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Selected Week 4 Game Spreads and Over/Unders (1 Viewer)

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
My preliminary screening identifies the following plays attractive for hypothetical sportsbook activity...lets discuss.

I'll include 2, 3, or 4 stars as a relative strength of play rating.

1. Detroit @ Green Bay (-13.5) o/u 46

The play: under 46 points. 2 stars.

Green Bay should limit detroit to 17 points worst case and has a desire to improve their run game. I'm guessing 27-14 or somesuch.

2. Carolina at New Orleans (-14) o/u 44.5

The play: New Orleans AND under 44.5. 2 stars on the spread and 3 stars on the over/under.

New Orleans is going to crush Carolina. The wide spread is the only reason I dont rate NO and points as 3 stars.

3. Jets (-6) at Buffalo o/u 37.

The play: Jets -6. 4 stars.

Think last weeks Pats/Bills game and add the Jets defense instead of the Pats defense. The spread should be double digits here.

4. Indy (-8) at Jacksonville o/u 46.

The play: Indy AND Under 46. 3 stars on Indy and 2 stars on Under 46.

This is another good team versus bad team game. Jax typically plays Indy tough but doesnt have the horses right now and will get STOMPED.

5. Houston (-5) at Oakland o/u 47.

The play: Houston AND Under 47. 3 stars.

So Houston can be passed on, AJ's ankle is a question mark, and Oakland has alphabet soup. So what? Foster will run for 140+ yards and Houston will grind the clock.

6. Redskins at Philly (-6.5) o/u 43.

The play: Philly. 2 stars.

Division battle may scare away some, but I think Vick continues to be the stud and the difference.

7. Chicago at Giants (-4) o/u 44.5.

The play: Chicago. 2 stars.

Bears should cause enough fits for the Giants offense to overcome 1 or 2 Cutler picks and get the win.

8. New England (-1.5) at Miami o/u 46.5.

The play: Over 46.5.

NE can only win with offense. Miami will score at will. I like a point total in the 50s in this game.

 
1: Indy and the under

2: Giants and the over. I am not a Bears believer they really should/could be 1-2

3: Jets and over

4: Detroit and the under. I just feel bad for Detroit.

 
1: Indy and the under2: Giants and the over. I am not a Bears believer they really should/could be 1-23: Jets and over4: Detroit and the under. I just feel bad for Detroit.
mike mayock agrees with you and points to the bears oline as atrocious. it may be true, but the fact is the giants kinda suck right now. peppers is gonna do bad things to eli.
 
here are the other games / one star plays that i dont want to touch....

denver at tennessee should go to the titans but i'm avoiding it.

baltimore / pittsburg should be a great game to watch. dont want any part of the action though.

i actually like cleveland to upset the bungles. but i'm not touching it.

the falcons niners spread and total looks about right (falcons by 7, 43 points).

would like to take the rams over seattle, but both teams are kinda random.

i like san diego and the under vs the cardinals, but the spread (-8.5) scares me.

 
I'm not saying that New Orleans won't destroy the Panthers, but strange things happen in the series between these two. When Carolina was great and New Orleans sucked, the Saints would often shock the Panthers. The same thing has happened in recent years when the Saints were clearly the better team.

I almost always bank on a split between these two teams, regardless of the strength of either side.

 
I'm not saying that New Orleans won't destroy the Panthers, but strange things happen in the series between these two. When Carolina was great and New Orleans sucked, the Saints would often shock the Panthers. The same thing has happened in recent years when the Saints were clearly the better team.I almost always bank on a split between these two teams, regardless of the strength of either side.
i know exactly what you're saying...it does give me pause, but i'm banking on the notion that there are some teams that are playing so bad right now they cant be expected to follow the typical division matchup historical trends. this would include the panthers, the bills, the jags, among others. if the panthers split with no this year, it will be by winning the second game, not this one.
 
I'm not saying that New Orleans won't destroy the Panthers, but strange things happen in the series between these two. When Carolina was great and New Orleans sucked, the Saints would often shock the Panthers. The same thing has happened in recent years when the Saints were clearly the better team.I almost always bank on a split between these two teams, regardless of the strength of either side.
i think the saints are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulders this week. it was a frustrating loss in the dome to ATL. they have yet to play their best ball but know they need to. i think this is a statement game for the saints.
 
I'm not saying that New Orleans won't destroy the Panthers, but strange things happen in the series between these two. When Carolina was great and New Orleans sucked, the Saints would often shock the Panthers. The same thing has happened in recent years when the Saints were clearly the better team.I almost always bank on a split between these two teams, regardless of the strength of either side.
i think the saints are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulders this week. it was a frustrating loss in the dome to ATL. they have yet to play their best ball but know they need to. i think this is a statement game for the saints.
in particular, relative to the topic, i have to believe payton is going to be hammering the defense for (a) being soft on the run, and (b) not getting beat when they have double coverage on the WR1. about the only thing carolina has going for it is a decent front 7, so 24-13 is a reasonable prediction imo.
 

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