redman
Footballguy
Jacksonville has the nastiest defense in the NFL this year, especially when you consider who they've played to date (Dallas, Pittsburgh & Indy). Their defensive tackles are massive and athletic and free up their excellent MLB and safeties to make plays, and their entire back seven tackles very well. Their opponents have averaged 12 first downs and less than 13 points per game.
Portis has had a well-publicized shoulder injury, has only really gotten carries in about 5 quarters of football this year, and was outrushed by Ladell Betts last week. The o-line has looked average in run blocking and worse in pass blocking. Brunell, despite setting a NFL record last week for completions, has looked unsteady, and it bears mention that the team got its one win against Houston which is not exactly a powerhouse.
So do you bench Portis? I don't think so unless you've got another bona fide stud you can put into his place. Here's why.
Portis consistently comes up big against nasty rush defenses. I'm not sure why other than that he's a good RB, but he does.
Last year, Portis played against the following defenses, each of which has listed next to it the yards per rush allowed in parenthesis: Chicago (3.7); Seattle (3.6); Tampa Bay (3.5); San Diego (3.5); New York Giants (3.9); Philadelphia (3.7). Here were Portis' performances against them:
+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 chi | 21 121 | 0 | 0 || 4 sea | 25 90 | 18 | 0 || 8 @nyg | 4 9 | 13 | 0 || 9 phi | 21 67 | 8 | 1 || 10 @tam | 23 144 | 9 | 1 || 12 sdg | 29 87 | 23 | 0 || 16 nyg | 27 108 | 10 | 1 || 17 @phi | 27 112 | 5 | 2 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 177 738 | 86 | 5 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+In other words, he averaged 22/92, with about 10 yards receiving on top and just over 1 TD per game, or right at his season pace. You'll note that these games occurred throughout the course of the season, and aren't limited to that 5 game winning streak at the end or something. If anything, the emotional (for the Giants) week 8 game @NYG following Wellington Mara's death is an aberration as they stopped running after the Giants jumped out quickly to an enormous lead. That extremely low number of carries and yards is the least reliable guide in that list.
I'm not predicting anything magnificent for Portis, or even an Redskins win. These two teams figure to beat each other up for four full quarters with the strong likelihood of any team getting 20 points winning. Moreover, the 'Skins will (if possible) take whatever load they can off of Portis and his shoulder, which is something that they didn't worry about last year.
OTOH, this is a must-win game as there is a huge difference as a practical matter between 1-3 and 2-2 for the Redskins, and the team won't want to put the game in Brunell's hands over Portis. I think Clinton ends up with 90-120 rushing yards and a TD. If you can beat that with another player, fine, but I don't believe he'll let you down.
Portis has had a well-publicized shoulder injury, has only really gotten carries in about 5 quarters of football this year, and was outrushed by Ladell Betts last week. The o-line has looked average in run blocking and worse in pass blocking. Brunell, despite setting a NFL record last week for completions, has looked unsteady, and it bears mention that the team got its one win against Houston which is not exactly a powerhouse.
So do you bench Portis? I don't think so unless you've got another bona fide stud you can put into his place. Here's why.
Portis consistently comes up big against nasty rush defenses. I'm not sure why other than that he's a good RB, but he does.
Last year, Portis played against the following defenses, each of which has listed next to it the yards per rush allowed in parenthesis: Chicago (3.7); Seattle (3.6); Tampa Bay (3.5); San Diego (3.5); New York Giants (3.9); Philadelphia (3.7). Here were Portis' performances against them:
+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 chi | 21 121 | 0 | 0 || 4 sea | 25 90 | 18 | 0 || 8 @nyg | 4 9 | 13 | 0 || 9 phi | 21 67 | 8 | 1 || 10 @tam | 23 144 | 9 | 1 || 12 sdg | 29 87 | 23 | 0 || 16 nyg | 27 108 | 10 | 1 || 17 @phi | 27 112 | 5 | 2 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 177 738 | 86 | 5 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+In other words, he averaged 22/92, with about 10 yards receiving on top and just over 1 TD per game, or right at his season pace. You'll note that these games occurred throughout the course of the season, and aren't limited to that 5 game winning streak at the end or something. If anything, the emotional (for the Giants) week 8 game @NYG following Wellington Mara's death is an aberration as they stopped running after the Giants jumped out quickly to an enormous lead. That extremely low number of carries and yards is the least reliable guide in that list.
I'm not predicting anything magnificent for Portis, or even an Redskins win. These two teams figure to beat each other up for four full quarters with the strong likelihood of any team getting 20 points winning. Moreover, the 'Skins will (if possible) take whatever load they can off of Portis and his shoulder, which is something that they didn't worry about last year.
OTOH, this is a must-win game as there is a huge difference as a practical matter between 1-3 and 2-2 for the Redskins, and the team won't want to put the game in Brunell's hands over Portis. I think Clinton ends up with 90-120 rushing yards and a TD. If you can beat that with another player, fine, but I don't believe he'll let you down.
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Bye-week peril.
I didn't agree with your post about starting those players over Portis. I still think you would have to be a crazy person to start Addai, or Barlow over Portis. However anyone that did start any of the four guys you called out wouldn't have been dissapointed. They all had very good games. Very gutsy call but bang on. 
