Smathers Dynasty QB rankings (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Dynasty QB rankings updated January 23rd 2007

* rookies ***assumption Brett Farve retires

1 - Peyton Manning

2 - Carson Palmer

3 - Tom Brady

4 - Donovan McNabb

5 - Drew Brees

6 - Marc Bulger

7 - Phil Rivers

8 - Matt Hasselbeck

9 - Eli Manning

10 - Michael Vick

11 - Tony Romo

12 - Vince Young

Vince could move up a few notches but not right now.

13 - Jay Cutler

14 - Jake Delhomme

15 - Ben Roethlisberger

16 - Matt Lienart

17 - J.P. Losman

18 - Daunte Culpepper

19 - *JaMarcus Russell

20 - Alex Smith

21 - Bryon Leftwich

22 - Jason Cambell

23 - Matt Schaub

24 - Chad Pennington

This was the most difficult section. Cutler/Cambell rose quickly in my ranknigs. I warmed to Losman. Daunte is difficult, some have already buried him already and I think that is premature. Alex Smith has improved and he gets Mount Vernon back, he was a 21 year old Junior who came out a year too early IMHO so its possible that he could make a dramatic leap this year.

25 - Damon Huard KC

26 - David Carr

27 - David Garrard

28 - *Brady Quinn

29 - Chris Simms

30 – Rex Grossman

31 - Tavararis Jackson

32 - John Kitna

33 - Steve McNair

34 - Jeff Garcia

35 – Jake Plummer

36 - Trent Green

Green is 38 coming off a year with a nasty injury and his replacement shined. Simms 'could' make a big move. Plummer would rise a dozen spots if he ends up starting for another team and I think that is a distinct possibility.

37 – Brian Griese

38 - Aaron Rodgers

39 - Charlie Frye

40 - Kurt Warner

41 - Joey Harrington

42 - Brad Johnson

43 – Drew Bledsoe

44 - Derek Anderson

45 - Kyle Boller

46 - Kerry Collins

47 - Mark Brunell

48 - Aaron Brooks

49 - Brodie Croyle

50 - Kellen Clemens

51 - Billy Volek

52 - Andrew Walters

Some will feel Frye is rated too low, I don't. I'm sure I'm missing some but this is based primarily off of my list from last August and the top two rookie QBs.

Other names that didn't fit, Patrick Ramsey, Charlie Batch, Chris Weinke, Gus Frerotte, Trent Dilfer, Seneca Wallace, Kelly Holcomb.

Deep sleepers not listed, Dan Orlovsky Detroit Lions, Cleo Lemmon Miami Dolphins, Todd Bouman/Ingle Martin Green Bay Packers, Luke McCowan/Bruce Gradkowski Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

***Again the aboive list is assuming Bret Favre is retired

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I posted my dynasty RB rankings and then tweaked the original list, see thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;#entry6193615

To the updated version:

January 16th 2007 early rendition already updated. Only including the top two +rookie RBs at this time. I break the list out in dozen's since many leagues are twelve owner and I like to look at players in segments of twelve to gauge how my team(s) stack in relation to other dynasty players. I also give some feedback at the end of each twelve player segment.

1 – Ladanian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers

2 t - Steven Jackson St. Louis Rams

2 t - Larry Johnson Kansas City Chiefs

4 - Frank Gore SF 49ers

5 - Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks

6 – Brian Westbrook Philadelphia Eagles

7 - Rudi Johnson Cincinati Bengals

8 - Willie Parker Steelers

9 - Ronnie Brown Miami Dolphins

10 - +Adrian Peterson ?

11 - Maurice Jones Drew Jacksonville

12 - Reggie Bush Saints

Top dozen. I think LJ and S-Jax are rubbing elbows. I don't have LJ above Jackson. LJ logging over 350 wasn't a big concern but surpassing 400 is. I own LJ so a mix of Jackson impressing and a mild concern over LJ knots up those two IMHO. I bumped down SA due to age but I couldn't move him out of the top five. AP declared and I think he's better than both MJD and Bush since I stand by Duece impacting Reggie from having top ten fantasy production for the next few years. I don't see AP sharing a backfield wherever he ends up.

13 - Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

14 – Joseph Addai Indy

15 - Kevin Jones Detroit Lions

16 - Lawrence Maroney Pats

17 - Chester Taylor Minny

18 - Willis McGahee Buffalo Bills

19 – Cedric Benson Chicago Bears

20 - DeAngelo Williams, Lina

21 - +Marshuan Lynch ?

22 - Deuce McAllister New Orleans Saints

23 - Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Bucs

24 - Michael Turner SD

I caved and bumped up Clinton. Had to move Willis down and I listened on Michael Turner and list him in the top 24. Caddy owners will not be pleased but I don't believe he warrants a move up.

25 - Brandon Jacobs NYG

26 - Thomas Jones, Chicago Bears

27 - Julius Jones Dallas Cowboys

28 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos

29 - Travis Henry Titans

30 - Ladell Betts Skins

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons

32 - Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys

33 - Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens

34 – Edge James Arizona

35 - Lendale White Titans

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville

The difficult dozen. I worked and reworked this section the most. Marion Barber moved up but still below Julius in my opinion. Jam takes a hit due to speculation the Ravens will make a change. Lendale should come in next year healthy a year of seasoning, if he matures he has potential to make a move up. Travis got a shot last year and made the most of it. Probably premature in moving Jacobs up but without Tiki he's the primary G-Men RB right now.

37 - Mike Bell Denver

38 - Warrick Dunn Falcons

39 - Ahman Green

40 – Lamont Jordan Oakland

41 - Reuben Droughns

42 - DeShuan Foster Lina

43 - Leon Washington NYJ

44 - Corey Dillion NE

45 - Justin Fargas OAK

46 - @Ricky Williams MIA

47 - Chris Brown Titans

48 - Ron Dayne Texans

DeShuan has DeAngelo gunning to be starter however the Carolina coaches have a history of being loyal to veteran incumbent RBs like Stephen Davis over DeShuan and last year Foster was able to keep his starter job even with DeAngelo flashing. Ricky Williams is the wild card that I can't omit or drop too far. Reports the Browns are interested in AP and Droughns could be moved back to FB.

49 - Dominic Rhodes Indy

50 - Chris Perry Bengals

51 - Cedric Houston NYJ

52 - Brian Calhoun Det

53 - Correll Buckhalter PHI

54 - Maurice Morris SEA

55 - Gregg Jones JAX

56 - Kevan Barlow NYJ

57 - Ryan Moats PHI

58 - Mike Anderson BAL

59 - Najeh Davenport PIT

60 - TJ Duckett WAS

Chris Perry is popular with some but I have never warmed up to him. Dom Rhodes is producing. Greg Jones was in fashion last year but injury and MJD sealed his fate. Calhoun and Moats are interesting and worth a flyer if you have roster room. Once the NFL draft clears up situations of other rookie RBs I'll take another stab at this. But after digesting feedback/criticism of the first draft I refined my dynasty RB rankings and feel much better where they are now..

So I'm sure their will be good criticism and I will more than likely mull it over and adjust accordingly.

 

[Bevo]

Just curious, how do you weight future years?

For example, when looking at dynasty I would probably weight 2007 at 70%, 2008 at 20%, and 2009 at 10%. You seem, from your rankings, to be giving a lot more value to future years, say 2009 and beyond, is that right?

 

[kupcho1]

Dynasty QB rankings updated January 23rd 2007

* rookies ***assumption Brett Farve retires

1 - Peyton Manning

2 - Carson Palmer

3 - Tom Brady

4 - Donovan McNabb

5 - Drew Brees

6 - Marc Bulger

7 - Phil Rivers

8 - Matt Hasselbeck

9 - Eli Manning

10 - Michael Vick

11 - Tony Romo

12 - Vince Young

Vince could move up a few notches but not right now.

13 - Jay Cutler

14 - Jake Delhomme

15 - Ben Roethlisberger

16 - Matt Lienart

17 - J.P. Losman

18 - Daunte Culpepper

19 - *JaMarcus Russell

20 - Alex Smith

21 - Bryon Leftwich

22 - Jason Cambell

23 - Matt Schaub

24 - Chad Pennington

This was the most difficult section. Cutler/Cambell rose quickly in my ranknigs. I warmed to Losman. Daunte is difficult, some have already buried him already and I think that is premature. Alex Smith has improved and he gets Mount Vernon back, he was a 21 year old Junior who came out a year too early IMHO so its possible that he could make a dramatic leap this year.

25 - Damon Huard KC

26 - David Carr

27 - David Garrard

28 - *Brady Quinn

29 - Chris Simms

30 – Rex Grossman

31 - Tavararis Jackson

32 - John Kitna

33 - Steve McNair

34 - Jeff Garcia

35 – Jake Plummer

36 - Trent Green

Green is 38 coming off a year with a nasty injury and his replacement shined. Simms 'could' make a big move. Plummer would rise a dozen spots if he ends up starting for another team and I think that is a distinct possibility.

37 – Brian Griese

38 - Aaron Rodgers

39 - Charlie Frye

40 - Kurt Warner

41 - Joey Harrington

42 - Brad Johnson

43 – Drew Bledsoe

44 - Derek Anderson

45 - Kyle Boller

46 - Kerry Collins

47 - Mark Brunell

48 - Aaron Brooks

49 - Brodie Croyle

50 - Kellen Clemens

51 - Billy Volek

52 - Andrew Walters

Some will feel Frye is rated too low, I don't. I'm sure I'm missing some but this is based primarily off of my list from last August and the top two rookie QBs.

Other names that didn't fit, Patrick Ramsey, Charlie Batch, Chris Weinke, Gus Frerotte, Trent Dilfer, Seneca Wallace, Kelly Holcomb.

Deep sleepers not listed, Dan Orlovsky Detroit Lions, Cleo Lemmon Miami Dolphins, Todd Bouman/Ingle Martin Green Bay Packers, Luke McCowan/Bruce Gradkowski Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

***Again the aboive list is assuming Bret Favre is retired

That Grossman ranking stands out as being far, far too low.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Just curious, how do you weight future years?For example, when looking at dynasty I would probably weight 2007 at 70%, 2008 at 20%, and 2009 at 10%. You seem, from your rankings, to be giving a lot more value to future years, say 2009 and beyond, is that right?

You are correct in that these are dynasty QB rankings where future years for rookies/younger QBs are weighted and on the other end of the spectrum are older/injured/non-starting QBs who have or may soon be passed over for starting consideration.I don't use a ridgid mathematical formula as that would be too constrictive for me but I think it is a good idea to use as an outline or as a side tool. Its difficult to guage how situations will change and this is how I see dynasty QB rankings at this point in time but I'm looking forward to feedback and getting other's perspectives too see if I had missed any names or if they have current information on situations that I am unaware of.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Dynasty QB rankings updated January 23rd 2007

... 13 - Jay Cutler

14 - Jake Delhomme

15 - Ben Roethlisberger

16 - Matt Lienart

17 - J.P. Losman

18 - Daunte Culpepper

19 - *JaMarcus Russell

20 - Alex Smith

21 - Bryon Leftwich

22 - Jason Cambell

23 - Matt Schaub

24 - Chad Pennington

This was the most difficult section. Cutler/Cambell rose quickly in my ranknigs. I warmed to Losman. Daunte is difficult, some have already buried him already and I think that is premature. Alex Smith has improved and he gets Mount Vernon back, he was a 21 year old Junior who came out a year too early IMHO so its possible that he could make a dramatic leap this year.

25 - Damon Huard KC

26 - David Carr

27 - David Garrard

28 - *Brady Quinn

29 - Chris Simms

30 – Rex Grossman

That Grossman ranking stands out as being far, far too low.

I've got three issues with Rex:1. His two first years ending up on IR has red flagged him as a possible gimp puppy

2. Consistency

3. Cofidence

For me it boils down to #3 and that will be determined by the Super Bowl. He's under enormous pressure. The Bears scaled back the game plan in the NFC Championship game but if the game goes into his hands and he fails then it could damage his confidence so I don't think he's ranked too low or too high at this point.

 

[Warhogs]

I will comment on a few of these guys. I don't have many large issues with your rankings but I would go a bit differently on some of these....

Leinart (16) - Probably close but I think he has much higher upside than a few of the guys above him. He has great weapons and looked pretty good in 2006 and I just feel that while his ranking is close he is in a nice position to greatly outproduce this ranking.

Shaub (23) - As of now he is still a backup and is a pretty large unknown. Seems a bit too high a ranking.

Grossman (30) - I'm not a big fan but this does seem a lot low. Inconsistent, but a starting QB who is still very young.

Kitna (32) - I agree that he may not have long term potential but he was a very good QB this year for fantasy football. I would take him before several names you have ranked above him.

McNair (33) - I think he still has a few years left and he is a very safe pick. Obviously you are not giving Kitna and McNair more than another season.

Frye (39) - I think he has to still be the favorite to start in Cleveland next year. He is young and has played OK. He is about 10 spots too low for me.

 

[Bevo]

Just curious, how do you weight future years?For example, when looking at dynasty I would probably weight 2007 at 70%, 2008 at 20%, and 2009 at 10%. You seem, from your rankings, to be giving a lot more value to future years, say 2009 and beyond, is that right?

You are correct in that these are dynasty QB rankings where future years for rookies/younger QBs are weighted and on the other end of the spectrum are older/injured/non-starting QBs who have or may soon be passed over for starting consideration.I don't use a ridgid mathematical formula as that would be too constrictive for me but I think it is a good idea to use as an outline or as a side tool. Its difficult to guage how situations will change and this is how I see dynasty QB rankings at this point in time but I'm looking forward to feedback and getting other's perspectives too see if I had missed any names or if they have current information on situations that I am unaware of.

Several rankings sort of stood out to me. Just to pick one out I will take a look at Kitna.Yes, he is getting older and that is a downside, although age doesn't seem to be quite as much of a factor at QB as it does at some other positions like RB. So he gets dinged because he could have a rapid fall off due to age.However he appears to have several upsides. Mike Martz offense. He is apparently set to be the QB next year. He did really well from a fantasy viewpoint this last year (my standard scoring, no ppr, dynasty league had him at #5). Barring the Lions spending a high draft pick on a QB this year he seems fairly safe to be the starter for the next 2 years. Of course if the Lions do get a Russell or Quinn then Kitna's days as a starter may be numbered.Just seems to me that #32 is not only too low for him, but low by at least 8 - 12 slots and maybe more.

 

[Couch Potato]

A little spelling help:

Leinart

Campbell

Tarvaris

Walter

Lemon

McCown

You're welcome.

Concerning Favre -- wouldn't it make more sense to assume he isn't retired until it happens, and adjust rankings then?

Concerning some of the rankings, I'm seeing sort of a mish-mash without a lot of consistency in outlook. Bracie, I applaud posting your rankings, but dynasty rankings need to reflect total future anticipated fantasy points, in whatever way you choose to weigh future years' production and how many future years you choose to reflect.

For example, I'm having a hard time with Schaub at #23 vs. Clemens at #49 and Croyle at #50. Schaub is not a starter now and has no assurance of being a starter in 2007. If he does become one, we don't know where it'll be or who his receivers will be. All we really do know is that he's been just decent in ATL. Compare this to Clemens and Croyle, who are in about the same situation as Schaub except we do know they are in line for starting jobs sooner rather than later with their current teams and systems. Campbell last year was in this exact situation, yet he's ranked at #22 now that he's a starter. Does getting the start jump someone from #49 to #22? I think in dynasty rankings, one has to be more anticipatory than that. You've done that with Schaub at #23 though... too anticipatory with Schaub, not enough with the other guys IMO.

I see similar incongruities in your rankings elsewhere. If I offer you #25-ranked 34 year old Damon Huard for Tarvaris Jackson, are you going to make that deal? Trent Green at #36 is nearly done. I give him 1/2 season (think 2006 Brunell or Warner). You'd own him ahead of Croyle, who has a decade of starts ahead of him? Or 37 year old Garcia at #34 ahead of young future starters and a current one (Frye), when he may return as McNabb's backup (and if he doesn't, where will he start and for how long?). Warner at #40 is now a career backup and won't play again unless Leinart is injured. Brad Johnson at 42 -- may as well be 142, he's done as a starter - same thing. So why have these guys ahead of QBs with at least a chance at a future like #44 Derek Anderson, #45 Kyle Boller, #52 Andrew Walter, or the afore-mentioned Clemens and Croyle?

I'd recommend taking a step back and considering for each player -

1) Age

2) Current role

3) Current/anticipated skill level going forward

4) Anticipated role and team in 2007

5) Possible alternative role and likelihood of that in 2007

5) Anticipated role and team in 2008

6) Anticipated role and team in 2009 and beyond

Reflect total future anticipated fantasy points using the above and I think you'll get better rankings.

 

[Couch Potato]

One more comment on the rankings - Jake Delhomme will be through as starter after 2008 IMO. I'd have him much lower than #14. Odd that you have Kitna at #32 given his production and the fact that these two are probably in about the same situation.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I will comment on a few of these guys. I don't have many large issues with your rankings but I would go a bit differently on some of these....Leinart (16) - Probably close but I think he has much higher upside than a few of the guys above him. He has great weapons and looked pretty good in 2006 and I just feel that while his ranking is close he is in a nice position to greatly outproduce this ranking.

I felt the criticism would come from the other side with Lienart and that those who feel he is ranked too high over a proven vet would lobby the opposite argument. I have the Elway perspective with top QB prospects. I favor better athletes who have not developed their football games yet and feel they will retain most of their athletic skill and eventually develop their game. Lienart is more advanced with the best supporting cast but I feel the arm of Cutler and legs/big play ability of Young, hold an edge because I think that they can develop their game and will still have an athletic edge.

Shaub (23) - As of now he is still a backup and is a pretty large unknown. Seems a bit too high a ranking.

That is fair. I had him ranked higher as I think I things are in motion in the A-T-L to change his starting status. I think he'll either end up starting with Vick being moved which doesn't look likely due to cap considerations, or that he'll be moved and end up starting somewhere else but he's unproven so your criticism is valid on that account.

Grossman (30) - I'm not a big fan but this does seem a lot low. Inconsistent, but a starting QB who is still very young.

I had explained above but will emphasize that I have him ranked here at this point in time, i.e., before the SB. I think his performance in the SB is huge to how his career plays out because it will effect his confidence one way or the other and I think its possible he has a really bad game and Bill Buckner's himself out of Chi-Town.

Kitna (32) - I agree that he may not have long term potential but he was a very good QB this year for fantasy football. I would take him before several names you have ranked above him.

For some reason I had an inkling that Martz was high on one of his backups and might open up competition this offseason so I'm prolly wrong and you're prolly correct so I'll take another look at Kitna who I have liked in the past.

McNair (33) - I think he still has a few years left and he is a very safe pick. Obviously you are not giving Kitna and McNair more than another season.

Not so much thinking that with McNair. I think he's got a few more left but he's not only older and hasn't been a big scorer lately in leagues I've been in but he has had injury issues in the past which is not a good combination with age so I weighted him lower.

Frye (39) - I think he has to still be the favorite to start in Cleveland next year. He is young and has played OK. He is about 10 spots too low for me.

I'm a big Browns fan, I have studied Charlie's long term ability and came to my conclusion on him. I think the dye has been cast for 2007 to be Frye's swan song season as the front office either drafts a top prospect and gives Charlie the first half of next year or they bring in a legit veteran QB who should outright beat Frye in training camp. He showed no improvement, had no big games, his QB passer rating went down from his rookie season, he's been the triggerman on the 32nd and 30th ranked scoring offenses over the last two years, he has a turnover streak of 15 games either throwing an interception or fumbling the ball away going back to 05. Frye has some skills but I see his skill set not being good enough to be a starter, he's more suited to be a backup than a starting NFL QB in my humble opinion.

 

[cstu]

Romo at #11 with 2 aging WR's and uncertain coach? He's at least 5 spots too high.

 

[aposulli]

Romo at #11 with 2 aging WR's and uncertain coach? He's at least 5 spots too high.

Please swap Leinart with Romo ASAP

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Concerning Favre -- wouldn't it make more sense to assume he isn't retired until it happens, and adjust rankings then?

It would if I thought he was coming back.

... I'm having a hard time with Schaub at #23 vs. Clemens at #49 and Croyle at #50. Schaub is not a starter now and has no assurance of being a starter in 2007. If he does become one, we don't know where it'll be or who his receivers will be. All we really do know is that he's been just decent in ATL. Compare this to Clemens and Croyle, who are in about the same situation as Schaub except we do know they are in line for starting jobs sooner rather than later with their current teams and systems. Campbell last year was in this exact situation, yet he's ranked at #22 now that he's a starter. Does getting the start jump someone from #49 to #22? I think in dynasty rankings, one has to be more anticipatory than that. You've done that with Schaub at #23 though... too anticipatory with Schaub, not enough with the other guys IMO.

Schaub has already survived and made it as a backup. The two second tier project QBs taken after the first round from last year got their one-year honeymoon. Schaub has also produced on the field and interest from other teams off the field, something neither Clemons nor Croyle have done. Cambell had been in the league for a few years and was a first round pick, he also has what I percieve to be an athletic edge with upside.

... I offer you #25-ranked 34 year old Damon Huard for Tarvaris Jackson, are you going to make that deal? Trent Green at #36 is nearly done. I give him 1/2 season (think 2006 Brunell or Warner). You'd own him ahead of Croyle, who has a decade of starts ahead of him? Or 37 year old Garcia at #34 ahead of young future starters and a current one (Frye), when he may return as McNabb's backup (and if he doesn't, where will he start and for how long?). Warner at #40 is now a career backup and won't play again unless Leinart is injured. Brad Johnson at 42 -- may as well be 142, he's done as a starter - same thing. So why have these guys ahead of QBs with at least a chance at a future like #44 Derek Anderson, #45 Kyle Boller, #52 Andrew Walter, or the afore-mentioned Clemens and Croyle?

Huard came in and played exceptionally well. Tavaris has flashed and he should get a shot but he hasn't produced as has Huard. Croyle has done nothing yet and he may end up backing up Huard in the next year or so. Garcia was 6-1 as a starter, won a playoff game, opened up a bit of a QB controversy over an injured starter. He has shown he is a viable starter in a WC system where he had been a Pro Bowler and had directed past teams to the post season. You may be right on Brad Johnson having a fork put in him. Derek Anderson is not a leader, Boller has had a number of chances. Walter hasn't shown any justification to rank him ahead of a proven QB IMHO.

... One more comment on the rankings - Jake Delhomme will be through as starter after 2008 IMO. I'd have him much lower than #14. Odd that you have Kitna at #32 given his production and the fact that these two are probably in about the same situation.

Kitna is not 32 as someone had previously reported but 35. Delhome has directed his team to the SB and is the starter. Wienke looked horrible when Jake went down.

 

[-OZ-]

I will comment on a few of these guys. I don't have many large issues with your rankings but I would go a bit differently on some of these....Leinart (16) - Probably close but I think he has much higher upside than a few of the guys above him. He has great weapons and looked pretty good in 2006 and I just feel that while his ranking is close he is in a nice position to greatly outproduce this ranking.

I felt the criticism would come from the other side with Lienart and that those who feel he is ranked too high over a proven vet would lobby the opposite argument. I have the Elway perspective with top QB prospects. I favor better athletes who have not developed their football games yet and feel they will retain most of their athletic skill and eventually develop their game. Lienart is more advanced with the best supporting cast but I feel the arm of Cutler and legs/big play ability of Young, hold an edge because I think that they can develop their game and will still have an athletic edge.

Too high? He's already a top 20 QB in redrafts, if not higher. I won't argue about how you rank VY, Cutler, and Leinart, but they should be in the same tier. I agree with Aposulli, swap Romo and Leinart. I personally would then seperate the top 10 into one tier, 11-24 in the 2nd.

 

[Bevo]

Kitna is not 32 as someone had previously reported but 35.

I think people are referring to your ranking of 32 not that Kitna is 32 years of age.

 

[Couch Potato]

Garcia was 6-1 as a starter, won a playoff game, opened up a bit of a QB controversy over an injured starter.

The two second tier project QBs taken after the first round from last year got their one-year honeymoon.

Thanks for the replies Bracie. I have to say that we're not in agreement on a whole lot and clearly have differing perspectives in what to look at when projecting forward, but best of luck to you.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... I felt the criticism would come from the other side with Lienart and that those who feel he is ranked too high over a proven vet would lobby the opposite argument. I have the Elway perspective with top QB prospects. I favor better athletes who have not developed their football games yet and feel they will retain most of their athletic skill and eventually develop their game. Lienart is more advanced with the best supporting cast but I feel the arm of Cutler and legs/big play ability of Young, hold an edge because I think that they can develop their game and will still have an athletic edge.

Too high? He's already a top 20 QB in redrafts, if not higher.

I have Lienart in the top twenty1 - Peyton Manning

2 - Carson Palmer

3 - Tom Brady

4 - Donovan McNabb

5 - Drew Brees

6 - Marc Bulger

7 - Phil Rivers

8 - Matt Hasselbeck

9 - Eli Manning

10 - Michael Vick

11 - Tony Romo

12 - Vince Young

Vince could move up a few notches but not right now.

13 - Jay Cutler

14 - Jake Delhomme

15 - Ben Roethlisberger

16 - Matt Lienart

I won't argue about how you rank VY, Cutler, and Leinart, but they should be in the same tier.

I have my rankings broken out in dozens as explained in the dynasty RB thread above as most leagues are have 12 teams so when I break rankings into dozens to more easily see where players I am interested in fit in context of a typical league. Also I weight athletic ability with more upside which is reflected in my rankings so that may be where you have a disagreement. Since I wieght athletic ability more on upside I would not place Lienart above VY or Cutler.

I agree with Aposulli, swap Romo and Leinart. I personally would then seperate the top 10 into one tier, 11-24 in the 2nd.

I adjusted my RB rankings after taking in suggestions after a week to digest suggestions before making any adjustments. I will point out why I had Romo ranked so high.

- Sean Payton said he first wanted to go after Tony before he went after Brees but knew he'd never be able to get him away from Dallas so he gave up and went after Brees.

- Romo has been in the league for a few years under the tutledge of one of the better QB coaches.

- Unquestioned starter

- Solid supporting cast

- He simply does things better than Lienart

I see him as better than any rookie because he has had a breakout season which was forseen by Sean Payton and the Cowboy organization who weren't about to part with him. Young prospective QBs come in with the assumption that they will get to the Romo stage. I think Romo is further along and that is why I have him a scoatch in front of the young guys in the top dozen. My opinion/perspective is that Romo is like a prospect of the Lienart skill level but he is a year or two ahead of Matt. So even if you disagree with me that Romo is akin to Lienart you can appreciate how Matt Lienart in a year or two would be ranked higher than ML today and that is my thinknig on why I have Romo ranked higher.

 

[-OZ-]

... I felt the criticism would come from the other side with Lienart and that those who feel he is ranked too high over a proven vet would lobby the opposite argument. I have the Elway perspective with top QB prospects. I favor better athletes who have not developed their football games yet and feel they will retain most of their athletic skill and eventually develop their game. Lienart is more advanced with the best supporting cast but I feel the arm of Cutler and legs/big play ability of Young, hold an edge because I think that they can develop their game and will still have an athletic edge.

Too high? He's already a top 20 QB in redrafts, if not higher.

I have Lienart in the top twenty

I know, what I'm saying is when a rookie QB is in the top 20, nobody should argue that #16 is too high in a dynasty league.

I won't argue about how you rank VY, Cutler, and Leinart, but they should be in the same tier.

Also I weight athletic ability with more upside which is reflected in my rankings so that may be where you have a disagreement. Since I wieght athletic ability more on upside I would not place Lienart above VY or Cutler.

This is where reasonable people can disagree. I'll take a better passer who gets Boldin and Fitzgerald, along with Whisenhunt and Grimm, over a more athletic QB with Brandon Jones and (maybe) Drew Bennet, and Chow / Fisher. If your argument is athleticism, would you want Michael Vick instead of Peyton Manning? I know Leinart is not Peyton, but the analogy stands.

Cutler does have more upside and a darn good supporting cast, so I flip a coin with those two.

I have my rankings broken out in dozens as explained in the dynasty RB thread above as most leagues are have 12 teams so when I break rankings into dozens to more easily see where players I am interested in fit in context of a typical league.

I see. Missed that part of the RB thread. I use tiers differently, as I put those QBs I consider relatively equal in one tier. It helps me to see where I want to draft someone. If there's 5 QBs left in one tier, but only 1 or 2 WRs, I generally would go WR. It also helps me evaluate trades.

I will point out why I had Romo ranked so high.

- Sean Payton said he first wanted to go after Tony before he went after Brees but knew he'd never be able to get him away from Dallas so he gave up and went after Brees.

- Romo has been in the league for a few years under the tutledge of one of the better QB coaches.

- Unquestioned starter

- Solid supporting cast

- He simply does things better than Lienart

I see him as better than any rookie because he has had a breakout season which was forseen by Sean Payton and the Cowboy organization who weren't about to part with him. Young prospective QBs come in with the assumption that they will get to the Romo stage. I think Romo is further along and that is why I have him a scoatch in front of the young guys in the top dozen. My opinion/perspective is that Romo is like a prospect of the Lienart skill level but he is a year or two ahead of Matt. So even if you disagree with me that Romo is akin to Lienart you can appreciate how Matt Lienart in a year or two would be ranked higher than ML today and that is my thinknig on why I have Romo ranked higher.

I won't disagree, Romo has a bright future. I'm just not convinced that he should be more valuable than the 3 rookies. Again, reasonable minds differ.

 

[JMon348]

My Dynasty QB Rankings:

1.Peyton Manning

2.Carson Palmer

3.Tom Brady

4.Marc Bulger

5.Matt Leinart

6.Michael Vick

7.Donovan McNabb

8.Drew Brees

9.Eli Manning

10. Vince Young

11. Matt Hasselbeck

12. Jay Cutler

13.Ben Roethlisberger

14.Tony Romo

15.Phillip Rivers

16.Matt Schaub

17.Daunte Culpepper

18.Byron Leftwich

19.Jamarcus Russell

20.Alex Smith

21.Jason Campbell

22.Jake Delhomme

23.Tarvaris Jackson

24.Chad Pennington

25.David Carr

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Just curious, how do you weight future years?For example, when looking at dynasty I would probably weight 2007 at 70%, 2008 at 20%, and 2009 at 10%. You seem, from your rankings, to be giving a lot more value to future years, say 2009 and beyond, is that right?

You are correct in that these are dynasty QB rankings where future years for rookies/younger QBs are weighted and on the other end of the spectrum are older/injured/non-starting QBs who have or may soon be passed over for starting consideration.I don't use a ridgid mathematical formula as that would be too constrictive for me but I think it is a good idea to use as an outline or as a side tool. Its difficult to guage how situations will change and this is how I see dynasty QB rankings at this point in time but I'm looking forward to feedback and getting other's perspectives too see if I had missed any names or if they have current information on situations that I am unaware of.

Several rankings sort of stood out to me. Just to pick one out I will take a look at Kitna.Yes, he is getting older and that is a downside, although age doesn't seem to be quite as much of a factor at QB as it does at some other positions like RB. So he gets dinged because he could have a rapid fall off due to age.However he appears to have several upsides. Mike Martz offense. He is apparently set to be the QB next year. He did really well from a fantasy viewpoint this last year (my standard scoring, no ppr, dynasty league had him at #5). Barring the Lions spending a high draft pick on a QB this year he seems fairly safe to be the starter for the next 2 years. Of course if the Lions do get a Russell or Quinn then Kitna's days as a starter may be numbered.Just seems to me that #32 is not only too low for him, but low by at least 8 - 12 slots and maybe more.

I have him as much higher.He's also pretty cheap for a few years to come.Even if the Lions buck the trend and don't draft a WR, shocking the world by drafting a QB, I would think that they let him learn from a vet and hold a clipboard for 2-3 years. Old school, I know, but believe it or not it does work.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

My Dynasty QB Rankings:1.Peyton Manning2.Carson Palmer3.Tom Brady4.Marc Bulger5.Matt Leinart6.Michael Vick7.Donovan McNabb8.Drew Brees9.Eli Manning10. Vince Young11. Matt Hasselbeck12. Jay Cutler13.Ben Roethlisberger14.Tony Romo (seems high)15.Phillip Rivers 16.Matt Schaub (WAY high)17.Daunte Culpepper (tough one to rank)18.Byron Leftwich (where's he playing?)19.Jamarcus Russell 20.Alex Smith21.Jason Campbell (low)22.Jake Delhomme 23.Tarvaris Jackson (also low)24.Chad Pennington25.David Carr (high - could be cut / out due to Plummer coming)

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Dynasty QB rankings updated January 23rd 2007

* rookies ***assumption Brett Farve retires

1 - Peyton Manning

2 - Carson Palmer

3 - Tom Brady

4 - Donovan McNabb

5 - Drew Brees

6 - Marc Bulger

7 - Phil Rivers

8 - Matt Hasselbeck

9 - Eli Manning

10 - Michael Vick

11 - Tony Romo

12 - Vince Young

Vince could move up a few notches but not right now.

13 - Jay Cutler

14 - Jake Delhomme

15 - Ben Roethlisberger

16 - Matt Lienart

17 - J.P. Losman

18 - Daunte Culpepper

19 - *JaMarcus Russell

20 - Alex Smith

21 - Bryon Leftwich

22 - Jason Cambell

23 - Matt Schaub

24 - Chad Pennington

This was the most difficult section. Cutler/Cambell rose quickly in my ranknigs. I warmed to Losman. Daunte is difficult, some have already buried him already and I think that is premature. Alex Smith has improved and he gets Mount Vernon back, he was a 21 year old Junior who came out a year too early IMHO so its possible that he could make a dramatic leap this year.

25 - Damon Huard KC

26 - David Carr

27 - David Garrard

28 - *Brady Quinn

29 - Chris Simms

30 – Rex Grossman

31 - Tavararis Jackson

32 - John Kitna

33 - Steve McNair

34 - Jeff Garcia

35 – Jake Plummer

36 - Trent Green

Green is 38 coming off a year with a nasty injury and his replacement shined. Simms 'could' make a big move. Plummer would rise a dozen spots if he ends up starting for another team and I think that is a distinct possibility.

37 – Brian Griese

38 - Aaron Rodgers

39 - Charlie Frye

40 - Kurt Warner

41 - Joey Harrington

42 - Brad Johnson

43 – Drew Bledsoe

44 - Derek Anderson

45 - Kyle Boller

46 - Kerry Collins

47 - Mark Brunell

48 - Aaron Brooks

49 - Brodie Croyle

50 - Kellen Clemens

51 - Billy Volek

52 - Andrew Walters

Some will feel Frye is rated too low, I don't. I'm sure I'm missing some but this is based primarily off of my list from last August and the top two rookie QBs.

Other names that didn't fit, Patrick Ramsey, Charlie Batch, Chris Weinke, Gus Frerotte, Trent Dilfer, Seneca Wallace, Kelly Holcomb.

Deep sleepers not listed, Dan Orlovsky Detroit Lions, Cleo Lemmon Miami Dolphins, Todd Bouman/Ingle Martin Green Bay Packers, Luke McCowan/Bruce Gradkowski Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

***Again the aboive list is assuming Bret Favre is retired

General thoughts:Romo's too high.

Delhomme may have a shorter leash than you think, but ok rank.

Leinart seems low. When you pick him, you also get Boldin and Fitz.

Huard??

Rex, Tarv and Kitna are very low.

Brad Johnson, Mark Brunell, and Kerry Collins don't even deserve placement on the list, IMO.

Seneca Wallace has upside.

Oh, and Gradkowski's awful.

 

[-OZ-]

Seneca Wallace has upside.

Is he a FA this year? If so, I suspect Arizona will make a play for him. obviously not as a starting QB, but Whisenhunt will like what he can bring to the offense. There may be others in the draft with a similar skill set if Wallace wants a chance to start or is expensive.

 

[Couch Potato]

Seneca Wallace has upside.

Is he a FA this year? If so, I suspect Arizona will make a play for him. obviously not as a starting QB, but Whisenhunt will like what he can bring to the offense. There may be others in the draft with a similar skill set if Wallace wants a chance to start or is expensive.

No, he signed an extension in preseason this year, through 2007.http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...=NFL&id=503

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... If your argument is athleticism, would you want Michael Vick instead of Peyton Manning? I know Leinart is not Peyton, but the analogy stands.

I'm sure everyone's model for evaluating players is more complex than atheleticism VS football knowledge but I'll expand a bit more on what I had said.

For veteran QB comparisons their known production helps frame future expectations.

For rookie QB expectations, I weight athleticism to increased upside but see the explanation. My explanation was the expectation is that a QB's athletic production would remain constant as they develop football knowledge leading to increased football production so the production gleaned on the strength of their athleticism would remain constant and upside would be based off of expected football development.

Vick/Manning comparison, football development expectation of Mike Vick did not materialize. Consistant athletic production but poor QB development/football production. Even without the upside of football production I expect Vick to remain a consistent fantasy producer.

Lienart will need time to get to the point Romo is at. Good prospect, lacking superior athletic skills/athletic production. If an athletic QB fails to develop they can still produce ALA Michael Vick.

I put those QBs I consider relatively equal in one tier. It helps me to see where I want to draft someone. If there's 5 QBs left in one tier, but only 1 or 2 WRs, I generally would go WR. It also helps me evaluate trades.

When evaluating any potential trade I do that along with many other things but I was ranking dynasty players.

... I won't disagree, Romo has a bright future. I'm just not convinced that he should be more valuable than the 3 rookies. Again, reasonable minds differ.

Upside is another way of saying, a future point in time until someone produces. A veteran QB contributes now in ways that a rookie will not till a future point in time. The law of diminishing returns kicks in somewhere in that the player does not produce now and you can't wait or it adversely impacts your current need.

The related topic is position building in the context of a fantasy team building for maximum impact.

Team building has the goal of optimal production both now and in the future to maintain steady production from all positions. The best mix to build the QB position might have, a vet producing now, a consistent/dependable QB to plug in for byes/injuries, and a developmental prospect or two for attaining impact in the future.

The supporting cast point that you brought up is valid. Dallas, TO, Terry Glenn, Witten, pair of RBs. Both offensive lines are sketchy. Zona has, Anquan, Fitzy, Edge, so it looks a near push on supporting cast at this time but you were refering to the long term supporting cast based on the yute of Zona's WRs.

I feel supporting cast is most crucial to a QB in their development stage. My reasoning is that a developing QB with a poor supporting cast is more difficult to judge. If problems arise or if increased production emerges for a veteran QB people look at the supporting cast/coaches/system for clues as to what caused the change. For rookie QBs blame for problems could unjustly be blamed on the supporting cast when in reality the blame may be a poor QB play. So I feel Romo has already passed crucial developmental stages and I also feel Lienart has a great supporting cast to help him develop and your point of the long range aspect is valid but my opinion is that a strong supporting cast is most crucial for helping to develop a QB prospect. After the crucial developmental stage a superior supporting cast is gravy but I'm talking in context of developing a QB prospect and you are talking in context of long term fantasy production based off of supporting cast. I just felt the point I was making has more long term significance to a QB prospect and never gets mentioned.