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Talent or Need? (1 Viewer)

Warhogs

Footballguy
I have been reading a lot of mocks and a big argument is always on team needs. How do you weigh talent vs. need in a mock? I assume some team histories point in one direction or another? I can think of a few past "surprise picks" such as BMW to the Lions, Bills trading up for McGahee when they had Henry, Larry Johnson behind Priest Holmes. Does anybody have a good pulse on how each teams usually goes?

 
I have been reading a lot of mocks and a big argument is always on team needs. How do you weigh talent vs. need in a mock? I assume some team histories point in one direction or another? I can think of a few past "surprise picks" such as BMW to the Lions, Bills trading up for McGahee when they had Henry, Larry Johnson behind Priest Holmes. Does anybody have a good pulse on how each teams usually goes?
Patriots = Best available Tight End
 
A few off the top of my head...

The Ravens GM (Newsome) always draft the best player on the board regardless of need. The Jaguars GM (Harris) came from Baltimore's front office and has the same philosophy as well. The Packers GM (Thompson) also goes with the BPA strategy.

 
To the bottom of the elite player talent pool (whatever it may be) and with the exception of QBs (and sometimes but not often other positions), I believe every team in the NFL honestly tries to take the best available football player. An article written in the mid 70s about a series of interviews with Brandt and Schramm explained the mathematics of drafting, and the necessity of building your franchise with the best football players you can draft regardless of position (in most cases).

I do believe the last decade of drafts has followed this thinking for the most part. It gets complicated several dozen ways, but primarily is the fact that 32 teams see the elite talent 32 different ways. A year ago, the Niners Personnel Director (Scott McCloughan??) claimed they tagged 18 elite players in the draft, BUT they got one with the 22nd pick, AND "another" was still available.

Balancing needs and talent is generally far more important after the elite prospects are gone and for as long as the "obvious NFL talent" is available. Many things factor into this too, and I'm beginning to believe "depth per position" supply and demand thinking is very important.

Once the "obvious NFL talent" is gone, which never happened last year, that's when measureables become very important if you want to be drafted. Parcells has a quote on this. Paraphrasing, "With those sixth and seventh round guys, you need to know that he has the physical strength and speed to hold up. I can try to coach him, but I can't do much about his genetics."

Then there's the team preferences and tendencies too, but they aren't static and can change. No one saw the Pats going Maroney Jackson. It seemed so out of character, but made so much sense.

 
A few off the top of my head...The Ravens GM (Newsome) always draft the best player on the board regardless of need. The Jaguars GM (Harris) came from Baltimore's front office and has the same philosophy as well. The Packers GM (Thompson) also goes with the BPA strategy.
Bengals, Giants and Steelers have also claimed to be best player drafting teams. Dallas is close, but more of a best athlete kind of approach, meaning Parcels rules out OLs and isn't to fond of little guys like RBs or WRs with a very early pick.
 
A few off the top of my head...The Ravens GM (Newsome) always draft the best player on the board regardless of need. The Jaguars GM (Harris) came from Baltimore's front office and has the same philosophy as well. The Packers GM (Thompson) also goes with the BPA strategy.
Bengals, Giants and Steelers have also claimed to be best player drafting teams. Dallas is close, but more of a best athlete kind of approach, meaning Parcels rules out OLs and isn't to fond of little guys like RBs or WRs with a very early pick.
The Steelers may claim this but their draft selections in the past 5 years or so would suggest otherwise. (I'm not saying the picks have been poor, just that they have tended to select for need much more often than not of late. If a team has a need to fill and the top player on their board fills that need - perfect. It just doesn't work that way as often as some teams would lead us to believe.)
 
If a team has a need to fill and the top player on their board fills that need - perfect. It just doesn't work that way as often as some teams would lead us to believe.)
This made me laugh because it is so true. "Well, we need to strengthen the defensive line and he was the top man on our board." Yeah right. Every team says this about practically half their picks. The draft is just a miracle of perfection where the top man on boards meets glaring needs all the time. Also team tendencies change based on team strength. That Steeler team was on the cusp of a Super Bowl for the past five years, and very good teams will probably be more interested in filling needs. They also have fewer. So, it's like fitting that last piece to the puzzle. On the other hand a really bad team has to focus on getting the best talent available regardless of fit.

 
If a team has a need to fill and the top player on their board fills that need - perfect. It just doesn't work that way as often as some teams would lead us to believe.)
This made me laugh because it is so true. "Well, we need to strengthen the defensive line and he was the top man on our board." Yeah right. Every team says this about practically half their picks. The draft is just a miracle of perfection where the top man on boards meets glaring needs all the time. Also team tendencies change based on team strength. That Steeler team was on the cusp of a Super Bowl for the past five years, and very good teams will probably be more interested in filling needs. They also have fewer. So, it's like fitting that last piece to the puzzle. On the other hand a really bad team has to focus on getting the best talent available regardless of fit.
The draft is not the either need or BPA stuff that teams try to get by the public. Teams do some version of a mix. When a team comes out and says stuff about he was the highest person on our draft board, this is not a concensus all-inclusive draft board we fans work from, but the 100 (or whatever number of)players who fit our specific system, incorporates personal biases, etc . To a large extent, while not often admitted that draft board already incorporates need. Another consideration is that teams do not automatically have the same idea of what they need that fans/draftsperts do. They maybe high on some special team LB that has never lined up in a regular defensive set, while we are thinking that LB should be a priority. the reverse is all so true, we may look at some position as at least solid, but the team does not have the same thought. In terms, of real short term needs, it seems like many teams try to resolve those in FA instead of depending on a rookie to come in and resolve the problem. 2006 was unusual in the number of rookies who came are were able to make immediate impacts.

What team don't do that fans (and many mock drafters) do is the grocry list. Example

Highest needs in order

OLT 1st round

WR 2nd round

FS 3rd round

OLB 4th round

QB 5th round

OG 6th round

DT 7th round

The draft does not work that cleanly.

 
My reason for posing this topic was I have been reading a lot of the mock drafts and there are always arguments brought up about I don't think this team takes player A because they need more help at these positions...

I guess in my mind I would think most teams (especially in the top half of round 1) would tend to draft the best player if a guy stands out to them and would fill more holes later in the draft. I just don't agree with all the team need arguments when looking at round 1 mocks.

 
My reason for posing this topic was I have been reading a lot of the mock drafts and there are always arguments brought up about I don't think this team takes player A because they need more help at these positions...I guess in my mind I would think most teams (especially in the top half of round 1) would tend to draft the best player if a guy stands out to them and would fill more holes later in the draft. I just don't agree with all the team need arguments when looking at round 1 mocks.
You have a good notion. The key is that an individual is likely to be the CLEARLY Best player available (both by consensus and specific board) earlier in the draft. I beleive that this is why you so often see RBs go to some team that already has a seemingly established player and why the need based mock draft is usually rendered useless by about pick 5.
 
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Good stuff. As usual I'm in agreement with coolnerd's comments, and Warhogs is on the right track for sure. The mock draftnicking hobby is driven by team needs discussion. Which means it is driving down the wrong road, but in the right direction. I enjoy it, while some think it's a waste of time until April. It's just a matter of taste. I like trying to put the puzzle together early, and I always fail, but learn a lot about players in the process.

Above I mentioned the Schramm and Brandt and math. They were draft legends by the end of the 70s. They used computers. Imagine that. To try to breifly make their point about best player. Very simplified. Say the team in question has 50 players who grade at an average score of 70 making the team's score a 3500. The starting RT is a 75 and needs improvement. It's a weakness and a need. He ranks 21st at the position in the league. The starting NT is an 85, he ranks 9th at the position in the league. He is one of the team's strengths. It's early in the draft and time to pick. The best available RT grades at 80 and projects to an 82. A stud NT is available with a franchise grade of 95 and the sky's the limit. Who do you draft? It's very easy to say the NT, right? When people read mocks they can do that for every team but their favorite. They f'n hate their RT and want a stud from the draft-- a stud that doesn't exist. What the old Cowboy braintrust went on to explain was the 95+ player increased the team's total score by 10+ points over the already solid NT. The RT was only 7 better than the current starter. That's +3, but more importantly is the gap between those two. The rook nose is a 15 point upgrade to the rook RT. Overtime positional needs are addressed through multiple draft picks. It looked foolish for the Giants to burn a first on a DE with three good ones, two very young, and so many other needs. It turned out to be a great pick and Kiwi played way more than anyone could have predicted.

But we still have a turnstile at RT! We're doomed. Yeah, it's a problem, but those two NTs are going to dominate and that's a bigger improvement. Sometimes strengthening a strength makes a team better than strengthening a weakness.

So, I guess the point is, when reading mocks, don't cry out, "We won't take a WR!! No way. We've done that and it doesn't work."

Well, Atlanta fans, Jenkins and Roddy had grades in the mid 80s. There's 3 or 5 in this draft at the franchise 95+ number. You need a WR very badly, and I don't care how you drafted in the past. Same for you Lions fans. And that was something else explained way back then. Roster dynamics change every season and who or what you drafted the previous year has no bearing on who or what you draft the next year. You looke at the team and talent and try to make the team as improved as possible.

 
To the bottom of the elite player talent pool (whatever it may be) and with the exception of QBs (and sometimes but not often other positions), I believe every team in the NFL honestly tries to take the best available football player. An article written in the mid 70s about a series of interviews with Brandt and Schramm explained the mathematics of drafting, and the necessity of building your franchise with the best football players you can draft regardless of position (in most cases).

I do believe the last decade of drafts has followed this thinking for the most part. It gets complicated several dozen ways, but primarily is the fact that 32 teams see the elite talent 32 different ways. A year ago, the Niners Personnel Director (Scott McCloughan??) claimed they tagged 18 elite players in the draft, BUT they got one with the 22nd pick, AND "another" was still available.

Balancing needs and talent is generally far more important after the elite prospects are gone and for as long as the "obvious NFL talent" is available. Many things factor into this too, and I'm beginning to believe "depth per position" supply and demand thinking is very important.

Once the "obvious NFL talent" is gone, which never happened last year, that's when measureables become very important if you want to be drafted. Parcells has a quote on this. Paraphrasing, "With those sixth and seventh round guys, you need to know that he has the physical strength and speed to hold up. I can try to coach him, but I can't do much about his genetics."

Then there's the team preferences and tendencies too, but they aren't static and can change. No one saw the Pats going Maroney Jackson. It seemed so out of character, but made so much sense.
Good call. I cannot remember the phrasing or exact wording but his (Brandt's) feeling in that article was that if a team constantly takes guys they need, meaning players meeting a positional need, versus guys with talent, which would be difference makers and impact players, that team kicks their a** kicked on Sundays more often than not. He then went on to explain that the top few picks are for impact players especially Round 1 and to a lesser degree Rounds 2-3. He summarized by saying you take guys that win you games early on in the draft and guys that help you win later in the draft.

I think most teams follow that type of formula suggested by Brandt, while placing a different level of importance and or emphasis upon things like...

Signability...How easy will it be to sign the draftee and who is his agent?

Short and long-term economics of signing the draftee...Can he be easily resigned after the first contract duration?

Does the draftee fit into the current offensive or defensive system or not?

What is the draftee's character?

What are his measurables and physical abilities?

Will signing this draftee be contrary to the franchise's historical operating rhythm? For example, will the draftee's contract be more than the team has spent in the past; will that contract cripple future moves due to the salary cap or will the team be held hostage by the compensation package, etc.

What type of bottom dollar impact could the draftee have on sales?

Will he help us win games now, tomorrow or next year?

What combination of ROI...money v. player v. return...rests with this draftee?

Those are in no particular order but taking a player is at times equal parts sales, operations, scouting and coaching.

This is why you see a few :lmao: picks over the course of Round 1 especially picks 1-15. There are always 1, 2, 3 or 4 picks that leave the general public feeling odd, uncomfortable, giggling or in a state of shock. The reason being is that the value table and proposition chart/formula used by each team is just a little different.

It is sort of like that idea that one man's art is another man's pornography. It varies a great deal and, as we have come to know, an imperfect process. Some teams, though, work the process versus getting worked by the process more often than not.

 
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