Should Reggie Williams 10 TDs last year (1 Viewer)

[Mookie Blaylock]

I know Reggie Williams is slow. That he's not a deep threat and he's on a run first offense. I know that he's also nursing a hami. I know this. But it seems to me that they use him as a hybrid tight end of sorts. Am I way off base here? Jacksonville does not have many legitimate weapons in the passing game. Heck, there is no guarantees about what Garrard is going to do. So, how should I, and how have you, projected Reggie Williams season looking? How unreasonable is it to project simliar totals to last year?

2007: 38/629/10

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I know Reggie Williams is slow. That he's not a deep threat and he's on a run first offense. I know that he's also nursing a hami. I know this. But it seems to me that they use him as a hybrid tight end of sorts. Am I way off base here? Jacksonville does not have many legitimate weapons in the passing game. Heck, there is no guarantees about what Garrard is going to do. So, how should I, and how have you, projected Reggie Williams season looking? How unreasonable is it to project simliar totals to last year?2007: 38/629/10

Conservatively, take a 20% discount off last year to reflect the acquisition of a (gimpy) Jerry Porter, the development of Lewis at TE and the possible reclamation of Matt Jones's career, but I do think he is value. The Jags are a good football team with Garrard at the helm.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

I know Reggie Williams is slow. That he's not a deep threat and he's on a run first offense. I know that he's also nursing a hami. I know this. But it seems to me that they use him as a hybrid tight end of sorts. Am I way off base here? Jacksonville does not have many legitimate weapons in the passing game. Heck, there is no guarantees about what Garrard is going to do. So, how should I, and how have you, projected Reggie Williams season looking? How unreasonable is it to project simliar totals to last year?2007: 38/629/10

Conservatively, take a 20% discount off last year to reflect the acquisition of a (gimpy) Jerry Porter, the development of Lewis at TE and the possible reclamation of Matt Jones's career, but I do think he is value. The Jags are a good football team with Garrard at the helm.

I wouldn't even know where to get this info, but I'd be curious to know what kind of yardage Williams averaged on his TD receptions. I'd be very surprised if it was over about 8 or 10 yards. I agree that w/ Garrard running the O the Jags are a good team and as the default #1, I think he's worth rostering. Any homers out there (or others in the know) heard anything that would make me think this is the year they actually try to get the TE involved?

 

[simsarge]

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Excellent contribution. Thanks.

 

[bucsbaby]

People are high on Garrard this year and he has to throw the ball to someone

 

[Rounders]

He went undrafted in my league (injury scared people away) and I just picked him up yesterday as a potential bye week fill-in or a WR3 should Ocho Cinco and his shoulder act up.

I think that he has some value, just need him to get healthy.

BTW, he caught a TD last night in the red zone. I think that Garrard really looks his way in the redzone bc of his size and ability to get open.

 

[Sweet Love]

I would take a good deal off those TD numbers...he had more than one touchdown per four receptions...think about that...even in Randy Moss' record setting year last year he had less than a 4:1 TD to Reception ratio (barely, but still). Williams screams Boetrigter from a few years back (he had just as good of a QB throwing to him in Green as Williams does), but he failed to put up TD numbers like that again. I think William will improve on the number of receptions, maybe on the yards and I would be shocked if he ended up with more than 5 TDs.

 

[Sweet Love]

People are high on Garrard this year and he has to throw the ball to someone

I kind of agree...I had Garrard last year and thought he would be a great QB to pair with like a Delhomme or Favre, but Cutler has slipped to me in both my drafts thus far (Round 9 in 12 teamers) and when I evaluate the upside, i see much less for Garrard.

 

[cjack]

Will Troy Williamson finally emerge? Who knows, but it's one more thing to consider.

 

[gruecd]

I wouldn't even know where to get this info, but I'd be curious to know what kind of yardage Williams averaged on his TD receptions. I'd be very surprised if it was over about 8 or 10 yards.

Actually, he averaged over 25 yards per TD reception.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Quietest 10 TD receptions ever.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here's a list of all WRs that are 75 inches or taller, with fewer than 50 receptions and over 6 TDs in a season. On the left of the player's name are his statistics in year N; on the right, his statistics in year N+1.

g	 rec	ryd	td	ht					   g	 rec	ryd	 td15	38	 629	10	76	Reggie Williams	-	 -	  -	   -16	39	 436	 7	76	Michael Jenkins	15	53	 532	 413	36	 605	 9	76	Chris Henry		 8	21	 343	 216	41	 681	 7	76	Ernest Wilford	 16	36	 524	 213	45	 687	 8	76	Roy E. Williams	16	82	1310	 713	49	 767	13	76	Randy Moss		 16	60	1005	 816	47	 657	 8	75	Marcus Robinson	15	31	 515	 516	41	 716	 9	75	Javon Walker	   16	89	1382	1216	47	 595	 7	75	Tai Streets		13	28	 260	 116	20	 420	 8	75	Marc Boerigter	 15	11	 158	 016	45	 681	 7	75	Torrance Small	 15	49	 655	 415	45	 590	 8	77	Ed McCaffrey	   15	64	1053	1015	48	 553	 7	77	Ed McCaffrey	   15	45	 590	 813	44	 714	 9	76	Michael Jackson	16	76	1201	1416	33	 821	 8	75	Alvin Harper	   13	46	 633	 215	41	 756	 8	76	Michael Jackson	 9	21	 304	 216	47	 755	 7	76	Michael Jackson	15	41	 756	 816	39	 592	 7	76	Willie Green	   15	33	 586	 516	45	 605	11	75	Cris Carter		16	27	 413	 315	18	 334	 7	75	Daryl Turner	   12	14	 153	 616	34	 670	13	75	Daryl Turner	   15	18	 334	 716	35	 715	10	75	Daryl Turner	   16	34	 670	1316	40	 668	 7	75	Ken Burrough	   -	 -	  -	   -16	46	 832	 9	75	Ray Butler		  9	17	 268	 216	48	 815	 9	80	Harold Carmichael  16	61	1028	 614	43	 816	 8	75	Ken Burrough	   16	47	 624	 214	46	 665	 7	80	Harold Carmichael  16	55	1072	 814	43	1112	11	75	Roger Carr		  7	11	 199	 114	49	 639	 7	80	Harold Carmichael  14	42	 503	 514	49	 673	 7	75	Charley Taylor	 14	59	 801	 714	36	 620	 8	75	Frank Pitts		13	31	 317	 410	42	 593	 8	75	Charley Taylor	  6	24	 370	 4

 

[LionsFan78]

Excellent contribution. Thanks.

Do you even know what the is for??? That icon is meant for bookmarking the thread so one can find it easily on the SP frontpage, follow it, and perhaps add to the conversation later. Anyways, IMO Reggie is worth owning, but he's not as valuable in PPR leagues. Are you looking at him as a WR3? WR4-5? I don't think it's unreasonable at all to expect the same yardage, and perhaps a bump in receptions. With all the acquisitions at WR this year, including Walker who missed last year, I just don't see a chance at the TD's remaining the same.

 

[Avery]

I know Reggie Williams is slow. That he's not a deep threat and he's on a run first offense. I know that he's also nursing a hami. I know this. But it seems to me that they use him as a hybrid tight end of sorts. Am I way off base here? Jacksonville does not have many legitimate weapons in the passing game. Heck, there is no guarantees about what Garrard is going to do. So, how should I, and how have you, projected Reggie Williams season looking? How unreasonable is it to project simliar totals to last year?

2007: 38/629/10

I think he ran his 40 in about 4.45 seconds so, although he's not a speedster, he's got good speed for his size and I wouldn't classify him as slow.If I remember correctly, his physical game is well rounded but he is not the sharpest knife in the drawer and his mental game (routes etc.) was lagging way behind.

Maybe he's finally "getting it"?

 

[SuperJohn96]

Here's a list of all WRs that are 75 inches or taller, with fewer than 50 receptions and over 6 TDs in a season. On the left of the player's name are his statistics in year N; on the right, his statistics in year N+1.

g	 rec	ryd	td	ht					   g	 rec	ryd	 td15	38	 629	10	76	Reggie Williams	-	 -	  -	   -16	39	 436	 7	76	Michael Jenkins	15	53	 532	 413	36	 605	 9	76	Chris Henry		 8	21	 343	 216	41	 681	 7	76	Ernest Wilford	 16	36	 524	 213	45	 687	 8	76	Roy E. Williams	16	82	1310	 713	49	 767	13	76	Randy Moss		 16	60	1005	 816	47	 657	 8	75	Marcus Robinson	15	31	 515	 516	41	 716	 9	75	Javon Walker	   16	89	1382	1216	47	 595	 7	75	Tai Streets		13	28	 260	 116	20	 420	 8	75	Marc Boerigter	 15	11	 158	 016	45	 681	 7	75	Torrance Small	 15	49	 655	 415	45	 590	 8	77	Ed McCaffrey	   15	64	1053	1015	48	 553	 7	77	Ed McCaffrey	   15	45	 590	 813	44	 714	 9	76	Michael Jackson	16	76	1201	1416	33	 821	 8	75	Alvin Harper	   13	46	 633	 215	41	 756	 8	76	Michael Jackson	 9	21	 304	 216	47	 755	 7	76	Michael Jackson	15	41	 756	 816	39	 592	 7	76	Willie Green	   15	33	 586	 516	45	 605	11	75	Cris Carter		16	27	 413	 315	18	 334	 7	75	Daryl Turner	   12	14	 153	 616	34	 670	13	75	Daryl Turner	   15	18	 334	 716	35	 715	10	75	Daryl Turner	   16	34	 670	1316	40	 668	 7	75	Ken Burrough	   -	 -	  -	   -16	46	 832	 9	75	Ray Butler		  9	17	 268	 216	48	 815	 9	80	Harold Carmichael  16	61	1028	 614	43	 816	 8	75	Ken Burrough	   16	47	 624	 214	46	 665	 7	80	Harold Carmichael  16	55	1072	 814	43	1112	11	75	Roger Carr		  7	11	 199	 114	49	 639	 7	80	Harold Carmichael  14	42	 503	 514	49	 673	 7	75	Charley Taylor	 14	59	 801	 714	36	 620	 8	75	Frank Pitts		13	31	 317	 410	42	 593	 8	75	Charley Taylor	  6	24	 370	 4

YEAR "N" PLAYER STATS: GP	REC	RCYD	TD477   1319   21412   269 = TOTALS 16	 44	 718	 9 = 16 GAME AVGYEAR "N+1" PLAYER STATS: GP	REC	RCYD	TD413   1226   18559   162 = TOTALS 16	 47	 719	 6 = 16 GAME AVG

So Receptions and Yardage stay almost the exact same, but TDs dropped by 30%.So if Reggie Williams holds true to this...

GP  REC  RCYD	TD15   38   629  10.0 = 200716   41   671   7.5 = 2008

 

[Chase Stuart]

If you narrow the criteria a bit, almost everyone drops out.

If we up the height to <= 76 inches, up the TD requirement to 8 or more, and lower the reception max to 45, you only get 5 WRs since the merger. Williams in '07, Chris Henry in '06, Roy Williams in '05, Ed McCaffrey in '97, and Michael Jackson in '93 and '95. Henry in particular had very similar numbers, but I've never thought of them as similar WRs. Even though Williams was the #1 fantasy guy for Jacksonville, he was pretty much their WR3 in name, like Henry.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Excellent contribution. Thanks.

Do you even know what the is for??? That icon is meant for bookmarking the thread so one can find it easily on the SP frontpage, follow it, and perhaps add to the conversation later. Anyways, IMO Reggie is worth owning, but he's not as valuable in PPR leagues. Are you looking at him as a WR3? WR4-5? I don't think it's unreasonable at all to expect the same yardage, and perhaps a bump in receptions. With all the acquisitions at WR this year, including Walker who missed last year, I just don't see a chance at the TD's remaining the same.

Sorry about that. I had no idea what that icon was for. My bad.

 

[Eviloutsider]

Funny thing is Greg Jennings got drafted very high after his touchdown laden season. I would imagine that Reggie's and Greg's TDs will go down by 40% but one is being drafted in the 6-7th and the other is being undrafted.

 

[Asinine]

Not sure I understand the 'slow' reference either. This is the first I remember Reggie being healthy, knowing his responsibilities on the field, and not in the coach's dog house. I'm not expecting greatness this year with JAX focused on the running game, but I think he'll get closer to the 50/950/8 range.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Not sure I understand the 'slow' reference either. This is the first I remember Reggie being healthy, knowing his responsibilities on the field, and not in the coach's dog house. I'm not expecting greatness this year with JAX focused on the running game, but I think he'll get closer to the 50/950/8 range.

Maybe he just looks slow. Not been my best effort on this one.