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Not sure what middle-eastern country would have the capacity to step in for Iran and Saudi Arabia. The middle-east is a mess right now and no single "hostile" country (I don't consider Turkey as hostile) has their act together to become a power player.
BowieMercs said there should be a cage match b/w Saudi Arabia and Iran so we don't end up with a power vacuum. My statement on vacuums is that is Iran and SA knock each other off, there aren't any ME countries which would be able to step into the vacuum and have any material impact. All of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt and Libya (not to mention the other ME countries) have their own issues and do not have the capacity/capability in the near term to become a material power player.
I agree with regard to Russia which is looking for more of a foothold in the ME. Also waiting for China to start sticking their nose in the ME as well.
Gotta love the odd joining of these two very different foreign policy issues in one thread.
Not just a matter of popularity. It is also a matter of political, military and economic support. With oil around $30/bbl, the Saudis can't throw their money around like they used to.
Difficult to see them being primary financial supporters based on there current financial situation, but I could see them trying to impress with their military might.
You said that Russia and China won't be popular in the ME. My position is that while their not being Arab (using the generic term) will limit their effectiveness, they have the capacity to become players in the ME. China through financial backing of parties and Russia with their military (see Syria). With the decline in oil prices, Saudi Arabia will be operating at a deficit in 2016. It is difficult to imagine them providing the financial support to various ME countries that they have in the past. Thus, opening the way for China to fill the "financial" vacuum.
Doing nothing is doing something... unless you couch it as leading from behind
And then Nostradamus' 243rd prognostication becomes reality. When the darkness falls (decline in oil) and the camel calls (Middle East need of financial support) the non-pale man (asian) shall stroke a fire to heat the loins of the thirsting lion. Not sure what he meant by the last part, but its all there in black and white.
Perhaps you think that the outcome of greater Russian and Chinese involvement in the ME is a definitive one. I could see it going a bunch of different ways, some of them not very favorable for our Russian and Chinese friends.
Definitive, no. I agree that if they do try to push/establish an Arab agenda that it can go many ways (including unfavorably). The Russians have had a presence in the ME for a long time. Their involvement however has not been viewed as benefiting their country. With China, its a crap shoot. They haven't shown a great proclivity for expanding outside of Asia.
True, but the economic and political environment has changed quite a bit since then.
I have heard that about China as well - low-level without many men on the ground. I think the U.S.'s involvement in Africa is primarily through the U.N. (exclusive of NW Africa).
Except for all those Special Forces operations we've been running in Central Africa for decades...
- Well, that didn't take long.
The U.S. trains and tries to use African troops to address military needs. I don't think the Special Forces are on the ground fighting it out with Overlords. Looking through articles though, it looks like you are right in that they are more directly involved in training, intelligence gathering, etc. than I thought.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/01/04/Saudi-Iranian-authorities-did-not-stop-protesters-storming-consulate.html
You are giving them too much credit...see their so called "arab spring" recently. Lots of protests.
I'm giving the Iranian government too much credit? I don't think so. The Arab Spring protests took place in countries (Egypt, Tunisia) with nowhere near the institutional control that Iran has, plus as SA points out they have a history of embassy attacks as policy.
Yeah, that was an entirely different group and they didn't burn down any embassies.
They are just propping up dictators. Much easier than trying to establish a democracy. They have already gained quite a lot of international standing with very little investment. Ukraine and the corresponding sanctions are already forgotten.
But we have an agreement in place where Iran won't be able to produce nuclear weapons. Please don't tell me that this agreement isn't worth the paper its written on.
Iran is not the problem here. Saudi Arabia is the problem. (Or at least, the bigger problem.)
Glad you don't need anything other than my word to make up your mind!
