Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
I nominate Rex Grossman. I took him in the last round (19) of my Dynasty league and is a top 3 QB so far.
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Steal of the draft so far? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Limp Dogg Bizkits
- Start date
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Grossman woul dhave to be the "so far" candidate, though Marques Colston probably gives him a run if he was drafted rather than acquired off the WW.
By the end of the year, though, my vote will be going to Frank Gore or Tatum Bell as the steals of the draft.
Lucking out on a late round QB is MUCH MUCH MUCH easier than lucking out with a 6th round or later RB becoming a top-5 RB.
By the end of the year, though, my vote will be going to Frank Gore or Tatum Bell as the steals of the draft.
Lucking out on a late round QB is MUCH MUCH MUCH easier than lucking out with a 6th round or later RB becoming a top-5 RB.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
There was even a CNBC story last week on Rex as a steal/went undrafted in fantasy drafts. They interviewed him talking about how people tell him they drafted him and he says, well, I don't really understand fantasy football, but thanks. 
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twistd
Footballguy
That is good. I think McNabb is a candidate. He is the best player in fantasy right now and I got him in the sixth round. He is the highest scorer in our league by far.
Ed Wood
Footballguy
videoguy505
Footballguy
Colston if he's TE-eligible. Grossman's a good one too. Both were undrafted in my league, however, (168 drafted) and on the WW until about week 2 or 3. Carr was a 14th round pick in my league. Frank Gore went in the 4th (ahead of C Taylor, J Lewis, T Jones), and T Bell went in the 5th (ahead of M Bell, De Williams, LD White, and Maroney). Maroney actually went in the 8th, and he's been doing well.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Gore went 4.7 in our draft, Bell 4.11
they both went in the 6th or later in all my drafts but one - Gore went at the end of the 5th in one draft.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
In my 2 leagues, McNabb is #1 and Rex is #3 overall.6th round vs 19th round. Have to give the nod to Rex.
redman
Footballguy
I got Gore at 2.14 in a serpentine, 28th overall. I'd be surprised if he went very late in most drafts.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Why if he's te eligible?A last round WR, or a WW WR, who is currently ranked 5th for WRs in non-PPR leagues and 9th in PPR leagues, Colston was a friggin' STEAL!!!!As much as Grossman, IMO.
jonessed
Footballguy
Gore and Bell never went outside of the third in any my drafts. Even the less experienced ones. Bell may still turn out to be a steal there, but I don't see how these guys were slipping past the 4th. Even if Bell was only to get 50% of Denver's carries he was still worth a 4th.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Our last ADP charts, 9/4, had him as the 45th overall player. That's the end of the 4th in 12 team drafts as an average draft spot - and that is a few days before the season opened.If you drafted anytime in August, he probably lasted into the 5th round at least."your" league is rarely representative of "most" leagues (not you, specifically, redman, just in general - fallacy is to think that the way "your" league works is the way "most" leagues work - that's why we gather the data we gather before the season).I got Gore at 2.14 in a serpentine, 28th overall. I'd be surprised if he went very late in most drafts.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Again - 9/4 combined ADP had Mike Bell 54 overall and Tatum at 68.'nuff said.Gore and Bell never went outside of the third in any my drafts. Even the less experienced ones. Bell may still turn out to be a steal there, but I don't see how these guys were slipping past the 4th. Even if Bell was only to get 50% of Denver's carries he was still worth a 4th.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
P.S. - I got Tatum at the end of the 6th in a LIVE DENVER-BASED draft.
once again, "your leagues" is not the way "most leagues" work.
once again, "your leagues" is not the way "most leagues" work.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
off the top of my head, i will have to say Alex Smith (QB).
he was drafted in the 25th round (IDP league) and if played each week would be in the top 10 for FF QB scoring.
he was drafted in the 25th round (IDP league) and if played each week would be in the top 10 for FF QB scoring.
jonessed
Footballguy
Tatum went three rounds before Mike in my more experienced league. I put Mike behind Tatum and I was reasonably sure they would split carries just because I knew Tatum would get at least half of the load. Cobbs was still in the picture with Mike. At worst Tatum was a RB3. Anyway, ADP is screwy sometimes. I don't know anyone that thought Terry Glenn was a 7th round pick, but his ADP was somewhere around there. I got him once in the 5th and someone nabbed him just before me in the 5th in another draft.Again - 9/4 combined ADP had Mike Bell 54 overall and Tatum at 68.'nuff said.Gore and Bell never went outside of the third in any my drafts. Even the less experienced ones. Bell may still turn out to be a steal there, but I don't see how these guys were slipping past the 4th. Even if Bell was only to get 50% of Denver's carries he was still worth a 4th.
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Disco Stu
Confirmed FBGal
You just lost me. So your league isn't part of "your leagues" it's part of "most leagues"? 
oukurt
Footballguy
This is the correct answer.Grossman and Deuce are close.
salmonstud
Footballguy
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
No - according to ADP and the fact I was in Denver, Tatum probably should have gone EARLIER than I took him. My league is representative of "most" leagues, though, b/c Tatum went near his combined ADP.The fallacy is when someone says Tatum went in the third round in my league, so he should have been gone by the fourth in most leagues.
The ADP charts we keep are a compilation of three or four ADP lists (depending on how often the ADP lists are updated or starting to be kept). Therefore, the ADP charts we keep are a good reflection of "most leagues" They are not mock drafts, but REAL league drafts. Our ADP charts are a good representaiton of where those players go in "most" drafts.
For a player to have a 6th round ADP on our combined ADP list, there are (obviously) SOME drafts he goes much higher than 6th and SOME drafts he goes much lower than 6th - so, your draft is not representative of most drafts. The specific does not prove the general - that's a logical fallacy that many on these boards make regarding ADP.
Tatum had a 6th round ADP. I took him in the late 6th in my denver based draft, where you would figure folks would take a bigger chance on Denver players. For someone to say "he went in my league in the 3rd, and he shouldn't have fallen past the 4th in 'MOST' drafts" is a straight up fallacy - a fallacy that is not supported by either the general numbers, or by my specific example.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
GREAT call.Deuce has been an amazing mid to late round RB steal.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
If we're adding in all WW players, we open a whole new can of worms, but I don't think the names will change much.
Colston was not drafted in my league -if he was drafted in yours, he's gotta be as big a steal of your draft as Grossman or Deuce.
Colston was not drafted in my league -if he was drafted in yours, he's gotta be as big a steal of your draft as Grossman or Deuce.
digitalamish
Footballguy
How about those who took the chance on Portis?
Let's not forget F. Gore too.
Let's not forget F. Gore too.
Gore went in the 2nd round in my 12-teamer
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Tatum Bell hasn't even produced that well yet (he is the 26th ranked RB in the league I play in), so I think calling him one of the biggest steals of the draft is a bit premature. Most are probably assuming he will put up typical Denver featured RB numbers the rest of the way.
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redman
Footballguy
Well, we have a very late draft; we actually had ours the Saturday of the opening weekend, in other words two days after the Thursday night Kickoff Game.I'd also point out that I was convinced by the discussion in here that drafting him was a good idea.Our last ADP charts, 9/4, had him as the 45th overall player. That's the end of the 4th in 12 team drafts as an average draft spot - and that is a few days before the season opened.If you drafted anytime in August, he probably lasted into the 5th round at least."your" league is rarely representative of "most" leagues (not you, specifically, redman, just in general - fallacy is to think that the way "your" league works is the way "most" leagues work - that's why we gather the data we gather before the season).I got Gore at 2.14 in a serpentine, 28th overall. I'd be surprised if he went very late in most drafts.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Portis shouldn't have fall out of the first round - impossible to be a steal in the first round.Frank Gore was mentioned.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
Lets assume that you passed on McNabb in the 6th round and drafted player A. Then drafted Rex in the last round. I would feel pretty comfortable saying that Rex plus player A > McNabb and average 19th round pick.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Well, if you read above, I said that by the end of the yearmy vote will porobably go to either TBell or FGore.Then a whole bunch of folks jumped in on TBell's ADPThat said - 26th??? Must be TD-based (or heavy PPR). Under standard FBG scoring of 1/10 and 6/TD, he's the 18th RB.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
The above combo is the question you have to ask yourself - in the 6th you might very well have taken Deuce instead of McNabb. Then grabbed Rex in the last round.Would you take the Grossman/Deuce combo over McNabb?
Callas Disregard
Footballguy
Funny, considering FBGs was screaming to stay away from Portis because of his shoulder and the Duckett signing.BTW, how far back do the ADP lists look? If FBGs is using ADP lists consisting of ALL drafts, then it's incorporating drafts from too early in the preseason to be worth much. I doubt Frank Gore was going in the 6th round of many drafts after Barlow went to the Jets.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Our league is .1 for every yard (so if a RB runs for 98 yards, he gets 9.8 points), with a 5-point bonus at a 100 yards. And RB's get .25 points for every reception.Also, bonus points are given for longer touchdowns. Bell has yet to score at all this season, but you have to think he will break a few pretty soon, and then he will vault up the rankings.
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redman
Footballguy
I'm sure the staff can defend themselves, however the drop of Portis to RB28 was made in the 24 hours after Duckett was acquired, when nobody knew what Portis' injury was going to mean. It was subsequently revised upwards - within 36 hours after that - to RB 12. No critics seems to remember that last part.
JohnW1970
Footballguy
I'm in a 14 team keeper/auction draft. I got Jennings for $1 at end of draft. Signed him for 4 years, thats looking good so far. Also have Colston as a WW pickup after week 1. Those two have been money so far. And trading Dom Davis for Javon Walker at a steal of an auction price before preseason, that is priceless.
AngryGorilla
Footballguy
I got McNabb at 6.08 and G. Jennings @ 18.08
15 player league, 18 man redraft.
Tatum went 5.07
Colston and Berrian were undrafted
15 player league, 18 man redraft.
Tatum went 5.07
Colston and Berrian were undrafted
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
*I* wasn't.I dropped him all of three spots when he hurt his shoulder - from #4 to #7.I am not responsible for what other FBGuys might post.Callas Disregard said:
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
redman said:
Correct.And that was on Dodds' OVERALL top-250 charts, not on our combined rankings list. The "staff" does their own rankings in the preseason, and I don't recall anyone other than David dropping him below the #10RB.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
It is a running compilation of three or four major ADP lists that keep track of REAL LEAGUES.A player's motion upwards or downwards from the previous list (percentage change) is the thing to keep an eye on.While a large percentage of drafts take place late in the preseason games, why are real leagues' drafts form early in the preseason not VALID in a steal of the draft thread?Itr is pretty piss-poor stat gathering to say that only drafts that took place in the last week in Aug, and first week in Sept are the ones that count.But, for shizza and giggla, I checked Antsports real leagues drafted from Aug. 15 through Sept. 15. Gore came in at 4.07 and TBell came in at 6.01 (Mike Bell was at 5.06). That is right in line with our 9/4 combined ADP numbers (Gore at 48-ish overall and TBell at 68-ish).Callas Disregard said:
videoguy505
Footballguy
Just because it's debatable if Colston's a WR over the whole season--WRs go up and down and I think over the course of the next few weeks his value can flux, enough that some could argue Grossman or Berrian or Jennings or Tatum.But as a TE, it's hands down since it allows so much for the roster of the owner who has him.Marc Levin said:
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
The question was who is a steal NOW - and as a late round WR, he's as much as steal RIGHT NOW at WR as Grossman is at QB.I am less confident of Grossman maintaining a top-3 QB ranking once the snows and cold winds hit Bear Stadium than Colston maintaining a top-10 WR ranking in the Supa Dome. 
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
P.S. - it is NOT debatable if Colston is a WR this season - that is what he is. There is a Yahoo glitch that allows him to be played as a TE.
