Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
This year it seems more so than other years, there is a lot of uncertainty heading into the season. A lot of people just don’t have the time to invest into researching every player so I think it’s best to have a rough guideline of what you want to do and then go out and try and execute that in your drafts. I’m going to walk you through what I think will help you.
Tools: Draft Dominator…I understand some of you do not bring laptops to the draft, cool and typically I don’t take it with me to the local face to face leagues. But I will tell you that this tool is very very helpful and I am going to explain why. The fact is you want to know what your team is going to look like roughly after you get the first 8-10 rounds out of the way. By simulating your draft with this software you can just keep erasing the blackboard and start over. Want to see what your team looks like if you go WR/WR to start, try it and see if yuo like it…wanna try QB/RB, go for it…how bout if you go WR-WR-WR in the 4th-6th rounds, no problem. The point is you should be prepared for anything if you use this software repeatedly leading up to your draft. If you have problems with it, there is an entire forum devoted to it here, and Bruce is very easy to email as well.
Round 1: This round is critical, and while I understand why people are staying away from going RB heavy early, I still think you should try and grab one of the top10 preseason RBs if you have the chance. Yes there will be others you like in the 4th-6th rounds to round out your RB2, but you need an anchor in the water and I think of the RBs in the 1st round, after LT there is a lot of safety with Marion Barber. I understand it sounds strange but I really think he will be solid the whole year. Westbrook, Peterson, LJ, they all have questions and risks involved…I’m not saying take Barber #2, but I think if you pick in the middle of the 1st round you need to have him on your radar.
As far as taking Moss or Brady, I have run those models a few ways and I am a little under whelmed when I finish rounding out my starters in the DD software. If you take Randy Mossin the 1st, I think you have to go full force and take the next best WR in the 2nd be it Colston, Edwards, Fitz, Wayne, whatever but you want to get a big advantage and the way to do that is grab another WR1.
Round 2/3/4: WR are where the value is in the 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th. I am starting to move Brandon Marshall way up on my boards, Steve Smith will be back after 2 games, others are being moved down due to injury like Chd Johnson, Housh somewhat as well, Plax seems to be there in the middle of the 3rd. If you are looking for a bust in the top10-15, I have a hard time finding a great candidate but Boldin scares me a little, and he is one of the few WR2 in that group as well.
The RB in the 4th round seem to be good value with Thomas Jones, DMC, and Edge amongst others just sitting out there. QBs like Romo, Brees, and Peyton manning will all be gone likely by the middle of the 3rd round, depending on your league make up, I would likely let them go, but I do have a soft spot for Romo and Brees.
Rounds 5 and 6: At RB, this is where some of the rookies are going to go…guys like Stewart, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, and even Chris Johnson will all likely get plucked as RB3s at worst by a lot of owners. Qbs like Big Ben will go in these round. I neglected to talk about TE, but Witten is likely already gone along with Gates, KW II, and Gonzo…let them go because there is plenty of talent at TE.
WRs in these two rounds are going to be guys with upside or had some breakout seasons. You might find Santonio Holmes here depending on league size. Roddy White, Greg Jennings, lot of good WRs that would make terrific WR2/3 on your team should be on your radar.
I like to have 2-3 RB, 3 WR, either a QB or TE after the 1st 6 rounds if possible.
Rounds 7-9: At WR you should find a lot of guys in their 30s who are productive but unheralded. If Marvin Harrison slips in here, that might be your ticket. Driver, Galloway, and Mason should all be in this range. A quick not about the WR…on most boards I find that Teddy Ginn is the Mason/Dixon line between guys I would actually start and want on my team, and guys that I dread having to pick. Ginn is in the lower to mid 30s range at WR so I have been grabbing him or comparable as my WR4 which makes me feel more comfortable and allows me to wait till very late as I find most WR that are being taken at about the 10th round and on are close to WW fodder IMO…certainly there are exceptions but the WRs get thin quickly and that is why I implore you to grab them early and often.
QBs in this range will include guys like Matt Schaub, Hass, perhaps Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, there are lots of decent QBs in this range, I like to snag 2 of them if possible.
RBs in this range would include players like Chris Perry, Fred Taylor, guys that make ideal RB3s. And if you have waited at TE, might as well wait a little longer, exceptions in these rounds would include Jeremy Shockey if still on the board and Owen Daniels who I love.
Rounds 10-13: You should find 2 decent TEs down here including guys like LJ Smith, Ben Watson, Donald Lee, Alge Crumpler, most of the 10-15 range should be in here, I would again suggest you grab 2 of them. I don’t like the WR available in and around here very much.
I would also stay away form the top defenses. I am starting to think Dallas, MN, NE, and the usual suspects might get shuffled around a little bit this year. I like teams such as Philly which will face a lot of under whelming OL throughout the season, or a team like Arizona that again has a very soft schedule and will surprise some people.
Rounds 14 and beyond: Just make sure if you need to grab a back up that you do it in here. If you take Lynch, you likely want to take Fred Jackson for insurance reasons. Now is a good time to take a flyer on players, especially WR that are not slated to start but will see action on pass happy teams like Courtney Taylor, Josh Morgan and Jason Hill, Chris Henry(susp 4 games), situations like that.
One thing I would try and pass along as well is to not panic. Again, if you have done some different mocks on the DD software and you haven’t rigged it so you drafted an all star team each and every time, then you should have a good idea of what to expect. Very important to know where the breaks are in tiers. I also invite you to track what your opponents pick…if you are the last person without a QB and it’s the 6th round, no reason to go and reach for a QB, odds are no one is taking anybody when they have other needs to fill so you should wait another round or two.
Good luck and if you have any comments or questions, please post so we can all share our experiences from the earlier redrafts we have done.
Tools: Draft Dominator…I understand some of you do not bring laptops to the draft, cool and typically I don’t take it with me to the local face to face leagues. But I will tell you that this tool is very very helpful and I am going to explain why. The fact is you want to know what your team is going to look like roughly after you get the first 8-10 rounds out of the way. By simulating your draft with this software you can just keep erasing the blackboard and start over. Want to see what your team looks like if you go WR/WR to start, try it and see if yuo like it…wanna try QB/RB, go for it…how bout if you go WR-WR-WR in the 4th-6th rounds, no problem. The point is you should be prepared for anything if you use this software repeatedly leading up to your draft. If you have problems with it, there is an entire forum devoted to it here, and Bruce is very easy to email as well.
Round 1: This round is critical, and while I understand why people are staying away from going RB heavy early, I still think you should try and grab one of the top10 preseason RBs if you have the chance. Yes there will be others you like in the 4th-6th rounds to round out your RB2, but you need an anchor in the water and I think of the RBs in the 1st round, after LT there is a lot of safety with Marion Barber. I understand it sounds strange but I really think he will be solid the whole year. Westbrook, Peterson, LJ, they all have questions and risks involved…I’m not saying take Barber #2, but I think if you pick in the middle of the 1st round you need to have him on your radar.
As far as taking Moss or Brady, I have run those models a few ways and I am a little under whelmed when I finish rounding out my starters in the DD software. If you take Randy Mossin the 1st, I think you have to go full force and take the next best WR in the 2nd be it Colston, Edwards, Fitz, Wayne, whatever but you want to get a big advantage and the way to do that is grab another WR1.
Round 2/3/4: WR are where the value is in the 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th. I am starting to move Brandon Marshall way up on my boards, Steve Smith will be back after 2 games, others are being moved down due to injury like Chd Johnson, Housh somewhat as well, Plax seems to be there in the middle of the 3rd. If you are looking for a bust in the top10-15, I have a hard time finding a great candidate but Boldin scares me a little, and he is one of the few WR2 in that group as well.
The RB in the 4th round seem to be good value with Thomas Jones, DMC, and Edge amongst others just sitting out there. QBs like Romo, Brees, and Peyton manning will all be gone likely by the middle of the 3rd round, depending on your league make up, I would likely let them go, but I do have a soft spot for Romo and Brees.
Rounds 5 and 6: At RB, this is where some of the rookies are going to go…guys like Stewart, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, and even Chris Johnson will all likely get plucked as RB3s at worst by a lot of owners. Qbs like Big Ben will go in these round. I neglected to talk about TE, but Witten is likely already gone along with Gates, KW II, and Gonzo…let them go because there is plenty of talent at TE.
WRs in these two rounds are going to be guys with upside or had some breakout seasons. You might find Santonio Holmes here depending on league size. Roddy White, Greg Jennings, lot of good WRs that would make terrific WR2/3 on your team should be on your radar.
I like to have 2-3 RB, 3 WR, either a QB or TE after the 1st 6 rounds if possible.
Rounds 7-9: At WR you should find a lot of guys in their 30s who are productive but unheralded. If Marvin Harrison slips in here, that might be your ticket. Driver, Galloway, and Mason should all be in this range. A quick not about the WR…on most boards I find that Teddy Ginn is the Mason/Dixon line between guys I would actually start and want on my team, and guys that I dread having to pick. Ginn is in the lower to mid 30s range at WR so I have been grabbing him or comparable as my WR4 which makes me feel more comfortable and allows me to wait till very late as I find most WR that are being taken at about the 10th round and on are close to WW fodder IMO…certainly there are exceptions but the WRs get thin quickly and that is why I implore you to grab them early and often.
QBs in this range will include guys like Matt Schaub, Hass, perhaps Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, there are lots of decent QBs in this range, I like to snag 2 of them if possible.
RBs in this range would include players like Chris Perry, Fred Taylor, guys that make ideal RB3s. And if you have waited at TE, might as well wait a little longer, exceptions in these rounds would include Jeremy Shockey if still on the board and Owen Daniels who I love.
Rounds 10-13: You should find 2 decent TEs down here including guys like LJ Smith, Ben Watson, Donald Lee, Alge Crumpler, most of the 10-15 range should be in here, I would again suggest you grab 2 of them. I don’t like the WR available in and around here very much.
I would also stay away form the top defenses. I am starting to think Dallas, MN, NE, and the usual suspects might get shuffled around a little bit this year. I like teams such as Philly which will face a lot of under whelming OL throughout the season, or a team like Arizona that again has a very soft schedule and will surprise some people.
Rounds 14 and beyond: Just make sure if you need to grab a back up that you do it in here. If you take Lynch, you likely want to take Fred Jackson for insurance reasons. Now is a good time to take a flyer on players, especially WR that are not slated to start but will see action on pass happy teams like Courtney Taylor, Josh Morgan and Jason Hill, Chris Henry(susp 4 games), situations like that.
One thing I would try and pass along as well is to not panic. Again, if you have done some different mocks on the DD software and you haven’t rigged it so you drafted an all star team each and every time, then you should have a good idea of what to expect. Very important to know where the breaks are in tiers. I also invite you to track what your opponents pick…if you are the last person without a QB and it’s the 6th round, no reason to go and reach for a QB, odds are no one is taking anybody when they have other needs to fill so you should wait another round or two.
Good luck and if you have any comments or questions, please post so we can all share our experiences from the earlier redrafts we have done.
Driver in the 7th is just awesome, i ahve been grabbing him as my WR4 in some leagues, he is awesome for bye weeks and liekly could unseat one of my starters.
Excellent read MOP, thank you
