Strategy for drafting a Safety? (1 Viewer)

[Macdaddy_2004]

I inherited a dynasty franchise with IDP - my safeties are Yeremiah Bell and Nate Allen - I'm really new to IDP and I am trying to take it one step at a time - so looking to improve my safetys.........what do you generally look for - a safety who plays on a team with a poor run defence?

The top 10 safetys in my league from week 4-9 are

Wilson, George BUF S

Babineaux, Jordan TEN S

Peprah, Charlie GBP S

Bethea, Antoine IND S

Bell, Yeremiah MIA S

Harper, Roman NOS S

Stewart, Darian STL S

Byrd, Jairus BUF S

Weddle, Eric SDC S

Goldson, Dashon SFO S

Do these guys hold their value from year to year like RB's?

 

[tonka]

Most safeties definitely don't hold their value from year to year (I would argue running backs are the same, although you seem to have specifically mentioned running backs as a position that holds value). In fact, there is possibly no position in fantasy football that sees more turnover than safety.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

So what's the general advice at safety - get talent or is opportunity more important?

Is Nate Allen a guy that could be top10 next year?

 

[Shane Falco]

opportunity

I have been churning safety the last couple years. Read the stuff here, find a guy like Wilson or Chancellor, sign them to a 2 year deal and let someone else overpay for him in my league's RFA a couple years later

Rinse

Repeat

 

[Shane Falco]

Wilson, George BUF S- good this year, maybe next

Babineaux, Jordan TEN S- stopgap for this year only, playing in place of C. Hope

Peprah, Charlie GBP S- stopgap for this year only, playing in place of N. Collins

Bethea, Antoine IND S- has been very good

Bell, Yeremiah MIA S- has been very good but may be winding down

Harper, Roman NOS S- has been good

Stewart, Darian STL S- may be in the next batch of valuble DBs, I've been buying

Byrd, Jairus BUF S- not terribly consitent but OK

Weddle, Eric SDC S- has been good

Goldson, Dashon SFO S- done

IMO

 

[5-ish Finkle]

My opinions:

Do these guys hold their value from year to year like RB's?

The "top 5" guys tend to hold their value year to year better than the rest(and even they aren't immune to variance due to scheme change/etc), but outside of that handful you can typically find a host of startable DBs on most league's waiver wires in any given week. In my IDP leagues, where I wasn't able to land one of those "must start" options, I've consistently just streamed DBs and have done reasonably well. It can be a bit more work, and sometimes you have to look a couple weeks ahead for matchups to make sure you're "getting your man", but otherwise it's not too bad.

So what's the general advice at safety - get talent or is opportunity more important?

I'm of the opinion that opportunity is ultimately the most important when you're discussing DBs outside the top 5-6. A "fantastic" in the box S is likely to be nowhere near as valuable as a "bad" in the box S on a a team with a bad offense. The guy on the team with a bad offense is very likely to receive a significantly greater amount of opportunities for tackles/turnovers during the course of the season.Bottom line: I don't put a lot of value into DBs on my IDP rosters. Unless it's a very unique scoring system they tend to be pretty fungible(again, outside the top 5-6). Every NFL team is starting at least 4 of them, and many roll out 5 frequently, so there's a pretty large pool of viable scorers to pull from. Even if we're only talking Safeties it's pretty much the same. The number of starting safeties required in the NFL is > the number of starting safeties required in most fantasy leagues. Should equate to a lot of startable talent being left out on the WW free for the taking.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Let's just say I drafted Berry and Ward this year. And they were the first two safeties to go in our draft. Look how that turned out.

 

[tonka]

Never be the first guy in your league to take a safety. Or the second. You can always find great value later in the draft (and on the waiver wire).

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

In our league we have to start two DBs (either CB or Safety, no distinction). With few exceptions I always target a Strong Safety on a team with mediocre DLs...even better on wak teams where their opponent is usually playig from ahead thus more rushing attempts. Sure you will get you occassional tackle mosnter at DB, but most of your tackle number will come from SS. Now, if you league awards points for passes defensed then you might was to consider a few FS as well.

 

[Shutout]

Its a crapshoot. My best safety on my teams the last 3-4 years is a guy I picked up off a waiver wire the week before the season started (Yeremiah Bell). He has been arguably one of the most consistent safeties the past few years and I find no rhyme or reason to it; I simply picked him up on a hunch and the fact he played college at a local school..

 

[lyon812]

There are few safeties that hold value from year to year. Really, there's probably only about 10 DBs a year that you can plug in and forget for the rest of the year, and invariably some of them will disappoint. In general, I try to identify short-term solutions that share these traits:

-Safeties that spend significant snaps in run support. Usually SS, of course, but not every SS. It depends on scheme.

-Safeties on teams with weak tackling LB corps, because otherwise LB will suck up tackle opportunities.

-Safeties on teams that like to blitz or preach aggressive philosophies. Sacks and forced fumbles can go a long way towards mitigating those DB clunker weeks, whereas some DBs settle into a very boring 3-0-0 routine with no chance of ever doing anything to spike their production.

I've had a lot of luck basing my drafts on those characteristics, and letting other people chase DBs that may have more points, but have been a one-year wonder. This year, for example, I went after George Wilson and Kam Chancellor in almost every league--and got them, while everyone else was taking more familiar names.

Regarding talent/opportunity, I've always felt talent is less necessary the further back you go in the defensive backfield. I think DLs require the most talent to be effective, LBs slightly less. DBs, however, often suck. They get tackles because they are relentlessly targeted or run at by offenses that perceive them as a weak link. You should familiarize yourself with the "rookie corner rule", and always be on the watch out for new starters that may be one-year godsends. Sometimes, even shorter periods of time. A.J. Jefferson was awesome for me the weeks he was returning kicks, but I didn't hesitate to drop him once Stephens-Howling came back and reclaimed his job. You should almost always find a mass of serviceable DBs on the waiver wire. The best suggestion is 1) don't trust interceptions, 2) figure out how many snaps they play/what role they play, and 3) be aware of who they've played already. Picking up a nickel back with a lot of tackles is great, but if they just played Green Bay and New Orleans, their stats may be severely skewed.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I'm in a very large dynasty league. Each week there are 96 db's started in our league (cornerback/safety). There are many more rostered. It's still been possible to find decent options off the ww. That cannot be said for any other position. It really is the most overrated of spots in most fantasy leagues.

They don't retain their value nearly as well as other positions. As mentioned above, it's a good idea to grab one from a team with crappy linebackers.