***Super Bowl XLII Picks*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.

Well, it's been a long year. Sad to see it go, but all good things do come to an end. I've had some fun with this thread / topic, and I hope you enjoyed them as well.

One game left, let's talk about it:



Let's go:



Super Bowl XLII - New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Current Lines:

New England (-12)

Over / Under (54 to 54.5)

It's interesting to say the least that the Giants are viewed right now as the "hot" team. You would think that a team that hasn't lost a game in over a year might be considered on a roll, but to each their own.

As always, the games do come down to matchup.



Patriots Run Offense vs. Giants Run Defense - The LBs are at a disadvantage here. Maroney has quietly been on a roll in his own right, racking up two 100+ yard games, and the weakest link all year for the G-men D has been at LB. Advantage goes to the Pats, but not by a huge margin due to their predilection to pass.

Patriots Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense - This comes down to the protection of Brady. If Strahan and Osi visit Brady often, there could be some mistakes (and turnovers) coming. If not, Brady rips the secondary apart.

Giants Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense - Once again, the LBs are at a disadvantage here. The combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw should be too much for Bruschi and Seau, with the pounding from BJ and the speed / quickness / elusiveness of Bradshaw. Harrison will come up to support, but the edge goes to the Giants.

Giants Pass Offense vs. Patriots Pass Defense - Eli - can he continue to not make mistakes? I expect pressure to come into his face early to try and rattle him. Samuel can cover Burress, so look for Toomer and Boss to have to step up. I don't think the matchups favor New York. Edge Pats.

Special Teams - Gostkowski had a better year, and Welker is a very good returner. Hixon has shown speed, but I'd favor Gosty over Tynes. No appreciable difference though - so call it even.

Coaching - Both coaches know how to get their teams ready, but there's no question that Belicheck is at the top of his (and the) game. Edge Pats.

Biggest matchup to watch? The pass rush of the Giants when Brady has the ball, and then how New England stops the run. Turnovers will dictate the winner of this game most likely, as will big plays. New England has made more mistakes of late, but odds are that Brady performs well on the big stage.

Lastly, while many are expecting that the Giants will hang tough with the Patriots, keep this in mind. New England has not played a game in over 50 degrees since Week 8. Since then the temperatures have been between 44 and 23 degrees at kickoff, including a number of games with blustery (20+ MPH) winds. That big breeze is like a 12th defender against Moss on the deep ball.

So what happened in those first 8 games? New England scored 331 points (41+ PPG) while only giving up 127 (<16 PPG).

That's about where I have this game, which will be played in Arizona (likely under the roof).

Final score: New England 41, New York Giants 13.

I'd say Welker, Moss, Maroney, Gaffney and Moss again for the NE TDs (but don't count out Vrabel), while Jacobs should get one.

So - I favor the Patriots (-12) for 2 stars and the Over Total of 54 by 1 star, only because it might be a little higher on either end.

My best bet is New England and the Over in some form of teaser, such as a 6-point, as NE-6 / Over 48 sounds pretty good. I'd give that the 2-stars as well.

Enjoy the game.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

IBTM

Giants Cover - write it down

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If anyone has interesting Prop bets, we can also talk about 'em. I haven't really looked.

 

[NorrisB]

 

[DanFouts]

What's the over under on # of Eli INTs......

I think he throws 3 ( I know, "none in the post season).....

I also think about a 45% chance he throws his first one right after the announcer tells us that fact....

 

[Modog814]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.

Compare:

NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAS

to

INDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SD

That said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28.

Props:

A couple looks interesting to me:

Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.

Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

 

[PatsFan72]

Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I think you're missing a lot of factors in your analysis. One is the doubles on Moss, than the weather, and the fact that other things were working so they didn't need to feed Moss.Also keep in mind that Burress hasn't practiced the last couple days due to knee and ankle injuries (not sure about today), so he will probably not be 100%, and New England has a nice little pass rush of their own, with some good players in the secondary, and a few masterminds telling them where to look and line-up.

I know this won't be a surprise to anyone, but this Patriots' homer thinks it will be a blow-out.

10 Giants

53 Patriots

Prediction for the 1st Giants' play. They make it look like a long pass in the pre-snap, then set up a screen pass off that, with a long option. If the long play is there, that's where they will try to go 1st.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.Compare:NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAStoINDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SDThat said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28. Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I'm thinking you're going to not sleep well Sunday.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.

Bucking every trend. Good luck with that.I couldn't see taking Jacobs when there's a very realistic chance that (A) Bradshaw steals many carries and (B) NY trails and must throw.

Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

Just like Week 17? Moss 6-100-2.....

 

[Modog814]

Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.

Bucking every trend. Good luck with that.I couldn't see taking Jacobs when there's a very realistic chance that (A) Bradshaw steals many carries and (B) NY trails and must throw.

Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

Just like Week 17? Moss 6-100-2.....

Burress 4-84-2 = winner Yes I think Bradshaw gets some carries but Jacobs did have 15-67 vs NE in week 17. I think having a speedier Bradshaw will ultimately help Jacobs because he'll be tiring out those aging LB's of NE. And if as you say "NY trails and must throw" that only increases my chance of winning the Burress bet.

 

[Modog814]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.Compare:NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAStoINDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SDThat said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28. Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I'm thinking you're going to not sleep well Sunday.

Please expand. I'm sure you have more to offer than that.

 

[Mik789fl]

I called a Giants victory in another thread last week. I'm sticking to it. IMOP. The Giants will be able to run the ball enough to keep the Pats D honest. Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball. He wants to control the clock and keep Brady off the field. Look for a short passing game and Jacobs early with Bradshaw late.Of course the key on defense is pressure on Brady,Spags will change up the blitzes and coverages looking to get a rush up the middle,if The Giants D can do that they'll keep the game close. The Giants can keep the Pats running game in check I think. The longer the game stays close the better The Giants chances. I'll give The Jersey Boys a 27-24 win. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.Compare:NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAStoINDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SDThat said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28. Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I'm thinking you're going to not sleep well Sunday.

Please expand. I'm sure you have more to offer than that.

I believe I've commented already on my expected outcome of the game. Pats go up early and stay there.As for your props, I also mentioned those above.

 

[Modog814]

Best of luck to you then.

 

[PatsFan72]

. . . Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball. He wants to control the clock and keep Brady off the field. . .

Really? You're actually attempting to deduce the Giants game plan by Coughlin receiving if they win the coin toss?Really?Put down the Blue Kool-Aid.

 

[LILB811]

Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball.

Good rationale if there's another coin toss at halftime.

 

[Modog814]

Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball.

Good rationale if there's another coin toss at halftime.

I think by Defer he means take the wind direction. Anyway, if the Giants win the toss and choose to go with the wind (allowing NE to take the ball) then after halftime, it's still NE's choice at the start of the 2nd half so then they can take the ball again.1. The toss of coin will take place within three minutes of kickoff in center of field. The toss will be called by the visiting captain. The winner may choose one of two privileges and the loser gets the other:

(a) Receive or kick

(b) Goal his team will defend

2. Immediately prior to the start of the second half, the captains of both teams must inform the officials of their respective choices. The loser of the original coin toss gets first choice.

 

[LILB811]

Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball.

Good rationale if there's another coin toss at halftime.

I think by Defer he means take the wind direction. Anyway, if the Giants win the toss and choose to go with the wind (allowing NE to take the ball) then after halftime, it's still NE's choice at the start of the 2nd half so then they can take the ball again.1. The toss of coin will take place within three minutes of kickoff in center of field. The toss will be called by the visiting captain. The winner may choose one of two privileges and the loser gets the other:

(a) Receive or kick

(b) Goal his team will defend

2. Immediately prior to the start of the second half, the captains of both teams must inform the officials of their respective choices. The loser of the original coin toss gets first choice.

If this is true, then why do teams ever choose to kick to start a game if the other team could get the ball again at the start of the 2nd half. Seriously?Also, I don't think there will be any wind Sunday.

 

[Modog814]

Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball.

Good rationale if there's another coin toss at halftime.

I think by Defer he means take the wind direction. Anyway, if the Giants win the toss and choose to go with the wind (allowing NE to take the ball) then after halftime, it's still NE's choice at the start of the 2nd half so then they can take the ball again.1. The toss of coin will take place within three minutes of kickoff in center of field. The toss will be called by the visiting captain. The winner may choose one of two privileges and the loser gets the other:

(a) Receive or kick

(b) Goal his team will defend

2. Immediately prior to the start of the second half, the captains of both teams must inform the officials of their respective choices. The loser of the original coin toss gets first choice.

If this is true, then why do teams ever choose to kick to start a game if the other team could get the ball again at the start of the 2nd half. Seriously?Also, I don't think there will be any wind Sunday.

I can't recall ever seeing a team choose to kick to start a game.And I agree, I don't think the wind will be a factor on Sunday.

ETA: Link http://www.nfl.com/rulebook/cointoss

 

[LILB811]

Apparently that only applies in college where you can win the toss, choose to kick, and then get the ball in the 2nd half. Something I was completely unaware of (and apparently the guy asking Coughlin was as well). My apologies

 

[Modog814]

Apparently that only applies in college where you can win the toss, choose to kick, and then get the ball in the 2nd half. Something I was completely unaware of (and apparently the guy asking Coughlin was as well). My apologies

I think in college, you can actually defer (in the NFL you can't) so basically you're choosing we want to pick in the 2nd half.

 

[jgb95]

PATS - 38

GIANTS - 20

 

[Jeff Haseley]

If anyone has interesting Prop bets, we can also talk about 'em. I haven't really looked.

Here's a good O/u props betTyler Hansbrough total points + rebounds at Florida State (2pm start) on Sunday vs. New England's total points scored. I think my lean is towards the Patriots total points here.

By the way Jeff - I think you nailed the preview of this game. Great write-up. I nearly agree with you on all counts of the matchups, etc. We'll see what happens.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If anyone has interesting Prop bets, we can also talk about 'em. I haven't really looked.

Here's a good O/u props betTyler Hansbrough total points + rebounds at Florida State (2pm start) on Sunday vs. New England's total points scored. I think my lean is towards the Patriots total points here.

How 'bout dem Terps?

By the way Jeff - I think you nailed the preview of this game. Great write-up. I nearly agree with you on all counts of the matchups, etc. We'll see what happens.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Speaking of props, here's a very interesting story from one of our local guys (also on Fox Sports Radio, great morning guy if you've never listened):

Steve Czaben made mention of this one from Kevin O'Neill, who found a flaVVed Prop:

<h3 class="entrytitle" id="post-131"> Super Bowl Props Can Offer Big Edge </h3> Earlier this week I emailed my customers with a NFL prop that had my eyes popping out of my head. I bet “longest punt in the game over 42.5 yards” at a sports book that sounds very much like the nickname for someone named Christopher. (Jeff P edit - which is this? Christies?) This was a great bet, as the Giants punter had a kick of 43 yards or longer in every regular season game before falling victim to the elements in Green Bay. The Patriots punter, after a slow first four games of the season, had only one game where he punted more than once and didn’t have a punt of 43 yards or longer.

I placed the wager, sent the email, and thought, “well, that line will get knocked into shape pretty quickly.”

And it was. Ten minutes later over 42.5 (-115) was still the price, but it quickly went to over 42.5 (-145), then 45.5 minus money, then 46.5 minus money, and by the end of the day was pretty close to where it is now, which is over 49.5 (-210).

Some customers who were online at the time caught the price, or one of the early adjustments. But later in the day I received a number of emails that gently told me that I was looking at the wrong prop, that what I was looking for was the over/under on the first punt. The assumption that I didn’t know what I was doing indicates the greatest value in Super Bowl proposition wagering.

Obviously this price was a rare offering of tremendous value by the sports book. With hundreds of props to put up, a faulty memory as to what the price was last year or outright misjudgment occurs at every sports book. The management isn’t perfect, and the linemakers are far from infallible. And betting into a laughably weak opening line is where the greatest value in Super Bowl props exists.

Now that’s not to suggest that there won’t be value for someone who can isolate a matchup advantage, or who can figure out what a portion of the game plan will be for either team, or who gets first report of an injury that occurs in practice. But the best bets you ever make on Super Bowl props come from being the first to pounce on weaknesses.

Every year I hear from people holding tremendous bets as a result of sitting in a Vegas sports book or logging onto an online book as new proposition wagers are offered. Being quick and spotting the weaknesses in the hundreds of lines that are offered presents a tremendous edge to those who are ready.

Unreal to see a line move like that.... Great prop win there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Giants Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense - Once again, the LBs are at a disadvantage here. The combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw should be too much for Bruschi and Seau, with the pounding from BJ and the speed / quickness / elusiveness of Bradshaw. Harrison will come up to support, but the edge goes to the Giants.

People keep saying how much of a liability the Pats LB are against the run and how TEAM X will run all over the Patriots.Here is a per game breakdown of the rushing yards allowed this year by NE:NYJ - 60SD - 52BUF - 110CIN - 57CLE - 92DAL - 97MIA - 179WAS - 47IND - 119BUF - 78PHI - 55BAL - 166PIT - 181NYJ - 90MIA - 108NYG - 79JAX - 80SD - 104That works out to an average of 94 yards rushing allowed per game. We could debate WHY that is (most will say that NE being way ahead took most team's running attack out of play), but only on 3 occasions were the Pats really steamrolled in the rushing game.Not saying that the Giants couldn't have a big day running the ball, but I think the score of the game could again limit how much the Giants will run the ball. Even when they were up by double digits in the second half in the first game against NE they still did not rack up a lot of rushing yards.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Giants Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense - Once again, the LBs are at a disadvantage here. The combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw should be too much for Bruschi and Seau, with the pounding from BJ and the speed / quickness / elusiveness of Bradshaw. Harrison will come up to support, but the edge goes to the Giants.

People keep saying how much of a liability the Pats LB are against the run and how TEAM X will run all over the Patriots.Here is a per game breakdown of the rushing yards allowed this year by NE:

NYJ - 60

SD - 52

BUF - 110

CIN - 57

CLE - 92

DAL - 97

MIA - 179

WAS - 47

IND - 119

BUF - 78

PHI - 55

BAL - 166

PIT - 181

NYJ - 90

MIA - 108

NYG - 79

JAX - 80

SD - 104

That works out to an average of 94 yards rushing allowed per game. We could debate WHY that is (most will say that NE being way ahead took most team's running attack out of play), but only on 3 occasions were the Pats really steamrolled in the rushing game.

Not saying that the Giants couldn't have a big day running the ball, but I think the score of the game could again limit how much the Giants will run the ball. Even when they were up by double digits in the second half in the first game against NE they still did not rack up a lot of rushing yards.

Or maybe the temperature like I mentioned before?

Lastly, while many are expecting that the Giants will hang tough with the Patriots, keep this in mind. New England has not played a game in over 50 degrees since Week 8. Since then the temperatures have been between 44 and 23 degrees at kickoff, including a number of games with blustery (20+ MPH) winds. That big breeze is like a 12th defender against Moss on the deep ball.

So what happened in those first 8 games? New England scored 331 points (41+ PPG) while only giving up 127 (<16 PPG).

First 8 Weeks:

NYJ - 60

SD - 52

BUF - 110

CIN - 57

CLE - 92

DAL - 97

MIA - 179

WAS - 47

Average in blowouts - <87 yards per game, with just two over 100 yards.

Next 10 Games:

IND - 119

BUF - 78

PHI - 55

BAL - 166

PIT - 181

NYJ - 90

MIA - 108

NYG - 79

JAX - 80

SD - 104

Average in closer, cold contests - 106 yards per game, including 5 100+ yard games.

Achems razor - teams in blowouts don't run. Teams will try and run vs. the Pats until the scoreboard dictates that they have to throw to catch up.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Giants Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense - Once again, the LBs are at a disadvantage here. The combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw should be too much for Bruschi and Seau, with the pounding from BJ and the speed / quickness / elusiveness of Bradshaw. Harrison will come up to support, but the edge goes to the Giants.

People keep saying how much of a liability the Pats LB are against the run and how TEAM X will run all over the Patriots.Here is a per game breakdown of the rushing yards allowed this year by NE:NYJ - 60SD - 52BUF - 110CIN - 57CLE - 92DAL - 97MIA - 179WAS - 47IND - 119BUF - 78PHI - 55BAL - 166PIT - 181NYJ - 90MIA - 108NYG - 79JAX - 80SD - 104That works out to an average of 94 yards rushing allowed per game. We could debate WHY that is (most will say that NE being way ahead took most team's running attack out of play), but only on 3 occasions were the Pats really steamrolled in the rushing game.Not saying that the Giants couldn't have a big day running the ball, but I think the score of the game could again limit how much the Giants will run the ball. Even when they were up by double digits in the second half in the first game against NE they still did not rack up a lot of rushing yards.

New England's run defense is not as great as those numbers indicate, IMO. It is just a product of their offense outscoring their opponent forcing their opponent to pass and not run. I would be surprised if the Giants find it difficult to run against NE. The best hope for a strong Patriots run defense is to get a lead from the get go.

 

[David Yudkin]

Giants Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense - Once again, the LBs are at a disadvantage here. The combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw should be too much for Bruschi and Seau, with the pounding from BJ and the speed / quickness / elusiveness of Bradshaw. Harrison will come up to support, but the edge goes to the Giants.

People keep saying how much of a liability the Pats LB are against the run and how TEAM X will run all over the Patriots.Here is a per game breakdown of the rushing yards allowed this year by NE:NYJ - 60SD - 52BUF - 110CIN - 57CLE - 92DAL - 97MIA - 179WAS - 47IND - 119BUF - 78PHI - 55BAL - 166PIT - 181NYJ - 90MIA - 108NYG - 79JAX - 80SD - 104That works out to an average of 94 yards rushing allowed per game. We could debate WHY that is (most will say that NE being way ahead took most team's running attack out of play), but only on 3 occasions were the Pats really steamrolled in the rushing game.Not saying that the Giants couldn't have a big day running the ball, but I think the score of the game could again limit how much the Giants will run the ball. Even when they were up by double digits in the second half in the first game against NE they still did not rack up a lot of rushing yards.

New England's run defense is not as great as those numbers indicate, IMO. It is just a product of their offense outscoring their opponent forcing their opponent to pass and not run. I would be surprised if the Giants find it difficult to run against NE. The best hope for a strong Patriots run defense is to get a lead from the get go.

Look at the Pts last three games. They were BEHIND the Giants into the 4th quarter. They were mostly all square for most of the game against the Jags. And they never really pulled away from SD. Yet none of those teams really lit it up on the ground. I'll believe it when I see it as far as a team sticking to the run, controlling the clock, and putting up pick total rushing numbers.

 

[Norseman]

So - I favor the Patriots (-12) for 2 stars and the Over Total of 54 by 1 star, only because it might be a little higher on either end.

Enjoy the game.

 

[NorrisB]

Man Jeff you have been in a slump since about the middle of the season, perhaps your too biased to the favorites? I mean you very rarely pick the underdog

 

[Franknbeans]

Ooooooof

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Yep, the Giants won and like many I'm shocked.

Congrats to them, but that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

As for a slump - not really. I won WC weekend and lost a few since then. Upsets happen. I'd still pick the same way given the same info - the Giants played well above what I expected and the Pats gave them every chance to win it.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Yep, the Giants won and like many I'm shocked.Congrats to them, but that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.As for a slump - not really. I won WC weekend and lost a few since then. Upsets happen. I'd still pick the same way given the same info - the Giants played well above what I expected and the Pats gave them every chance to win it.

If you look at the last 1/4 of the season/playoffs......the Patriots weren't covering. I actually went with the under. I was at a party and everyone kept saying the over. The over. I actually like the over myself and I just thought to myself.........no way is everybody right. So, I just booked everybody's bet who thought it was gonna go over. I was surprised as everyone to see such a low scoring game.Usually when everyone thinks one way, the other thing happens.

 

[ravnzfan]

Yep, the Giants won and like many I'm shocked.

Congrats to them, but that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

As for a slump - not really. I won WC weekend and lost a few since then. Upsets happen. I'd still pick the same way given the same info - the Giants played well above what I expected and the Pats gave them every chance to win it.

this statement seems to indicate to me you felt NE outplayed NY, but 'the Pats gave them every chance to win it'...NE had several near misses this season (Philly , Balt & NYG) where tough, physical defenses took them to the wall...the Giants played them well in week 17, a game where they put some points on the board showing they could hang w/them in a higher scoring affair

Spagnola (student of Philly DC Johnson) was able to come up a game plan that probably lands him w/his 3rd NFC-East team, as his scheme and players' effort was certainly the differance in the game...the NYG defensive unit was the winning unit of the 6 in this game, doing more to disrupt Brady(5 sacks) than NE could to stop Eli, when it counted down the strech

...and can someone let Mr's Seau, Harrison and Belicheck know that there are 60 min in a football game?

The sideline carrying's on of the 2 palyers after the NE score w/2:30+ to go seemed to indicate to me they felt this was over---and HC not being on the field for the end of the game was simply inexcusable

After all, wasn't Moss ripped for exiting w/:10 to go in a game while still in Minny?

Same rules apply here, Billy...

 

[Mik789fl]

I called a Giants victory in another thread last week. I'm sticking to it. IMOP. The Giants will be able to run the ball enough to keep the Pats D honest. Coughlin hinted at part of their gameplan when he was asked if his team won the coin toss if they would defer,he said sarcastically,sure,they have the #1 offense let's give them another possesion. We'll take the ball. He wants to control the clock and keep Brady off the field. Look for a short passing game and Jacobs early with Bradshaw late.Of course the key on defense is pressure on Brady,Spags will change up the blitzes and coverages looking to get a rush up the middle,if The Giants D can do that they'll keep the game close. The Giants can keep the Pats running game in check I think. The longer the game stays close the better The Giants chances. I'll give The Jersey Boys a 27-24 win. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Yep, the Giants won and like many I'm shocked.

Congrats to them, but that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

As for a slump - not really. I won WC weekend and lost a few since then. Upsets happen. I'd still pick the same way given the same info - the Giants played well above what I expected and the Pats gave them every chance to win it.

this statement seems to indicate to me you felt NE outplayed NY, but 'the Pats gave them every chance to win it'...

No the only thing that I'm implying is the 4th down decisions. Not kicking a 49 yard Field Goal attempt was a bad idea.Also not going for it on 4th and 6 at the Giants 45 on the next possession - a better scenario for going for it than 4th and 13 on the Giants 31 - they punt.

The only other play I had a gripe on was the Toomer pushoff, but Karma forced a turnover shortly thereafter on that drive so it really didn't matter.

Regardless - the Giants were the better team, and holding the Pats to 14 points deserved to win. I'm most suprised by NE only getting 14, and also that a defensive player wasn't more considered for MVP. If Tuck had 2 sacks he probably gets it. It's just easier I guess to give it to Eli for the TD.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

That Patriots team hasn't shown up for a few months now. You were going against the trend calling them to show up yesterday.

 

[Modog814]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.Compare:NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAStoINDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SDThat said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28. Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I'm thinking you're going to not sleep well Sunday.

Slept like a baby. Thanks.

 

[ravnzfan]

Yep, the Giants won and like many I'm shocked.

Congrats to them, but that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

As for a slump - not really. I won WC weekend and lost a few since then. Upsets happen. I'd still pick the same way given the same info - the Giants played well above what I expected and the Pats gave them every chance to win it.

this statement seems to indicate to me you felt NE outplayed NY, but 'the Pats gave them every chance to win it'...

No the only thing that I'm implying is the 4th down decisions. Not kicking a 49 yard Field Goal attempt was a bad idea.Also not going for it on 4th and 6 at the Giants 45 on the next possession - a better scenario for going for it than 4th and 13 on the Giants 31 - they punt.

The only other play I had a gripe on was the Toomer pushoff, but Karma forced a turnover shortly thereafter on that drive so it really didn't matter.

Regardless - the Giants were the better team, and holding the Pats to 14 points deserved to win. I'm most suprised by NE only getting 14, and also that a defensive player wasn't more considered for MVP. If Tuck had 2 sacks he probably gets it. It's just easier I guess to give it to Eli for the TD.

The thing I didn't get is Belicheck didn't seem to get this was a slugfest---that everything he/they could do in the regular season would continue to workWorse than the call on 4th down you eleude to is the call the play before, which put them in a 49 yd FG situation on 4th to begin with---on 3rd and I believe 6 or 7, from the 25, I felt a run or better yet quick screen/dump to Welker/Faulk (18-153 combined, BTW) was the move...an imcomplete pass from there was a 42yd attempt, any gain puts it under 40, and how many times did those 2 convert those short completions for 1st downs? Too many!

This was very poor situational play calling, in a tight low scoring game where points were at a premium---you're corect, this series was 1 I'm guessing they'd like to rethink

On MVP...there were 5 sacks--any DL getting 2 would have had to be considered, but the overall effort of the DL was "MVP-ish" and why no individual lineman got it

Eli threw for a buck-50+/2TD's in the 4th qtr, which was the best individual effort of the evening...and the reason why QB's are something like 30-for-42 in SB MVP "voting"

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Over looks okay. Although I think you're way off on the score. Game will be much closer, weather isn't the only reason NE's scoring output slowed down, they played better defenses since week 8.Compare:NYJ, SD, BUF, CIN, CLE, DAL, MIA, WAStoINDY, BUF, PHI, BAL, PIT, NYJ, MIA, NYG, JAC, SDThat said, I think NYG are the play here. Take 12 points for the game, take 7 for the first half. I think this game will be close and I'm going to say NYG pull it out on the last drive. 31-28. Props:A couple looks interesting to me:Total Rushing Yards: Jacobs Vs. Maroney (-23.5) I think you take Jacobs here, the Giants shut down Maroney in their first meeting (19-46) and think that while NYG will get Bradshaw involved early and often, I think their game depends on establishing a good run. I see Jacobs getting right around ~75 yards, and I don't think Maroney will get to 100.Total Recieving Yards: Burress Vs. Moss (-22.5) I'm going with Burress here. Moss has only reached 100+ yards twice in his last 8 games and teams have been able to "slow" down NE by taking Moss out of the game. I think the Giants continue this strategy. Burress should be good for at least 60-70 yards and I think the Giants focus on stopping Moss.

I'm thinking you're going to not sleep well Sunday.

Slept like a baby. Thanks.

Yep, thought of this. Excellent job.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

That Patriots team hasn't shown up for a few months now. You were going against the trend calling them to show up yesterday.

Did you have the Giants winning or just covering?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

That Patriots team hasn't shown up for a few months now. You were going against the trend calling them to show up yesterday.

Did you have the Giants winning or just covering?

I don't handicap games anymore, so the answer is neither, but I made it pretty clear 2 weeks ago that I thought the Giants and Pats was an even matchup.

 

[Modog814]

Yep, thought of this. Excellent job.

Good work on the season. I really enjoyed reading your stuff. Thanks.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

IBTMGiants Cover - write it down

that wasn't the same Patriots team that blew away the league for 1/2 the year.

That Patriots team hasn't shown up for a few months now. You were going against the trend calling them to show up yesterday.

when was thelast time NE covered? they were pretty bad ATS at the end of the year