Staff Value Plays Article Posted (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

 

[Brewzers]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

Lemmings

 

[lions327]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

In general, I agree, but the circumstances play a role too. Look at who Leinart has to throw to compared to Young. That, combined with Leinart being more NFL ready explains a lot of this. Who did Young have to throw deep to, or to get yards after catch? Young has a much steeper learning curve, and Leinart has a huge advantage in WR's. I bet Leinart would have had numbers like Young did or possibly worse if he had played for Tennessee last year. Can you imagine VY running around, keeping plays alive, and being able to find Fitz or Boldin breaking away from a DB? While he isn't a pure passer and isn't as polished as Leinart, the caliber of WR's they had to throw to was the biggest factor in my opinion.

 

[Jason Wood]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

Jason - I respect both your contributions to this board and your viewpoint in general. But you're missing the boat on Noah Herron. If you really believe that he'll finish as #29 RB, I'd encourage you to watch Packers game film from last year. He's simply not a starting RB. Hard working guy, good pass catching back, eager/willing blocker - yes. Large enough to shake off defenders, able to make people miss, vision to see holes in the line, speed to make a difference - no. He's a special teams player at worst, a 3rd down back at best. I hear what you're saying about Morency and Jackson - neither is exactly reliable. But Herron isn't the answer either. The only way he finishes #29 is if both Morency and Jackson suffer season-ending injuries early in the year, and he has a Nick Goings-like opportunity.

Hey Michael,Thanks for the kind words. I can't tell you I think Herron is a hidden gem waiting to bust out a 1,500-yard season. But I do think the talent gap between he and Morency and Jackson is much smaller than is the perceived value. I can't be more open here, this is a hunch based on nary a training camp snap or soundbite. As with every other player projection and ranking, Herron's will be under review on a constant basis from now until draft season.

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

LOL...I don't want my opinion to become part of the record, but screw the guys with drafts in July

Bass... #1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?... #2, it's clearly part of the record, anyone that cares to will be able to look back at my rankings and see where I had Herron... #3, you've been around long enough to know that crazy #### happens. Mike Bell, Willie Parker, Nick Goings to name a few. I think Herron could surprise, but I'm obviously no a Packers insider and realize he's got the longest odds... #4, it's JULY 2ND. When camp gets underway, if Herron isn't getting it done or being given a shot at the main role, I will adjust accordingly and 99% of those who are looking for draft advice and rankings will be none the wiser.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Is there less consensus this year? There were very few players who got 5 votes or more. and it quickly drops into the 1-2 vote range in each category. I seem to recall past years there being several who got 6 or 7 votes. Maybe mocks/ADP are becoming more reflective of the views of sites like this.

Then again, maybe you just have fewer guys contributing this year?

 

[Jason Wood]

Is there less consensus this year? There were very few players who got 5 votes or more. and it quickly drops into the 1-2 vote range in each category. I seem to recall past years there being several who got 6 or 7 votes. Maybe mocks/ADP are becoming more reflective of the views of sites like this. Then again, maybe you just have fewer guys contributing this year?

I think it was a combination of the two Mungo

 

[lebowski]

Where is this article on the FBG's website? I can only seem to get to it through the message boards.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Is there less consensus this year? There were very few players who got 5 votes or more. and it quickly drops into the 1-2 vote range in each category. I seem to recall past years there being several who got 6 or 7 votes. Maybe mocks/ADP are becoming more reflective of the views of sites like this.

Then again, maybe you just have fewer guys contributing this year?

I think it was a combination of the two Mungo

I think this is correct.For comparison, here's a link to 2006 Value Plays (and a shameless bump for my picking Brees )

2006 Value Plays

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

 

[Jason Wood]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

 

[David Yudkin]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

I'm with A-Rud. I've already had some.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

why does it matter so much whether it's a keeper league or a redraft league? I never really understood the hate for early drafts myself. If you're in a bunch of leagues, it's not always possible to draft them all in August. Much better to spread them out over May, June, July, and August.

 

[-OZ-]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

Fair enough, we just disagree here.Is 6.76 that great, even for a rookie? Cutler's was 7.31, yet he completed 59% of his passes. Better WRs? More NFL ready? Looks like it, but he wasn't supposed to be. One interesting thing, YPA and % tend to rise and fall with each other. They both usually also correlate to the quality of WRs (at least to a degree)VY's Yards per completion was 11.95Leinart's Yards per completion was 11.90The argument that VY doesn't have a great supporting cast, and therefore is a risky FF prospect, I'll agree with. Just don't give me this crap about "cringing because of his completion percentage" while having manlove for Leinart.

 

[bostonfred]

Three votes for why Reggie Bush is overrated, and all of them say the rating would make more sense in PPR leagues. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd bet that a lot of the early ADP is a mix of PPR and non-PPR. In a PPR league, I take Bush top 5. In a non-PPR league, I take him much later. So his ADP of 9 makes sense to me, especially considering that it only takes one owner in a PPR league in that mock draft to take him "too early" for the format they're mock drafting for.

 

[bostonfred]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

why does it matter so much whether it's a keeper league or a redraft league? I never really understood the hate for early drafts myself. If you're in a bunch of leagues, it's not always possible to draft them all in August. Much better to spread them out over May, June, July, and August.

I actually might like an early drafting redraft league. It gives you a chance to start trading before the season like you would in a dynasty, but you also get to have a draft every year. Plus it rewards people who pay attention earlier, which is the kind of league that people who pay attention earlier would like.

 

[Pick]

 

[lions327]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

why does it matter so much whether it's a keeper league or a redraft league? I never really understood the hate for early drafts myself. If you're in a bunch of leagues, it's not always possible to draft them all in August. Much better to spread them out over May, June, July, and August.

I actually might like an early drafting redraft league. It gives you a chance to start trading before the season like you would in a dynasty, but you also get to have a draft every year. Plus it rewards people who pay attention earlier, which is the kind of league that people who pay attention earlier would like.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

So, I click on the article just to check it out. First player listed for undervalued QBs - Jon Kitna. OK, that makes sense. He is listed as the QB13 taken and going at an ADP of the 89th pick. Read a little bit about him and how was QB6 last year...yada, yada.. and I started thinking...why would all of these people be taking him at QB13 after picking up Calvin Johnson, another year in the system, etc? The answer is...they are not in fact. The information is incorrect. QB13? 89th overall? One minute later I found this at Antsports:

First Name Last Name Pos Team ADP High Low Standard

Deviation Drafts

1. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.02.83 1.05 2.12 04.61 23

2. Carson Palmer QB CIN 3.05.35 2.01 4.09 09.64 20

3. Tom Brady QB NEP 4.02.53 2.11 5.01 06.10 19

4. Drew Brees QB NOS 4.07.10 2.12 5.06 07.80 20

5. Marc Bulger QB STL 4.12.95 3.02 6.10 09.60 20

6. Donovan McNabb QB PHI 5.06.28 4.04 6.07 08.78 18

7. Jon Kitna QB DET 6.06.16 4.10 8.07 10.82 19

8. Tony Romo QB DAL 6.12.67 6.01 8.05 07.38 18

9. Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 7.03.68 5.10 8.09 08.80 19

10. Vince Young QB TEN 7.08.63 6.06 9.09 11.37 19

11. Matt Leinart QB ARI 8.04.28 6.12 9.08 08.37 18

Jon Kitna - QB7 average draft position is 66th overall. That is 6 QBs difference and 23 picks! Just to make people aware, Kitna will not be there at the 89th pick, he will have been drafted a 2 full rounds earlier on average.

 

[joey]

So, I click on the article just to check it out. First player listed for undervalued QBs - Jon Kitna. OK, that makes sense. He is listed as the QB13 taken and going at an ADP of the 89th pick. Read a little bit about him and how was QB6 last year...yada, yada.. and I started thinking...why would all of these people be taking him at QB13 after picking up Calvin Johnson, another year in the system, etc? The answer is...they are not in fact. The information is incorrect. QB13? 89th overall? One minute later I found this at Antsports:First Name Last Name Pos Team ADP High Low StandardDeviation Drafts 1. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.02.83 1.05 2.12 04.61 23 2. Carson Palmer QB CIN 3.05.35 2.01 4.09 09.64 20 3. Tom Brady QB NEP 4.02.53 2.11 5.01 06.10 19 4. Drew Brees QB NOS 4.07.10 2.12 5.06 07.80 20 5. Marc Bulger QB STL 4.12.95 3.02 6.10 09.60 20 6. Donovan McNabb QB PHI 5.06.28 4.04 6.07 08.78 18 7. Jon Kitna QB DET 6.06.16 4.10 8.07 10.82 19 8. Tony Romo QB DAL 6.12.67 6.01 8.05 07.38 18 9. Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 7.03.68 5.10 8.09 08.80 19 10. Vince Young QB TEN 7.08.63 6.06 9.09 11.37 19 11. Matt Leinart QB ARI 8.04.28 6.12 9.08 08.37 18 Jon Kitna - QB7 average draft position is 66th overall. That is 6 QBs difference and 23 picks! Just to make people aware, Kitna will not be there at the 89th pick, he will have been drafted a 2 full rounds earlier on average.

Funny. When I got the FBG Magazine in the mail, I noticed the same thing in the Over/Under-Valuedarticle about Kitna but I chalked it up to being written months ago. I was hoping that their onlineversion would be updated to take into account current ADP and rankings.Maybe they'll revisit the article in a month or so to reflect the latest and greatest in value in ourdrafts. ???

 

[David Yudkin]

RE: Kitna

We were given a list of players and their ADPs. I don't know where the ADP info came from, but that's where he was listed.

As of today, MFL has him as the #15 QB and 98th pick overall, so that may be the source.

LINK

 

[Jason Wood]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

why does it matter so much whether it's a keeper league or a redraft league? I never really understood the hate for early drafts myself. If you're in a bunch of leagues, it's not always possible to draft them all in August. Much better to spread them out over May, June, July, and August.

I can buy into the idea that dynasty leagues start early because, for the most part, the main offseason activity revolves around the real NFL rookie draft. But in redraft leagues? Other than scheduling (for example, we have FESL as you know in July usually), why would you subject yourselves to the pains of inequity? It's inevitable that injuries are going to befall owners, but how ridiculous would it be to expose yourselves to an entire training camp that might derail an otherwise masterful draft? NFL players think there are too many preseason games, why would I think otherwise? Aside from the injury factor, there are going to be veteran cuts, signings, and most importantly, depth chart moves. To each his own on having drafts early, whatever floats your boat. But let's not forget that we can't be all things to all people, either. The vast majority of fantasy leaguers have their drafts in late August, early September.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

RE: Kitna

We were given a list of players and their ADPs. I don't know where the ADP info came from, but that's where he was listed.

As of today, MFL has him as the #15 QB and 98th pick overall, so that may be the source.

LINK

Ok, thanks for the info. The source I used was Antsports, Serious Mock Drafts, 12 team leagues, HP scoring, Flex players, TE-required, conducted between June 12th and July 2nd, with a 20 draft sample size. I know 20 drafts is not a lot, but it is at least very current. I just double-checked it with Mock Draft Central and they do not currently have him being mocked in the top 75 players, so that supports the footballguys and myfantasyleague numbers.

It is honestly pretty weird that he is all over the various real and mock draft results across different sites. Maybe the various mock draft sites skew the data by the way that they have players listed.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

#1, who has a redraft in July except people doing mocks or stuff for sites that will be republished as content?

umm...I've already completed quite a few drafts for redraft leagues (including No Mercy) and it's only July 2nd. may wind up having most of my drafts done by the end of July this year. So, I'm sure there are plenty of other people out there drafting now as well.

Why on Earth would you have a redraft in July? Keepers I understand, but redraft? Is it just a case of scheduling conflicts?

why does it matter so much whether it's a keeper league or a redraft league? I never really understood the hate for early drafts myself. If you're in a bunch of leagues, it's not always possible to draft them all in August. Much better to spread them out over May, June, July, and August.

I can buy into the idea that dynasty leagues start early because, for the most part, the main offseason activity revolves around the real NFL rookie draft. But in redraft leagues? Other than scheduling (for example, we have FESL as you know in July usually), why would you subject yourselves to the pains of inequity? It's inevitable that injuries are going to befall owners, but how ridiculous would it be to expose yourselves to an entire training camp that might derail an otherwise masterful draft? NFL players think there are too many preseason games, why would I think otherwise? Aside from the injury factor, there are going to be veteran cuts, signings, and most importantly, depth chart moves. To each his own on having drafts early, whatever floats your boat. But let's not forget that we can't be all things to all people, either. The vast majority of fantasy leaguers have their drafts in late August, early September.

injuries happen during the regular season too. starters lose their jobs, players get cut or traded, and some players disappoint and some surprise. all of that is part of the game. a player is just as likely to get injured in the first week of training camp as they are in week 13, just before the fantasy playoffs begin. I really don't think drafting the night before week 1 of the season is any better or worse than drafting in july as long as everybody is on a level playing field when the draft occurs.also, the post of yours I responded to mentioned keeper leagues, not dynasty. keeper leagues aren't that much different from redraft leagues, IMO. if you have to declare your keepers in march, april, may, or june, that's not much different than drafting during those time periods. nobody is saying we should be all things to all people, but I just don't understand why you would be so shocked that anyone would draft in June, much less July.

 

[The Man With No Name]

RE: Kitna

We were given a list of players and their ADPs. I don't know where the ADP info came from, but that's where he was listed.

As of today, MFL has him as the #15 QB and 98th pick overall, so that may be the source.

LINK

Doesn't that include dynasty leagues that initially drafted this year? Looks like it. Of course one wouldn't take Kitna very early in an initial dynasty league draft.

 

[David Yudkin]

RE: Kitna

We were given a list of players and their ADPs. I don't know where the ADP info came from, but that's where he was listed.

As of today, MFL has him as the #15 QB and 98th pick overall, so that may be the source.

LINK

Doesn't that include dynasty leagues that initially drafted this year? Looks like it. Of course one wouldn't take Kitna very early in an initial dynasty league draft.

IIRC, the list is sorted as "non keeper." If leagues did not enter their status correctly, then so be it . . .

 

[The Man With No Name]

RE: Kitna

We were given a list of players and their ADPs. I don't know where the ADP info came from, but that's where he was listed.

As of today, MFL has him as the #15 QB and 98th pick overall, so that may be the source.

LINK

Doesn't that include dynasty leagues that initially drafted this year? Looks like it. Of course one wouldn't take Kitna very early in an initial dynasty league draft.

IIRC, the list is sorted as "non keeper." If leagues did not enter their status correctly, then so be it . . .

Ok. Didn't see that. I was going by the "Leagues involved in this draft analysis" at the bottom has a lot of dynasty leagues listed.

 

[Wheelhouse]

Great article I love the roundtable format. Getting multiple opinions on particular players and situations really covers things from all angles. Well done, staff.

 

[Faust]

Great article I love the roundtable format. Getting multiple opinions on particular players and situations really covers things from all angles. Well done, staff.

 

[Faust]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

Thanks Jason. This gives me an insight on your thinking there and makes sense regarding not including him in the article.Plus they could sign Dillon between now and September to steal some carries too, and then the whole thing gets even blurrier.

Still early; however, here is a quick blurb from Sportingnews:RB Brandon Jackson, the team's second-round pick, has firmly moved into contention for the starting job even though he has not put on any pads for the team yet. Jackson has been everything the club thought he was when it took him out of Nebraska and intends to give him every shot to win the job from current starter Vernand Morency. Jackson has very quick feet and is capable of making sharp cuts in traffic. He won't run anyone over and doesn't have breakaway speed, but he appears to be the kind of back who can grind out yardage. His best asset might be catching the ball out of the backfield, which stands to be more of an element of the offense this year. ...

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Kitna just went at the 5.03 in an Antsports SMD I am in. Fair warning to most: He will not be a value pick in 2007, so do not plan to get him as one.

Dave

Leroy's Aces

 

[-OZ-]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

Sorry, thought you were asking who the 6th 2nd year starter was...maybe he meant Damon Huard?

It's really not a big deal, but the QBs mentioned in the overrated article were: Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Young, Alex Smith, Eli, McNabb, Brees, Culpepper, and Schaub. I think there are only 5 second year starters in the article.

Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Young, and I was including Schaub, although I shouldn't have.