Some thoughts on winning FF (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

Thoughts on Key’s to Winning FF

I’ve been reading and posting on this board for a good while. There is a ton of great information here. What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.

I really don’t use other people’s rankings anymore other than to review mine against to make sure my logic is sound. I don’t change my rankings based on other people’s rankings. I used to do this and it always ended up poorly.

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.

2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.

5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.

6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

There are more rules than this, but I don’t want to bore anyone with the TGunz rule or the 1,000 yard WR rule among others. This is really a simple concept. I don’t think it is that difficult to target 4-5 guys in your draft who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. I think a lot of good drafters here already know this.

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

 

[kupcho1]

Thoughts on Key’s to Winning FFI’ve been reading and posting on this board for a good while. There is a ton of great information here. What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.I really don’t use other people’s rankings anymore other than to review mine against to make sure my logic is sound. I don’t change my rankings based on other people’s rankings. I used to do this and it always ended up poorly.The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.There are more rules than this, but I don’t want to bore anyone with the TGunz rule or the 1,000 yard WR rule among others. This is really a simple concept. I don’t think it is that difficult to target 4-5 guys in your draft who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. I think a lot of good drafters here already know this.Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

I'm intrigued by your line of thinking and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Seriously though, good stuff. I'd add one more for those in dynasty or larger keeper leagues: don't overvalue opportunity. I chose Shaun Alexander with the 1st pick (over guys like Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones) even though he would be stuck behind Ricky Watters because I believed he was more talented. It took a little while, but the patience paid off.

 

[nightshift]

Thoughts on Key’s to Winning FFI’ve been reading and posting on this board for a good while. There is a ton of great information here. What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.I really don’t use other people’s rankings anymore other than to review mine against to make sure my logic is sound. I don’t change my rankings based on other people’s rankings. I used to do this and it always ended up poorly.The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.There are more rules than this, but I don’t want to bore anyone with the TGunz rule or the 1,000 yard WR rule among others. This is really a simple concept. I don’t think it is that difficult to target 4-5 guys in your draft who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. I think a lot of good drafters here already know this.Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

I'm intrigued by your line of thinking and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Seriously though, good stuff. I'd add one more for those in dynasty or larger keeper leagues: don't overvalue opportunity. I chose Shaun Alexander with the 1st pick (over guys like Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones) even though he would be stuck behind Ricky Watters because I believed he was more talented. It took a little while, but the patience paid off.

I would simplify your premise: Don't Overvalue. Opportunity, talent, etc. Try to avoid hype and consider the player's true situation.

 

[ceo3west]

You bring up some great points, nice post. I would add a couple things though:

* Never drafting a guy that can't seem to play a full season can hurt you. I would add that if a guy like this is around late, he's worth the pick (i.e. Galloway last year - went very late). Certainly not worth an early selection.

* I would also add to youre list that reaching for players is not wise. I see guys doign this every year and end up egtting burned. Let the draft come to you - value always falls into your lap. If youre picking twice at the end of the first round (1.12 & 2.01), and you think Reggie Bush is going to explode, I would advise against reaching for him. The reason is because he's lost his value by picking him here, and if he doesn't explode you're screwed.

 

[kupcho1]

I would simplify your premise: Don't Overvalue. Opportunity, talent, etc. Try to avoid hype and consider the player's true situation.

Sorry, but talent is one thing I will always overvalue. Sure, opportunity is part of the equation, but if you're in for the long haul (i.e., not a redraft league) I think talent wins out.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I would simplify your premise: Don't Overvalue. Opportunity, talent, etc. Try to avoid hype and consider the player's true situation.

Sorry, but talent is one thing I will always overvalue. Sure, opportunity is part of the equation, but if you're in for the long haul (i.e., not a redraft league) I think talent wins out.

 

[nightshift]

I would simplify your premise: Don't Overvalue. Opportunity, talent, etc. Try to avoid hype and consider the player's true situation.

Sorry, but talent is one thing I will always overvalue. Sure, opportunity is part of the equation, but if you're in for the long haul (i.e., not a redraft league) I think talent wins out.

Like Chris Henry talent?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Derrick Mason

Dominic Rhodes

Curtis Martin

Eddie Kennison

 

[Joe T]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick.I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.Warrick Dunn in the 3rd round is not a sexy upside pick... its a consistent value play.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick.I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Warrick Dunn in the 3rd round is not a sexy upside pick... its a consistent value play.

 

[Joe T]

Derrick MasonDominic RhodesCurtis MartinEddie Kennison

While I'm not in love with Curtis Martin, this is the line of thinking I go through.Derrick Mason is very high on my list of guys that will outperform their current ADP.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Derrick Mason Dominic Rhodes Curtis MartinEddie Kennison

 

[Darth Cheney]

BPA

Best Player Available..... wins every time.

 

[Joe T]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick.I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Warrick Dunn in the 3rd round is not a sexy upside pick... its a consistent value play.

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn

Deuce McAlister

LenDale White

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

 

[ImTheScientist]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

 

[kinglochness]

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Name 4 players not in the top 4 rounds that you feel have tremendous upside and are value for this year.

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick.I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Warrick Dunn in the 3rd round is not a sexy upside pick... its a consistent value play.

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn

Deuce McAlister

LenDale White

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

 

[Kleck.]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

There is a very good chance that Glenn, McAllister and White outperform their ADP, and that is the #1 goal here.

 

[valhallan]

What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Great post, Joe T.I very much agree with your opening thoughts on avoiding opinion threads as well as rules number 1 and 2. Following those few simple ideas has enabled me to win several leagues against solid competition.Every year I'll try to approach my research a little differently than the year before, but I usually find myself doing a few things consistently:1. Study magazines to see where the "experts" are ranking players so that I have an idea of their typical market value. 2. Set up some spreadsheets with each players scores for each week of the last few seasons to see which guys have been the most consistent (# of 10pt games, # of 15 pt games, etc)3. Look for teams with little turnover on offense, particularly the line4. Read, read, read the news bloggerI treat the draft as a fully dynamic process in which each of my opponents picks directly affects my pool and dictates when I can and when I can not let my targets stay on the board for another round.I end up spending appropriate value on a wealth of historically consistent scorers in stable situations.In the later rounds I'll go for high upside guys to fill out my roster (Glenn & E.Manning last year).

 

[Kleck.]

JoeT

Simple, to the point, and it works.

 

[Uncle Randy]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

There is a very good chance that Glenn, McAllister and White outperform their ADP, and that is the #1 goal here.

I don't think that was the point at all. HE gives us a set of rules we should follow and then lists players who don't fit the rules.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

There is a very good chance that Glenn, McAllister and White outperform their ADP, and that is the #1 goal here.

I don't think that was the point at all. HE gives us a set of rules we should follow and then lists players who don't fit the rules.

Exactly my point!! Glad someone got it. Although I do think they are good rules to follow.

 

[Kleck.]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

There is a very good chance that Glenn, McAllister and White outperform their ADP, and that is the #1 goal here.

I don't think that was the point at all. HE gives us a set of rules we should follow and then lists players who don't fit the rules.

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

 

[Uncle Randy]

Derrick Mason

Terry Glenn 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

Deuce McAlister 3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

LenDale White 2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

Kurt Warner/Matt Leinart combo

There is a very good chance that Glenn, McAllister and White outperform their ADP, and that is the #1 goal here.

I don't think that was the point at all. HE gives us a set of rules we should follow and then lists players who don't fit the rules.

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

I'm not knocking the concept at all. Quite the contrary. But, had he stuck with the two phrases you quoted below, there wouldn't be a question. But when the players listed specifically act against some of the rules he included, it just doesn't make sense.We can agree to disagree, though. Just siding with Scientist on this one.

 

[Family Matters]

Thoughts on Key’s to Winning FFI’ve been reading and posting on this board for a good while. There is a ton of great information here. What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.I really don’t use other people’s rankings anymore other than to review mine against to make sure my logic is sound. I don’t change my rankings based on other people’s rankings. I used to do this and it always ended up poorly.The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.There are more rules than this, but I don’t want to bore anyone with the TGunz rule or the 1,000 yard WR rule among others. This is really a simple concept. I don’t think it is that difficult to target 4-5 guys in your draft who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. I think a lot of good drafters here already know this.Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

Good stuff Joe but I need to clarifyy 1 thing. Didn't you draft LJ in round 4 in last year's survivor we were in? In fact I think you took him just ahead of where I was planning which was early round 5. I was hoping to protect my Holmes pick. That would go against what you just posted in #1 & 2 but who's counting? Fact is you did the right thing regardless of your rules. Another rule should be to look for opportunties that lie outside of your rules. There are always a few each draft.Did you get lucky? Yes, of course because LJ's success was contingent on Holmes getting injured. Without that LJ was merely a nice back up that could put up top 20 numbers perhaps. And no one could of known that Holmes would become injured or when. He was a high risk but he could have stayed healthy as well.

 

[David Yudkin]

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick. I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Yet you say Larry Johnson was one of your 4 main picks last year, and he met NONE of your own guidelines.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.

2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.

5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.

6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

 

[Kleck.]

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick. I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Yet you say Larry Johnson was one of your 4 main picks last year, and he met NONE of your own guidelines.

I got LJ in the 5th round as my#3 RB in a couple of drafts last year.

 

[Joe T]

I don't think that was the point at all. HE gives us a set of rules we should follow and then lists players who don't fit the rules.

Hey, you guys make some good points. And there certainly are arguments against Glenn, Deuce, and White... heck all of them for that matter.I'm not here to convince anyone of the guys I think will outperform their ADP. I'm just trying to show the thought process I go through in choosing mine.The idea is to choose your own and go with it... not to follow every rule like they are set in stone. They are guidelines.I think Glenn's PPG upside far outweighs his injury risk downside. I don't think he's a player that 'can't stay on the field.' He's proven he can stay on the field. Same story with Deuce.I'd say my worst pick is Lendale White. He's a guy I've waffeled on a lot. But he is going late, and if I'm going to grab my RB 3 or 4 in the 8th or 9th round, I want a guy with a shot to produce at a RB 1 or RB 2 on a PPG basis if he gets to play. White is a guy like that, imo.

 

[Joe T]

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick. I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Yet you say Larry Johnson was one of your 4 main picks last year, and he met NONE of your own guidelines.

He met the most important guideline of all.Draft players with the opportunity to outperform their ADP.

 

[Kleck.]

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.

2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.

5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.

6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

Keyword: someI know I go through similar steps during my drafts and none are definite. At times a player may fit each of steps/rules to stay away from, but if they fall to a point where I believe they will outperform that pick and I believe they are the BPA, I will take them.

 

[Joe T]

Good stuff Joe but I need to clarifyy 1 thing. Didn't you draft LJ in round 4 in last year's survivor we were in?

Yes. That is the only draft where I took him in Round 4.Again, I'm not saying I follow those rule to a T in every draft. They are guidelines I use to try to get guys who will outperform their ADP and avoid guys who won't.

 

[Joe T]

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick. I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Yet you say Larry Johnson was one of your 4 main picks last year, and he met NONE of your own guidelines.

David,Thanks for the response.I think he fits nicely in guidelines 3-6. He's a guy that didn't get a lot of hype in the shark pool last year. He's a guy that was in a somewhat muddled backfield. He was the lower of the two backs... not sure how that's not using what I posted.

 

[LHUCKS]

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

The problem with ff rules/guidelines in general is that they oversimplify what is a very complex hobby. Basically many of your rules above have the underlying message of "avoid risk." Well, in my opinion and most Wallstreet analysts' opinions, there is a time to take risk and a time to not take risk. Fantasy football is just as much of an art as it is a science. The Leonardo Da Vinci's will always crush the Joe Accountants/CPAs.

 

[David Yudkin]

I probably wasn't clear above, but in the first 4 rounds I don't draft anyone with tremendous upside. I draft players who have proven they can produce to a level worthy of that pick. I'm not trying to hit home runs in the first four rounds.

Yet you say Larry Johnson was one of your 4 main picks last year, and he met NONE of your own guidelines.

David,Thanks for the response.I think he fits nicely in guidelines 3-6. He's a guy that didn't get a lot of hype in the shark pool last year. He's a guy that was in a somewhat muddled backfield. He was the lower of the two backs... not sure how that's not using what I posted.

Johnsonwas a 4th round pick. If you were around any of the offseason, I PERSONALLY posted 50-60 times on threads discussing ONLY the Chiefs RB situation. His hype was off the charts, and I pimped him as a great 4th round pick.But HE CERTAINLY was far from a proven guy and was not a low risk guy.To be clear, I'm not disagreeingwith your premise or your guidelines, only that LJ really was against the grain.

 

[Kleck.]

Maybe I'm mistaken what Joe T's rules really are. I'm under the impression that they are mearly guidlines, rules in place to simply help make a decision, not rules to live and die by during a draft and with nothing to the contrary.

 

[Joe T]

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

The problem with ff rules/guidelines in general is that they oversimplify what is a very complex hobby. Basically many of your rules above have the underlying message of "avoid risk." Well, in my opinion and most Wallstreet analysts' opinions, there is a time to take risk and a time to not take risk. My two cents. Fantasy football is just as much of an art as it is a science. The Leonardo Da Vinci's will always crush the Joe Accountants/CPAs.

I would disagree that this is a "very complex hobby."I apologize if you read that as avoid risk. It wasn't meant to be that.I would say avoid risks in the first 3-4 rounds, but then grab guys who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. Finding those guys isn't really "complex."

 

[Joe T]

Maybe I'm mistaken what Joe T's rules really are. I'm under the impression that they are mearly guidlines, rules in place to simply help make a decision, not rules to live and die by during a draft and with nothing to the contrary.

 

[LHUCKS]

I would disagree that this is a "very complex hobby."I apologize if you read that as avoid risk. It wasn't meant to be that.

I was generalizing your comments. The majority of your bullet points are directly related to risk aversion.

I would say avoid risks in the first 3-4 rounds, but then grab guys who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. Finding those guys isn't really "complex."

I didn't say your rules were complex nor did I say finding guys that outperform their ADP is complex(although nobody bats 1.000) What I did say is that the hobby is complex....definitely more complex than people give it credit for.

 

[ImTheScientist]

A few of "the sharks" swimming in this pool are lucky they can even swim

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I have a question for Joe T. I'm in a league that gives 4 pts for passing TDs, so QBs aren't supervalued. Manning will go early 2nd round, Palmer late 3rd/early 4th. I usually grab a Trent Green type in the 8th round or so, but this year a few guys who I think will go in the late 4th/early 5th have been peaking my interest of late: Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb.

Brady will go early/mid 4th, Manning mid-late 4th and McNabb somewhere in the late 5th probably. Based on this, I would expect you to say that Brady offers the best chance to outperform his spot given that he was the highest scoring qb last year in many scoring formats, and that he has been a solid proven starter for years. Of the 3 I feel Manning has the highest upside, given the improvement his brother made early in his career, and Eli's supporting cast in NY is very solid. McNabb was a proven stud 2 years ago, but his supporting cast is pretty bad and he's coming off the injury.

I know I just stated the obvious, but I'm curious, based on where I project them to be drafted in my league, which guys (if any) you would say look like the biggest locks to outperform their pick.

Thanks.

 

[Joe T]

Johnsonwas a 4th round pick. If you were around any of the offseason, I PERSONALLY posted 50-60 times on threads discussing ONLY the Chiefs RB situation. His hype was off the charts, and I pimped him as a great 4th round pick.But HE CERTAINLY was far from a proven guy and was not a low risk guy.To be clear, I'm not disagreeingwith your premise or your guidelines, only that LJ really was against the grain.

I don't want to turn this into a Larry Johnson thread. My thoughts above were to be low risk in the first 3-4 rounds not the whole draft. I don't have LJ's ADP from last year. Maybe you can look it up. I know I was able to get him in the 5th in a lot of leagues.

 

[silentmark]

You need a solid roster of course, but the most important piece of any winning season, LUCK.

Here endth the lesson ...

 

[ImTheScientist]

You need a solid roster of course, but the most important piece of any winning season, LUCK.

Here endth the lesson ...

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Thoughts on Key’s to Winning FF

I’ve been reading and posting on this board for a good while. There is a ton of great information here. What I’ve discovered over the years is to stay out of opinion threads or hype threads and stick to reading news related information only. Why waste time debating the merits of Willis McGahee with some Bills homer when you have no chance of swaying his opinion? It’s really not worth it.

I really don’t use other people’s rankings anymore other than to review mine against to make sure my logic is sound. I don’t change my rankings based on other people’s rankings. I used to do this and it always ended up poorly.

The key to maximizing your opportunity to win is pretty simple: Draft players who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and avoid players who are likely to under perform their ADP.

Here are some thoughts I go through to target players who will have the opportunity to outperform their ADP and well… avoid the ones that won’t:

1. I like to call this the Trung Candidate rule: focus on players with a proven track record. This is especially true in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft. Why would I waste an early pick on a player who has not proven he can cut it in the NFL? Give me a guy who has shown he can produce over a player being taken in the same range who hasn’t proved he can perform.

2. Draft for consistency instead of trying to hit home runs. Yes, this is similar to rule #1, but the point can’t be stressed enough. You want to avoid land mines? Go down a path that is known. This will keep you drafting guys like Rod Smith over players like Lee Evans.

3. The Roy Williams rule (formerly known as the Fred Taylor rule): Avoid players that can’t seem to play a full season.

4. Do not give away a players stats because a star on the team has gone elsewhere. My example here would be Ronnie Brown. Just because Ricky is gone doesn’t mean Brown is going to get all of Ricky’s numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. This also happens with WR’s when people say, “Somebody’s got to catch now that player X is gone.” It just doesn’t work that way.

5. Read the Shark Pool and see who is being overly hyped. I like to refer to this as the Kevan Barlow rule, but it could also be called the Tatum Bell rule. If I consistently see people posting that player X is going to explode this year, I avoid that player. He will be taken higher than where he deserves to go and thus runs the risk of under performance.

6. Lastly, look for good offenses where the RB1 or WR1 is muddled. Then I take the guy that is value. If most people are saying one guy will end up as the RB1 and pushing his value up, I try to grab the other guy later.

There are more rules than this, but I don’t want to bore anyone with the TGunz rule or the 1,000 yard WR rule among others. This is really a simple concept. I don’t think it is that difficult to target 4-5 guys in your draft who have the opportunity to outperform their ADP. I think a lot of good drafters here already know this.

Last year, I focused on 4 players: Larry Johnson who could be had outside of the first 4 rounds but had tremendous upside, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, and Keenan McCardell. Did I get lucky with Larry Johnson? Maybe. Did I get lucky with all 4? Who knows. I do know that it seems fairly easy every year to find a few guys that are a slam dunk to outperform their ADP.

First of all, in what year did Evans outperform Smith? Aside from Smith being a better fantasy WR than Evans, this cashes with your value rule. Smith outperforms Evans and is taken later - Smith is better value. Secondly, only taken proven players isn't always a good thing, ie Lamont Jordan, LJ, Caddy last year, and in any given year there is a rookie who performs equal to a 4th round pick or better.

 

[The Jerk]

You need a solid roster of course, but the most important piece of any winning season, LUCK.

Here endth the lesson ...

There's no denying that luck is a part of FF.However, the perceived amount of luck in FF is inversely proportional to the success of a given owner.

Secondly, the longer the time period, the less luck is involved as a deciding factor of success or failure.

On the second point, in any one head-to-head matchup, luck can easily enable a far inferior team to win a game. However, over the course of one season, luck tends to be more evenly distributed. And over multiple seasons, a given owner's success or failure is much more about information, knowledge, execution, etc. (i.e., skill) than it is luck.

There is no doubt that FF can be overly complicated, but it can also be oversimplified. The key for any individual owner is to know the degree of complexity that is actually useful and not counterproductive. Beyond that point, you end up with a series of rules and formulas that act more as a straitjacket than a guide.

 

[The Jerk]

You need a solid roster of course, but the most important piece of any winning season, LUCK.

Here endth the lesson ...

But poor spelling... Actually, I wanted to add that Johnson's ADP was approximately pick 50-55 if I remember correctly. I personally got him at #51 in one league and #63 in another.

Johnson defied nearly every convention last year. Rarely is there a backup who has finished the previous season with four (I think) multiple TD games and who has a starter ahead of him who has shown increasing brittleness. Combine that with the KC system and OL and I think that "rules" are out of the question. I didn't tier him in my draft spreadsheet. He was off to the side with his name circled.

 

[Joe T]

I have a question for Joe T. I'm in a league that gives 4 pts for passing TDs, so QBs aren't supervalued. Manning will go early 2nd round, Palmer late 3rd/early 4th. I usually grab a Trent Green type in the 8th round or so, but this year a few guys who I think will go in the late 4th/early 5th have been peaking my interest of late: Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Donovan McNabb.Brady will go early/mid 4th, Manning mid-late 4th and McNabb somewhere in the late 5th probably. Based on this, I would expect you to say that Brady offers the best chance to outperform his spot given that he was the highest scoring qb last year in many scoring formats, and that he has been a solid proven starter for years. Of the 3 I feel Manning has the highest upside, given the improvement his brother made early in his career, and Eli's supporting cast in NY is very solid. McNabb was a proven stud 2 years ago, but his supporting cast is pretty bad and he's coming off the injury. I know I just stated the obvious, but I'm curious, based on where I project them to be drafted in my league, which guys (if any) you would say look like the biggest locks to outperform their pick. Thanks.

Is none an option? I'm assuming this isn't a PPR league because of how early those QB's are going. Even in non-PPR they are still a little early. Of those 3 at those picks, I would say Brady has the best chance to outperform where he's going. I also think he's the least likely to end up outside of the top 5 QB's of those 3 which limits his downside.For QB's this year, I think that there is Manning... then Brady... then about 10 guys who could end up in any order. I'd just list out the next 10 you like and take the last one as late as you can.

 

[Jackal King]

While I think we could debate endlessly the merits of Joe T's particular rules of choice...I think that he hits on a very important issue which I think took me several years to appreciate.

Which is...you really MUST have a defined strategy. I reject the notion that 'gut instinct' will prevail over 'analysis'. I insist that a methodical approach based on proven success will prevail over those who fail to understand why things worked and why things didn't work.

So...knowing what works for you, in this example, how to find undervalued ADP's, is an important element of your strategy. Don't randomly look for names in the list. Look for criteria which you think will result in strong potential for surpassing ADP. THEN...match names in the list to your criteria. And...hone that tactic each year by emphasising what worked, and look for alternatives where things didn't work that well.

Not all scenarios are going to be perfect fits. And you may have some conflicting criteria. But, if you lead with 'conditions' and THEN look for matching names, I think you'll be better off than leading with names.

But just as important...ADP value is not the 'end all' of strategy. It's just one important piece. Drafting with SOS, whether to use QBBC, stud RB, and other components should also factor into an overall strategy and all of these elements should be reviewed, leveraged, discarded based on how successful they were.