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I'm picking with the 9th pick for the second draft in a row. Obviously, it's not a top three player. Do you pick the same player in both drafts and gamble that
the player will produce (or could bomb in both leagues) or spread the risk among two players?
First off, I assume this is an "all things being equal"-type situation - since league scoring and players available must be a factor.
Assuming the above is the case, I believe fully in my projections and research - and as such would pick the same guy. Why would I pick someone I thought would do worse?
I have Portis as a keeper in one 12 team league and kept him as my 3rd round player.
In another 10 team draft, I took him at #11 after S Jackson. (couldn't pass on this combo).
If it's a high quality player, yes do it. The occassional week he lays an egg, you suffer, but there are many more good weeks where you'll be rewarded!
I guess that my concern is more with injury than a complete bust in the projections. All players have some risk of injury.
As far as the projection, in most cases the differences between the players is insignificant (4-10 points for the season). For example, using Dodds' projections
the following players are the ones that are probably going to be available and were in the first draft (with the projected points listed next to the player):
Clinton Portis 214.1
Frank Gore 213.5
Marshawn Lynch 210.1
Larry Johnson 209.3
You may not agree with a particular projection for a player and I'm not interested in arguing that point. Even if you say that Larry Johnson (or any one of the
other players) don't belong on the list, there are still two that are close in value.
Assuming the same scoring and picks ahead of my pick, I'm taking the same guy. 1st picks are often the most thought about picks we take, as it's reasonable to mock the picks ahead of you to project who "should" be available to you, and you've come to your conclusion. Stick with it.
got burned in the past when can't miss prospects were taken in multiple league (Willis, Maroney, etc). They crashed and burned and took all related leagues with them.
Passed on Gore in favor of Portis since I had Gore in another league
The question is "How will this affect my enjoyment if this guy has an extremely bad season?"
There's not a lot of question that if the guy has a season where the pick is worth it, you're fine with it. So you've got to understand that doing this increases the variance of your teams' success taken colelctively. If you're cool with that,fine. I personally don't like to have multiple teams sucking simultaneously, so if I have two guys in the same tier, I would probably mix it up.
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