Chase Stuart
Footballguy
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=263
Anytime I hear a stat like “Eli Manning was 5th in the NFL in passing yards in 2005″, the first question that comes to my mind is “Well, where did he rank in pass attempts?” If you rank higher in pass attempts than passing yards, it’s going to be difficult to impress me by throwing for lots of yards; it means at least one person threw for more yards on fewer passes.
I was wondering what percentage of league leaders in a particular statistic (say, passing yards) also ranked first in opportunities (in this case, pass attempts). I was also curious which players had led the league while ranking the lowest in opportunities.
Here’s the full list of the 37 QBs to lead the post-merger NFL in passing yards in a single season. The first column shows where each QB ranked in pass attempts that season.
7 2001 Kurt Warner7 1983 Lynn Dickey7 1974 Ken Anderson7 1972 Joe Namath6 1976 Bert Jones5 2006 Drew Brees4 2005 Tom Brady4 1997 Jeff George4 1995 Brett Favre4 1979 Dan Fouts4 1970 John Brodie3 2000 Peyton Manning2 2004 Daunte Culpepper2 2003 Peyton Manning2 1999 Steve Beuerlein2 1998 Brett Favre2 1996 Mark Brunell2 1985 Dan Marino2 1982 Dan Fouts2 1975 Ken Anderson1 2002 Rich Gannon1 1994 Drew Bledsoe1 1993 John Elway1 1992 Dan Marino1 1991 Warren Moon1 1990 Warren Moon1 1989 Don Majkowski1 1988 Dan Marino1 1987 Neil Lomax1 1986 Dan Marino1 1984 Dan Marino1 1981 Dan Fouts1 1980 Dan Fouts1 1978 Fran Tarkenton1 1977 Joe Ferguson1 1973 Roman Gabriel1 1971 John HadlTo me, the accomplishments of Warner, Dickey, Anderson and Namath did is much more impressive than when Fouts or Moon led the league in passing attempts. I’m not saying you should throw for the most yards in the NFL when you pass more often than anyone else, just that it’s less impressive when you do. Slightly fewer than half (17 of 37) of the league leaders in passing yards also led the league in atempts that season.We can look at the same numbers for running backs, just using rushing yards and rush attempts.
9 1982 Freeman McNeil8t 1996 Barry Sanders6 1993 Emmitt Smith6 1990 Barry Sanders5 2001 Priest Holmes4 1997 Barry Sanders4 1994 Barry Sanders3 1984 Eric Dickerson3 1978 Earl Campbell3 1976 O.J. Simpson3 1974 Otis Armstrong2 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson2 2003 Jamal Lewis2 2000 Edgerrin James2 1998 Terrell Davis2 1992 Emmitt Smith2 1985 Marcus Allen2 1979 Earl Campbell2 1972 O.J. Simpson2 1970 Larry Brown1 2005 Shaun Alexander1 2004 Curtis Martin1 2002 Ricky Williams1 1999 Edgerrin James1 1995 Emmitt Smith1 1991 Emmitt Smith1 1989 Christian Okoye1 1988 Eric Dickerson1 1987 Charles White1 1986 Eric Dickerson1 1983 Eric Dickerson1 1981 George Rogers1 1980 Earl Campbell1 1977 Walter Payton1 1975 O.J. Simpson1 1973 O.J. Simpson1 1971 Floyd LittleOnce again, the league leader in yards was the league leader in attempts 17 of 37 times. I think it’s a little more difficult to draw conclusions from this list than the QB list, because a high number of rush attempts is probably a good sign that the RB is pretty darn good. Freeman McNeil led the league in rushing in 1982 despite eight other players rushing more often than he did, because he averaged 5.2 YPC. But that’s not more impressive than when Barry Sanders in 1997 averaged 6.1 YPC, even if “only” three other RBs had more carries than Sanders that year. Presumably, if McNeil was a better RB, he would have ranked higher than 9th in carries that year. (Not that I think McNeil’s 1982 performance was a fluke; in the playoffs, McNeil rushed for 362 yards on 62 carries, averaging 5.83 YPC.)While comparing RBs to QBs might be just a small difference in degree, using the same tools to compare WRs is a difference in kind. The analog to pass attempts and rush attempts would be targets, but we don’t have target data stretching back many years. So we’ll have to use receptions, which may be a little misleading. Here’s the list, anyway:
13t 1976 Roger Carr13 2000 Torry Holt11t 1996 Isaac Bruce11t 1978 Wesley Walker8 2006 Chad Johnson8 1983 Mike Quick7 2001 David Boston6t 1977 Drew Pearson5 2004 Muhsin Muhammad5 1989 Jerry Rice5 1979 Steve Largent4 1998 Antonio Freeman4 1981 Alfred Jenkins4 1975 Ken Burrough4 1970 Gene Washington3 1997 Rob Moore3 1984 Roy Green2t 1988 Henry Ellard2t 1995 Jerry Rice2 1999 Marvin Harrison2 1994 Jerry Rice2 1993 Jerry Rice2 1991 Michael Irvin2 1985 Steve Largent2 1982 Wes Chandler2 1974 Cliff Branch2 1971 Otis Taylor1t 2005 Steve Smith1t 1980 John Jefferson1 2003 Torry Holt1 2002 Marvin Harrison1 1992 Sterling Sharpe1 1990 Jerry Rice1 1987 JT Smith1 1986 Jerry Rice1 1973 Harold Carmichael1 1972 Harold JacksonADDENDUM by Doug:Here is the flip side: the league leaders in attempts who ranked lowest in yards.
Passing
Rushing
Anytime I hear a stat like “Eli Manning was 5th in the NFL in passing yards in 2005″, the first question that comes to my mind is “Well, where did he rank in pass attempts?” If you rank higher in pass attempts than passing yards, it’s going to be difficult to impress me by throwing for lots of yards; it means at least one person threw for more yards on fewer passes.
I was wondering what percentage of league leaders in a particular statistic (say, passing yards) also ranked first in opportunities (in this case, pass attempts). I was also curious which players had led the league while ranking the lowest in opportunities.
Here’s the full list of the 37 QBs to lead the post-merger NFL in passing yards in a single season. The first column shows where each QB ranked in pass attempts that season.
7 2001 Kurt Warner7 1983 Lynn Dickey7 1974 Ken Anderson7 1972 Joe Namath6 1976 Bert Jones5 2006 Drew Brees4 2005 Tom Brady4 1997 Jeff George4 1995 Brett Favre4 1979 Dan Fouts4 1970 John Brodie3 2000 Peyton Manning2 2004 Daunte Culpepper2 2003 Peyton Manning2 1999 Steve Beuerlein2 1998 Brett Favre2 1996 Mark Brunell2 1985 Dan Marino2 1982 Dan Fouts2 1975 Ken Anderson1 2002 Rich Gannon1 1994 Drew Bledsoe1 1993 John Elway1 1992 Dan Marino1 1991 Warren Moon1 1990 Warren Moon1 1989 Don Majkowski1 1988 Dan Marino1 1987 Neil Lomax1 1986 Dan Marino1 1984 Dan Marino1 1981 Dan Fouts1 1980 Dan Fouts1 1978 Fran Tarkenton1 1977 Joe Ferguson1 1973 Roman Gabriel1 1971 John HadlTo me, the accomplishments of Warner, Dickey, Anderson and Namath did is much more impressive than when Fouts or Moon led the league in passing attempts. I’m not saying you should throw for the most yards in the NFL when you pass more often than anyone else, just that it’s less impressive when you do. Slightly fewer than half (17 of 37) of the league leaders in passing yards also led the league in atempts that season.We can look at the same numbers for running backs, just using rushing yards and rush attempts.
9 1982 Freeman McNeil8t 1996 Barry Sanders6 1993 Emmitt Smith6 1990 Barry Sanders5 2001 Priest Holmes4 1997 Barry Sanders4 1994 Barry Sanders3 1984 Eric Dickerson3 1978 Earl Campbell3 1976 O.J. Simpson3 1974 Otis Armstrong2 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson2 2003 Jamal Lewis2 2000 Edgerrin James2 1998 Terrell Davis2 1992 Emmitt Smith2 1985 Marcus Allen2 1979 Earl Campbell2 1972 O.J. Simpson2 1970 Larry Brown1 2005 Shaun Alexander1 2004 Curtis Martin1 2002 Ricky Williams1 1999 Edgerrin James1 1995 Emmitt Smith1 1991 Emmitt Smith1 1989 Christian Okoye1 1988 Eric Dickerson1 1987 Charles White1 1986 Eric Dickerson1 1983 Eric Dickerson1 1981 George Rogers1 1980 Earl Campbell1 1977 Walter Payton1 1975 O.J. Simpson1 1973 O.J. Simpson1 1971 Floyd LittleOnce again, the league leader in yards was the league leader in attempts 17 of 37 times. I think it’s a little more difficult to draw conclusions from this list than the QB list, because a high number of rush attempts is probably a good sign that the RB is pretty darn good. Freeman McNeil led the league in rushing in 1982 despite eight other players rushing more often than he did, because he averaged 5.2 YPC. But that’s not more impressive than when Barry Sanders in 1997 averaged 6.1 YPC, even if “only” three other RBs had more carries than Sanders that year. Presumably, if McNeil was a better RB, he would have ranked higher than 9th in carries that year. (Not that I think McNeil’s 1982 performance was a fluke; in the playoffs, McNeil rushed for 362 yards on 62 carries, averaging 5.83 YPC.)While comparing RBs to QBs might be just a small difference in degree, using the same tools to compare WRs is a difference in kind. The analog to pass attempts and rush attempts would be targets, but we don’t have target data stretching back many years. So we’ll have to use receptions, which may be a little misleading. Here’s the list, anyway:
13t 1976 Roger Carr13 2000 Torry Holt11t 1996 Isaac Bruce11t 1978 Wesley Walker8 2006 Chad Johnson8 1983 Mike Quick7 2001 David Boston6t 1977 Drew Pearson5 2004 Muhsin Muhammad5 1989 Jerry Rice5 1979 Steve Largent4 1998 Antonio Freeman4 1981 Alfred Jenkins4 1975 Ken Burrough4 1970 Gene Washington3 1997 Rob Moore3 1984 Roy Green2t 1988 Henry Ellard2t 1995 Jerry Rice2 1999 Marvin Harrison2 1994 Jerry Rice2 1993 Jerry Rice2 1991 Michael Irvin2 1985 Steve Largent2 1982 Wes Chandler2 1974 Cliff Branch2 1971 Otis Taylor1t 2005 Steve Smith1t 1980 John Jefferson1 2003 Torry Holt1 2002 Marvin Harrison1 1992 Sterling Sharpe1 1990 Jerry Rice1 1987 JT Smith1 1986 Jerry Rice1 1973 Harold Carmichael1 1972 Harold JacksonADDENDUM by Doug:Here is the flip side: the league leaders in attempts who ranked lowest in yards.
Passing
Code:
Att. Leader YR Yd rank=========================================Jon Kitna 2001 16Drew Bledsoe 1995 11Jim Hart 1974 7Jim Zorn 1976 7Vinny Testaverde 2000 6Brett Favre 2006 6Brad Johnson 2003 5Steve Deberg 1979 5Brett Favre 1999 4Roman Gabriel 1970 4Brett Favre 2005 3Peyton Manning 1998 3Dan Marino 1997 3Drew Bledsoe 1996 3Joe Montana 1982 2Archie Manning 1972 2John Elway 1985 2Bill Kenney 1983 2Fran Tarkenton 1975 2Trent Green 2004 2
Code:
Att. Leader YR Yd rank=========================================Ricky Williams 2003 10Earnest Byner 1990 4Ricky Watters 1996 4Stephen Davis 2001 3O.J. Simpson 1974 3Emmitt Smith 1994 3James Wilder 1984 3Eddie George 2000 3Jerome Bettis 1997 3Thurman Thomas 1993 3Ron Johnson 1972 3Ron Johnson 1970 2Jamal Anderson 1998 2Walter Payton 1979 2Barry Foster 1992 2Tony Dorsett 1982 2Walter Payton 1976 2Larry Johnson 2006 2Walter Payton 1978 2Gerald Riggs 1985 2
