Summary of results from 5 recent initial dynasty drafts (excludes IDP, includes rookies):
ADP – Name (target round) [where drafted overall in recent drafts]
12 - FWP (beginning of 2nd round) [9-10-13-15-16]
13 – Ronnie Brown (beginning of 2nd round) [8-12-14-14-15]
14 – Portis (beginning of 2nd round) [11-12-14-14-15]
17 – McGahee (middle of 2nd round) [12-16-16-19-20]
18 – Rudi Johnson (middle of 2nd round) [10-14-19-22-29]
24 – DeAngelo Williams (beginning of 3rd round) [18-18-24-30-33]
37 – Travis Henry (beginning of 4th round) [35-36-37-38-40]
47 – Kevin Jones (beginning of 5th round) [41-45-45-51-60]
Comments:
1. I think it’s amazing that you can count on getting either FWP, Brown or Portis at the beginning of the 2nd round.
2. Similarly, you can usually get either McGahee or Rudi in the middle of the 2nd round.
3. De. Williams had a lot of variance in where he’s being drafted. I like him a lot for dynasty purposes.
4. I think Travis Henry is a steal at the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th rounds which is where he’s consistently being drafted.
5. A lot of variation for Kevin Jones as a result of his injury status and the prospects of missing several games next season. But high upside for a young RB. IMO the risk is worth the chance of getting a young top-10 RB in the 5th round.
ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-25 players at the RB position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not the deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.
ADP – Name (target round) [where drafted overall in recent drafts]
12 - FWP (beginning of 2nd round) [9-10-13-15-16]
13 – Ronnie Brown (beginning of 2nd round) [8-12-14-14-15]
14 – Portis (beginning of 2nd round) [11-12-14-14-15]
17 – McGahee (middle of 2nd round) [12-16-16-19-20]
18 – Rudi Johnson (middle of 2nd round) [10-14-19-22-29]
24 – DeAngelo Williams (beginning of 3rd round) [18-18-24-30-33]
37 – Travis Henry (beginning of 4th round) [35-36-37-38-40]
47 – Kevin Jones (beginning of 5th round) [41-45-45-51-60]
Comments:
1. I think it’s amazing that you can count on getting either FWP, Brown or Portis at the beginning of the 2nd round.
2. Similarly, you can usually get either McGahee or Rudi in the middle of the 2nd round.
3. De. Williams had a lot of variance in where he’s being drafted. I like him a lot for dynasty purposes.
4. I think Travis Henry is a steal at the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th rounds which is where he’s consistently being drafted.
5. A lot of variation for Kevin Jones as a result of his injury status and the prospects of missing several games next season. But high upside for a young RB. IMO the risk is worth the chance of getting a young top-10 RB in the 5th round.
ETA: Disclaimer - I participated in a recent draft and compiled this info for my own drafting purposes and thought I'd share it with the SP. However, it was done fairly quickly, so it may contain some inadvertant errors. Also, I'm sure there are many other "sleepers" or potential value picks that I haven't identified. I focused on the top-25 players at the RB position and the players who had fallen the furthest IMO (not the deep sleepers). To reduce the impact of outliers, ADP was calculated by dropping the high and low values and averaging the other values.
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