Franknbeans
Footballguy
Burleson
Moulds
Bruce
Lloyd
Jurevicius
Givens
Moulds
Bruce
Lloyd
Jurevicius
Givens
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Same Tier or Not? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Franknbeans
- Start date
lotsa questions here.. dynasty / redraft? overall talent?
Joe J should be better the first half of the season than the second, with edwards return... loyd is better than the other WRs, but will he have a chance... Burlson, imo may be above the rest, based on future prospects...
Joe J should be better the first half of the season than the second, with edwards return... loyd is better than the other WRs, but will he have a chance... Burlson, imo may be above the rest, based on future prospects...
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
At least one tier higher. Givens one up as well.Moulds, Bruce, Lloyd about even.
Burleson last.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If you have faith in the FBG projections . . .
Burleson 84.8
Moulds 86.7
Bruce 97.1
Lloyd 91.9
Jurevicius 105.4
Givens 95.5
I happen to think Bruce will be the highest scoring of this group . . . but then again they don't ask for my projections.
Burleson 84.8
Moulds 86.7
Bruce 97.1
Lloyd 91.9
Jurevicius 105.4
Givens 95.5
I happen to think Bruce will be the highest scoring of this group . . . but then again they don't ask for my projections.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
I won't. I do happen to agree that overlooking Bruce will be a mistake made by many this year. Let's assume re-draft for the sake of
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Sleeping on Joe J is a mistake (and one I hope many competitors make).He was the #23 WR last year, mostly aided by 10 TDs. Looking beyond that he has averaged over 12 yards a reception (12.5) and has caught 2/3rds of his target for the the last two seasons.Sheesh, what's not to like? He is switching teams and learning a new arrangement, ok, not good. He's got a young and lowly ranked QB, ok not good. He's not often the #1 WR and he is, ok not good. I guess I agree with Bri.The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
In Cleveland, Braylon Edwards is OUT for at least half of the season. Joe J will likely get the majority of WR targets this year. Last season, Cleveland targeted WRs 300 times. Conservatively speaking, I'd say Joe gets 30% of those targets (last year ABryant had 123 targets, 41%, as the #1 WR).
Using that math I have:
Joe J 60-720- ? TDs. Yes TDs are semi-random events, but I'd say 1/2 of last year is reasonable, so give him 5.
That projects Joe for me at 60-750-5.
105 FBG points, 165 PPR points.
The 105 puts him as the #36 WR based on last year's final stats, and I think that the projections have room to go up if Edwards stays out for the balance of the year. Moreover, he will be more productive in your FF regular season, so his PPG is likely to be higher before Thanksgiving.
Lastly, his ADP. How cheap can you get him?
His ADP is rising, from 161 to 146. I'm not surprised. Getting WR36 numbers from the 49th WR selected seems cheap to me.
Been travelling, did I miss a Braylon update? out for 8 weeks? Either way, yes either way I still disagree strongly.You're building on a career year to make your projections and ignoring the rest of his career, or so it seems. If you do that then Sellers projects to have 14 TDs this yearSleeping on Joe J is a mistake (and one I hope many competitors make).He was the #23 WR last year, mostly aided by 10 TDs. Looking beyond that he has averaged over 12 yards a reception (12.5) and has caught 2/3rds of his target for the the last two seasons.Sheesh, what's not to like? He is switching teams and learning a new arrangement, ok, not good. He's got a young and lowly ranked QB, ok not good. He's not often the #1 WR and he is, ok not good. I guess I agree with Bri.The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
In Cleveland, Braylon Edwards is OUT for at least half of the season. Joe J will likely get the majority of WR targets this year. Last season, Cleveland targeted WRs 300 times. Conservatively speaking, I'd say Joe gets 30% of those targets (last year ABryant had 123 targets, 41%, as the #1 WR).
Using that math I have:
Joe J 60-720- ? TDs. Yes TDs are semi-random events, but I'd say 1/2 of last year is reasonable, so give him 5.
That projects Joe for me at 60-750-5.
105 FBG points, 165 PPR points.
The 105 puts him as the #36 WR based on last year's final stats, and I think that the projections have room to go up if Edwards stays out for the balance of the year. Moreover, he will be more productive in your FF regular season, so his PPG is likely to be higher before Thanksgiving.
Lastly, his ADP. How cheap can you get him?
His ADP is rising, from 161 to 146. I'm not surprised. Getting WR36 numbers from the 49th WR selected seems cheap to me.
60 catches, more than he ever has had in a single season
750 yards, more than he ever has had in a single season
from here:
http://www.profootballreference.com/players/JureJo00.htm
guess that his average is 30 catches 400 yards 2 TDs, you're well and above that almost double.
123 targets+ the yards are way too many for him IMO
Frye doesn't pass outside of 10 yards very often. He broke 200 yards once. If JJ gets 123 targets I'll be shocked and that would have to be a ton of short passes OR Romeo actually letting Frye air it out.
IMO if you're gonna match targets from last year(not sure why you would but if...) Winslow should get the most targets so I guess I'd give him Bryant's. The O will go thru Winslow the second that Romeo thinks he can handle it. He is eons better than Aaron Shea was. It's almost like comparing having a TE to not having one.
JJ may start in place of Braylon but, again, it's a different offense with Winslow. Northcutt is reliable and a veteran that's been there. He's probably good for 40-50 catches and 4-500 yards each year. I would give him a smidge more in projections as he's the familiar face.
Then there's "I'm the greatest" Travis Wilson who Romeo has said will play.
IMO At some point, ya gotta revisit it and think "geesh, Frye just doesn't throw enough".
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Bri,I think you misread my statement.Been travelling, did I miss a Braylon update? out for 8 weeks? Either way, yes either way I still disagree strongly.You're building on a career year to make your projections and ignoring the rest of his career, or so it seems. If you do that then Sellers projects to have 14 TDs this yearSleeping on Joe J is a mistake (and one I hope many competitors make).He was the #23 WR last year, mostly aided by 10 TDs. Looking beyond that he has averaged over 12 yards a reception (12.5) and has caught 2/3rds of his target for the the last two seasons.Sheesh, what's not to like? He is switching teams and learning a new arrangement, ok, not good. He's got a young and lowly ranked QB, ok not good. He's not often the #1 WR and he is, ok not good. I guess I agree with Bri.The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
In Cleveland, Braylon Edwards is OUT for at least half of the season. Joe J will likely get the majority of WR targets this year. Last season, Cleveland targeted WRs 300 times. Conservatively speaking, I'd say Joe gets 30% of those targets (last year ABryant had 123 targets, 41%, as the #1 WR).
Using that math I have:
Joe J 60-720- ? TDs. Yes TDs are semi-random events, but I'd say 1/2 of last year is reasonable, so give him 5.
That projects Joe for me at 60-750-5.
105 FBG points, 165 PPR points.
The 105 puts him as the #36 WR based on last year's final stats, and I think that the projections have room to go up if Edwards stays out for the balance of the year. Moreover, he will be more productive in your FF regular season, so his PPG is likely to be higher before Thanksgiving.
Lastly, his ADP. How cheap can you get him?
His ADP is rising, from 161 to 146. I'm not surprised. Getting WR36 numbers from the 49th WR selected seems cheap to me.
60 catches, more than he ever has had in a single season
750 yards, more than he ever has had in a single season
from here:
http://www.profootballreference.com/players/JureJo00.htm
guess that his average is 30 catches 400 yards 2 TDs, you're well and above that almost double.
123 targets+ the yards are way too many for him IMO
Frye doesn't pass outside of 10 yards very often. He broke 200 yards once. If JJ gets 123 targets I'll be shocked and that would have to be a ton of short passes OR Romeo actually letting Frye air it out.
IMO if you're gonna match targets from last year(not sure why you would but if...) Winslow should get the most targets so I guess I'd give him Bryant's. The O will go thru Winslow the second that Romeo thinks he can handle it. He is eons better than Aaron Shea was. It's almost like comparing having a TE to not having one.
JJ may start in place of Braylon but, again, it's a different offense with Winslow. Northcutt is reliable and a veteran that's been there. He's probably good for 40-50 catches and 4-500 yards each year. I would give him a smidge more in projections as he's the familiar face.
Then there's "I'm the greatest" Travis Wilson who Romeo has said will play.
IMO At some point, ya gotta revisit it and think "geesh, Frye just doesn't throw enough".
ABryant had 123 targets out of 300 for the Browns (to WRs) last year.
I don't suggest Joe J gets that many. I said he gets 90. (30% of 300), which I think is slightly conservative based on 41% going to the WR1 for the Browns last year.
That plus 12.5 YPC is what I used for Joe J's projections, with him catching 60 of 90.
you're right I did miss the 90 vs 123, sorry bout that. Still that seems way too high.I can't understand how thisBri,I think you misread my statement.Been travelling, did I miss a Braylon update? out for 8 weeks? Either way, yes either way I still disagree strongly.You're building on a career year to make your projections and ignoring the rest of his career, or so it seems. If you do that then Sellers projects to have 14 TDs this yearSleeping on Joe J is a mistake (and one I hope many competitors make).He was the #23 WR last year, mostly aided by 10 TDs. Looking beyond that he has averaged over 12 yards a reception (12.5) and has caught 2/3rds of his target for the the last two seasons.Sheesh, what's not to like? He is switching teams and learning a new arrangement, ok, not good. He's got a young and lowly ranked QB, ok not good. He's not often the #1 WR and he is, ok not good. I guess I agree with Bri.The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
In Cleveland, Braylon Edwards is OUT for at least half of the season. Joe J will likely get the majority of WR targets this year. Last season, Cleveland targeted WRs 300 times. Conservatively speaking, I'd say Joe gets 30% of those targets (last year ABryant had 123 targets, 41%, as the #1 WR).
Using that math I have:
Joe J 60-720- ? TDs. Yes TDs are semi-random events, but I'd say 1/2 of last year is reasonable, so give him 5.
That projects Joe for me at 60-750-5.
105 FBG points, 165 PPR points.
The 105 puts him as the #36 WR based on last year's final stats, and I think that the projections have room to go up if Edwards stays out for the balance of the year. Moreover, he will be more productive in your FF regular season, so his PPG is likely to be higher before Thanksgiving.
Lastly, his ADP. How cheap can you get him?
His ADP is rising, from 161 to 146. I'm not surprised. Getting WR36 numbers from the 49th WR selected seems cheap to me.
60 catches, more than he ever has had in a single season
750 yards, more than he ever has had in a single season
from here:
http://www.profootballreference.com/players/JureJo00.htm
guess that his average is 30 catches 400 yards 2 TDs, you're well and above that almost double.
123 targets+ the yards are way too many for him IMO
Frye doesn't pass outside of 10 yards very often. He broke 200 yards once. If JJ gets 123 targets I'll be shocked and that would have to be a ton of short passes OR Romeo actually letting Frye air it out.
IMO if you're gonna match targets from last year(not sure why you would but if...) Winslow should get the most targets so I guess I'd give him Bryant's. The O will go thru Winslow the second that Romeo thinks he can handle it. He is eons better than Aaron Shea was. It's almost like comparing having a TE to not having one.
JJ may start in place of Braylon but, again, it's a different offense with Winslow. Northcutt is reliable and a veteran that's been there. He's probably good for 40-50 catches and 4-500 yards each year. I would give him a smidge more in projections as he's the familiar face.
Then there's "I'm the greatest" Travis Wilson who Romeo has said will play.
IMO At some point, ya gotta revisit it and think "geesh, Frye just doesn't throw enough".
ABryant had 123 targets out of 300 for the Browns (to WRs) last year.
I don't suggest Joe J gets that many. I said he gets 90. (30% of 300), which I think is slightly conservative based on 41% going to the WR1 for the Browns last year.
That plus 12.5 YPC is what I used for Joe J's projections, with him catching 60 of 90.
http://www.profootballreference.com/games/FryeCh00.htm#2005
gets anyone excited about a WR he's throwing to especially when you add in a supposed next great TE in Winslow to take away some of the stats. And if Dorsey has to play.....
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
I have Joe J at 52-640-4. You can read my opinion on him in his Player Spotlight on page 1, which would typically end the year as around the #45 WR.
I don't see him being much more than a pedestrian WR like he's been much of his career. The 10 TD last year were a total fluke.
Edwards is likely out until October. If it's the beginning of October, he'll miss 3 games. If it's the end of the month, it could be 8 games. Most of the time, teams rush back players arther than letting them sit and watch, so I'm thinking Edwards will miss 5 games and then come back after the bye week and be mediocre the rest of the year.
In the games Frye started, he was hardly the next Dan Marino. Projecting his stats over a full season, he would have had 3000/13. Without a dramatic improvement, I don't see the Browns lighting it up through the air, and IMO Winslow will be the #1 receiving option (if healthy--which he very well could be banged up again).
I don't see him being much more than a pedestrian WR like he's been much of his career. The 10 TD last year were a total fluke.
Edwards is likely out until October. If it's the beginning of October, he'll miss 3 games. If it's the end of the month, it could be 8 games. Most of the time, teams rush back players arther than letting them sit and watch, so I'm thinking Edwards will miss 5 games and then come back after the bye week and be mediocre the rest of the year.
In the games Frye started, he was hardly the next Dan Marino. Projecting his stats over a full season, he would have had 3000/13. Without a dramatic improvement, I don't see the Browns lighting it up through the air, and IMO Winslow will be the #1 receiving option (if healthy--which he very well could be banged up again).
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
I would put Givens a tier above the others.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'm not saying this is a direct comparison, but consider these two stat lines:Charlie Frye 2005
Eli Manning 2004
Again, Eli went off in year 2. He had a better compliment of receivers than Cleveland has, but I'm just pointing out that a growth curve is possible.
I see Frye somewhere between an extrapolation of 2004 and Eli's stats in 2005.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Even better posting. JJ with all the considerations of a developing QB, a returning stud TE, and Braylon waiting to return makes him a risky propostion. You may see some good early numbers but little after. I hope he is drafted high however so i can get someone of much better production right after and laugh all the way to the bank.Been travelling, did I miss a Braylon update? out for 8 weeks? Either way, yes either way I still disagree strongly.You're building on a career year to make your projections and ignoring the rest of his career, or so it seems. If you do that then Sellers projects to have 14 TDs this yearSleeping on Joe J is a mistake (and one I hope many competitors make).He was the #23 WR last year, mostly aided by 10 TDs. Looking beyond that he has averaged over 12 yards a reception (12.5) and has caught 2/3rds of his target for the the last two seasons.Sheesh, what's not to like? He is switching teams and learning a new arrangement, ok, not good. He's got a young and lowly ranked QB, ok not good. He's not often the #1 WR and he is, ok not good. I guess I agree with Bri.The Jurevicius love at FBGs always makes me
In Cleveland, Braylon Edwards is OUT for at least half of the season. Joe J will likely get the majority of WR targets this year. Last season, Cleveland targeted WRs 300 times. Conservatively speaking, I'd say Joe gets 30% of those targets (last year ABryant had 123 targets, 41%, as the #1 WR).
Using that math I have:
Joe J 60-720- ? TDs. Yes TDs are semi-random events, but I'd say 1/2 of last year is reasonable, so give him 5.
That projects Joe for me at 60-750-5.
105 FBG points, 165 PPR points.
The 105 puts him as the #36 WR based on last year's final stats, and I think that the projections have room to go up if Edwards stays out for the balance of the year. Moreover, he will be more productive in your FF regular season, so his PPG is likely to be higher before Thanksgiving.
Lastly, his ADP. How cheap can you get him?
His ADP is rising, from 161 to 146. I'm not surprised. Getting WR36 numbers from the 49th WR selected seems cheap to me.
60 catches, more than he ever has had in a single season
750 yards, more than he ever has had in a single season
from here:
http://www.profootballreference.com/players/JureJo00.htm
guess that his average is 30 catches 400 yards 2 TDs, you're well and above that almost double.
123 targets+ the yards are way too many for him IMO
Frye doesn't pass outside of 10 yards very often. He broke 200 yards once. If JJ gets 123 targets I'll be shocked and that would have to be a ton of short passes OR Romeo actually letting Frye air it out.
IMO if you're gonna match targets from last year(not sure why you would but if...) Winslow should get the most targets so I guess I'd give him Bryant's. The O will go thru Winslow the second that Romeo thinks he can handle it. He is eons better than Aaron Shea was. It's almost like comparing having a TE to not having one.
JJ may start in place of Braylon but, again, it's a different offense with Winslow. Northcutt is reliable and a veteran that's been there. He's probably good for 40-50 catches and 4-500 yards each year. I would give him a smidge more in projections as he's the familiar face.
Then there's "I'm the greatest" Travis Wilson who Romeo has said will play.
IMO At some point, ya gotta revisit it and think "geesh, Frye just doesn't throw enough".
