Sleepers Post OTA's: Who ya got? (1 Viewer)

[Bojang0301]

Some of these are on the deeper end. I'm not going to go into the shallower end and may update later. Just hoping to generate some discussion as some early offseason sleepers (Gerhart, Mike Wallace) have already been identified and value has jumped to not a sleeper status. Most of my perspective is from a dynasty standpoint but there is a bit of both that and redraft in my thoughts.

Bernard Pierce/Lorenzo Taliaferro: Sort of on the fringes of deep sleeper. I mention them because the Baltimore run game has largely been ignored this offseason. It is murky, especially not knowing what Ray Rice's suspension, but I've been looking into Kubiak to see if I was missing something on Torrey Smith/Pitta/Flacco. I still find those three sort of mundane and don't expect much more than last season. What I found is common knowledge but something that gets forgotten on one bad season, one that everyone gets. Kubiak should have complete autonomy over the offense seeing he asked Cleveland for a "head coach of the offense" that scared them off. Not including last year, only 4 times since 1995 has a Kubiak back not reached 1,000 yards. The ones that didn't were Ron Dayne x2, Steve Slaton and an end of the road Terell Davis. Some of the back that reached 1,000 were Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Rueben Droughns and Steve Slaton... I wish I had a crystal ball and could predict the starter. I like Pierce based on two years ago but if you can cover this situation I feel like its worth it.

Demetrius Harris: His name has cropped often after Reid had high praise for his work ethic in the offseason. One of the leagues many athletic project TE's. Long shot to make the active roster, even longer shot to get serious playing time. Kelce so far hasn't been able to participate or even prove his health so far and that concerns me. Microfracture is a serious surgery, one that people have brushed off and forgotten how it has really regressed a lot of the players who have had to get it. Fasano is not an attractive option and the rest of the TE's on the roster are equally unattractive on the fantasy side. I've been grabbing Harris, even in my short bench PPR just in case he's the next Gates.

Denard Robinson: His super sleeper status is probably gone but I think he merits mentioning. Toby Gerhart was the guy at the beginning of the offseason it was great to have. Not saying that luster of having him is gone but people have dove off the deep, with some good reasoning behind it. People were very down on Denard and I grabbed him where I could in leagues where owners had given up on him. Gerhart, like most RB's, doesn't have the best track record for staying healthy in his small resume in the NFL. Really, I think Denard is a stellar athlete and could have an opportunity for a lot of touches if he has rounded out taking on the role they wanted him to play last year.

Jake Locker: In the past he's been a highly inconsistent option. Whisenhunt hasn't always been a coach that endears himself to QB's, just ask Leinart and Big Ben. Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers both were rejuvenated to fantasy relevance under Whisenhunt. After initial reports of skepticism it seems that the staff and Locker are a stellar match. Couple that with Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, Nate Washington and his ability to run the football and I think he is being undervalued right now.

Others who I think are undervalued:

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassell, Sam Bradford and EJ Manuel

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Polk, Stepfan Taylor

WR: Miles Austin, Rueben Randle, Andre Holmes/Rod Streater, Stedman Bailey

TE: Ausberry/Rivera, Richard Rodgers, Luke Willson

Some deeperish IDP sleepers:

DL: Malik Jackson, Devin Taylor, Akiem Hicks, Margus Hunt

LB: Nico Johnson, Emmanuel Lamur, Keenan Robinson, Korey Toomer

S: TJ McDonald

 

[Soulfly3]

Andrew Hawkins and it aint close

Even w Gordon playing

 

[Khy]

Andrew Hawkins and it aint close

Even w Gordon playing

I love Hawkins, but if by some miracle Gordon's only suspended 8 games. He might still see 100 targets in half a season.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Lance Dunbar

 

[thriftyrocker]

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassell, Sam Bradford and EJ Manuel

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Polk, Stepfan Taylor

WR: Miles Austin, Rueben Randle, Andre Holmes/Rod Streater, Stedman Bailey

TE: Ausberry/Rivera, Richard Rodgers, Luke Willson

Some deeperish IDP sleepers:

DL: Malik Jackson, Devin Taylor, Akiem Hicks, Margus Hunt

LB: Nico Johnson, Emmanuel Lamur, Keenan Robinson, Korey Toomer

S: TJ McDonald

QB - I like the Tannehill call. He could breakout with Lazor's help. I think McCown is a solid 0QB buy in dynasty. I would take a chance on Geno before EJ at this point.

RB - A lot of good 0RB targets that are essentially free including BBolden, SHouston, Leshoure, Helu, Asiata, Polk, RWilliams, Starks, Ballard, JRodgers, KHunter, STaylor

WR - CLE or OAK could get you some solid Harry Douglas-like performance in PPR, but I'm more hopeful for the Quick/Britt winner to actually matter.

IDP - I like Vinny Rey a lot as a breakout. He practiced with the 1st team all OTA. If he passes the other Rey, then he will be great. Koa Misi is another guy with a good opportunity, don't know if he'll play 3d though. Like the Keenan Robinson call.

 

[Young 8]

. Gerhart, like most RB's, doesn't have the best track record for staying healthy in his small resume in the NFL.

He played in 61 games (out of 64) in 4 seasons.

 

[Carver]

I like Tiquan Underwood down in Carolina. The kid flashed some talent in TB.

 

[cloppbeast]

The same as before OTAs.

I personally put very little stock into June practice. I would prefer the players I like to do poorly during such time.

QB: Matt Cassell, Sam Bradford
WR: Rueben Randle,

I'm very much behind the Norv Turner QB, but I'm not so sure it will be Cassell. If I drafted today, I'd hedge him with Bridgewater.

I also like Bradford at qb. He shouldn't receive all the blame for his stat 'struggles' having one of the worst supporting casts through his first few years. It should get better by default, virtue of the law of averages.

Rueben Randle could be 2014's Ryan Mathews. Real football players typically persist much longer than their fantasy proponents. New offense will only help Randle.

 

[cloppbeast]

Deep sleeper: Atlanta tight end guy from Stanford, Toilolo. Groomed to replace Gonzalez, he will no doubt fall short of such a high of bar. The team didn't draft another tight end, so at least the Falcons like him. Bear Pascoe doesn't threaten to get many receptions; I feel like Toilolo has the pass catching tight end role to himself - 75 to 110 targets, with a pretty good touchdown rate, is not out of the question.

 

[Bojang0301]

Deep sleeper: Atlanta tight end guy from Stanford, Toilolo. Groomed to replace Gonzalez, he will no doubt fall short of such a high of bar. The team didn't draft another tight end, so at least the Falcons like him. Bear Pascoe doesn't threaten to get many receptions; I feel like Toilolo has the pass catching tight end role to himself - 75 to 110 targets, with a pretty good touchdown rate, is not out of the question.

I guess I specifically mentioned post OTA's because Gerhart was a sleeper at the beginning of summer (really at the beginning of free agency) and has seen his stock sky rocket to what you either consider a reasonable price or too high for his potential.

As for Toilolo, I liked him until I learned about the Falcons use of their inline TE as a blocker and that he isn't taking over Gonzo's role but that of a more traditional blocking TE. I actually think his targets may be limited and Harry Douglas may see some of Tony's production and quietly had a good season last year.

 

[josefrees]

I disagree completely with Chris Polk. Darren Sproles is the handcuff to own.

 

[Bojang0301]

I disagree completely with Chris Polk. Darren Sproles is the handcuff to own.

Darren Sproles has never carried a full load. I don't expect him to now at his advanced age.Edit to add: If anything I think Sproles upside is what it has always been a Danny Woodhead-esk year wouldn't be out of the question but he gets his touches in other ways than just carrying the ball. Kelly likes to role with whatever is working the best and that means keeping balance on offense. There have always been blurbs about the staff being high on Polk.

 

[az_prof]

Wheaton has made progress at earning the WR2 spot (valuable spot) in Pittsburgh and Streater and Andre Holmes had good OTAs in Oakland.

 

[josefrees]

Age is secondary to workload. Shady has more touches in his short career than Sproles does. I'm curious what the actual proof Sproles has lost a step or whether he is supposed to carry a big load? What really is the difference in work load if you add 40 or 50 (2-3 per game) touches minimum as rushes and convert some of those reception touches to rushing touches? You are acting like he is made of glass and he has had a ton of workload. If shady goes down his value goes sky high

As for Chris Polk, when you are competing with Bryce Brown it is a little easier to be raved about. This year I haven't heard his name much at all and all the words being said by coaches is Sproles is a running back first and foremost

 

[Bojang0301]

Age is secondary to workload. Shady has more touches in his short career than Sproles does. I'm curious what the actual proof Sproles has lost a step or whether he is supposed to carry a big load? What really is the difference in work load if you add 40 or 50 (2-3 per game) touches minimum as rushes and convert some of those reception touches to rushing touches? You are acting like he is made of glass and he has had a ton of workload. If shady goes down his value goes sky high

As for Chris Polk, when you are competing with Bryce Brown it is a little easier to be raved about. This year I haven't heard his name much at all and all the words being said by coaches is Sproles is a running back first and foremost

The same Bryce Brown that has as many 100 yard games in two years as Pierre Thomas the guy Sproles split with at NO. They had to be comfortable enough with Polk to trade him away. You're right in that their hasn't been much said about Polk but the last Rotoworld blurb I saw on him was that he would receive the bulk of carries if Shady went down. Now do I expect him to receive anything at all with Shady healthy? No. And I do feel like Sproles will still get his while Shady is healthy. Polk's worth is much more than his price right now, especially for McCoy owners.

 

[Bojang0301]

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7424/chris-polk

 

[cloppbeast]

As for Toilolo, I liked him until I learned about the Falcons use of their inline TE as a blocker and that he isn't taking over Gonzo's role but that of a more traditional blocking TE. I actually think his targets may be limited and Harry Douglas may see some of Tony's production and quietly had a good season last year.

I've read the same information about their plan, and recognize it limits the upside. Not in the mold of Jimmy Graham, Atlanta drafted him more as a blocker than as a receiver; let's not exaggerate though, he doesn't play tackle. Every offense will use their tight ends in the passing game somewhat, and Toilolo makes the best receiver out of Atlanta's group (due more to lack thereof). On an offense which will likely make another 600+ pass attempts, a small piece of a big pie can still have some value. For a 6'8" tight end, that could mean some touch downs.

I don't want to make Toilolo out as a world beater with Julius Thomas upside. I like him for the same reason I like ramen noodles: the best meal for 10 cents.

 

[josefrees]

And the week before Rotoworld reported Chip Kelly was mad when people acted like Sproles wouldn't play running back. Their touches prediction is a couple touches low in my prediction--8-10 isn't too much to ask for.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3221/darren-sproles

Post-OTAs there has been some talk about Sproles value as a runner in the Philly media

 

[Run It Up]

Danny Amendola
Jordan Mathews
Andrew Hawkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Hakeem Nicks
Rueben Randle

Might be a stretch to call him a sleeper, but given his floor and ADP, Ladarius Green.