Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I decided to take a look into this, to see if teams can be good at home against the run, then hit the road and become matadors (or vice versa). I used the following site and here are the results.
http://www.ffauthority.com/modules/smartse...d=65&page=2
Miami, playing at home, is the hardest to run against (9.75). San Fran, playing at home, is the easiest to run against (30.12). The top 10 teams with the biggest disparity between home and away are:
JAX - 9.85 - average at home (23.71), great on the road (13.86)
ARI - 9.83 - bad at home (27.12), good on the road (17.29)
TB - 9.41 - bad at home (26.12), good on the road (16.71)
CIN - 9.13 - average at home (18.75), bad on the road (27.88)
DAL - 9.00 - average at home (20.14), very bad on the road (29.14)
OAK - 7.95 - very bad at home (28.57), average on the road (20.62)
NE - 7.38 - average at home (20.00), great on the road (12.62)
SF - 7.12 - very bad at home (30.12), average on the road (23.00)
NYG - 7.08 - average at home (19.67), bad on the road (26.75)
MIA - 6.25 - great at home (9.75), good on the road (16.00)
As a sample, I checked stats from last year to try to justify the disparities for these teams. I chose JAX as the team, because they have the biggest disparity. JAX gave up 678 yards on 208 carries (3.3YPC) and 6 TD's at home. They gave up 782 yards on 212 carries (3.7YPC) and 8 TD's on the road. These numbers suggest JAX was better at home, but that's not what is listed above. I thought the difference was because the people who came up with these numbers were factoring in the talent of the teams that they faced. At home they faced JJ/MB3, FWP, Leon Washington, Tiki, and Maroney/Dillon. On the road they faced Portis/Betts, Westbrook, McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and LJ. They faced IND, TEN, and HOU both home and away, so they can be excluded. I think it's pretty clear the tougher competition was faced on the road, and this somewhat justifies their numbers, but not to the extent that the site suggests. I think the difference in talent vs YPC given up actually cancel each other out, making JAX's run D pretty equal home and away. In this case, the numbers do not support the site's claim.
The top 10 teams with the smallest disparity between home and away are:
STL - .38 - bad at home (25.38), a bit better on the road (25.00)
BAL - .57 - great at home (10.71), even greater on the road (10.14)
SEA - .74 - average at home (23.14), a bit worse on the road (23.88)
CHI - .75 - good at home (18.75), a bit better on the road (18.00)
PIT - 1.07 - very good at home (13.50), a bit worse on the road (14.57)
NO - 1.21 - average at home (22.50), a bit better on the road (21.29)
DEN - 1.24 - bad at home (25.62), a bit worse on the road (26.86)
TEN - 1.25 - bad at home (26.00), a bit better on the road (24.75)
IND - 1.72 - average at home (21.71), a bit worse on the road (23.43)
NYJ - 1.79 - average at home (23.50), a bit better on the road (21.71)
As another sample, I checked stats from last year to try to justify the lack of disparity for these teams. I chose STL as the team, because they have the smallest disparity. STL gave up 1221 yards on 246 carries (5.0YPC) and 13 TD's at home. They gave up 1106 yards on 231 carries (4.8YPC) and 8 TD's on the road. These numbers suggest STL was better on the road, and that's what is listed above. At home they faced Tatum/Mike Bell, KJ, LJ, TJ/Benson, and Betts. On the road they faced Herron/Morency, LT, DeAngelo/DeShaun, Fargas, and Chester Taylor. They faced ARI, SEA, and SF both home and away, so they can be excluded. I think it's pretty clear the tougher competition was faced at home, and this somewhat justifies the increase in YPC at home. I think the difference in talent vs YPC given up actually cancel each other out, making STL's run D pretty equal home and away. In this case, the numbers support the site's claim.
The top 10 teams (combined home and away) are:
BAL - 20.85
MIA - 25.75
PIT - 28.07
SD - 29.76
NE - 32.62
CHI - 36.75
MIN - 36.75
JAC - 37.57
ATL - 38.12
CAR - 39.12
Decent list, but MIN should be higher, having given up only 2.8YPC in 2006.
The bottom 10 teams (combined home and away) are:
SF - 53.12
DEN - 52.48
TEN - 50.75
HOU - 50.62
STL - 50.38
GB - 49.63
BUF - 49.57
DAL - 49.28
OAK - 49.19
SEA - 47.02
Terrible list. No way in hell DEN is the 2nd worst run D. Leaving IND off this list is pitiful.
What does all this mean? To me it says take these numbers with a grain of salt, as it is only one site's opinion. After all, they have IND as the better run D than DEN. I would be interested if anyone has found any other sites that rate rushing defenses broken down by home and away, as I really can't make heads or tails of this one. Please provide links if you have them, thanx.
http://www.ffauthority.com/modules/smartse...d=65&page=2
Miami, playing at home, is the hardest to run against (9.75). San Fran, playing at home, is the easiest to run against (30.12). The top 10 teams with the biggest disparity between home and away are:
JAX - 9.85 - average at home (23.71), great on the road (13.86)
ARI - 9.83 - bad at home (27.12), good on the road (17.29)
TB - 9.41 - bad at home (26.12), good on the road (16.71)
CIN - 9.13 - average at home (18.75), bad on the road (27.88)
DAL - 9.00 - average at home (20.14), very bad on the road (29.14)
OAK - 7.95 - very bad at home (28.57), average on the road (20.62)
NE - 7.38 - average at home (20.00), great on the road (12.62)
SF - 7.12 - very bad at home (30.12), average on the road (23.00)
NYG - 7.08 - average at home (19.67), bad on the road (26.75)
MIA - 6.25 - great at home (9.75), good on the road (16.00)
As a sample, I checked stats from last year to try to justify the disparities for these teams. I chose JAX as the team, because they have the biggest disparity. JAX gave up 678 yards on 208 carries (3.3YPC) and 6 TD's at home. They gave up 782 yards on 212 carries (3.7YPC) and 8 TD's on the road. These numbers suggest JAX was better at home, but that's not what is listed above. I thought the difference was because the people who came up with these numbers were factoring in the talent of the teams that they faced. At home they faced JJ/MB3, FWP, Leon Washington, Tiki, and Maroney/Dillon. On the road they faced Portis/Betts, Westbrook, McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and LJ. They faced IND, TEN, and HOU both home and away, so they can be excluded. I think it's pretty clear the tougher competition was faced on the road, and this somewhat justifies their numbers, but not to the extent that the site suggests. I think the difference in talent vs YPC given up actually cancel each other out, making JAX's run D pretty equal home and away. In this case, the numbers do not support the site's claim.
The top 10 teams with the smallest disparity between home and away are:
STL - .38 - bad at home (25.38), a bit better on the road (25.00)
BAL - .57 - great at home (10.71), even greater on the road (10.14)
SEA - .74 - average at home (23.14), a bit worse on the road (23.88)
CHI - .75 - good at home (18.75), a bit better on the road (18.00)
PIT - 1.07 - very good at home (13.50), a bit worse on the road (14.57)
NO - 1.21 - average at home (22.50), a bit better on the road (21.29)
DEN - 1.24 - bad at home (25.62), a bit worse on the road (26.86)
TEN - 1.25 - bad at home (26.00), a bit better on the road (24.75)
IND - 1.72 - average at home (21.71), a bit worse on the road (23.43)
NYJ - 1.79 - average at home (23.50), a bit better on the road (21.71)
As another sample, I checked stats from last year to try to justify the lack of disparity for these teams. I chose STL as the team, because they have the smallest disparity. STL gave up 1221 yards on 246 carries (5.0YPC) and 13 TD's at home. They gave up 1106 yards on 231 carries (4.8YPC) and 8 TD's on the road. These numbers suggest STL was better on the road, and that's what is listed above. At home they faced Tatum/Mike Bell, KJ, LJ, TJ/Benson, and Betts. On the road they faced Herron/Morency, LT, DeAngelo/DeShaun, Fargas, and Chester Taylor. They faced ARI, SEA, and SF both home and away, so they can be excluded. I think it's pretty clear the tougher competition was faced at home, and this somewhat justifies the increase in YPC at home. I think the difference in talent vs YPC given up actually cancel each other out, making STL's run D pretty equal home and away. In this case, the numbers support the site's claim.
The top 10 teams (combined home and away) are:
BAL - 20.85
MIA - 25.75
PIT - 28.07
SD - 29.76
NE - 32.62
CHI - 36.75
MIN - 36.75
JAC - 37.57
ATL - 38.12
CAR - 39.12
Decent list, but MIN should be higher, having given up only 2.8YPC in 2006.
The bottom 10 teams (combined home and away) are:
SF - 53.12
DEN - 52.48
TEN - 50.75
HOU - 50.62
STL - 50.38
GB - 49.63
BUF - 49.57
DAL - 49.28
OAK - 49.19
SEA - 47.02
Terrible list. No way in hell DEN is the 2nd worst run D. Leaving IND off this list is pitiful.
What does all this mean? To me it says take these numbers with a grain of salt, as it is only one site's opinion. After all, they have IND as the better run D than DEN. I would be interested if anyone has found any other sites that rate rushing defenses broken down by home and away, as I really can't make heads or tails of this one. Please provide links if you have them, thanx.
