Dismattle
Footballguy
yeah my bad OSU locked n loaded eh Think its still something to know for instance Zeke had 230 yds vs. Bama But again my bad My posting in regards to the Giants OLine where incorrect
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Saquon or Ezekiel? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hang Dogs
- Start date
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
No worries, my first post on page one of this thread. I could lay out more but I need need a “legitimate answer” not opinion but answer to that question and comment. I still didn’t believe we’ve seen the best of Zeke.
Tex
I definitely get the criticism/question about some of Barkley's numbers and performances in 2017. There were similar concerns about Leonard Fournette who had pretty bad numbers against top competition (especially Bama) as well.
It's always tough to put some of these college performances in context and the NFL gets it wrong a lot too, overdrafting some guys who were products of excellent systems (LaMichael James) and sometimes underdrafting guys who were less effective due to mediocre offenses (Alvin Kamara).
I've been sold on Barkley since that OSU game but there are other members of the FBG staff who are more skeptical, in large part due to some of his mediocre games last season.
Dismattle
Footballguy
yeah, It does bring out the skeptic in me enough to chuckle for someone to think a Rookie is gonna rival the Elites Earl Campbell is the almost the Only guy I seen which fit the bill Think I was only 95% sure on that LOL
Edit/ Technically my first thought was 99% sure but then I thought that probably is just too cocky or wishful thinking
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I mean he very well could finish as the #1 back in the League but to answer his question specifically.....give me Zeke + 3rd head to head this year. Depending on that 3rd Barkley would probably have to score over 30 ppg and who was the last running back to achieve that?
Tex
Dismattle
Footballguy
Believe its almost safe to say their both closer to Top 10 Olines this Season It could be a case of one injury drawing them closer in ranking (Something which makes the addition of Hernadez appear much brighter) imho Dallas has nothing to compare w/ OBJ Also my belief that the TE position is also a known strength
Dismattle
Footballguy
Dismattle
Footballguy
fwiw I received quite an interest in Zeke post my acquisition Finally had to instruct one guy that I'd probably only make a fair trade for him IF I planned to leave the League Love me some OSU (n' Longhorns) So it's just fun to see em play! Hard for me to place that dot above but dunno if its so knee-jerk a reaction at this point
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
This x100. I think everyone is automatically assuming Barkley is going to finish top 5 at RB. We have no idea how they are going to use him. I can’t remember the last top 10 season that belonged to the Giants backfield. I have absolutely zero faith in Eli moving the ball on a consistent basis. The Giants are still the Giants and will most likely be benind in the 2nd half, which could potentially be a positive since he could get some garbage time dump offs.
I don’t know, I just think the hype is out of control on Barkley. I’m a PSU alum and no doubt the kid has talent but he is being touted as almost a generational talent and I think we just need to tap the brakes a bit. Could he have 3000 APY? He could. I think his range is incredible as far as where he finishes. I can honestly see top 3 or scraping into the top 20. He deserves to have one of the highest ceilings out of any player this year but until I see a few games with him in NYG blue I am gonna withhold judgment.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Obviously the funny 3rd string QB who went HAM was the big story of OSU’s title run but imo Zeke was the real mvp. He embarrassed the best teams in college football. They looked like high school players trying to stop him. Now ofcourse the o-line play and quality players like Michael Thomas helped but Zeke was the engine. In 2 playoff games, he had 486 yards and 6 TDs, averaged 8.5 per rush. I know Barkley is an amazing prospect, especially as a receiver but I don’t think Zeke gets enough credit now for how incredible of a talent he is/was.
Oh and he did all that as an age 19 true sophomore.
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Dismattle
Footballguy
@Hang Dogs are you still following this thread? The wording of your post sounded rather Coach's assistant in nature Fortunate enough for all of us its a rather good question for speculation Sadly its kind of worthless in the sense of really knowing the full potential of Barkley I'd much rather see a proposal for a Stud WR that includes a potential homerun play This is almost trading, to be trading not such a bad thing in of itself but more questions based on the extreme level Think you possibly earned the position to draft Barkley and may want to consider staying put I mean Zeke is plug in play forget totally matchup independent as you can get Do you have links that you can offer which draw into question the potential of Barkley that are possibly providing some influence Grass may be greener but it could be crabgrass infected tooHang Dogs said:
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Zeke all day ... you know what you're getting.
Barkley is unknown - albeit very very great potential
Barkley is unknown - albeit very very great potential
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep and that is what one needs to weigh for themselves because there’s no film or metrics to analyze that will give anyone any insight into whether he will mature or not.
Dismattle
Footballguy
I don't really suspect this factors into the equation very much if at all Zeke's limelight drew the camera on him for probably what a lot of College ball players are guilty Obviously the ex g/f issue is a bit above any accepted norms but as stated its alleged! Think its just a case of Zeke being the smarter safer play while Barkley may have the potential to really grow onto another level of play at the NFL level No rationale for a Zeke owner to gamble any more than potential Barkley owners to risk the opportunity
The only concern should probably be about actual ability's of Barkley which would appear to go against College analysis "experts" and draft pundits It's a tough call though because some numbers are really good Playing with the "Pro's" which Zeke has been gifted with for what some may feel years now could translate to reaching higher levels of play for Barkley
Tau837
Footballguy
As you point out, Elliott's performance to start his career has been elite. How long do you assume he will maintain that? Most of the Zeke discussion so far seems to assume he will continue this performance indefinitely.
This is not true. There are other potential negatives, including future suspension and impact of such a heavy workload (1295 touches in 54 games over past 4 seasons).
The rationale for preferring Barkley over Elliiott is pretty straightforward:
- Barkley is expected/projected to be a tier 1 RB, on par with Gurley and Elliott, with RB1 overall potential, especially in PPR
- Barkley is 2.5 years younger than Elliott
- Elliott has a considerable amount more mileage
- Elliott has had multiple off field problems and is a candidate for future suspension; based upon what we know about Barkley, he isn't
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Which just goes to show how good he was at his peak because that was barely 60% of the fantasy PPG he would one day put up over a 5 year span.
I'm not saying that I would necessarily take Barkley over Zeke, as I think Barkley has warts that people are overlooking, but to say that Barkley's upside is current Zeke is just not true. Barkley's upside is Faulk, and Faulk at his peak >>>>>>> than what Zeke is right now. We're talking 33ppg vs. 21ppg which is an utterly massive difference. Zeke just doesn't have it in him to catch 80+ balls or have 1000+ yards receiving like Barkley does.
Another way to illustrate it is to say that the difference in fantasy points between Faulk at his peak and Zeke right now is the same as the difference between Zeke right now and Theo Riddick. It is a huge chasm.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
In general I have a hard time following your posts but this line is a very good point.
if you are drafting 1.1 are you really Zeke away from being relevant? maybe not. Maybe a couple of years away. By trading for Zeke, by the time the rest of your team is contending maybe Zeke is past his prime or on the downside of his career, and Barkley is peaking.
Something to consider. The team I took over had the 1.1 two years in a row. I gutted it and am planning for making it a 3rd year in a row, then I should take off.
I think the overall health of the roster definitely factors into this decision as well.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
But Indiana and Rutgers' d-lines were not, and he was equally poor against them.
His struggles between the tackles are being overlooked imo, and those are what led to him disappearing in so many college games relative to other generational prospects who almost never did the same (especially not against weak teams like Indiana/Rutgers). Yes the o-line was poor but even in measures that are meant to take the line out of it he graded poorly, and the line didn't grade any more poorly than Fournette or Cook's, both of whom had very significantly better efficiency running between the tackles behind equally poor lines.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
People budget too long for rebuilds in fantasy football. A just turned 23 year old stud workhorse RB is exactly the kind of guy you want to base your rebuild around.
There's no real right answer here. I can't disparage anyone for taking either side of Zeke vs. Barkley. With Barkley you get more upside with a little more youth and no off the field issues. With Zeke you get proven elite production at a slightly older but still very very very young (younger than many rookies) age.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm more thinking of the idea that a RBs average life span in the NFL is 6 years, or I think I saw that somewhere. if Elliot is elite now, how much longer can he keep that up? another 6 or 7 years? maybe, but he has mileage for sure. He's 2 years in already. Barkely is zero.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
All fair points. Full disclosure, I tend to be biased towards "win now" vs. "build a superteam in 2021" so I may weight the age/mileage things less than others. Obviously Zeke won't be elite indefinitely, but I expect he'll be elite for at least a couple of more years which is mostly all I care about. Barkley may continue to be a stud for 2 years after Elliott has fallen off but to me that's something to worry about a few years from now, not in 2018. Plus, the age/mileage concerns only matter if Barkley actually is what he's being projected as - you note that point #1 comes with risk, and I'll note that points 2 and 3 only matter if #1 turns out to be true. Not saying Barkley won't be everything we think he will be, but we don't know that for sure yet. We do know Zeke is an NFL stud.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I would take Barkley over Zeke in PPR. Barkley has potential to be a monster. Zeke is a stud. Make no mistake about that. He is going to continue to be great too. With the trade option on the table, I would take Zeke plus the 3rd over Barkley.
Two other possible causes of concern with Elliot:
1. His yards per carry dropped from 5.1 yards his rookie season to 4.1 yards last year.
2. He caught 32 balls over 15 games as a rookie (2.14/game) and then 26 over 10 games last year (2.6/game). Some of the more elite backs are catching 45 plus balls each year (Gurley 64, Bell 85, Johnson 80 season before he got hurt, etc.). For a true stud #1 in today's game, it would be nice if this number was higher for Elliot. Barkley should be in line to catch quite a few more balls than Elliot this year.
1. His yards per carry dropped from 5.1 yards his rookie season to 4.1 yards last year.
2. He caught 32 balls over 15 games as a rookie (2.14/game) and then 26 over 10 games last year (2.6/game). Some of the more elite backs are catching 45 plus balls each year (Gurley 64, Bell 85, Johnson 80 season before he got hurt, etc.). For a true stud #1 in today's game, it would be nice if this number was higher for Elliot. Barkley should be in line to catch quite a few more balls than Elliot this year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Two points. Firstly, most successful rebuilds I see the teams are ready to contend by year 2 of the rebuild, often year 1 (I don't have enough fingers to count up the number of times a team that was bottom 3 or even bottom 1 in my leagues ended up as a serious contender or even league champ the next year). If someone is still rebuilding 3 years in they are one of those players that are going to be rebuilding perpetually.
Secondly, the average life span thing isn't really a relevant stat for elite RBs imo. It includes a bunch of guys that fizzled out because they just weren't that good that bring down the average. If we ran the study on players that had 3000+ yards in their first two years in the league I bet the average life span would be a good bit longer. And as an aside to that, Zeke was particularly young coming into the league (and especially at the age he broke out in the league). A guy turning 30 in his 6th year in the league isn't the same as a guy turning 26 in his 6th year.
Dismattle
Footballguy
DVOA — Football Outsiders’ proprietary metric is used to quantify how a player performs compared to others at his position and based on game situations (down, distance, score, time) and opponent strength — said Elliott performed 15.9 percent better than the average back would have given the same exact carries.
That number dropped to 11.1 percent in 2017. It’s still good for 11th-best, but a drop from sixth-best the prior year. His success rate remained steady at 57 percent, indicating the big breakaway plays were what was missing from the equation the past season and a major factor in his yards-per-carry drop-off. https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/16/feast-mode-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott-is-ready-to-eat-up-yards-in-2018/
That number dropped to 11.1 percent in 2017. It’s still good for 11th-best, but a drop from sixth-best the prior year. His success rate remained steady at 57 percent, indicating the big breakaway plays were what was missing from the equation the past season and a major factor in his yards-per-carry drop-off. https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/16/feast-mode-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott-is-ready-to-eat-up-yards-in-2018/
Tau837
Footballguy
Your implication seems to be that Elliott is a better win now choice than Barkley. I don't agree with that notion.
Elliott was not at all a "win now" player last season. I owned him in multiple leagues, and his games missed to suspension really hurt those teams. Going forward, I don't think it is a given that Elliott will outscore Barkley this season or any season in their foreseeable futures. And if he does, IMO it will likely be by a small margin.
My objective is to win now and win in future seasons. I view them as both being Tier 1 RBs, but Barkley should be able to sustain elite performance longer, and also IMO carries less risk (due to Elliott's off field issues). Thus, Barkley is my choice.
I realize others are not willing to put their full trust in Barkley as a Tier 1 RB until they have seen him succeed in the NFL. I understand that philosophy, but I don't agree with it.
Football Jones
Footballguy
To me, it’s not close. Zeke has much more value as things stand right now.
We can project what Barkley will do in the NFL, but he hasn’t played a down yet & it’s not like there aren’t warts. For one, I want to see what Barkley can do running inside consistently as opposed to “bouncing” & outrunning defenders like he did in college.
You also have the situational difference, which could be huge. Barkley will be operating behind a sub-par OL & has to deal with a deteriorating QB on the downside of his career. Zeke has an elite OL to work with & a young, franchise-type QB.
In non-PPR, especially, there’s a big difference in their values, IMO. That could potentially change fairly soon or on the other hand, the gap could widen depending on how Barkley performs early on.
We can project what Barkley will do in the NFL, but he hasn’t played a down yet & it’s not like there aren’t warts. For one, I want to see what Barkley can do running inside consistently as opposed to “bouncing” & outrunning defenders like he did in college.
You also have the situational difference, which could be huge. Barkley will be operating behind a sub-par OL & has to deal with a deteriorating QB on the downside of his career. Zeke has an elite OL to work with & a young, franchise-type QB.
In non-PPR, especially, there’s a big difference in their values, IMO. That could potentially change fairly soon or on the other hand, the gap could widen depending on how Barkley performs early on.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
If he can get back to where he was as a rookie, he's the best between the tackles back in the league (and a clear step up from Barkley) imo.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The case for Elliot over Barkley is really simple as well.As you point out, Elliott's performance to start his career has been elite. How long do you assume he will maintain that? Most of the Zeke discussion so far seems to assume he will continue this performance indefinitely.
This is not true. There are other potential negatives, including future suspension and impact of such a heavy workload (1295 touches in 54 games over past 4 seasons).
The rationale for preferring Barkley over Elliiott is pretty straightforward:
#1 comes with risk, because it is a projection at this point. IMO the likely reward is worth that risk, and I traded Elliott for 1.1 straight up in one PPR dynasty league.
- Barkley is expected/projected to be a tier 1 RB, on par with Gurley and Elliott, with RB1 overall potential, especially in PPR
- Barkley is 2.5 years younger than Elliott
- Elliott has a considerable amount more mileage
- Elliott has had multiple off field problems and is a candidate for future suspension; based upon what we know about Barkley, he isn't
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Yep, and I understand your take and don't disagree with it at all. If someone offered me Zeke and a 3rd for 1.1 this year, I think I'd take it, but it's certainly not a no-brainer and totally get why others would go the other way.Your implication seems to be that Elliott is a better win now choice than Barkley. I don't agree with that notion.
Elliott was not at all a "win now" player last season. I owned him in multiple leagues, and his games missed to suspension really hurt those teams. Going forward, I don't think it is a given that Elliott will outscore Barkley this season or any season in their foreseeable futures. And if he does, IMO it will likely be by a small margin.
My objective is to win now and win in future seasons. I view them as both being Tier 1 RBs, but Barkley should be able to sustain elite performance longer, and also IMO carries less risk (due to Elliott's off field issues). Thus, Barkley is my choice.
I realize others are not willing to put their full trust in Barkley as a Tier 1 RB until they have seen him succeed in the NFL. I understand that philosophy, but I don't agree with it.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The real question is what happened to @Hang Dogs? As another poster noted, for what seemed like a straight AC question and got total snark out the gate, some of the posters here turned this into a real smart discussion. Hopefully HD comes back. I want to hear his take on all this talk.
Also since I am surprised how many people would prefer what is behind the mystery door over the known elite commodity, I have a question. Which RB who has already played in the NFL-(could be a vet like McCoy or someone long retired like Earl Campbell)- which NFL RB's career was good enough where you would take it (knowing how it turned out) over taking the uknown future of Barkley? For example, We see what LT did and believe with 0 doubts that we would rather have LT's career than any potential career Barkley may have. We look at what Trent Richardson did and are 100% positive we would take the shot that Barkley is able to outperform him. Which player is the fulcrum on that scale?
Also since I am surprised how many people would prefer what is behind the mystery door over the known elite commodity, I have a question. Which RB who has already played in the NFL-(could be a vet like McCoy or someone long retired like Earl Campbell)- which NFL RB's career was good enough where you would take it (knowing how it turned out) over taking the uknown future of Barkley? For example, We see what LT did and believe with 0 doubts that we would rather have LT's career than any potential career Barkley may have. We look at what Trent Richardson did and are 100% positive we would take the shot that Barkley is able to outperform him. Which player is the fulcrum on that scale?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This feels like a strawman to me.
Barkley is the better athlete, was drafted higher, projects to have a higher PPR ceiling, is younger, didn't come into the season out of shape, and isn't one DV strike away from banishment from the league. I think it's perfectly reasonable to view Barkley as the safer asset, even.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
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One other thing I would like to add hereAs you point out, Elliott's performance to start his career has been elite. How long do you assume he will maintain that? Most of the Zeke discussion so far seems to assume he will continue this performance indefinitely.
This is not true. There are other potential negatives, including future suspension and impact of such a heavy workload (1295 touches in 54 games over past 4 seasons).
The rationale for preferring Barkley over Elliiott is pretty straightforward:
#1 comes with risk, because it is a projection at this point. IMO the likely reward is worth that risk, and I traded Elliott for 1.1 straight up in one PPR dynasty league.
- Barkley is expected/projected to be a tier 1 RB, on par with Gurley and Elliott, with RB1 overall potential, especially in PPR
- Barkley is 2.5 years younger than Elliott
- Elliott has a considerable amount more mileage
- Elliott has had multiple off field problems and is a candidate for future suspension; based upon what we know about Barkley, he isn't
5. Way better supporting cast. I don’t see many 8 men in the box. I see this all the time with Elliott this year. I do see a rebound for Eli.
I luckily own both but give me Barkley. I have had the Gurley owner come after both. He wanted Barkley, Washington and small stuff for Gurley. Turned down. Wanted Elliott, Corey Davis and small stuff on other offer.
Amazing. In this league, owner just got Bell to go with Johndon and Fournette. Question is Elliott, Barkley and Gordon better. I think easy call but one never know around here such as redraft 1.4 pick. With rookies leading lesgue in rushing lately, I am inclined to take Barkley 1.2 in redraft and 1.1 in dynasty.
Tau837
Footballguy
Your implication seems to be that Elliott is a better win now choice than Barkley. I don't agree with that notion.
Elliott was not at all a "win now" player last season. I owned him in multiple leagues, and his games missed to suspension really hurt those teams. Going forward, I don't think it is a given that Elliott will outscore Barkley this season or any season in their foreseeable futures. And if he does, IMO it will likely be by a small margin.
My objective is to win now and win in future seasons. I view them as both being Tier 1 RBs, but Barkley should be able to sustain elite performance longer, and also IMO carries less risk (due to Elliott's off field issues). Thus, Barkley is my choice.
I realize others are not willing to put their full trust in Barkley as a Tier 1 RB until they have seen him succeed in the NFL. I understand that philosophy, but I don't agree with it.
