S Smith without Dehomme (1 Viewer)

[Newslang]

If Carr starts what kind of numbers does Smith put up?

 

[Sweet Love]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

 

[BlackHole]

I'd start him.

 

[TheGreatest]

Steve Smith is going to get targeted more I believe with Carr in lineup. Carr will look to him early and often. I still have him right where he was with Delhomme though. Might not be as consistent as Delhomme was with him but he will be targeted more I think therefore things should equal out.

 

[MDSkinner]

I'd start him.

 

[Wu-banger]

Carr will look to Smith early and often .

I think that the Colberts, Carters, Jarretts will suffer more being he will be locked on to Smith and not have the confidence in the others.

 

[FavreCo]

Obviously you start him but for an idea of the dropoff you will experience. Check out AJ's numbers with Schaub and try and find anything comparable when Carr was the QB. Note the decline in stats other than 50000 dumpoff passes Johnson received last year. It's going to be all up to Smith's ability to make yards after a 3 yard dumpoff catch. Forget anything resembling a deep pass.

Heck, I may start DeAngelo Williams because the #1 benefactor of a David Carr offense is the RB catching Mr. Dumpoffs favorite play. He may be able to get Foster killed in the 1st half.

 

[SigEp316]

Obviously you start him but for an idea of the dropoff you will experience. Check out AJ's numbers with Schaub and try and find anything comparable when Carr was the QB. Note the decline in stats other than 50000 dumpoff passes Johnson received last year. It's going to be all up to Smith's ability to make yards after a 3 yard dumpoff catch. Forget anything resembling a deep pass.

I agree with the dump offs, also look for Foster/Dwill's receptions to bump up a little bit.

 

[Gr00vus]

Steve Smith is going to get targeted more I believe with Carr in lineup.

Is that really possible? More?If Carr is in I'm starting the Buc's defense. Should be plenty of sacks and ints to go round.

 

[Restricted]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

 

[Steven Mann]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Carr doesn't really throw it deep that thats where Jake and Smith make a living... Lets Hope Smith can take a 5 yarder and take it for 60 and a score...(fingers crossed)

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Yeah but the throws that used to land near Johnson's feet will be good throws right to Smith's knee area.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so farSmith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

 

[Steven Mann]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so farSmith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

Nice

 

[FavreCo]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Yeah but the throws that used to land near Johnson's feet will be good throws right to Smith's knee area.

The bright side for Smith owners.And yes, start the TB defense with confidence.

 

[Angrymutt]

Smith without Dehomme would be "Dehommeless"

 

[packersfan]

I think Delhomme is better than mediocre but even if that's all he is than it's scary to think what Carr is given how Carr isn't close to being the QB Delhomme is in my opinion.

Obviously you start him but for an idea of the dropoff you will experience. Check out AJ's numbers with Schaub and try and find anything comparable when Carr was the QB. Note the decline in stats other than 50000 dumpoff passes Johnson received last year. It's going to be all up to Smith's ability to make yards after a 3 yard dumpoff catch. Forget anything resembling a deep pass.

I posted this same thing in another Smith thread today. Delhomme and Smith make a living beating defenses downfield. Carr doesn't have Delhomme's ability to get the ball downfield nor his moxie so for Smith to do any damage he's going to have to catch a lot of intermediate passes and make plays after the catch. The good news is Smith is very good at doing this but the pressure will really be on him to do it even more now. I think Smith's receptions will stay the same as they would be under Delhomme but I expect a slight decrease in yardage and a possible big decrease in TDs. Carr isn't exactly the type of QB who's known for getting his team into the end zone.

 

[kensat30]

I think virtually everyone in this thread is underestimating how bad David Carr is. The entire Carolina passing game goes in the toilet as soon as this guy steps onto the field. The greatness of Steve Smith is the only thing Carr can hope for, but even Smithy can't catch an underthrown ball into double coverage all the time. And even Smithy can't break 3 tackles everytime before he gets to the first down marker.

 

[FavreCo]

I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

Well it's like going from say a Ford Taurus to a beat up used puke yellow Yugo. Is that a 25 % dropoff or worse? You decide.

 

[FavreCo]

I think virtually everyone in this thread is underestimating how bad David Carr is. The entire Carolina passing game goes in the toilet as soon as this guy steps onto the field. The greatness of Steve Smith is the only thing Carr can hope for, but even Smithy can't catch an underthrown ball into double coverage all the time. And even Smithy can't break 3 tackles everytime before he gets to the first down marker.

I'm not. You got it straight. You see the impending disaster.

 

[packersfan]

Smith is Top 5 with Delhomme in my opinion. Without Delhomme he falls to the 8-10 range. Not a huge decline but certainly enough that you'll notice it. I've lowered my expectations for Smith for this week with Carr as the starter. As I posted in another thread the best thing that could happen for Smith is for Delhomme to recover quickly.

 

[Baron Samedi]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Yeah but the throws that used to land near Johnson's feet will be good throws right to Smith's knee area.

 

[Gr00vus]

I think virtually everyone in this thread is underestimating how bad David Carr is. The entire Carolina passing game goes in the toilet as soon as this guy steps onto the field. The greatness of Steve Smith is the only thing Carr can hope for, but even Smithy can't catch an underthrown ball into double coverage all the time. And even Smithy can't break 3 tackles everytime before he gets to the first down marker.

I'm not. You got it straight. You see the impending disaster.

I prefer to see it as an opportunity for those of us with the Bucs defense.

 

[TheFanatic]

Carr will look to Smith early and often .

I think that the Colberts, Carters, Jarretts will suffer more being he will be locked on to Smith and not have the confidence in the others.

By suffer do you mean actually play in a game? Since he has never been on the field in a regular season game for a single snap, I can't see how his numbers could suffer any more...

 

[cbrepresent]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Yeah but the throws that used to land near Johnson's feet will be good throws right to Smith's knee area.

Is Smith now running on stubs or does he have short feet?

 

[hellz_fireflies]

The only thing that scares me is A. Johnson is 6'3" and S. Smith is 5'9" and Carr may overthrow Smith frequently from years with a taller goto receiver.

Throwing the ball over the DT line for 35-40 yards I don't think those inches will matter.

 

[Pigskins]

"Sep 27 As he's prone to do from time to time, Smith chose not to speak to reporters after practice on Thursday, and told one reporter he's done talking for the year, the Gaston Gazette reports.

Recommendation: Smith is a high-energy player who plays angry much of the time, and he's apparently pretty ticked off about something right now. He seems to play better with a chip on his shoulder, which would be bad news for the Buccaneers this weekend."

I would start him without an inch of doubt even if Grossman was throwing to him.

 

[SteveInChicago]

"Sep 27 As he's prone to do from time to time, Smith chose not to speak to reporters after practice on Thursday, and told one reporter he's done talking for the year, the Gaston Gazette reports.

Recommendation: Smith is a high-energy player who plays angry much of the time, and he's apparently pretty ticked off about something right now. He seems to play better with a chip on his shoulder, which would be bad news for the Buccaneers this weekend."

I would start him without an inch of doubt even if Grossman was throwing the ball toward his general vicinity while he's in triple-coverage.

Fixed.

 

[uncleleo]

Carr is better Chris Weinke... Infact I may be better than Chris Weinke

 

[Ozymandias]

The problem is, can Carr find Smith while lying on his back? He will be waiting for Smith to make his 17th cut.

 

[Gopher State]

The TE King will be the value play with Carr, lots of short passes to the TE. I would guess move Smith looks down by about 30 percent, depends how much Carr gets sacked when he is looking to go long.

 

[dmac37]

The TE King will be the value play with Carr, lots of short passes to the TE. I would guess move Smith looks down by about 30 percent, depends how much Carr gets sacked when he is looking to go long.

 

[dparker713]

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so farSmith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

With the number of 3 and outs Carr will be responsible for, you could very well see a decrease in the number of offensive plays of the Panthers, leading to fewer attempts.Now, this includes some partial games, but Carr's career ypg is 174.6We have no idea how much Carr will throw to Smith, I wouldnt be surprised to see his targets go up or down.Smith's touches will certainly become less productive. Carr can not throw the ball downfield. Smith is going to need to make all the plays himself with the entire defense infront of him. Now, he's good enough to do that occassionally, but not regularly.

 

[Young 8]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:

-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB

-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg

-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL

-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so far

Smith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:

-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game

-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.

-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.

-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.

I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

ROTFLMAO tell me you are kidding.......

 

[Chunky Soup]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:

-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB

-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg

-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL

-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so far

Smith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:

-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game

-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.

-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.

-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.

I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

ROTFLMAO tell me you are kidding.......

Explain?

 

[Newslang]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:

-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB

-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg

-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL

-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so far

Smith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:

-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game

-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.

-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.

-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.

I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

ROTFLMAO tell me you are kidding.......

Explain?

Delhomme isnt middle of the pack? New to me. I acually think the Bucs Dwill be a good play this if Carr starts, Smith will probally put up an average week.

 

[fsufan]

Carr is better Chris Weinke... Infact I may be better than Chris Weinke

so you could win the heisman?so you could play pro baseball and pro football?

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Carr and Delhomme both seem to lock onto their stud WR, so I do not see all that much off a dropoff on targets. Now, the Carr/Smith rapport has to grow, so while Carr may target smith a lot, he will not hit him as much as Delhomme. I would probably drop your projections for Smith by 25% while Carr is under center.

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:

-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB

-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg

-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL

-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so far

Smith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:

-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game

-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.

-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.

-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.

I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

ROTFLMAO tell me you are kidding.......

Good input. Do you think he's better or worse than middle of the pack? Care to explain why?

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

25% is a steep dropoff. A 25% decrease would mean Smith would be around the 15th WR in the league. I highly, highly, highly doubt this.Let's look at this real simply:-Jake Delhomme is at best a middle of the pack NFL QB-Jake Delhomme is currently throwing for 206 ypg-Steve Smith is getting 9 targets per game, good for 14th in the NFL-Steve Smith is the #5 WR in fantasy so farSmith is putting up big numbers despite having a mediocre QB and not being targeted nearly as much as other top WRs. In order for Smith's production to decrease significantly, one or more of the following would have to happen:-Carolina would not pass as much. Doubtful considering there are only 12 teams that currently pass less than Carolina per game-Carr would have to be significantly less productive than Delhomme. Signficantly less than 206 ypg? Doubtful.-Carr would have to target Smith less than Delhomme. Delhomme doesn't throw enough to Smith as is. Again, doubtful. If anything, Smith's targets may increase because Carr will lean on him more.-Smith would have to start being less productive with his touches. This has nothing to do with the QB and is again, doubtful.I don't see a very compelling argument that Smith's numbers go down under Carr, much less by 25%.

With the number of 3 and outs Carr will be responsible for, you could very well see a decrease in the number of offensive plays of the Panthers, leading to fewer attempts.Now, this includes some partial games, but Carr's career ypg is 174.6We have no idea how much Carr will throw to Smith, I wouldnt be surprised to see his targets go up or down.Smith's touches will certainly become less productive. Carr can not throw the ball downfield. Smith is going to need to make all the plays himself with the entire defense infront of him. Now, he's good enough to do that occassionally, but not regularly.

1) 3 and outs-This is possible. Again, I don't think Delhomme is a world beater and I don't think Carr is the worst QB in the league so I'm not expecting a huge dropoff.2) Carr's ypg-I'm not sure this comes into play here. Carr had some terrible games when he was young and had no O-line and no WR to throw to. It's safe to say that when Carr takes the field Sunday, he'll be surrounded by the most offensive talent he's ever played with so that ypg number is likely to go up.3) Targets-I agree with you on we have no idea how much Carr will throw to Smith. My contention on this was that Delhomme only threw to Smith 9 times a game which is much less than other top WRs. Given how much Smith gets open in a game, I think it's likely that Carr will look his way as much or more than Delhomme. This is speculation of course.4) Carr not able to throw downfield-I don't know that this is entirely accurate. When Carr started his career with Houston he had a terrible OL and got hit and sacked A LOT. I think this caused him to look for his check down option much earlier in the play than he should have because this was in the back of his head. I don't know if he's gotten over this or not but some time away from starting probably couldn't have hurt here.I think #4 is the most valid concern. I'm not necessarily high on Carr here; I'm just not high on Delhomme and I am very high on Smith's abililties.

 

[pizzatyme]

Here is the key to Carr's new-found success...those bright, super white gloves he wears on both hands!

The dude is gonna pass for 200 in the first half and then perform in a Michael Jackson medley at halftime. I can't wait!

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I think virtually everyone in this thread is underestimating how bad David Carr is. The entire Carolina passing game goes in the toilet as soon as this guy steps onto the field. The greatness of Steve Smith is the only thing Carr can hope for, but even Smithy can't catch an underthrown ball into double coverage all the time. And even Smithy can't break 3 tackles everytime before he gets to the first down marker.

I'm not. You got it straight. You see the impending disaster.

I prefer to see it as an opportunity for those of us with the Bucs defense.