Scott Linehan made the worst coaching decision of the week (1 Viewer)

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

@KnowledgeReignsSupreme: Based on your logic, a coach should never receive praise for a win, nor criticism for a loss, since the players are the ones on the field.

@Ghost RiderI think coaches are like QBs. They unnecessarily take heat when things go wrong and get too much credit when things go right.I didn't see the play in question so I have to make a few assumptions. For starters, I doubt Linehan just said "#### it, tell Marc to throw it to Klopfenwhatever or something I don't care". I'm going to assume they looked at game tape. They practiced this play and were in a situation when they felt it was good to try. Very rarely will I criticize a coach for trying to put the game away. Too many times, coaches go the chicken#### route and call the safe (read: wrong) play that won't get criticized after the game if they lose.You see teams all the time line up in a short yardage package and catch the opposing D completely off guard with a little play action toss to a FB or TE. It works if the players execute.If it works, everyone praises him for seeing something and making an adjustment at the right time and putting the game away. Coach is called a genius.So I'm gonna assume they ran this play in practice and felt comfortable with it. The players knew what to do, how to sell it, and what route to run. It's one play out of about sixty that will be run during a game.Something may have gone wrong with the play, or maybe Seattle was just prepared for it. That's gonna happen on quite a few plays during the game. Of course, since this one involved a FG when the team lost by 2 points, it's gonna be the one play everyone goes back to criticize. Sometimes calling the right play ends up poorly for you.It comes down to execution. Seattle executed better on that play. Seattle executed better than the Rams on the last drive. Seattle won because of superior execution, not a singular play call that happened 15 minutes ago.

 

[CalBear]

Not to mention, you're dealing with long-run averages for hypothetical average teams playing against other hypothetical average teams, with all such teams in point-maximization mode. The chart is obviously only a starting point for your strategy calculations.

Wrong; he's dealing with actual results of actual NFL games. The basis for his research is examination of the results of similar decisions in real NFL situations. Just because the research goes against conventional wisdom doesn't mean conventional wisdom is correct--rather the opposite, in fact. (Do you have any real evidence that going for it on fourth down is not the correct decision?)

 

[j3r3m3y]

Not to mention, you're dealing with long-run averages for hypothetical average teams playing against other hypothetical average teams, with all such teams in point-maximization mode. The chart is obviously only a starting point for your strategy calculations.

Wrong; he's dealing with actual results of actual NFL games. The basis for his research is examination of the results of similar decisions in real NFL situations. Just because the research goes against conventional wisdom doesn't mean conventional wisdom is correct--rather the opposite, in fact. (Do you have any real evidence that going for it on fourth down is not the correct decision?)

Cal is correct. The reason conventional wisdom prevails, usually, is that if the coach goes against "conventional wisdom" and it turns out poorly he is an idiot in the eyes of his employers. If he plays it safe and they still fail, at least he "made the right call". Playing it safe (even if it isnt really the correct call) is how you keep a coaching job in the NFL. Look at Dungy.

 

[Doug Drinen]

In terms of expected value, going for it on fourth in one in this situation is almost certainly better than kicking the field goal. The field goal doesn't help you that much, and even if you fail on fourth down, you still have the lead and Seattle stuck in bad field position with their backup RB and backup QB. Kicking a FG is an anti-percentage move there.

I am a fan of the Romer stuff and am fully on board the "coaches ought to go for it much more often than they currently do" bandwagon. But my instinct tells me that kicking the field goal is the right thing to do in that situation.Going for it might (or might not) have been the +EV decision in terms of point differential, but I doubt it was the +EV decision in terms of win probability. Late in the game, the difference between a 2-point lead and a 5-point lead is pretty significant.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise --- you and MT are both capable of being pretty convincing --- but citing Romer doesn't do it for me in this case.

 

[Native]

In retrospect its easy to say that it was a poor decision. However, at the time, I thought it was a bold move. Linehan wanted to go for the kill. I respect that. Had the Seahwaks scored a TD at the end of the game, everyone would have criticized Linehan for not going for it (had he elected to kick the field goal). Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[redman]

I object.I would like to offer into evidence the Tom Coughlin's decision to kick a 53 yard field goal in Giants Stadium in the wind and rain with a kicker who already missed from 40 against a team that has a dynamite return guy standing in the end zone waiting for the the inevitable.Thank you.

Acknowledging full well the possibility of you being facetious, those two situations would not appear to be comparable.

 

[CalBear]

In terms of expected value, going for it on fourth in one in this situation is almost certainly better than kicking the field goal. The field goal doesn't help you that much, and even if you fail on fourth down, you still have the lead and Seattle stuck in bad field position with their backup RB and backup QB. Kicking a FG is an anti-percentage move there.

I am a fan of the Romer stuff and am fully on board the "coaches ought to go for it much more often than they currently do" bandwagon. But my instinct tells me that kicking the field goal is the right thing to do in that situation.Going for it might (or might not) have been the +EV decision in terms of point differential, but I doubt it was the +EV decision in terms of win probability. Late in the game, the difference between a 2-point lead and a 5-point lead is pretty significant.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise --- you and MT are both capable of being pretty convincing --- but citing Romer doesn't do it for me in this case.

The difference between a 2-point and 5-point lead is less than the difference between a 5-point and 8-point lead. I don't have analysis to back that up, but I think the statement is correct. With an 8-point lead, you can't lose on one score, and even if they get a TD, you still get a chance to stop the 2-point conversion to keep the lead.In absence of research, I'm willing to say that I'm not certain the decision is +EV, but in any case, I think it's a reasonable decision. Aggressive, risky, but not lacking a solid line of reasoning.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

In absence of research, I'm willing to say that I'm not certain the decision is +EV, but in any case, I think it's a reasonable decision. Aggressive, risky, but not lacking a solid line of reasoning.

This is about where I stand also.It's not like he went for an XP down 2 with :00 on the clock. That'd be an indefensible losing move there.

 

[North]

apparently linehan was sleeping when jackson carried half the hawks D into the endzone.. he didnt think he could get that tough yard.

You have to be used to it by now. SJAX gets no respect. If he were on any other team that was COMMITTED to the run he would be a MONSTER. On the rams he is just an above average back b/c they will not use him correctly. If you look at the replay, witht the lead blocker, it looked like SJAX could have crawled into the endzone on 4th down. Instead they go to Cloffenstien?I have been complaining about the play calling all year. It hadn't cost them a game until this week but they should have lost to the Cards, if not for Warner fumbling. They also should have lost one other time but walked away lucky. At least twice this year they have had the lead in the 4th quarter with less than 7 minutes left. If you are the coach what do you do? With a stud like JAX you RUN the ball to kill time and pick up yds (especally when he is averaging 4ypc). What does Lienahan do? Inc. pass, inc. pass, inc. pass, punt. A total of 35 seconds off the clock and the ball goes back to the other team.It's like he found Martz's playbook hidden in the locker room and is calling the same plays. I was happy for the Rams and Jax this year b/c I was told they would be more committed to the run. I thought they would have a chance. SJAX has yet to carry the ball more than 25 times a game!!WAKE UP, WHAT YOUR DOING IS NOT WORKING!!!!

 

[J R]

I have been complaining about the play calling all year. It hadn't cost them a game until this week but they should have lost to the Cards, if not for Warner fumbling. They also should have lost one other time but walked away lucky. At least twice this year they have had the lead in the 4th quarter with less than 7 minutes left. If you are the coach what do you do? With a stud like JAX you RUN the ball to kill time and pick up yds (especally when he is averaging 4ypc). What does Lienahan do? Inc. pass, inc. pass, inc. pass, punt. A total of 35 seconds off the clock and the ball goes back to the other team.It's like he found Martz's playbook hidden in the locker room and is calling the same plays. I was happy for the Rams and Jax this year b/c I was told they would be more committed to the run. I thought they would have a chance. SJAX has yet to carry the ball more than 25 times a game!!WAKE UP, WHAT YOUR DOING IS NOT WORKING!!!!

Just to play devil's advocate...Jackson is 7th in the league in carries, with only 2 guys more than 5 carries ahead of him.The Ram offense ranks 10th in ppg, 8th in ypg, 7th in DVOA.Now, it's true that the Rams have one of the higher pass to rush play ratios in the league, but Jackson is getting about 21 carries per game, along with 5 catches. Perhaps they need another RB to share the load? Considering the trouble Jackson had staying healthy the last 2 years, I'd be hesitant to give him more work than this.And if you really want to talk about the playcalling at the ends of games, in that Cardinals game, the Rams led 16-7 going into the 4th.1st drive: Jackson gets 4 carries in 5 plays before 3rd-9. Should Linehan run it then?2nd drive: Cards had just had a long drive for a TD to pull within 2 with 4 minutes left. At this point, sure you'd like to take time off, but you also have to get 1st downs whichever way is most effective. Jackson gets the first carry for -1 yards. Linehan calls 2 pass plays to pick up the 1st. Then passes on 1st down, and Bulger fumbles.Perhaps Linehan was just passing on 1st down to set up runs for Jackson or to get that last 1st down they need to end the game. Who can say for sure. But it sure looks like Linehan's calling pretty balanced plays, and you're complaining that Jackson should get ALL the plays.This is the point where a poster usually says something like, disgruntled Jackson owner.

 

[billyjoe]

Not to mention, you're dealing with long-run averages for hypothetical average teams playing against other hypothetical average teams, with all such teams in point-maximization mode. The chart is obviously only a starting point for your strategy calculations.

Wrong; he's dealing with actual results of actual NFL games. The basis for his research is examination of the results of similar decisions in real NFL situations. Just because the research goes against conventional wisdom doesn't mean conventional wisdom is correct--rather the opposite, in fact. (Do you have any real evidence that going for it on fourth down is not the correct decision?)

No kidding.Go re-read it. He's looking at the overall average results of actual NFL games. When teams do X on the Y, on average X results. Notice how he doesn't mention the run D of the defense? The rush attack of the offense? Weather? Time left?

Again, you're dealing with long-run averages for hypothetical average teams playing against other hypothetical average teams, with all such teams in point-maximization mode. The chart is obviously only a starting point for your strategy calculations.

Again, you don't have "evidence". You brought up the "pinning them in the 13 is +EV". That's pretty much wrong. At the 15 its 0. The 13 is barely negligibility. Romer talks about going for it more on 4th and 1. That's correct. In GENERAL. If they were down by 2, with 0 seconds left, is going for it on 4th and 1 +EV?

You don't have any evidence that going for it on 4th and 1 in the 4th qrter with a 2 point lead works out to winning less games. In fact, you don't have any evidence at all. You have Romer who talks about how you should go for 4th and 3 on your own 10 yard line, at any point in the game. Um yeah.

 

[Ghost Rider]

apparently linehan was sleeping when jackson carried half the hawks D into the endzone.. he didnt think he could get that tough yard.

You have to be used to it by now. SJAX gets no respect. If he were on any other team that was COMMITTED to the run he would be a MONSTER. On the rams he is just an above average back b/c they will not use him correctly. If you look at the replay, witht the lead blocker, it looked like SJAX could have crawled into the endzone on 4th down. Instead they go to Cloffenstien?I have been complaining about the play calling all year. It hadn't cost them a game until this week but they should have lost to the Cards, if not for Warner fumbling. They also should have lost one other time but walked away lucky. At least twice this year they have had the lead in the 4th quarter with less than 7 minutes left. If you are the coach what do you do? With a stud like JAX you RUN the ball to kill time and pick up yds (especally when he is averaging 4ypc). What does Lienahan do? Inc. pass, inc. pass, inc. pass, punt. A total of 35 seconds off the clock and the ball goes back to the other team.It's like he found Martz's playbook hidden in the locker room and is calling the same plays. I was happy for the Rams and Jax this year b/c I was told they would be more committed to the run. I thought they would have a chance. SJAX has yet to carry the ball more than 25 times a game!!WAKE UP, WHAT YOUR DOING IS NOT WORKING!!!!

Jackson has the 7th most rushing attempts in the NFL this season, and is 3rd in the NFL among RB's in receptions. In fact, no RB in the NFL this season has touched the ball more than Steven Jackson. What more do you want?

 

[J R]

Jackson has the 7th most rushing attempts in the NFL this season, and is 3rd in the NFL among RB's in receptions. In fact, no RB in the NFL this season has touched the ball more than Steven Jackson. What more do you want?

Amen to that.

I find it really odd that in the last couple of days we've had a thread ripping on Linehan's offense/playcalling and not just one, but two threads on picking up the Rams defense for the playoff run.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I find it really odd that in the last couple of days we've had a thread ripping on Linehan's offense/playcalling and not just one, but two threads on picking up the Rams defense for the playoff run.

Even though I started this thread to criticize what I feel was a terrible coaching sequence by Linehan the other day, I think his play-calling, in general, has been good this year, for the most part. Much more balanced that his predecessor.

 

[North]

I have been complaining about the play calling all year. It hadn't cost them a game until this week but they should have lost to the Cards, if not for Warner fumbling. They also should have lost one other time but walked away lucky. At least twice this year they have had the lead in the 4th quarter with less than 7 minutes left. If you are the coach what do you do? With a stud like JAX you RUN the ball to kill time and pick up yds (especally when he is averaging 4ypc). What does Lienahan do? Inc. pass, inc. pass, inc. pass, punt. A total of 35 seconds off the clock and the ball goes back to the other team.It's like he found Martz's playbook hidden in the locker room and is calling the same plays. I was happy for the Rams and Jax this year b/c I was told they would be more committed to the run. I thought they would have a chance. SJAX has yet to carry the ball more than 25 times a game!!WAKE UP, WHAT YOUR DOING IS NOT WORKING!!!!

Just to play devil's advocate...Jackson is 7th in the league in carries, with only 2 guys more than 5 carries ahead of him.The Ram offense ranks 10th in ppg, 8th in ypg, 7th in DVOA.Now, it's true that the Rams have one of the higher pass to rush play ratios in the league, but Jackson is getting about 21 carries per game, along with 5 catches. Perhaps they need another RB to share the load? Considering the trouble Jackson had staying healthy the last 2 years, I'd be hesitant to give him more work than this.And if you really want to talk about the playcalling at the ends of games, in that Cardinals game, the Rams led 16-7 going into the 4th.1st drive: Jackson gets 4 carries in 5 plays before 3rd-9. Should Linehan run it then?2nd drive: Cards had just had a long drive for a TD to pull within 2 with 4 minutes left. At this point, sure you'd like to take time off, but you also have to get 1st downs whichever way is most effective. Jackson gets the first carry for -1 yards. Linehan calls 2 pass plays to pick up the 1st. Then passes on 1st down, and Bulger fumbles.Perhaps Linehan was just passing on 1st down to set up runs for Jackson or to get that last 1st down they need to end the game. Who can say for sure. But it sure looks like Linehan's calling pretty balanced plays, and you're complaining that Jackson should get ALL the plays.This is the point where a poster usually says something like, disgruntled Jackson owner.

Not a disgruntled owner just a Jackson fan who continues to argue that what Linehan is doing IS NOT working. 7 rushes for the game is a joke.We thought Lenihan screwed up the coaching last week? This has been the worst 2 weeks of coaching I have seen in my life!Linehan must have been listening to all of you apoligists who have been saying Jackson has been getting enough carries this year. You can present the #'s to me all you want but in game situations, play dictates how many times you should run the ball, not #'s alone. Just b/c LJ runs the ball 30 times a game doesnt mean he shouldn't get the ball 1st and goal from the 1. KC rides that horse for all he's worth. The fact that Jackson hasn't gotten 25 carries yet shows this franchise hasn't progressed at all. Just because Jackson is averaging something like 23 carries a game doesn't mean that the Rams coaching staff is doing a better job. Yeah Jackson is getting more carries this year but that doesn't mean how they are using him is correct.I think Bulger screwed up more times than Jackson had rushes. I don't blame this on the offensive line. Just b/c one person goes down doesn't mean you give up on the run. Now that McNabb is out for the year is Philly going to stop passing the ball?