What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

So whats the spread (1 Viewer)

Hard to imagine that the defending Superbowl champs, who haven't lost in 15 straight games and will be playing at home will be double-digit dogs.

 
zoonation said:
Hard to imagine that the defending Superbowl champs, who haven't lost in 15 straight games and will be playing at home will be double-digit dogs.
Click to expand...
Exactly. It frankly unthinkable, and yet, if it's less than 10, there is going to be a tidal wave of bets on the Patriots. Just MASSIVE.
 
I wouldn't lay anything more than a field goal. NE and Indy are playing as well right now as any 2 teams have over the past 20 years.

 
Unless I'm mistaken, New England hasn't faced a true Cover-2 defense so far this year. Dungy's Cover-2 is specifically designed to prevent the big play downfield. Everything, in theory, should stay in front of the deep safties. Now I'm not saying this will stop (or even slow down) the Pats. But when looking at the game from a betting perspective, I believe that Indy will represent a strong value play on the money line, assuming that Pats are favored by around 5. If you can take Indy straight up, grabbing +130 or so, I'd roll the dice with that. Harrison had an extra week to heel up, so the Colts will also be a handful to shut down.

I should be able to track down an official number on this game in a few minutes.

 
zoonation said:
Hard to imagine that the defending Superbowl champs, who haven't lost in 15 straight games and will be playing at home will be double-digit dogs.
Click to expand...
I don't know about the last part - "and will be playing at home will be double-digit dogs" - but the rest is certainly mind-boggling! :lol:
 
Pats -9.5

I really don't think Indy will be in the game quite frankly. I see the game being 41-21 Pats

 
Last edited by a moderator:
RAIDERNATION said:
Unless I'm mistaken, New England hasn't faced a true Cover-2 defense so far this year. Dungy's Cover-2 is specifically designed to prevent the big play downfield. Everything, in theory, should stay in front of the deep safties. Now I'm not saying this will stop (or even slow down) the Pats. But when looking at the game from a betting perspective, I believe that Indy will represent a strong value play on the money line, assuming that Pats are favored by around 5. If you can take Indy straight up, grabbing +130 or so, I'd roll the dice with that. Harrison had an extra week to heel up, so the Colts will also be a handful to shut down.

I should be able to track down an official number on this game in a few minutes.
Click to expand...
You are mistaken. Washington is a true Cover-2 Def, and NE ripped them a new one today.
 
RAIDERNATION said:
Okay, it's out.N.E. -3 (-140)Indy 56½Source: Olympic (www.thegreek.com)
Click to expand...
Translation: the books are scared. If they put it at 2.5, they will get 90% N.E. action. If they put it at 3.5, the Colts can lose AT HOME by a field goal, and Indy backers still get paid. "-140" means that you have to lay $140 on the Pats to win $100. You normally have to lay only $110 to return $100. This is their way of protecting themselves, but it could still cost them a lot of money if the Pats keep crushing.
 
RAIDERNATION said:
RAIDERNATION said:
Okay, it's out.N.E. -3 (-140)Indy 56½Source: Olympic (www.thegreek.com)
Click to expand...
Translation: the books are scared. If they put it at 2.5, they will get 90% N.E. action. If they put it at 3.5, the Colts can lose AT HOME by a field goal, and Indy backers still get paid. "-140" means that you have to lay $140 on the Pats to win $100. You normally have to lay only $110 to return $100. This is their way of protecting themselves, but it could still cost them a lot of money if the Pats keep crushing.
Click to expand...
I don't think -3 -140 will be the most common line. -140 is not something a lot of books put out. I'd expect to see a lot of 3.5s and 4s with -110.
 
PahtyTom said:
RAIDERNATION said:
RAIDERNATION said:
Okay, it's out.N.E. -3 (-140)Indy 56½Source: Olympic (www.thegreek.com)
Click to expand...
Translation: the books are scared. If they put it at 2.5, they will get 90% N.E. action. If they put it at 3.5, the Colts can lose AT HOME by a field goal, and Indy backers still get paid. "-140" means that you have to lay $140 on the Pats to win $100. You normally have to lay only $110 to return $100. This is their way of protecting themselves, but it could still cost them a lot of money if the Pats keep crushing.
Click to expand...
I don't think -3 -140 will be the most common line. -140 is not something a lot of books put out. I'd expect to see a lot of 3.5s and 4s with -110.
Click to expand...
Sure, it's just what they felt comfortable opening with. Once they get a feel, it's gonna rise.
 
The shark play here is to get the best Patriots line you can at -110 and take the Colts late on Sunday. There will be at least a one point gap on this game.

 
Pats -4 seems to be about where this will start. It may move a bit, but I'm leaning towards taking the points right now which will offset a few of you NE bettors.

 
RAIDERNATION said:
Unless I'm mistaken, New England hasn't faced a true Cover-2 defense so far this year. Dungy's Cover-2 is specifically designed to prevent the big play downfield. Everything, in theory, should stay in front of the deep safties. Now I'm not saying this will stop (or even slow down) the Pats. But when looking at the game from a betting perspective, I believe that Indy will represent a strong value play on the money line, assuming that Pats are favored by around 5. If you can take Indy straight up, grabbing +130 or so, I'd roll the dice with that. Harrison had an extra week to heel up, so the Colts will also be a handful to shut down.I should be able to track down an official number on this game in a few minutes.
Click to expand...
did you watch the washington D today?everything they did was designed to prevent the big play
 
Raptors said:
Pats -4 seems to be about where this will start. It may move a bit, but I'm leaning towards taking the points right now which will offset a few of you NE bettors.
Click to expand...
If I had to pick, I'd take the points but I'm a Pats fan so that's not going to happen. Either way, I think there are much better opportunities every week than betting against New England or Indy.
 
PahtyTom said:
Raptors said:
Pats -4 seems to be about where this will start. It may move a bit, but I'm leaning towards taking the points right now which will offset a few of you NE bettors.
Click to expand...
If I had to pick, I'd take the points but I'm a Pats fan so that's not going to happen. Either way, I think there are much better opportunities every week than betting against New England or Indy.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but as an Indy fan I can't resist getting points in the Dome.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Kuz
Game predictor article
Replies
6
Views
274
Dizzy
Dizzy
Joe Bryant
America's Favorite Fantasy Football Myth
Replies
16
Views
590
Leroy Hoard
Leroy Hoard
3nOut
2025 Bold Predictions
2 3
Replies
102
Views
5K
Rubi
R

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top