Taking AJ Green #1 overall (1 Viewer)

[cobalt_27]

I know there's an AJ Green thread already out there, but this is a more focused topic.

Since 2000, 21 WRs selected in the top-15, and only 7 of them have averaged over 100 FPs/season, and only 3 of them have averaged over 150 FP/season:

2009..34..Darrius Heyward-Bey

2009..93..Michael Crabtree

2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2007..61..Ted Ginn Jr.

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2005..29..Troy Williamson

2005..38..Mike Williams

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2004..69..Reggie Williams

2004..124..Lee Evans

2004..52..Michael Clayton

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2002..81..Donte' Stallworth

2001..54..David Terrell

2001..67..Koren Robinson

2001..79..Rod Gardner

2000..76..Peter Warrick

2000..124..Plaxico Burress

2000..70..Travis Taylor

I have the #1 pick, overall in our rookie dynasty draft. Someone please tell me a good story about why Green will wind up closer to Fitz/Calvin/AJ instead of the other 18 who ultimately turned out far less than advertised.

TIA

 

[adrenaline]

I'd say Green is considered a better prospect than at least 75% of the guys that didn't make it. Then you have a couple guys in Bey & Ginn that everyone except the teams that drafted them thought they reached. I don't think anyone would think it was a reach if Green went 1st overall. If you went back 1 more year to 1999 you would have Holt & maybe Boston I'm not going to figure it out.

 

[moderated]

Big difference between the top 15 and top 5.

Fitz/aj/Calvin all went in top 5. Aj green will also go in the top 5.

After the top 8-10 picks the uber elite talents are gone, so a wr who goes 10-15 is a lot different then a top 5 one.

Do the same list but with top 5 drafted wrs.

 

[adrenaline]

Just to add there's no comparable RB prospect in this draft to take over him.

 

[cobalt_27]

I'd say Green is considered a better prospect than at least 75% of the guys that didn't make it. Then you have a couple guys in Bey & Ginn that everyone except the teams that drafted them thought they reached. I don't think anyone would think it was a reach if Green went 1st overall. If you went back 1 more year to 1999 you would have Holt & maybe Boston I'm not going to figure it out.

Good point. If you look at the top-5 selections, Calvin, Braylon, Fitz, Andre all have been successful, with only Charles Rogers and Peter Warrick tanking. I just watch Green, and he oozes talent. Should I hope for him to go to CIN or CLE? Gotta' root for CLE, right? Shurmer/Holmgren...and I have to admit, I think McCoy turns into a solid pro.

 

[NorrisB]

I know there's an AJ Green thread already out there, but this is a more focused topic.

Since 2000, 21 WRs selected in the top-15, and only 7 of them have averaged over 100 FPs/season, and only 3 of them have averaged over 150 FP/season:

2009..34..Darrius Heyward-Bey

2009..93..Michael Crabtree

2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2007..61..Ted Ginn Jr.

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2005..29..Troy Williamson

2005..38..Mike Williams

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2004..69..Reggie Williams

2004..124..Lee Evans

2004..52..Michael Clayton

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2002..81..Donte' Stallworth

2001..54..David Terrell

2001..67..Koren Robinson

2001..79..Rod Gardner

2000..76..Peter Warrick

2000..124..Plaxico Burress

2000..70..Travis Taylor

I have the #1 pick, overall in our rookie dynasty draft. Someone please tell me a good story about why Green will wind up closer to Fitz/Calvin/AJ instead of the other 18 who ultimately turned out far less than advertised.

TIA

I think only these guys were graded as high as AJ Green coming out of college

 

[cobalt_27]

Just to add there's no comparable RB prospect in this draft to take over him.

I really want to like Mark Ingram more than I do. Same for Mikel LeShoure.But, I don't. So, the answer here, I guess, is...consider AJ a "top-5" guy and don't get confused by noise by including the "top-15" crew. When looking at the top-5 WRs selected, it does appear more representative of quality production.

 

[GridironMenace]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

 

[adrenaline]

I'd say Green is considered a better prospect than at least 75% of the guys that didn't make it. Then you have a couple guys in Bey & Ginn that everyone except the teams that drafted them thought they reached. I don't think anyone would think it was a reach if Green went 1st overall. If you went back 1 more year to 1999 you would have Holt & maybe Boston I'm not going to figure it out.

Good point. If you look at the top-5 selections, Calvin, Braylon, Fitz, Andre all have been successful, with only Charles Rogers and Peter Warrick tanking. I just watch Green, and he oozes talent. Should I hope for him to go to CIN or CLE? Gotta' root for CLE, right? Shurmer/Holmgren...and I have to admit, I think McCoy turns into a solid pro.

Probably more balls to go around in Bengals land.

 

[cobalt_27]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

Why not? If it's QB you're worried about, not sure they're working with anything worse than Carr, McCown, Kitna (for AJ, Fitz, Calvin).Offensive minded GM and head coach. QB with a little bit of grit in him. I think Cincy would be much worse.

 

[cobalt_27]

I'd say Green is considered a better prospect than at least 75% of the guys that didn't make it. Then you have a couple guys in Bey & Ginn that everyone except the teams that drafted them thought they reached. I don't think anyone would think it was a reach if Green went 1st overall. If you went back 1 more year to 1999 you would have Holt & maybe Boston I'm not going to figure it out.

Good point. If you look at the top-5 selections, Calvin, Braylon, Fitz, Andre all have been successful, with only Charles Rogers and Peter Warrick tanking. I just watch Green, and he oozes talent. Should I hope for him to go to CIN or CLE? Gotta' root for CLE, right? Shurmer/Holmgren...and I have to admit, I think McCoy turns into a solid pro.

Probably more balls to go around in Bengals land.

From whom?

 

[az_prof]

I know there's an AJ Green thread already out there, but this is a more focused topic.

Since 2000, 21 WRs selected in the top-15, and only 7 of them have averaged over 100 FPs/season, and only 3 of them have averaged over 150 FP/season:

2009..34..Darrius Heyward-Bey

2009..93..Michael Crabtree

2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2007..61..Ted Ginn Jr.

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2005..29..Troy Williamson

2005..38..Mike Williams

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2004..69..Reggie Williams

2004..124..Lee Evans

2004..52..Michael Clayton

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2002..81..Donte' Stallworth

2001..54..David Terrell

2001..67..Koren Robinson

2001..79..Rod Gardner

2000..76..Peter Warrick

2000..124..Plaxico Burress

2000..70..Travis Taylor

I have the #1 pick, overall in our rookie dynasty draft. Someone please tell me a good story about why Green will wind up closer to Fitz/Calvin/AJ instead of the other 18 who ultimately turned out far less than advertised.

TIA

I think only these guys were graded as high as AJ Green coming out of college

This assumes Green will be a top 5 pick. If he isn't, then I would be much more cautious. Take a look at those guys that are taken 5-15 and you see alot more fail than win. Even the top 5 guys are not a sure thing. I think you need to factor in your league scoring system and your roster requirements. Some leagues favor WRs more than others and in one of those with PPR where you can start 3-4 WRs and only 2 RBs, then his value is much higher I would say, as are all WRs. In a standard scoring league with 2RBs 2WRs or 2/3, I would be a bit more careful because WRs have a higher fail rate.

 

[adrenaline]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

The top rookies are usually going to bad teams IMO you have to go with the best talent & hope the situation improves.

 

[NorrisB]

I know there's an AJ Green thread already out there, but this is a more focused topic.

Since 2000, 21 WRs selected in the top-15, and only 7 of them have averaged over 100 FPs/season, and only 3 of them have averaged over 150 FP/season:

2009..34..Darrius Heyward-Bey

2009..93..Michael Crabtree

2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2007..61..Ted Ginn Jr.

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2005..29..Troy Williamson

2005..38..Mike Williams

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2004..69..Reggie Williams

2004..124..Lee Evans

2004..52..Michael Clayton

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2002..81..Donte' Stallworth

2001..54..David Terrell

2001..67..Koren Robinson

2001..79..Rod Gardner

2000..76..Peter Warrick

2000..124..Plaxico Burress

2000..70..Travis Taylor

I have the #1 pick, overall in our rookie dynasty draft. Someone please tell me a good story about why Green will wind up closer to Fitz/Calvin/AJ instead of the other 18 who ultimately turned out far less than advertised.

TIA

I think only these guys were graded as high as AJ Green coming out of college

This assumes Green will be a top 5 pick. If he isn't, then I would be much more cautious. Take a look at those guys that are taken 5-15 and you see alot more fail than win. Even the top 5 guys are not a sure thing. I think you need to factor in your league scoring system and your roster requirements. Some leagues favor WRs more than others and in one of those with PPR where you can start 3-4 WRs and only 2 RBs, then his value is much higher I would say, as are all WRs. In a standard scoring league with 2RBs 2WRs or 2/3, I would be a bit more careful because WRs have a higher fail rate.

2009..93..Michael Crabtree2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2000..76..Peter Warrick

Not all these guys went in the top 5 IMO these were the only guys rated as highly as Mr. Green

 

[adrenaline]

I'd say Green is considered a better prospect than at least 75% of the guys that didn't make it. Then you have a couple guys in Bey & Ginn that everyone except the teams that drafted them thought they reached. I don't think anyone would think it was a reach if Green went 1st overall. If you went back 1 more year to 1999 you would have Holt & maybe Boston I'm not going to figure it out.

Good point. If you look at the top-5 selections, Calvin, Braylon, Fitz, Andre all have been successful, with only Charles Rogers and Peter Warrick tanking. I just watch Green, and he oozes talent. Should I hope for him to go to CIN or CLE? Gotta' root for CLE, right? Shurmer/Holmgren...and I have to admit, I think McCoy turns into a solid pro.

Probably more balls to go around in Bengals land.

From whom?

Yes I considered this could be better than McCoy, could be worse. Plenty of WRs put up good numbers with bad QBs & I think the Bengals will throw it more no matter which. Miami had 2 WRs finish in the top 15 in receptions in 2010. Buffalo & Washington had 1 each also.

 

[Dragon1952]

I know there's an AJ Green thread already out there, but this is a more focused topic.

Since 2000, 21 WRs selected in the top-15, and only 7 of them have averaged over 100 FPs/season, and only 3 of them have averaged over 150 FP/season:

2009..34..Darrius Heyward-Bey

2009..93..Michael Crabtree

2007..160..Calvin Johnson

2007..61..Ted Ginn Jr.

2005..125..Braylon Edwards

2005..29..Troy Williamson

2005..38..Mike Williams

2004..174..Larry Fitzgerald

2004..111..Roy Williams

2004..69..Reggie Williams

2004..124..Lee Evans

2004..52..Michael Clayton

2003..35..Charles Rogers

2003..153..Andre Johnson

2002..81..Donte' Stallworth

2001..54..David Terrell

2001..67..Koren Robinson

2001..79..Rod Gardner

2000..76..Peter Warrick

2000..124..Plaxico Burress

2000..70..Travis Taylor

Yeah, but those are 3 really good ones!

 

[Donsmith753]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

With all due respect I don't believe you. If you were sitting with the 1.05 in a rookie draft and green was there you'd be on him like white on rice.

 

[Cassius]

This assumes Green will be a top 5 pick. If he isn't, then I would be much more cautious.

I don't think this makes much sense.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

With all due respect I don't believe you. If you were sitting with the 1.05 in a rookie draft and green was there you'd be on him like white on rice.

Last year people said the same thing about Cleveland when it came to them picking a RB. They took Monterio Hardesty in the second round and people scoffed at him or any Cleveland RB doing anything because they all chimed in like lemmings that 'nobody in Cleveland will do anything! Jake Delhomme, no WRs, blah blah blah.'Hardesty got injured and Mangini traded Harrison away and suddenly Peyton Hillis became a household fantasy name. The naysayser completely missed the boat on Hillis, (insert Nelson Mutz haa haa here). Green is a talent and the cream will rise to the top no matter where he goes but if he lands in Cleveland then bump Colt McCoy's value.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

If Green goes to Cleveland, I wouldn't touch him at 1.01 or anywhere in the top 5.

Why not? If it's QB you're worried about, not sure they're working with anything worse than Carr, McCown, Kitna (for AJ, Fitz, Calvin).Offensive minded GM and head coach. QB with a little bit of grit in him. I think Cincy would be much worse.

Exactly! Cream rises to the top. Eventally CLE and CIN will get their franchise QB's. Green will likely be around for 10-12 years, which is plenty of time for these teams to improve offensively in the passing game.Another reason to take Green over your top rated RB is that WR's can be elite for 10+ years, whereas RB's careers are more than likley 4-5 years. When there are elite WR's prospects, I'd take them nearly every time over top RB prospects.....unless your dynasty team is set at WR. RB's are easier to find and fill in than elite WR's.

 

[rzrback77]

So, everyone ranks AJ Green well above Julio Jones and Ingram?

 

[cobalt_27]

So, everyone ranks AJ Green well above Julio Jones and Ingram?

I would.Unless Jones falls to STL it would be hard to argue for him over Green. I think Ingram will be a fine RB, but I don't see much potential for dominance. Green looks the part of an elite WR for years.