Suicide Pool Strategy/Discussion for Week 13 (1 Viewer)

[Lehigh98]

Survivor Grid

P.S. Hover your pointer over the opponent in any week for that game's current/predicted spread.

Detroit at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET

-13.0 42.0 O/U

San Diego at Cleveland, 4:05 PM ET

+13.0 43.0 O/U

Oakland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET

-11.5 36.5 O/U

New Orleans at Washington, 1:00 PM ET

+9.5 48.0 O/U

St. Louis at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET

-9.0 41.0 O/U

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET

-7.0 47.0 O/U

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET

-6.5 42.0 O/U

New England at Miami, 1:00 PM ET

+5.0 n/a 46.5 O/U

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET

+4.5 n/a 44.5 O/U

Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET

+4.5 38.0 O/U

Baltimore at Green Bay, 8:30 PM ET

-3.0 43.5 O/U

New York (A) at Buffalo, 8:20 PM ET

+3.0 37.0 O/U

Dallas at New York (N), 4:15 PM ET

-1.0 45.0 O/U

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:15 PM ET

-0.0 41.0 O/U

Minnesota at Arizona, 8:20 PM ET

-0.0 49.0 O/U

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET

-0.0 47.0 O/U

 

[Lehigh98]

Right now thinking of sticking with the plan...

Now potentially looking at...

Week 1: BAL vs KC

Week 2: WAS vs STL

Week 3: NYG @ TB

Week 4: SF vs STL

Week 5: PHI vs TB

Week 6: GB vs DET

Week 7: IND @ STL

Week 8: SD vs OAK

Week 9: ATL vs WAS

Week 10: MIN vs DET

Week 11: NO @ TB

Week 12: DAL vs OAK

Week 13: PIT vs OAK or use CIN vs DET and save PIT for @CLE next week?

Week 14: NE vs CAR

Week 15: DEN vs OAK (or SEA vs TB)

Week 16: CIN vs KC

Week 17: Whoever has something to play for vs someone who doesn't

(Subject to shuffling as the year develops if I'm still in the pool)

 

[Your Mom]

I like the Bengals this week.

Want to use them now in case they rest guys later on.

You got SF and Tenn with a nice matchup in the coming weeks, so I think Cincy is the play this week. If you don't have Cincy, then Pitt is a good choice also.

 

[MCguidance]

Taking the Bengals this week.

 

[zed2283]

I've still got the Chargers and planning to use them.

 

[Pyscho Wife]

Taking the Bengals this week.

 

[LadyBeBop]

Can't believe I'm doing this. After saying that I would never trust them to win or lose in any given week.

That said...I'm going with my beloved Cincinnati Bengals.

I was thinking about Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure about Big Ben. I used most of the other favorites already. That just leaves me with the Bengals.

 

[Lehigh98]

http://vegaswatch.net/

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 13

Cincinnati (vs. Detroit)

The Bengals are a very strong option at home against the Lions, favored by 13 and 84.3% to win according to the Pinnacle odds. They're also a very obvious option though, causing nearly 40% of the OFP population to pick them. That fact, along with the future value they still have in their Week 16 game against the Chiefs, makes continuing to look for a second option very much worthwhile.

San Diego (at Cleveland)

I've already used the Chargers, who are -13 themselves, although only 83.0% to win. San Diego is way less popular than Cincy, but has more future value, hosting the Redskins in Week 17. The Chargers are quite popular at the consensus sites, but given the uncertainty surrounding Week 17, and their lack of popularity in OFP relative to the Bengals, I think they're the better option between the two, not that it matters for my purposes.

Pittsburgh (vs. Oakland)

It took Pinnacle forever to release a line on this game, but it looks like Roethlisberger is going to play, so the Steelers are favored by 14. That's excellent news, since they're barely half as popular in OFP as the Bengals despite being more likely to win. There is some value in saving Pittsburgh, as their visit to Cleveland is one of the best options on next week's card. But there is a clearly superior option, with the Ravens hosting the Lions.

Baltimore becomes even more attractive after considering how few people still have them available, so there's no sense in saving the Steelers if using them next week is extremely unlikely, since their final three games (vs. GB, vs. BAL, @MIA) are pretty tough.

Chicago (vs. St. Louis)

The Bears are a reasonable enough option if you've already used each of the three teams above. They're favored by 9.5, 80.6% to win, and aren't all that popular in OFP. They do have some future value, when they visit Detroit in W17, but not a ton.

Denver (at Kansas City)

The Broncos are only favored by 4.5, and are under 67% to win. Don't pick them.

New Orleans (at Washington)

I've already used the Saints, who are favored by 9.5 in DC. If you're stuck picking between them and the Bears, Chicago is a better option since they're slightly more likely to win, and the Saints are going to be huge favorites at home against Tampa Bay in Week 16.

My options basically come down to the Bengals and Steelers, and for the reasons presented above I think Pittsburgh is the obvious choice this week. The only way I'd change that is if it was announced Roethlisberger wasn't going to play, or if the line moved significantly; if the Steelers are -14 when your deadline comes around, I'd definitely take them.

 

[Lehigh98]

Using Survivor Grid I looked at future point spreads down the stretch.

Taking the highest spread for each week among the teams I have left (no overlap fortunately) I get...

Week 13: PIT vs OAK (-14)

Week 14: TEN vs STL (-13.5)

Week 15: ARI @ DET (-13.5)

Week 16: NE vs JAX (-12.5)

Week 17: DEN vs KC (-7)

Thoughts?

 

[aburt19]

Pittsburgh this week.

 

[TC]

Used: BAL WAS DAL HOU NYG GB IND SD SEA MIA MIN CIN

I agree. PIT.

 

[fierce_corgi]

Chargers this week, saving Pitt for next week (both weeks against Cleveland).

 

[Lehigh98]

http://survivingonsunday.blogspot.com/

CIN vs DET

Lots of people taking the Bengals, and its not a bad idea. The Lions had 10 days off, but now going into Cincy in the cold against a team that has a good defense, I don't see the upset happening. The Bengals have only won by a large margin once, against the other NFC north opponent to come to Cincy.

Cincy does have a good game against KC in week 16, so if you have other options this week and not many options for then, save Cincy. I don't love the week 16 match up coming off 2 road games at MIN and SD, so I would rather take them this week.

OAK @ PIT

Congrats if you have PIT. They are in CLE next week too, both good match ups, but I will be taking them this week. This is my #1 game of the week.

STL @ CHI

I don't like this game at all for the Bears. They haven't been playing well, and it seems like the Rams are at least trying. It's a big spread but I wouldn't be surprised to see a field goal game.

SD @ CLE

I can't see an upset happening here, but a west coast team flying east, playing in 30 degree weather doesn't bode well. SD still has WAS in week 17.

TB @ CAR

I don't suggest anyone take this game unless absolutely necessary. The Panthers seem to have quit, they know they aren't making the playoffs and after this week will play NE, MIN, NYG and MIN. They know they are done. Will they show up this week? I don't know. The 2 big wins for the Panthers have been when they had no turnovers. Moore needs to play safe and the RBs need to hold on to the ball for CAR to win.

TB has been playing much better since Freeman came in, but you have to wonder when they will get discouraged. They lost to MIA on a last minute 70 yard drive after having the lead; lost to NO and gave up in the 2nd half; and lost to ATL where they had the lead and coach lost it for them. I am not sure when they will get demoralized either.

KC @ DEN

The way DEN played last Thursday showed they can be for real if they want to. With 10 days off I would expect them to easily beat KC. But DEN hasn't been good in KC in December, and Vegas put the line at -4.5 for Denver and haven't moved it even though 70%+ have taken DEN.. I would save DEN for the OAK match up, or week 17.

NO @ WAS

Congrats if you still have the Saints but this is not the week to take them. Emotional Monday night win now playing in WAS who has played well at home and has a decent D. Save them for TB again.

I wouldn't suggest taking any of the other games.

 

[Raider Nation]

Pitt bounced another 17 people from my big money pool. And then there were 38........



My Raiders have to be responsible for more people getting booted this year than any other team:

Beat Philly

Beat Cincy

Beat Pittsburgh

 

[Raider Nation]

Didn't want to start the W14 thread yet... Lehigh does a good job with it. But a quick thought.

Everybody, and I mean everybody figures to take Tennessee against the Rams next week.

It's the perfect storm.

- Tennessee needs the game to stay alive.

- The Rams are awful.

- Nobody has used the Titans yet.

Am I nuts for considering the Jets (@ Tampa) or Houston (vs. Seattle) instead?

It's ballsy/stupid, but *IF* Vince has one of his trademark games where he is a turnover machine, and that could happen against the pressure defense Spags brings, then 90% of the people remaining in pools would be done.

Two problems with that, however. St. Louis can't score, and you'd have to pick a winning team yourself.

Thoughts?

 

[Raider Nation]

Using Survivor Grid I looked at future point spreads down the stretch.

Taking the highest spread for each week among the teams I have left (no overlap fortunately) I get...

Week 13: PIT vs OAK (-14)

Week 14: TEN vs STL (-13.5)

Week 15: ARI @ DET (-13.5)

Week 16: NE vs JAX (-12.5)

Week 17: DEN vs KC (-7)

Thoughts?

Uh oh... looks like I might be starting the W14 thread after all.

 

[glumpy]

Didn't want to start the W14 thread yet... Lehigh does a good job with it. But a quick thought.Everybody, and I mean everybody figures to take Tennessee against the Rams next week. It's the perfect storm. - Tennessee needs the game to stay alive. - The Rams are awful. - Nobody has used the Titans yet.Am I nuts for considering the Jets (@ Tampa) or Houston (vs. Seattle) instead?It's ballsy/stupid, but *IF* Vince has one of his trademark games where he is a turnover machine, and that could happen against the pressure defense Spags brings, then 90% of the people remaining in pools would be done.Two problems with that, however. St. Louis can't score, and you'd have to pick a winning team yourself.Thoughts?

The alternative I was looking at was Carolina at NE, since I hadn't spent them and figured they would be heavily favored. "Was" looking at--went with Pitt myself, wanting to reserve Cincy for week 16.

 

[Lehigh98]

Using Survivor Grid I looked at future point spreads down the stretch.

Taking the highest spread for each week among the teams I have left (no overlap fortunately) I get...

Week 13: PIT vs OAK (-14)

Week 14: TEN vs STL (-13.5)

Week 15: ARI @ DET (-13.5)

Week 16: NE vs JAX (-12.5)

Week 17: DEN vs KC (-7)

Thoughts?

Uh oh... looks like I might be starting the W14 thread after all.

 

[Challenge Everything]

This is my list from this year that I have been playing. Sadly, no money at stake but one thing I have followed is picking the team that plays at home. I believe I have 13 home teams in this list. It appears for week 14 I might have to deviate from the home team scenario. Houston, Tennessee, and Oakland look like decent home field teams to go with, with the thinking that most others have been used up all ready. With Pittsburgh and the Jets looking to be the "better" of the road teams, thinking that they might not have been used yet either.

GBP

WAS

BAL

IND

MIN

PIT

HOU

CHI

NOS

ARI

NEP

DAL

CIN

 

[zed2283]

Didn't want to start the W14 thread yet... Lehigh does a good job with it. But a quick thought.Everybody, and I mean everybody figures to take Tennessee against the Rams next week. It's the perfect storm. - Tennessee needs the game to stay alive. - The Rams are awful. - Nobody has used the Titans yet.Am I nuts for considering the Jets (@ Tampa) or Houston (vs. Seattle) instead?It's ballsy/stupid, but *IF* Vince has one of his trademark games where he is a turnover machine, and that could happen against the pressure defense Spags brings, then 90% of the people remaining in pools would be done.Two problems with that, however. St. Louis can't score, and you'd have to pick a winning team yourself.Thoughts?

I was originally (several weeks ago) going to go Jets this week, but I simply do not trust them at this point. The Texans are an option, but I don't feel like I have a good handle on them either.So I'm going Titans. They got on a roll with Vince, and I don't think it hurts at all that they lost to the Colts this week. It might even give them a little more focus. I don't know that they can stop S.Jackson, or if their defense is any good at all, but I can't see the Rams stopping them on offense.Already used Steelers, Ravens, and Patriots.

 

[eoMMan]

NE at home against Carolina or Tenn at home against St. Louis?

I'm not touching Pitt.

 

[zed2283]

NE at home against Carolina or Tenn at home against St. Louis?I'm not touching Pitt.

Good call.