Superbowl Square probabilities (1 Viewer)

[Nemesis]

I went looking for this info and found that Doug wrote about this and posted the probabilities from NFL regular season games that were played between 1994 - 2004 .........but that was 4 years ago.

CAN WE GET THIS UPDATED NOW THAT WE HAVE 4 MORE YRS OF DATA?

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2005/01/

<H2 id=post-135>Squares for squares </H2>January 31, 2005 By: Doug Drinen Category

My understanding is that a Super Bowl Squares gambling event is intended to be a completely random lottery type situation where casual gamblers have as good a chance as sharks. Usually, the squares are assigned to people before numbers are assigned to squares, which means that every participant has an equal chance of getting the plum squares. But J.C. claims he has participated in squares pools where the numbers were pre-assigned and people were actually able to choose their squares on a first-come-first-serve basis.

This post is for you if (a) you watch Super Bowls with the unscrupulous and the naive, as J.C. apparently used to do, or (b) you auction off the squares. And if there's any group of people that fall into the latter category, it's got to consist of economists. What follows is a list of which squares are most likely to house the winning name at night's end. It was generated by looking at the final scores of all regular season NFL games since the 2-point conversion rule was instituted in 1994. Some details follow.

Square(s) PCT

---------------

70/07 3.80

74/47 3.71

03/30 3.21

41/14 2.23

04/40 2.04

71/17 1.93

77 1.93

73/37 1.93

00 1.71

63/36 1.63

44 1.59

60/06 1.54

01/10 1.48

34/43 1.45

18/81 1.35

33 1.19

31/13 1.00

80/08 0.95

16/61 0.95

76/67 0.89

11 0.85

78/87 0.83

64/46 0.82

97/79 0.80

57/75 0.76

90/09 0.74

84/48 0.72

93/39 0.72

50/05 0.72

58/85 0.69

69/96 0.69

49/94 0.67

24/42 0.65

83/38 0.61

02/20 0.56

91/19 0.56

66 0.56

32/23 0.54

35/53 0.52

45/54 0.50

86/68 0.48

72/27 0.46

88 0.41

26/62 0.35

21/12 0.33

52/25 0.33

92/29 0.32

89/98 0.30

95/59 0.24

15/51 0.24

65/56 0.22

82/28 0.22

99 0.19

55 0.19

22 0.04

What that means is that, for example, 7.6% of the time one team has a 7 and one team has a 0. We've got to cut that in half to meaningfully compare it with, e.g., the 07 square, so that's why the 3.80% appears next to 70/07. It's also why the numbers in the righthand column don't add up to 100.

So, to recap, here is the official Doug Drinen plan for making friends at your Super Bowl party.

1. As soon as the squares are drawn, find the people with the 70 and 07 squares. Offer them $3 for their square. If they accept, tell them that they just traded an expected payoff of $3.80 for a mere $3.00. Call them suckers.

2. Find the guy with 22 and let him know that since the merger in 1970 there has only been one single 22 game (it was the Dolphins and Bills in week 13 of this year). Call him a sucker too.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1326

 

[Q-Bert]

Uh, Doug already posted an updated article to his website.

 

[Nemesis]

Qtr by Qtr.......even better!

Thanks. (see it was even posted this past monday so maybe that's why i missed it)

 

[QuizGuy66]

Dumb question for the Turk - did you include the tie games such as the one my Who Deys played against the Iggles this year? Since Donavan McNabb informed me that the Super Bowl can't end in a tie I figured I'd ask you how you handle these outliers

Cheers

-QG

 

[The Jerk]

I have a hunch that the two-point conversion is making some of the less likely scores more prevalent than before. The NFCC is a prime example. Without the two-point conversion, it is likely a 31-26 game. Philly's missed 2-pt and Arizona's converted 2-pt showed some love to the 2-5 crowd. Could our mad scientist compare numbers from 1970-1993 with 1994-2008 just to see if there are some statistically significant differences?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I have a hunch that the two-point conversion is making some of the less likely scores more prevalent than before. The NFCC is a prime example. Without the two-point conversion, it is likely a 31-26 game. Philly's missed 2-pt and Arizona's converted 2-pt showed some love to the 2-5 crowd. Could our mad scientist compare numbers from 1970-1993 with 1994-2008 just to see if there are some statistically significant differences?

Was just about to mention the 2-pt conversion's impact.It's now rendered the lesser numbers a little more viable (5, 2, 8)

 

[Nemesis]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1326

I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects.

The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme.
The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:

Question 1: Wanted to get everyone's else take on how they do the payouts?Would not have thought 10/10/10/70 was the most common.

My guess is either an even system of 25/25/25/25

.......or weighted toward halftime and final score: 15/25/15/35

Question 2: Can the data be run without a payout system? (ie, w/o an "expected value" in the final column.......sort of asking what''s my "overall percentage" chance to match ANY quarter regardless of payout structure)

 

[Doug Drinen]

I have a hunch that the two-point conversion is making some of the less likely scores more prevalent than before. The NFCC is a prime example. Without the two-point conversion, it is likely a 31-26 game. Philly's missed 2-pt and Arizona's converted 2-pt showed some love to the 2-5 crowd. Could our mad scientist compare numbers from 1970-1993 with 1994-2008 just to see if there are some statistically significant differences?

Was just about to mention the 2-pt conversion's impact.

As is stated in both the old and the new post, the data is based only on the two-point conversion era.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Here are the percentages by quarter:

1st quarter:

+------+------+--------+| s1   | s2   | pct	|+------+------+--------+|	0 |	0 | 0.2013 ||	0 |	7 | 0.1183 ||	0 |	3 | 0.0904 ||	7 |	7 | 0.0677 ||	3 |	7 | 0.0484 ||	0 |	4 | 0.0348 ||	3 |	3 | 0.0314 ||	4 |	7 | 0.0126 ||	0 |	6 | 0.0122 ||	3 |	4 | 0.0093 ||	6 |	7 | 0.0055 ||	3 |	6 | 0.0032 ||	0 |	1 | 0.0030 ||	0 |	9 | 0.0022 ||	4 |	4 | 0.0021 ||	0 |	2 | 0.0015 ||	1 |	7 | 0.0014 ||	0 |	5 | 0.0010 ||	1 |	3 | 0.0008 ||	2 |	7 | 0.0006 ||	3 |	9 | 0.0005 ||	7 |	9 | 0.0005 ||	2 |	3 | 0.0004 ||	1 |	4 | 0.0004 ||	0 |	8 | 0.0003 ||	5 |	7 | 0.0003 ||	1 |	6 | 0.0003 ||	2 |	4 | 0.0003 ||	6 |	6 | 0.0003 ||	4 |	6 | 0.0003 ||	2 |	6 | 0.0001 ||	4 |	9 | 0.0001 |+------+------+--------+

2nd quarter

+------+------+--------+| s1   | s2   | pct	|+------+------+--------+|	0 |	0 | 0.0742 ||	7 |	7 | 0.0620 ||	0 |	7 | 0.0559 ||	0 |	3 | 0.0507 ||	3 |	7 | 0.0447 ||	0 |	4 | 0.0350 ||	3 |	3 | 0.0322 ||	4 |	7 | 0.0312 ||	3 |	4 | 0.0228 ||	0 |	6 | 0.0219 ||	4 |	4 | 0.0173 ||	6 |	7 | 0.0170 ||	3 |	6 | 0.0152 ||	1 |	7 | 0.0145 ||	0 |	1 | 0.0115 ||	4 |	6 | 0.0109 ||	1 |	3 | 0.0088 ||	0 |	9 | 0.0067 ||	1 |	4 | 0.0055 ||	6 |	6 | 0.0054 ||	7 |	9 | 0.0050 ||	0 |	8 | 0.0042 ||	7 |	8 | 0.0042 ||	3 |	9 | 0.0041 ||	1 |	6 | 0.0037 ||	4 |	9 | 0.0036 ||	0 |	2 | 0.0035 ||	1 |	1 | 0.0028 ||	2 |	7 | 0.0024 ||	5 |	7 | 0.0022 ||	4 |	8 | 0.0021 ||	0 |	5 | 0.0021 ||	3 |	5 | 0.0019 ||	3 |	8 | 0.0015 ||	2 |	4 | 0.0015 ||	6 |	9 | 0.0012 ||	6 |	8 | 0.0010 ||	2 |	3 | 0.0010 ||	1 |	9 | 0.0009 ||	2 |	6 | 0.0008 ||	4 |	5 | 0.0008 ||	1 |	2 | 0.0006 ||	5 |	8 | 0.0005 ||	9 |	9 | 0.0005 ||	5 |	6 | 0.0004 ||	2 |	5 | 0.0004 ||	2 |	9 | 0.0003 ||	2 |	2 | 0.0003 ||	5 |	9 | 0.0001 ||	1 |	8 | 0.0001 ||	8 |	9 | 0.0001 |+------+------+--------+

3rd quarter

+------+------+--------+| s1   | s2   | pct	|+------+------+--------+|	0 |	7 | 0.0474 ||	0 |	0 | 0.0430 ||	7 |	7 | 0.0427 ||	0 |	3 | 0.0348 ||	3 |	7 | 0.0333 ||	3 |	3 | 0.0330 ||	4 |	7 | 0.0322 ||	0 |	4 | 0.0263 ||	4 |	4 | 0.0232 ||	3 |	4 | 0.0225 ||	1 |	7 | 0.0194 ||	0 |	6 | 0.0170 ||	6 |	7 | 0.0163 ||	1 |	4 | 0.0152 ||	3 |	6 | 0.0149 ||	0 |	1 | 0.0131 ||	4 |	6 | 0.0118 ||	1 |	3 | 0.0103 ||	1 |	1 | 0.0080 ||	0 |	8 | 0.0076 ||	7 |	8 | 0.0073 ||	7 |	9 | 0.0064 ||	4 |	9 | 0.0059 ||	0 |	2 | 0.0057 ||	3 |	9 | 0.0054 ||	6 |	6 | 0.0054 ||	2 |	7 | 0.0051 ||	0 |	9 | 0.0051 ||	1 |	6 | 0.0049 ||	3 |	8 | 0.0048 ||	4 |	8 | 0.0045 ||	2 |	4 | 0.0041 ||	4 |	5 | 0.0035 ||	1 |	8 | 0.0035 ||	0 |	5 | 0.0035 ||	5 |	7 | 0.0033 ||	1 |	9 | 0.0031 ||	2 |	3 | 0.0028 ||	3 |	5 | 0.0028 ||	6 |	9 | 0.0027 ||	6 |	8 | 0.0024 ||	1 |	5 | 0.0022 ||	1 |	2 | 0.0019 ||	8 |	9 | 0.0019 ||	2 |	6 | 0.0013 ||	8 |	8 | 0.0013 ||	2 |	8 | 0.0010 ||	2 |	9 | 0.0009 ||	9 |	9 | 0.0008 ||	5 |	5 | 0.0008 ||	5 |	6 | 0.0008 ||	2 |	2 | 0.0005 ||	5 |	8 | 0.0005 ||	2 |	5 | 0.0005 ||	5 |	9 | 0.0004 |+------+------+--------+

4th quarter

+------+------+--------+| s1   | s2   | pct	|+------+------+--------+|	0 |	7 | 0.0378 ||	4 |	7 | 0.0335 ||	0 |	3 | 0.0330 ||	1 |	4 | 0.0237 ||	0 |	4 | 0.0216 ||	7 |	7 | 0.0214 ||	3 |	7 | 0.0206 ||	0 |	0 | 0.0193 ||	1 |	7 | 0.0180 ||	3 |	6 | 0.0162 ||	4 |	4 | 0.0154 ||	0 |	6 | 0.0151 ||	3 |	4 | 0.0149 ||	0 |	1 | 0.0145 ||	1 |	8 | 0.0127 ||	3 |	3 | 0.0121 ||	6 |	7 | 0.0106 ||	1 |	3 | 0.0103 ||	0 |	8 | 0.0097 ||	1 |	6 | 0.0089 ||	7 |	9 | 0.0082 ||	1 |	1 | 0.0082 ||	4 |	6 | 0.0082 ||	7 |	8 | 0.0081 ||	3 |	9 | 0.0075 ||	4 |	8 | 0.0075 ||	5 |	7 | 0.0075 ||	0 |	9 | 0.0071 ||	4 |	9 | 0.0068 ||	3 |	8 | 0.0066 ||	0 |	5 | 0.0066 ||	6 |	9 | 0.0063 ||	1 |	9 | 0.0063 ||	5 |	8 | 0.0063 ||	0 |	2 | 0.0061 ||	2 |	4 | 0.0054 ||	4 |	5 | 0.0053 ||	6 |	6 | 0.0051 ||	2 |	7 | 0.0051 ||	2 |	3 | 0.0049 ||	3 |	5 | 0.0046 ||	6 |	8 | 0.0042 ||	8 |	8 | 0.0041 ||	2 |	6 | 0.0036 ||	1 |	2 | 0.0035 ||	2 |	9 | 0.0035 ||	8 |	9 | 0.0031 ||	2 |	5 | 0.0030 ||	5 |	6 | 0.0027 ||	1 |	5 | 0.0024 ||	2 |	8 | 0.0019 ||	5 |	9 | 0.0019 ||	5 |	5 | 0.0018 ||	9 |	9 | 0.0015 ||	2 |	2 | 0.0003 |+------+------+--------+

And now I've got something special, just for the Shark Pool, coming up in the next post....

 

[Doug Drinen]

In the previous tables, the 0/7 and 7/0 squares were considered the same. In this post, I'll try to determine the difference between Steelers7/Cards0 and Cards7/Steelers0 based on the fact that the Steelers are the favorite.

This data is from all games from 1994--2008 where one team was favored by 6.5 to 7.5 points (the Steelers are 7-point favorites). There have been 554 such games.

The smaller sample size is bad. The more relevant sample is good. I'll let you decide which data set you like better.

1st quarter

+----------+-----------+--------+| steelers | cardinals | pct	|+----------+-----------+--------+|		0 |		 0 | 0.1968 ||		7 |		 0 | 0.1534 ||		3 |		 0 | 0.1065 ||		0 |		 7 | 0.0812 ||		7 |		 7 | 0.0758 ||		4 |		 0 | 0.0686 ||		0 |		 3 | 0.0650 ||		3 |		 7 | 0.0469 ||		7 |		 3 | 0.0433 ||		3 |		 3 | 0.0361 ||		6 |		 0 | 0.0162 ||		4 |		 7 | 0.0144 ||		7 |		 4 | 0.0126 ||		4 |		 3 | 0.0108 ||		0 |		 4 | 0.0108 ||		7 |		 6 | 0.0090 ||		1 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		6 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		4 |		 4 | 0.0054 ||		6 |		 3 | 0.0036 ||		7 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 0 | 0.0036 ||		3 |		 2 | 0.0036 ||		7 |		 2 | 0.0036 ||		4 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		1 |		 0 | 0.0018 ||		6 |		 4 | 0.0018 ||		2 |		 3 | 0.0018 ||		2 |		 0 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 0 | 0.0018 ||		0 |		 1 | 0.0018 |+----------+-----------+--------+

2nd quarter

+----------+-----------+--------+| steelers | cardinals | pct	|+----------+-----------+--------+|		0 |		 0 | 0.0848 ||		7 |		 0 | 0.0830 ||		7 |		 7 | 0.0614 ||		7 |		 3 | 0.0614 ||		0 |		 3 | 0.0596 ||		4 |		 7 | 0.0578 ||		4 |		 0 | 0.0469 ||		0 |		 7 | 0.0451 ||		1 |		 7 | 0.0361 ||		3 |		 0 | 0.0361 ||		7 |		 4 | 0.0289 ||		6 |		 0 | 0.0289 ||		3 |		 7 | 0.0289 ||		4 |		 3 | 0.0253 ||		3 |		 3 | 0.0235 ||		7 |		 6 | 0.0217 ||		6 |		 7 | 0.0181 ||		6 |		 3 | 0.0181 ||		0 |		 6 | 0.0181 ||		0 |		 4 | 0.0181 ||		4 |		 4 | 0.0181 ||		1 |		 4 | 0.0108 ||		1 |		 0 | 0.0090 ||		3 |		 6 | 0.0090 ||		3 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		1 |		 3 | 0.0090 ||		9 |		 4 | 0.0072 ||		6 |		 6 | 0.0072 ||		8 |		 0 | 0.0072 ||		4 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		3 |		 1 | 0.0054 ||		8 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 1 | 0.0054 ||		7 |		 2 | 0.0054 ||		8 |		 3 | 0.0054 ||		9 |		 0 | 0.0054 ||		3 |		 9 | 0.0054 ||		5 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		2 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		3 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 7 | 0.0036 ||		7 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		6 |		 4 | 0.0036 ||		0 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 0 | 0.0036 ||		8 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		7 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 4 | 0.0036 ||		4 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		1 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		1 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		0 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		4 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 3 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 4 | 0.0018 ||		0 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 1 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		1 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		2 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 2 | 0.0018 |+----------+-----------+--------+

3rd quarter

+----------+-----------+--------+| steelers | cardinals | pct	|+----------+-----------+--------+|		7 |		 0 | 0.0487 ||		7 |		 7 | 0.0487 ||		1 |		 7 | 0.0451 ||		7 |		 3 | 0.0433 ||		4 |		 0 | 0.0415 ||		0 |		 3 | 0.0379 ||		0 |		 0 | 0.0379 ||		4 |		 7 | 0.0361 ||		3 |		 0 | 0.0361 ||		3 |		 7 | 0.0325 ||		3 |		 3 | 0.0307 ||		0 |		 7 | 0.0289 ||		4 |		 3 | 0.0289 ||		4 |		 4 | 0.0271 ||		1 |		 4 | 0.0271 ||		7 |		 6 | 0.0253 ||		6 |		 0 | 0.0217 ||		7 |		 4 | 0.0181 ||		0 |		 4 | 0.0181 ||		0 |		 6 | 0.0181 ||		3 |		 4 | 0.0162 ||		7 |		 9 | 0.0162 ||		8 |		 7 | 0.0162 ||		4 |		 1 | 0.0162 ||		1 |		 3 | 0.0144 ||		6 |		 7 | 0.0144 ||		3 |		 6 | 0.0144 ||		6 |		 3 | 0.0126 ||		8 |		 0 | 0.0126 ||		9 |		 3 | 0.0108 ||		1 |		 0 | 0.0108 ||		6 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		4 |		 6 | 0.0090 ||		5 |		 0 | 0.0090 ||		8 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		5 |		 4 | 0.0072 ||		4 |		 9 | 0.0072 ||		7 |		 1 | 0.0072 ||		8 |		 3 | 0.0072 ||		8 |		 9 | 0.0054 ||		8 |		 1 | 0.0054 ||		1 |		 1 | 0.0054 ||		7 |		 2 | 0.0054 ||		2 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		6 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 9 | 0.0054 ||		1 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 4 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		0 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		3 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		6 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 6 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 4 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 0 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		8 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		6 |		 9 | 0.0036 ||		3 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		5 |		 3 | 0.0036 ||		1 |		 6 | 0.0036 ||		3 |		 2 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		5 |		 7 | 0.0018 ||		0 |		 8 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 7 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 0 | 0.0018 ||		8 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		2 |		 3 | 0.0018 ||		7 |		 8 | 0.0018 ||		7 |		 5 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 1 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		3 |		 1 | 0.0018 ||		1 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		3 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		6 |		 1 | 0.0018 |+----------+-----------+--------+

4th quarter/OT

+----------+-----------+--------+| steelers | cardinals | pct	|+----------+-----------+--------+|		7 |		 0 | 0.0505 ||		4 |		 7 | 0.0379 ||		4 |		 1 | 0.0361 ||		7 |		 3 | 0.0361 ||		1 |		 0 | 0.0307 ||		0 |		 3 | 0.0289 ||		0 |		 7 | 0.0289 ||		7 |		 4 | 0.0271 ||		7 |		 7 | 0.0235 ||		8 |		 1 | 0.0217 ||		8 |		 7 | 0.0199 ||		1 |		 3 | 0.0199 ||		3 |		 6 | 0.0199 ||		6 |		 3 | 0.0199 ||		3 |		 0 | 0.0199 ||		1 |		 4 | 0.0199 ||		1 |		 7 | 0.0199 ||		4 |		 4 | 0.0181 ||		4 |		 0 | 0.0181 ||		7 |		 1 | 0.0181 ||		9 |		 7 | 0.0162 ||		1 |		 6 | 0.0162 ||		4 |		 3 | 0.0162 ||		3 |		 7 | 0.0144 ||		7 |		 6 | 0.0126 ||		8 |		 4 | 0.0126 ||		3 |		 3 | 0.0126 ||		6 |		 0 | 0.0126 ||		0 |		 6 | 0.0126 ||		2 |		 0 | 0.0126 ||		7 |		 5 | 0.0126 ||		1 |		 8 | 0.0126 ||		5 |		 0 | 0.0108 ||		1 |		 9 | 0.0108 ||		5 |		 7 | 0.0108 ||		5 |		 2 | 0.0090 ||		0 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		9 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		9 |		 3 | 0.0090 ||		8 |		 3 | 0.0090 ||		3 |		 4 | 0.0090 ||		8 |		 5 | 0.0090 ||		2 |		 9 | 0.0090 ||		5 |		 3 | 0.0072 ||		2 |		 1 | 0.0072 ||		3 |		 9 | 0.0072 ||		1 |		 1 | 0.0072 ||		6 |		 4 | 0.0072 ||		6 |		 8 | 0.0072 ||		2 |		 3 | 0.0072 ||		0 |		 1 | 0.0072 ||		3 |		 2 | 0.0072 ||		0 |		 5 | 0.0054 ||		7 |		 8 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 2 | 0.0054 ||		4 |		 8 | 0.0054 ||		6 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		6 |		 7 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 9 | 0.0054 ||		7 |		 9 | 0.0054 ||		0 |		 0 | 0.0054 ||		8 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		7 |		 2 | 0.0054 ||		9 |		 6 | 0.0054 ||		4 |		 2 | 0.0054 ||		3 |		 8 | 0.0054 ||		2 |		 7 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		1 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 1 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 0 | 0.0036 ||		8 |		 9 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 5 | 0.0036 ||		5 |		 4 | 0.0036 ||		9 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		8 |		 8 | 0.0036 ||		1 |		 2 | 0.0036 ||		4 |		 9 | 0.0036 ||		2 |		 4 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 5 | 0.0018 ||		8 |		 0 | 0.0018 ||		6 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 1 | 0.0018 ||		6 |		 1 | 0.0018 ||		2 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		6 |		 5 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 6 | 0.0018 ||		8 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 2 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 8 | 0.0018 ||		9 |		 9 | 0.0018 ||		5 |		 5 | 0.0018 ||		0 |		 8 | 0.0018 ||		3 |		 5 | 0.0018 ||		3 |		 1 | 0.0018 |+----------+-----------+--------+

 

[tombonneau]

FYI, Boston.com posted an interactive table with odds. It is based on the scores of the last 42 Super Bowls, which IMO doesn't make it statistically all that relevant, but a neat feature nonetheless:

http://www.boston.com/interactive/interact...7_supersquares/

 

[shredhead]

I have a hunch that the two-point conversion is making some of the less likely scores more prevalent than before. The NFCC is a prime example. Without the two-point conversion, it is likely a 31-26 game. Philly's missed 2-pt and Arizona's converted 2-pt showed some love to the 2-5 crowd. Could our mad scientist compare numbers from 1970-1993 with 1994-2008 just to see if there are some statistically significant differences?

And I thought my 7-3 (wrong way for 1st qtr) was looking good. 2-5 was money.OP: Why worry about the odds? Most square pools don't draw #'s until after everyone picks their square(s). It's a total crapshoot anyway. Just have fun or don't play squares if you're that concerned about the odds.