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Running Back Rule of Thumb, Redux (1 Viewer)

freshly_shorn

Footballguy
Some old-timers here may remember an article I wrote as a guest for FBG back in 2007, Examining the Running Back Rule of Thumb, essentially studying the wisdom of avoiding 30+ old RBs.

I've continued the study over the years and it has a home on my blog. I've expanded the concept to QBs and WRs, but here is the snippet covering RBs. You can check out the rest if you like Draftologist.com (no ads, not selling anything, just my blog).

<snip>

The 30 year old RB is certainly one to avoid. Even more compelling is avoiding a RB that has 6 years of experience behind him. The sweet spot (vets) for RBs is one aged 24-27 entering his 2nd-6th year. You’ll see 12 or 13 of them in the top 24. Outside of that, you can add in slightly riskier younger RBs (pups)- 21-23, but stay with 6 years of experience and under- that nets you an amazing 20-21 RBs out of the Top 24. In other words, don’t waste an early pick on a 30+ year old (greys) RB or on one entering his 7th year. That has bust written all over it.

This year’s Dog Day Tiers:

PUPS (8 – 9 expected): We may see a step back in the pup category this season as many good, young RBs enter their prime years. But the pups with the best shot at a Top24 season this year are Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Roy Helu, Stevan Ridley & Mark Ingram.

VETS (12-13 expected): The ranks of the prime-years RBs really swells this season. The ones with the best shot at Top24 seasons are Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Amhad Bradshaw & Beanie Wells. A riskier guy that may sneak in is Adrian Peterson (knee).

GREYS (3-4 expected): There are several greys that have good shot at a Top24 season this year on paper, but I think Steven Jackson & Darren Sproles have the best chance of all. I’m leery of Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Frank Gore and Reggie Bush, but they do have a shot to stay in the top ranks, too. Not to mention Maurice-Jones Drew, if he reports or gets traded, but the jury is out on him right now.

 

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