit more of a smashmouth type team and keep the other team off the field. I think the Bengals will still put up 45+ touchdowns, but that less of them will be in the air.

Summary Rudi is the unchallenged starter on one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL. His past 2 years stats are a baseline 1500 yards, 12 TDs. For the reasons, mentioned above, I think he is more likely to go for 1,700 and 15-20 TDs.

Compared to the other top guys. He has had a big season before and is a proven commodity (unlike R. Brown, Caddy, S Jax), he's not injured (Portis), he's not counting on a crappy QB (L. Jordan), he doesn't get TD vultured (Tiki).

Anyway, this is my first post. Agree? Disagree? I have a few more points, but the post is long enough as is.

 
I hope you're right cause I snagged him at no. 9 in my draft last night that has all sorts of escalation bonuses for big yardage and long TDs.

 
You may be right, and I have no illusions about seeing him fall to me at #10, but this is a part-guppie redraft where no fewer than 3 of the twelve owners will bring magazines, so anything is possible. My primary concern with Rudi is the brutal run schedule, especially in the beginning of the season. That, and he just doesn't have enough of a role in Cincy's 3rd down offense. I think even #5 is a bit high.

 
I cannot consider your post until you have an avatar. If it includes wimmen, all the more likely that I will agree with everything you posted.

TIA

 
Excellent post as I have the 4th overall pick in our 10-man league coming up. I'm on the fence on who to take and like to hear from different sources their take on that spot.

 
Would have loved to have nabbed him at 1.08 yesterday -- unfortunately he was chosen right before I got the chance. :(

 
I could see how Tiki would be a strong consideration as a higher pick than Rudi. I think he could easily outgain Rudi when you consider receiving yards (and I would rank him above in PPR), but I think Rudi is a lock for double digit touchdowns and I can't say the same for Tiki.

As for the schedule comment, I was going to address it in my initial post but knew it would come up later.

It is my opinion that the Bengals tougher schedule will actually help Rudi's numbers. If you look back at last year, Rudi had strong performances against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and other tough Ds. The Bengals would get up big and would not pound Rudi as much as I think they will this year. Partially to give Perry experience. Partially because Rudi was hurt. And partially because they were a younger team and did not always make the smart decisions (like in the 2nd Baltimore game when they almost blew a 34-0 lead because they kept passing).

Lastly, I wanted to mention that part of point #5 is gut feeling but part is based upon Marvin Lewis' background. He grew up in Pittsburgh. He coached for the Steelers and Ravens. He will put his talent to the best use, but I get the feeling that deep down he prefers to pound the ball. My feeling is he really tries to get back to that this year.

 
Another quick point. I believe that Rudi will have a big first half in tonight's preseason game (At least 50-75 yards and a TD).

 
I've had Rudi at 1.04 since Portis got hurt. Barber at age 31 is scary. Yes, he's great, but to take him at 1.04 feels like you're behind the curve. Barber has been undervalued for years, and it just seems to me that if it took so long for the market to assess his value, it's highly liekly that the market got there a year too late.

In a non-PPR league, Johnson gives you evreythign Barber gives you, but he's younger, mroe durable,a nd plays behind a better O-line. It's no contest in my book. And with Brandon Jacobs threatning to take more time and goaline carries, I jsut don't ahve any reason to be excited about Tiki, whereas Chris Perry's injuries only make Johnson more valuable.

 
Mr. Pink said:
My primary concern with Rudi is the brutal run schedule, especially in the beginning of the season.
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I was concerned about that also, picking at #6 in a basic redraft. But then I looked closely at Rudi's run at the end of the season last year when the Cincy O was clicking, specifically weeks 9-13:@ Balt - 112 yards, 1 TDbyeColts - 85 yards, 2 TDsBalt - 119 yards, 2 TDs@ Pitt - 103 yards, 2 TDsThe Bengals seemed to lean heavily on Rudi when the games got bigger and tougher.I ended up taking him at #6 after the Big 3, Tiki, and Peyton.
 
My choices at 4th are pretty much, C.Portis/S.Jax/T.Barber/R.Johnson/P.Manning. We don't do PPR and all touchdowns are 4pts.

You make a valid argument for Rudi at four.

 
i still think it was a steal to get Rudi in round 2 of my initial dynasty draft this year

he is in line for a monster year

 
I DID take Rudi at #4 at my draft on Saturday. But the scoring system is TD-heavy and has no PPR. In a league that puts more weight on yardage and/or receptions, I would have taken Tiki at 4.

He had by far the least downside of any RB outside of the Big Three. So I took him based on the "you can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it" theory.

 
I got him at 1.09 of a 12 teamer and Im taking RUDI to the bank. I think he should be picked at 1.05 or even 1.04 in non PPR.

 
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I was shocked he fell to me at 1.10 in our 12-team league last night. Schedule has me worried, but since 2/3 of the league makes the playoffs, I think he'll do well enough. Having Fitz, Wayne, Mason, and Bennett at WR doesn't hurt either. :)

 
drafting tomorrow in a standard scoring league. I'll be gritting my teeth and taking Tiki at #4. I was thrilled when I drew the 4 spot because I would be able to get Portis. Now, not so much. :bag:

 
In PPR scoring, Rudi is not a top 5 pick. He may not even be a top 10 pick.

And while he's touted as a low risk, conservative pick with good upside, the fact of the matter is that he absolutely killed fantasy teams in the first half of the 2005 season with only 2 TD's and only one 100+ YD game.

 
I'm a Rudi owner, and I'm going to the game tonight, which means he's good for at least a broken leg, maybe 2.

 
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Slight hijack -- with Perry on the PUP list, is Watson the best backup to roster or Quincy Wilson?

Anyone have a breakdown?

Thanks.

 
buckyben said:
I could see how Tiki would be a strong consideration as a higher pick than Rudi. I think he could easily outgain Rudi when you consider receiving yards (and I would rank him above in PPR), but I think Rudi is a lock for double digit touchdowns and I can't say the same for Tiki.As for the schedule comment, I was going to address it in my initial post but knew it would come up later.It is my opinion that the Bengals tougher schedule will actually help Rudi's numbers. If you look back at last year, Rudi had strong performances against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and other tough Ds. The Bengals would get up big and would not pound Rudi as much as I think they will this year. Partially to give Perry experience. Partially because Rudi was hurt. And partially because they were a younger team and did not always make the smart decisions (like in the 2nd Baltimore game when they almost blew a 34-0 lead because they kept passing).Lastly, I wanted to mention that part of point #5 is gut feeling but part is based upon Marvin Lewis' background. He grew up in Pittsburgh. He coached for the Steelers and Ravens. He will put his talent to the best use, but I get the feeling that deep down he prefers to pound the ball. My feeling is he really tries to get back to that this year.
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I had the 4th pick in a PPR draft and took Tiki. While everything points to it being the right choice, Jacobs and Tiki's age have me real uneasy. While I agree that maybe Rudi shouldn't be the 4th pick in a PPR draft he may actually be a safer pick than Tiki when it all shakes out.Anyway, you put up solid reasons for your opinion, good post.Willie
 
buckyben said:
1. Rudi was hurt last year. Rudi suffered a knee injury in the first game of last season. The Bengals never really talked about it (though he was usually listed as probable) and he played through the pain. He did not have the same speed he had his first two years. Rudi obviously isn't a burner, but he broke many long runs his first couple years. Last year, he would get to the second level but couldn't accelerate like he could in years past and he had hardly any long runs. He had offseason surgery to correct the problem and he has stated that he really feels like he regained that little burst he had his first two years. He looks faster and those long runs should return.
Click to expand...
not so sure about that... i saw a link on here the other day (will edit it in in a sec) that ranked Rudi just behind LJ when it came to "big plays"... now how they defined that i didn't actually see.... but the conversation it was posted in was talking about long runshttp://sports.iwon.com/nfl/stats/league/bigplayrushes.html

after looking at the link again....i still don't how how they define "big play"

 
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First of all, I think drafting #4 is a tough spot. #1,2,&3 are tiers on their own. Now who's next? Of all the RB's I give the edge to Rudi over Tiki, especially in TD heavy leagues. You can't go WR yet, and Peyton is a reach. I would love to get Rudi somewhere in the #8, 9, 10, or even at my spot #11. That's the difference some are getting Rudi at #4 and some as high as #10. No guarantees with the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks.

I think Rudi has upside and Tiki scores less TD's.

 
I think that Rudi is a "safe" pick to make since he's going to get the bulk of the carries and pretty much all of the goal line work this season. Barber very well may lose more carries to Jacobs, and obviously loses goal line carries to him.

Still, I'd take Barber at #4 in most formats. I had the #5 pick in my 12 team league last week and took S.Jackson after debating it for a long time. Then I ended up going high risk at other RB spots (Foster, M.Bell, A.Green) so I was able to trade with the guy who picked behind me, who wanted Jackson more than Johnson. Essentially, I changed my mind a week after the draft. The motivation was that Johnson is a "safer" pick and I needed more stability.

I like Johnson a lot, and he does have more upside than some believe. Assuming health, he's a virtual lock for 1,200+ yards and double digit TD's. But if the Cincy offense continues to click with Palmer staying healthy, he could be a 15+ TD guy.

 
Good post Buckyben. You made a point in the header and backed it up with solid info. I love Rudi but I pick at 9 in a 12 team redraft. I doubt he'll be there but if he is he's mine. My draft is today. Good Luck everyone.

 
Drafting tomorrow at 4 and will be going Rudi assuming the big three go in order. Non PPR leagues it becomes a lot easier. The Bengals should be competing in every game, and most likely with the lead in most. Sounds like a recipe for running the ball and geting Rudi very solid numbers. You may not win your league in the first rond, but you do anchor it with strong player. If I can get top 10 numbers from my #4 pick, I came out of the round a winner. I can only see an injury keeping him out of that spot.

 
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Got him at 2.08 in a redraft local league, pair him with T. Barber from the first and not too bad of a 1-2 punch :)

 
I have to disagree you with on putting his ceiling at 1700 and 15-20 TDs. Watching him play, there's no doubt he has talent. But he has a tendency to have clunker games where he'll get 25 carries for 85 yards and no TDs. He's a good RB but he just doesn't have the talent that the top guys have (SAlex, LJ, Tiki, LDT, Portis, Jackson).

Don't get me wrong, he's a great RB with 1500 and 10 being a lock this year, but I'd put his upside at about 1600 and 14. He's very good, just not good enough to make it to the next level IMO.

 
Good information here. I have a trade offer proposed to me that would take my LJ for Rudi and Torry Holt (taken at 1.12 and 2.01 respectively). After reading this, I think I may have to do it.

 
I made a post that got moved to the Asst forum that stated that I was considering Ronnie Brown at #4. I am considering Rudi also.

He has the potential to out score both Tiki and Rudi. Even in PPR where RB will be getting receptions also. With no vulture and a primed to win team, young stud Ronnie seems like a solid pick.

I also think that the projected average points per game in this the second tier is not enough to say one is much better than the other.

So go with your Gut

 
In a non-PPR league I believe Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson are the safest picks you can make and I place Rudi firmly at #4. But, I don't play in non-PPR leagues so that does me no good.

I think in PPR leagues you still have to put Tiki solidly above Rudi. If you look at Tiki's worst fantasy year over his last 5 years, a year he only scored 2 TD's, he still scored the 15 and 1/2 points that Rudi give you in PPR leagues.

 
I'm drafting Tuesday at #4 and have never waffled more on a decision in my life!

At first blush it was an auto-pilot Tiki call..... then I made the Peyton Manning "play it safe" (6pts per TD) choice.....I'm currently ping-ponged to the Ronnie Brown "upside" camp.....truthfully, Rudi never entered my thought process until now.

Doomed, doomed I say to two more days of indigestion....god I love this hobby! :D

 
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