Should I pick up JJ Nelson? WHIR (1 Viewer)

[themeistersinger]

Been monitoring JJ Nelson for a little while, then this came out today:
J.J. Nelson establishing himself as Cardinals' No. 2 receiver
http://www.espn.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/23175/j-j-nelson-establishing-himself-as-cardinals-no-2-receiver

In a PPR League, thinking only in terms of ROS value.  I kind of like all my receivers so not sure who I would drop to be able to pick him up.  But having the #2 receiver on the Cardinals is an attractive option.

Here's my WR roster with their weekly opponents for Week 10 - 16
Brandon Marshall - Rams, Bye, Patriots, Colts, @49ers, Dolphins, @Patriots
Brandin Cooks - Broncos, @Panthers, Rams, Lions, @Buccs, @Cardinals, Buccs
Alshon Jeffery - @Buccs, @Giants, Titans, 49ers, @Lions, Packers, Redskins
Stefon Diggs - @Redskins, Cardinals, @Lions, Cowboys, @Jaguars, Colts, @Packers
Davante Adams - @Titans, @Redskins, @Eagles, Texans, Seahawks, @Bears, Vikings

Here's the Cardinals schedule
JJ Nelson - 49ers, @Vikings, @Falcons, Redskins, @Dolphins, Saints, @Seahawks

Cards were off in Week 9, here are the snap percentages from week - JJ Nelson led the team
JJ Nelson - 92%
Larry Fitzgerald - 79%
John Brown - 54%
Michael Floyd - 41%
Brittan Golden - 32%

Here's how the six of them are ranked on the FBG ROS for WR for PPR
11 - Brandin Cooks
16 - Stefon Diggs
21 - Alshon Jeffery
31 - Brandon Marshall
44 - Davante Adams
55 - JJ Nelson
 

Leave a link and I will help in return - thanks!

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I would be tempted to drop Adams for him - but in PPR I would probably stand pat with what you have.

 

[bluer6]

Even being a packers homer, I'd drop Adams for JJ.  Adams is mistake prone and there are many mouths to feed.  JJ has carved himself a nice role it that offence.

 

[PiRadii]

Tough choice since your WRs are so good and you're looking at potential with Nelson.  I'm not sure what the rest of your team looks like.  Can you trade away a WR to strenghten another position and then pick up Nelson?

 

[jungchen]

I like the combination of @bluer6 and @PiRadii ´s statements. 

With the packers, you have Nelson and Cobb with Montgomery probably third in line. That leaves Adams as the #4 WR.

Assuming the trade deadline in your league hasn´t passed already, a 2-1 trade (upgrading RB or TE?) would create space for JJ.

Input wanted:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/751169-your-opinion-mattersline-up-help-needed/

 

[Rubi]

Given your situation I'd drop Adams for J.J.

thanks for answering mine

 

[kornbred]

Tough call but agree that Adams is the call. You can even make a case for Diggs.Thanks for answering mine

 

[themeistersinger]

Unfortunately I have a reputation as a bad person to trade with ever since I sent Danny Woodhead and Jay Cutler and received Aaron Rodgers.  Mind you, this was a PPR league and Woodhead was tearing it up at the time, my trade partner had 3 QB's on his roster (including Philip Rivers who was out performing Rodgers at the time, and my original offer was to get back Rivers which he turned down), and he only had 2 RB's on his roster and they both stunk.  I've also won the title 4 out of 7 times so that's another knock against me.  But I do always try to put together a 2-for-1 that actually HELPS the team I am trading with, (for example, I use Dave Richards trading chart (at CBS) and always offer to give more points than I am receiving, and always give them an upgrade at a position of obvious need) but still get turned down all the time.  Sigh.

Trade deadline is day before Thanksgiving so there's still a little time.

 

[hounddog]

When I get below 30 in RB or WR rankings, I treat them all the same, since I can only start max of 3, so the rankings difference between Nelson and Adams is negligible, I like Nelsons matchups over Adams nearly every week so I would go Nelson over Adams, but not any of the others

 

[themeistersinger]

Still torn a bit - Adams has looked good this season, and I do expect him to be #3 rather than Montgomery.

Some other stats I found

Adams - played 76% of total snaps (423/557), 0.29 PPR points per snap

Nelson - played 32% of total snaps (171/531), 0.30 PPR points per snap

 

[jungchen]

Some other stats I found

Adams - played 76% of total snaps (423/557)

Nelson - played 32% of total snaps (171/531)

These are interesting stats, but in perspective GB had been dealing with injuries (to Cobb and the RB´s). This pushed Adams into a more prominent role as Montgomery had to shift to RB and someone had to get Cobb´s targets. I can foresee a decline here.

JJ only outplayed J. Brown and Floyd over the last couple of weeks, so in economical slang, he got promoted to WR2. His snpa count is more likely to go up rather than down.

If you wanna play your WR5 by trend, I´ld say JJ´s arrow is pointing waay up and flashing...