talking strategy (1 Viewer)

[eom]

and as for the giants, even though everybody talks about sitting starters in the final game at 15-0 I just don't see them passing up 16-0, even though all this is a little premature.

brady plays and the giants get a slingshot in the mouth.

don't get all excited because they beat up atlanta and san fran --- ####, even weak sister miami nearly handled them.

 

[Judge Smails]

This is going to be a surreal type game. Everyone is used to seeing teams try and play slowdown with the Colts, controlling TOP to keep their offense of the field. This time the Colts will be playing slowdown. I see a huge dose of Addai in all phases of the game. Runs up the gut, stretch plays, shovel passes and dump offs. He should get 30+ touches. Lot of short passes by Manning. Finally, I think they will be trying to bait the uber aggressive corners like Samuels to jump routes. Out pattern over and over, then Manning will torch them over the top when they bite.

Manning is impressing me with respect to staying cool under pressure. Even after the bad start at Carolina, he then comes back and surgically dissected the defense. I think he will have a tremendous game this week. The Colts win by controlling the clock. Don't know the #, and I really haven't bet in years, but seriously thinking about taking the Colts on the money line. Will make it interesting to watch. Getcha popcorn ready.

 

[twitch]

This is going to be a surreal type game. Everyone is used to seeing teams try and play slowdown with the Colts, controlling TOP to keep their offense of the field. This time the Colts will be playing slowdown. I see a huge dose of Addai in all phases of the game. Runs up the gut, stretch plays, shovel passes and dump offs. He should get 30+ touches. Lot of short passes by Manning. Finally, I think they will be trying to bait the uber aggressive corners like Samuels to jump routes. Out pattern over and over, then Manning will torch them over the top when they bite. Manning is impressing me with respect to staying cool under pressure. Even after the bad start at Carolina, he then comes back and surgically dissected the defense. I think he will have a tremendous game this week. The Colts win by controlling the clock. Don't know the #, and I really haven't bet in years, but seriously thinking about taking the Colts on the money line. Will make it interesting to watch. Getcha popcorn ready.

I just love that popcorn catch phrase. Brings back good memories. But hang on to that money. The Colts have a slew of key players banged up. And NE is beating guys by an average of over 25. If youre not betting the money on that team, youre just giving it away.

 

[twitch]

By the way, off subject. This Patrick Crayton with Dallas is a piece of work. Im watching NFL Live late here, and he's a special guest. And when asked again about the NE beatdown, the guy just says, " the sun shines on a dog's A#@ sometimes and maybe that was their day". What planet is this guy from??? Too funny.

 

[eom]

#### -- maybe he posts on this board w/10 of his cousins.

he just better worry about making the 'bowl to get another beatdown.

 

[DoubleG]

Interestingly enough the Colts passing defense (using total yards allowed) is ranked 1st (as is NE's passing game). The reason I say interestingly, is that at 7-0 the Colts have been ahead in most of their games (i.e. teams have been playing catch-up thereby passing) - you'd think those numbers would take a hit - especially in "prevent" defense situations. Conversely, NE, who has been ahead early would force teams to abandon the run, but they rank 5th (certanly very good - but not Baltimore-like)

Earlier the OP asked someone to present a scenerio that would have the Colts winning. While this will sound simple, it will not be easy:

A few interesting stats - the top-ranked RB at getting "stuffed" in the NFL is Kenton Keith (1 stuff in 72 carries) Interestingly Maroney and Addai are tied at .041 stuff % (interestngly, they are tied for 2nd behind Keith). Another interesting stat which is in the Colts favor is that the leading RB in yards/carry on artificial turf is Addai (he's averaging 6.0 ypc on turf, Keith 5.4 with Maroney at 4.8 and Morris at 4.5) Point: the Colts need to run the ball - with whichever RB is in the game. In some ways, the Colts game plan should mirror the Giants/Bills SuperBowl. All the hype was about the Bills no huddle offense and how were the Giants ever going to stop them. Parcells' answer was simple - don't let them have the ball. (Again, simple, not necessarily easy).

The Colts are also tied for the least amount of passing TD's allowed (5) and have held opposing QBs to the 3rd lowest passer rating in the NFL (69.9). One point of concern is that Indy is near the bottom in sacks (and, as has been documented, Brady w/o pressure can pick a team apart) - but this is a post about how Indy can win...

If the Colts can run the ball effectively, keeping Brady and Moss on the sidelines, then using their top ranked pass defense to keep the Pats offense from going completely insane (which, given only 5 passing TD's allowed - they can to an extent) when they are on the field, they can win.

It's amazing when you look at the stats how similar these two teams really are - both are at the top of the AFC in turnover ratio (both with +11). Both have great offenses and solid defenses. Ironically their respective offenses have switched a little - NE seems to be improving at the passing game, while Indy seems to have developed a very good ground game as of late (arguably, the NE passing attack has surpassed the Colts, while the Colts seemingly run the ball better than the Pats - at least in terms of rushing ypg and average per rush).

The other irony of this game is that the hype is like many of the previous meetings...only in reverse. The Patriots now-high flying offense is garnering all the attention and everyone is talking about "How are the Colts going to stop them?" Meanwhile the Colts, who are the defending SuperBowl champs, btw, are simply going about the business, beating other teams and doing it with a very balanced attack and good defense.

How can the Colts win? The same way NE has beaten them in the past - play solid ball control offense, spread the ball around, utilize your solid defense to pressure the opposing QB, and not allow the big play to Moss deep.

I make no prediction about the outcome...I will simply enjoy one of the best regular season matchups of all time.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I really think the key for both teams is to establish the run. They could win by throwing a lot...but so could their opponent. Better to keep them off the field and limit their possessions. I think this is the game you'll see a lot of Maroney, especially considering NE is the road team.

I see a low-scoring game and think both teams will play similarly. A good drive is one that scores. A great drive is one that scores and takes seven minutes off the clock. Both teams seem well-equipped to do that. With the game in Indy, it's hard to pick a winner. I said 17-16 NE on another thread, and I'll stick with that.

 

[Green and Gold]

The key to this game has been stated a bunch before. You need to pressure Brady, and you need to do it with only 4 rushers. Here is a telling statistic. Starting inside their own 20 yards line (having to drive 80+ yards), the league scores a TD on average of 13% of the time. Indy has scored a TD 16.6% (2 of 12) of the time on those long drives, above the league average. The Patriots score a TD a mind-boggling 78.5% (11 of 14) of the time they start inside their own 20. That's just unheard of.

When you do get pressure on Brady, the rest of the D needs to step up. Swat balls down, pick a few off, make them get in 3rd and long situations where dumping off to a back is unlikely to be a first down. You can't let Stallworth or Welker break tackles. If all of this stuff isn't done early, it won't matter; the D will be exhausted and the game will be over. The Patriot D matches up better with the Indy O than the other way around. Expect a blowout, with Cassel coming in with around 6 or 7 minutes left to play, if the Indy D doesn't take care of business.

 

[Unlucky]

I really believe that NE is on another level this year. They are far better than any team in the NFL, the Colts included. Moss is so good and opens up everything for the offense. Welker runs great routes and has great hands, moving the chains when needed. What I haven't seen thus far is constant pressure on Brady. That's what stopped the Greatest Show on Turf - pressure on the QB. The Bucs matched up well because they got pressure with just their front 4. Can Indy get pressure on Brady without singling all of the WRs? I don't know. If you blitz and leave the WRs 1 on 1, you're going to get killed.

The Redskins have a better D than Indy. Their YPA and YPC were very good going into last week. Indy does have a good YPA against, but they aren't as good against the run. If the Redskins can't even slow NE, I don't see how the Indy D fares any better.

The deciding factor has to be the Indy O vs. the NE D. Can they keep up? I just don't think they will, with Harrison being slowed, and the NE D being better than it has been the past few years. Manning will have to play perfectly, and while he can do that, I don't think he will this Sunday. Just a gut feeling that the mastermind will contain Peyton once again.

NE by at least 10.

 

[Unlucky]

The key to this game has been stated a bunch before. You need to pressure Brady, and you need to do it with only 4 rushers. Here is a telling statistic. Starting inside their own 20 yards line (having to drive 80+ yards), the league scores a TD on average of 13% of the time. Indy has scored a TD 16.6% (2 of 12) of the time on those long drives, above the league average. The Patriots score a TD a mind-boggling 78.5% (11 of 14) of the time they start inside their own 20. That's just unheard of.When you do get pressure on Brady, the rest of the D needs to step up. Swat balls down, pick a few off, make them get in 3rd and long situations where dumping off to a back is unlikely to be a first down. You can't let Stallworth or Welker break tackles. If all of this stuff isn't done early, it won't matter; the D will be exhausted and the game will be over. The Patriot D matches up better with the Indy O than the other way around. Expect a blowout, with Cassel coming in with around 6 or 7 minutes left to play, if the Indy D doesn't take care of business.

 

[eom]

The Colts are also tied for the least amount of passing TD's allowed (5) and have held opposing QBs to the 3rd lowest passer rating in the NFL (69.9).

vince youngquinn graydavid carryou realize the indy stats weren't derived against new england, right?

 

[TxBuckeye]

The Redskins have a better D than Indy. Their YPA and YPC were very good going into last week. Indy does have a good YPA against, but they aren't as good against the run. If the Redskins can't even slow NE, I don't see how the Indy D fares any better.

Simply because the Indy offense can stay on the field MUCH longer than the inept Redskins offense. NE can't run their offense and score if they are on the sidelines. That will be the key if Indy is to have any chance.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

This is going to be a surreal type game. Everyone is used to seeing teams try and play slowdown with the Colts, controlling TOP to keep their offense of the field. This time the Colts will be playing slowdown. I see a huge dose of Addai in all phases of the game. Runs up the gut, stretch plays, shovel passes and dump offs. He should get 30+ touches. Lot of short passes by Manning. Finally, I think they will be trying to bait the uber aggressive corners like Samuels to jump routes. Out pattern over and over, then Manning will torch them over the top when they bite. Manning is impressing me with respect to staying cool under pressure. Even after the bad start at Carolina, he then comes back and surgically dissected the defense. I think he will have a tremendous game this week. The Colts win by controlling the clock. Don't know the #, and I really haven't bet in years, but seriously thinking about taking the Colts on the money line. Will make it interesting to watch. Getcha popcorn ready.

I agree with all of this, with the exception that instead of Addai it will be RBBC with Keith and Addai.BB's chief concern, to me, is in not allowing Samuels to bite on the outs and not allowing the linebackers to get too nosy on the runs and fail to blanket Clark.On the other side of the ball, the big story is will Indy win or lose the play calling battle. They have to be "managed aggression" in their approach to blitzing versus drop and cover. Incredibly challenging opportunity for any team faced with dealing with Moss and Welker, etc.

 

[timschochet]

The Redskins have a better D than Indy. Their YPA and YPC were very good going into last week. Indy does have a good YPA against, but they aren't as good against the run. If the Redskins can't even slow NE, I don't see how the Indy D fares any better.

Simply because the Indy offense can stay on the field MUCH longer than the inept Redskins offense. NE can't run their offense and score if they are on the sidelines. That will be the key if Indy is to have any chance.

Great point. The key to defense in this league is for the offense to stay on the field. (Obviously, NE this year is an abberation to this rule.) One amazing thing that a lot of people have touched on is the apparent role reversal of the two teams- the Pats are now the high profile, high octane passing team filled with offensive stars and putting up tons of points; meanwhile, the Colts get the job much more with running the ball and good defense. The Pats are breaking statistical records, and the Colts are quietly confident.

Indy at their most high octane, however, (say around 2004) never had the aura of invulnerability that NE has now. In fact, no team has EVER had this level of invunerability, IMO. The 1989 49ers came close, and so did the 2000 Ravens, for different reasons, but they were not IMO perceived to be quite as great as New England is percieved to be.

And this leads me full circle to the "running up the score" arguments. I was one of the first people on this site to start a thread complaining about the sportsmanship of what NE has done, and I still feel that way. But, after giving it a great deal of thought, I have to admit that there is no greater contributer to the aura of invunerability that NE has than the scores. Hate it all you want (and I do), there is a different feel between putting up 30 pts on an opponent and putting up 45-50. It makes people believe they're impossible to beat- heck I believe it! The question is, is it just us fans who are affected, or do opposing players believe it as well. If even some of them do believe it, if they are allowing New England to "get into their heads" then running up the score actually takes on a certain amount of strategic justifiability, reprehensible as I personally think it is.

 

[timschochet]

This is going to be a surreal type game. Everyone is used to seeing teams try and play slowdown with the Colts, controlling TOP to keep their offense of the field. This time the Colts will be playing slowdown. I see a huge dose of Addai in all phases of the game. Runs up the gut, stretch plays, shovel passes and dump offs. He should get 30+ touches. Lot of short passes by Manning. Finally, I think they will be trying to bait the uber aggressive corners like Samuels to jump routes. Out pattern over and over, then Manning will torch them over the top when they bite. Manning is impressing me with respect to staying cool under pressure. Even after the bad start at Carolina, he then comes back and surgically dissected the defense. I think he will have a tremendous game this week. The Colts win by controlling the clock. Don't know the #, and I really haven't bet in years, but seriously thinking about taking the Colts on the money line. Will make it interesting to watch. Getcha popcorn ready.

I agree with all of this, with the exception that instead of Addai it will be RBBC with Keith and Addai.BB's chief concern, to me, is in not allowing Samuels to bite on the outs and not allowing the linebackers to get too nosy on the runs and fail to blanket Clark.On the other side of the ball, the big story is will Indy win or lose the play calling battle. They have to be "managed aggression" in their approach to blitzing versus drop and cover. Incredibly challenging opportunity for any team faced with dealing with Moss and Welker, etc.

As an owner of both Addai and Keith, I am VERY interested in why you think it will be RBBC this week. Conventional wisdom after last week seems to be that Addai will get the large bulk of carries. What makes you think differently?

 

[massmarauder]

Indy can beat NE this week the same way that NE beat The Greatest Show on Turf in the Superbowl. Bang the WRs at the line, hit them hard when they DO catch the ball, and put tons of pressure on Brady. Make them beat you with Maroney/Faulk. And keep your offense on the field as much as possible, eating up the field with small passes and good runs. Deliberate, focused attacks.

 

[DawnBTVS]

The thing that I really like about the Patriots offense is their ability, when making those 70-80 yard drives to use the short game to get the 1st downs rather than forcing the 15-20 yard throws downfield. Brady isn't afraid to throw the screen/dump off to Kevin Faulk for 8-9 yards and is just as effective at hitting the underneath slants for 5-7 yards to set up manageable 3rd downs.

The big keys for the Colts defense are...

1: Stop the 3rd downs. Period. They've completed 42/86 (48.9%) on 3rd down and have gone a sterling 8/12 (66.7%) on 4th down. If the Colts want to keep the Patriots offense off the field, they need to stop them when the Patriots are facing those 3rd and 5, 3rd and 4, or 3rd and 3 situations.

2: When pressuring Brady, keep a man on the short options (TE, RB, Welker). Dallas was effective at this tactic and kept themselves in the game at times by not only pressuring Brady but not allowing the dump offs/quick slants to get YAC as well.

3: The Patriots pre-dominantly have passed for the 1st down (run is 35.7% and pass is 58.8%) partly because of effectiveness and injuries to their RBs. Don't forget about Laurence Maroney and get too wrapped up in stopping the pass. Maroney has had 72, 77, 103, and 75 yards rushing when healthy. Sammy Morris ran for 117 and 102 yards. Kevin Faulk ran for 47 yards vs. Dallas and 27 yards vs. Miami. The Patriots can and will run the ball so while you focus on the pass, don't forget the run.

The big keys for the Patriots defense are...

1: Force the Colts into 3rd and 7 or 3rd and 8 (or longer) situations. The Colts themselves have gotten 53.9% of their 3rd downs converted and like the Patriots, can make those short 3rd downs pretty easily. The Patriots need to force the Colts to stay in long 3rd downs and hope that their LBs can cover Dallas Clark, Addai, and Wayne on the outside corner routes.

2: The Colts are effective in getting the 1st by the run or pass (41.5% and 53.6%). Force the Colts to try the run on 2nd down to get a long 3rd down (aim to stop any passes on 1st down) and hope you can get into step 1.

 

[adamjw2]

I want to bring up another point of discussion that I think has been overlooked here and that is that the come from behind win in the AFC Championship game wasn't the only matchup last year between the two teams.

I know it was last year and the teams are different, but IIRC there are three interesting points about the first game they played last year that we should discuss: 1. Indy never trailed in that game, 2. Brady threw 4 Interceptions, and 3. the Pats ran the ball well in that game.

Also IIRC, a couple of those INTs were passes that should have been caught and were then picked off, which should be negated with NE's new receiving corps this year.

Does anyone else remember anything that was key to this game?

 

[Judge Smails]

This is going to be a surreal type game. Everyone is used to seeing teams try and play slowdown with the Colts, controlling TOP to keep their offense of the field. This time the Colts will be playing slowdown. I see a huge dose of Addai in all phases of the game. Runs up the gut, stretch plays, shovel passes and dump offs. He should get 30+ touches. Lot of short passes by Manning. Finally, I think they will be trying to bait the uber aggressive corners like Samuels to jump routes. Out pattern over and over, then Manning will torch them over the top when they bite. Manning is impressing me with respect to staying cool under pressure. Even after the bad start at Carolina, he then comes back and surgically dissected the defense. I think he will have a tremendous game this week. The Colts win by controlling the clock. Don't know the #, and I really haven't bet in years, but seriously thinking about taking the Colts on the money line. Will make it interesting to watch. Getcha popcorn ready.

I agree with all of this, with the exception that instead of Addai it will be RBBC with Keith and Addai.BB's chief concern, to me, is in not allowing Samuels to bite on the outs and not allowing the linebackers to get too nosy on the runs and fail to blanket Clark.On the other side of the ball, the big story is will Indy win or lose the play calling battle. They have to be "managed aggression" in their approach to blitzing versus drop and cover. Incredibly challenging opportunity for any team faced with dealing with Moss and Welker, etc.

As an owner of both Addai and Keith, I am VERY interested in why you think it will be RBBC this week. Conventional wisdom after last week seems to be that Addai will get the large bulk of carries. What makes you think differently?

I'd be shocked if Keith got much time. He looked shaky last week. Fumble ruled an incomplete pass, and missed blocks on passing plays. This game is too important. Addai sure looked healthy last week. Can't see Keith in there more than an occasional spell of Addai. Only way this changes is if the Colts are somehow dominant in the running game and are pounding it down the Pats throats. Then Keith may get more action.

 

[Green and Gold]

Indy can beat NE this week the same way that NE beat The Greatest Show on Turf in the Superbowl. Bang the WRs at the line, hit them hard when they DO catch the ball, and put tons of pressure on Brady. Make them beat you with Maroney/Faulk. And keep your offense on the field as much as possible, eating up the field with small passes and good runs. Deliberate, focused attacks.

Too bad Polian worked so hard to make this more difficult. Oh, the irony.

 

[pats3in4]

I believe the Pats will not use a combo of Adalius Thomas and Rodney Harrison on Dallas Clark, but rather will use Randall Gay to play him man-to-man. Gay might even start in place of FS James Sanders to accomplish this. I think Adalius Thomas will be instructed to key on Addai the entire game since he's fast enough to track him sideline to sideline and cover him. In the base D, Rodney will probably be the safety help deep and in the nickel (when Sanders and Gay are both in the game), he'll both play back and blitz.

The matchup that interests me is what the Pats will do when the Colts bring Anthony Gonzales into the game. I can see the Colts spreading the Pats out with Wayne and Harrison (assuming he plays) wide and both Clark and Gonzales in the slots. Should be interesting.

 

[DoubleG]

The Colts are also tied for the least amount of passing TD's allowed (5) and have held opposing QBs to the 3rd lowest passer rating in the NFL (69.9).

vince youngquinn graydavid carryou realize the indy stats weren't derived against new england, right?

Yes, thank you.The Colts can only play the teams one their schedule. I realize that NE has played what would be considered a tougher schedule than the Colts. But 7-0 in the NFL is still 7-0.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Indy can beat NE this week the same way that NE beat The Greatest Show on Turf in the Superbowl. Bang the WRs at the line, hit them hard when they DO catch the ball, and put tons of pressure on Brady. Make them beat you with Maroney/Faulk. And keep your offense on the field as much as possible, eating up the field with small passes and good runs. Deliberate, focused attacks.

This is not a good recipe for containing NE's offense. Martz was too arrogant and refused to hand off the ball to Faulk. NE will take what is given.Further, disrupting the Rams attack was about disrupting timing. NE's passing attack is (directionally anyway) is more about hitting the open man versus throwing to a spot.Third, for all the talk about the skill positions and the coaches being the reason for dominance this year, it's really the Oline that is at the root of offensive dominance this year. You can forget about bringing pressure with the front 4 only; selective blitzing will be required.Finally, as noted above, Polian succeeded in minimizing the effect that banging receivers can have. I know there is a lot of love being given right now to the idea that Moss and Stallworth are soft, but I for one will be very surprised to see any benefit gained by trying to be physical with NE's WRs.Is it really only Wednesday?

 

[DoubleG]

Finally, as noted above, Polian succeeded in minimizing the effect that banging receivers can have. I know there is a lot of love being given right now to the idea that Moss and Stallworth are soft, but I for one will be very surprised to see any benefit gained by trying to be physical with NE's WRs.

As a Bears fan, I saw Moss quite a bit for a while. There's a reason they send Welker over the middle - Randy don't roll that way. Physical play WILL work at keeping Moss' arms "short" - it did when he was with Minny and it will now. That said, you have to stop more than just Moss to beat NE.

 

[[icon]]

To those touting Indy's #1 ranked pass defense.... check out this post from another thread:

Before you throw out the "IND has the fewest yards allowed (passing)" number.... I suggest you take a look at the passing offenses they've played thus far and consider the impact of those games on their averages:

• Tennessee (29th ranked pass offense)

• Jacksonville (27th)

• Carolina (26th)

So they've played 3 of the 7 worst passing attacks in the league. Now it's look at the 2 GOOD passing attacks they faced:

• New Orleans (8th)

They got New Orleans at a very opportune time (week one) well before the team was firing on all cylinders. Brees still hung almost 200 yards on Indy.

• Houston (4th)

Houston sure looks pretty, except they faced them the first week after Schaub lost Andre Johnson as a target. The passing game was still struggling to recover yet Schaub STILL managed to hang 236 Yards on this Indy Defense.

Indy is about to face the top passing attack in the league (by a LARGE margin) and unlike NO and HOU (who have scored HALF as many points as NE this year) they will not be facing them at their weakest points all season. On the contrary.... New England is AVERAGING 50 POINTS A GAME over the last 3 games... and 2 of those games were against Dallas and Washington who both supposedly had pretty solid defenses.

Indy hasn't faced a passing attack anywhere CLOSE to what they're going to come up against on Sunday. The only 2 decent passing attacks they've faced till now have been hobbled. Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball through the air against indy and will burn them for at LEAST one 50+ Yard TD pass to Moss.

New England will post no less than 27 points (if it turns into a ball-control ground war)... and my honest prediction is 40-45 points scored. I just don't think Indy can keep up.

 

[twitch]

I believe the Pats will not use a combo of Adalius Thomas and Rodney Harrison on Dallas Clark, but rather will use Randall Gay to play him man-to-man. Gay might even start in place of FS James Sanders to accomplish this. I think Adalius Thomas will be instructed to key on Addai the entire game since he's fast enough to track him sideline to sideline and cover him. In the base D, Rodney will probably be the safety help deep and in the nickel (when Sanders and Gay are both in the game), he'll both play back and blitz.

The matchup that interests me is what the Pats will do when the Colts bring Anthony Gonzales into the game. I can see the Colts spreading the Pats out with Wayne and Harrison (assuming he plays) wide and both Clark and Gonzales in the slots. Should be interesting.

Good stuff here. I like the idea of Thomas shading Addai. And I agree that will be part of the formula. And Id expect Vrabel and Colvin to be in on that coverage a little as well. Shutting down Addai is step 1. And shutting him down inside the guards is where that starts. Hopefully, Wilfork, Bruschi and Seau/Thomas will be up to that task. Randall Gay has been good in coverage, but I think he gives up too much size. If the Colts hit Clark over the top down the seam with Gay on him, Clark will shrug him off like a fly and score all day. Theyll need Rodney Harrison helping out with that task. I can see Gay and Brandon Merriweather working on Gonzalez in nickel and dime packages. I have a feeling they'll be in those matchups a good bit.

But imo, as youve covered, limiting Addai and Clark are the keys to shutting down the Colts in this one. Wayne is of course a threat, but I feel good about Samuel and Hobbs on him.

 

[pats3in4]

I believe the Pats will not use a combo of Adalius Thomas and Rodney Harrison on Dallas Clark, but rather will use Randall Gay to play him man-to-man. Gay might even start in place of FS James Sanders to accomplish this. I think Adalius Thomas will be instructed to key on Addai the entire game since he's fast enough to track him sideline to sideline and cover him. In the base D, Rodney will probably be the safety help deep and in the nickel (when Sanders and Gay are both in the game), he'll both play back and blitz.

The matchup that interests me is what the Pats will do when the Colts bring Anthony Gonzales into the game. I can see the Colts spreading the Pats out with Wayne and Harrison (assuming he plays) wide and both Clark and Gonzales in the slots. Should be interesting.

Good stuff here. I like the idea of Thomas shading Addai. And I agree that will be part of the formula. And Id expect Vrabel and Colvin to be in on that coverage a little as well. Shutting down Addai is step 1. And shutting him down inside the guards is where that starts. Hopefully, Wilfork, Bruschi and Seau/Thomas will be up to that task. Randall Gay has been good in coverage, but I think he gives up too much size. If the Colts hit Clark over the top down the seam with Gay on him, Clark will shrug him off like a fly and score all day. Theyll need Rodney Harrison helping out with that task. I can see Gay and Brandon Merriweather working on Gonzalez in nickel and dime packages. I have a feeling they'll be in those matchups a good bit.

But imo, as youve covered, limiting Addai and Clark are the keys to shutting down the Colts in this one. Wayne is of course a threat, but I feel good about Samuel and Hobbs on him.

Clark is a small TE, more of an H-Back, similar to Chris Cooley in stature. The Pats used Gay on Cooley quite a bit so I expect a repeat performance with Gay on Clark. Cooley, clearly Campbell's favorite target, ended up being a non-factor. I hope Gay can make Clark disappear as well.With Gonzales being a rookie, it wouldn't shock me if the Pats bump the crap out of him at the LOS, testing his ability to shake the bump and keeping his head in the game after absorbing a lot of punishment.

 

[djcolts]

To those touting Indy's #1 ranked pass defense.... check out this post from another thread:

Before you throw out the "IND has the fewest yards allowed (passing)" number.... I suggest you take a look at the passing offenses they've played thus far and consider the impact of those games on their averages:

• Tennessee (29th ranked pass offense)

• Jacksonville (27th)

• Carolina (26th)

So they've played 3 of the 7 worst passing attacks in the league. Now it's look at the 2 GOOD passing attacks they faced:

• New Orleans (8th)

They got New Orleans at a very opportune time (week one) well before the team was firing on all cylinders. Brees still hung almost 200 yards on Indy.

• Houston (4th)

Houston sure looks pretty, except they faced them the first week after Schaub lost Andre Johnson as a target. The passing game was still struggling to recover yet Schaub STILL managed to hang 236 Yards on this Indy Defense.

Indy is about to face the top passing attack in the league (by a LARGE margin) and unlike NO and HOU (who have scored HALF as many points as NE this year) they will not be facing them at their weakest points all season. On the contrary.... New England is AVERAGING 50 POINTS A GAME over the last 3 games... and 2 of those games were against Dallas and Washington who both supposedly had pretty solid defenses.

Indy hasn't faced a passing attack anywhere CLOSE to what they're going to come up against on Sunday. The only 2 decent passing attacks they've faced till now have been hobbled. Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball through the air against indy and will burn them for at LEAST one 50+ Yard TD pass to Moss.

New England will post no less than 27 points (if it turns into a ball-control ground war)... and my honest prediction is 40-45 points scored. I just don't think Indy can keep up.

I looked at the drive charts for the last 3 NE games. Dallas didn't have a single 5:00+ drive. Washingon's longest drive was 9 plays and 4:00. Miami had ball control - but only in the 2nd half when the game was over. Indy has morphed into a ball-control offense to counter what most teams do to them on defense, and they've become very good at it. Indy's D is generally designed to prevent the big play - so I expect a lot of Welker in this game, with Maroney getting a good number of running opportunities. For those two reasons, I don't think NE will score 40 unless the Colts turn it over at least twice.

 

[timschochet]

One thing that the Pats just kill people with is that little pass to Faulk for 8 or 9 yards. They've been running this play for years now, but this year he always seems to be wide open, and it's always looks like such an easy pitch and catch. How in the world do you stop this play without risking a bigger play elsewhere?

 

[twitch]

To those touting Indy's #1 ranked pass defense.... check out this post from another thread:

Before you throw out the "IND has the fewest yards allowed (passing)" number.... I suggest you take a look at the passing offenses they've played thus far and consider the impact of those games on their averages:

• Tennessee (29th ranked pass offense)

• Jacksonville (27th)

• Carolina (26th)

So they've played 3 of the 7 worst passing attacks in the league. Now it's look at the 2 GOOD passing attacks they faced:

• New Orleans (8th)

They got New Orleans at a very opportune time (week one) well before the team was firing on all cylinders. Brees still hung almost 200 yards on Indy.

• Houston (4th)

Houston sure looks pretty, except they faced them the first week after Schaub lost Andre Johnson as a target. The passing game was still struggling to recover yet Schaub STILL managed to hang 236 Yards on this Indy Defense.

Indy is about to face the top passing attack in the league (by a LARGE margin) and unlike NO and HOU (who have scored HALF as many points as NE this year) they will not be facing them at their weakest points all season. On the contrary.... New England is AVERAGING 50 POINTS A GAME over the last 3 games... and 2 of those games were against Dallas and Washington who both supposedly had pretty solid defenses.

Indy hasn't faced a passing attack anywhere CLOSE to what they're going to come up against on Sunday. The only 2 decent passing attacks they've faced till now have been hobbled. Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball through the air against indy and will burn them for at LEAST one 50+ Yard TD pass to Moss.

New England will post no less than 27 points (if it turns into a ball-control ground war)... and my honest prediction is 40-45 points scored. I just don't think Indy can keep up.

I looked at the drive charts for the last 3 NE games. Dallas didn't have a single 5:00+ drive. Washingon's longest drive was 9 plays and 4:00. Miami had ball control - but only in the 2nd half when the game was over. Indy has morphed into a ball-control offense to counter what most teams do to them on defense, and they've become very good at it. Indy's D is generally designed to prevent the big play - so I expect a lot of Welker in this game, with Maroney getting a good number of running opportunities. For those two reasons, I don't think NE will score 40 unless the Colts turn it over at least twice.

FWIW, New England is #1 in the league defensively at 3rd down conversions allowed @ 29%. And not that it matters really, but Indy is 28th @ 46% allowed. Which is interesting because Indy has a stout D, as does Pittsburgh, and theyre only 25th @ 44%. Both NE and Indy are good at converting 3rd downs on O. Indy is ranked 2nd @ 54% and NE is 3rd @ 49%. And finally, NE is 2nd in the league @ offensive Time of Possession at 34:06 and Indy is 11th @ 30:52. Ball control will be a factor. But not as much as big plays and turnovers, imo.

 

[twitch]

One thing that the Pats just kill people with is that little pass to Faulk for 8 or 9 yards. They've been running this play for years now, but this year he always seems to be wide open, and it's always looks like such an easy pitch and catch. How in the world do you stop this play without risking a bigger play elsewhere?

Faulk almost has a PhD in catching the ball out of the backfield, blitz pickups, screens, dumps, draws. The guy knows that system. He's an all-time Patriot, and also a team captain. He's been one of my favorite players for years. a perfect team player. No doubt headed for the Patriot HOF.

 

[Jercules]

The Colts will have to run hurry up and use the passing game to set up runs with Addai. The NE front 7 is huge and is built to control the LOS - wearing them out with constant hurry up (much like in the AFC CG) is probably the way to go. Manning is going to have to trust Wayne and Harrison to defeat single coverage because, as many have already pointed out, the Pats shouldn't have such difficulty defending Clark this time around.

Health will be a factor - Harrison, Samuel, Watson, Maroney, etc. will all play roles. Cover 2 defenses are traditionally weak against athletic TE's that can take advantage of a LB matchup - if Watson can play, he ought to have a big impact.

I'm not as sold on Bob Sanders being the key to stopping the run for Indy. I realize his return correlated with their D getting stronger last year - but the guy is a safety. If a safety is the key to your run defense you're not in great shape. Against NE he shouldn't be a huge factor - loading the box against NE is probably the worst possible defensive strategy to employ.

Rodney Harrison will be huge. Not because he's talented, and not because he's mean (if there's one thing that's worked against the Colts in the past that I believe they've overcome, it's the "finesse" factor. They're a tough team that won't be bullied like they have in the past). Harrison is the key to NE disguising it's coverages and confusing Manning. Against the Colts this is huge because they rely so much on audibles. If he's wrong even once or twice, and gets sacked or picked at the wrong time, that could easily be the difference. The Colts have defeated the Pats 3 times straight - I know for sure Harrison wasn't healthy for at least 2 of those games.

Nobody in the Colts' defensive backfield can match up with Moss (nobody really anywhere can, but the Indy corners specifically). One theory being postulated is that Indy might try to rough up the Pats, jam Moss hard at the line and bang Brady around. If Dwight Freeney has his way against Matt Light, the Pats will use Kyle Brady to help him out. If Indy blitzes, Kevin Faulk and Welker are effective outlet options at worst - at best, Brady has time to find Moss/Stallworth/Watson. None of this factors in Maroney, whom if healthy ought to give NE the opportunity to control the clock and keep Manning off the field.

In the end, Dungy isn't the coach Belichick is. He has a talented team and he'll put them out on the field and let them do what they do - and NE will have to find a way to stop it. Belichick is much more involved than that, and he has the personnel to do pretty much anything he wants with his game plans. I doubt this game ends any differently for NE than the first 8 have - Pats 30+, Colts 10+.

 

[djcolts]

To those touting Indy's #1 ranked pass defense.... check out this post from another thread:

Before you throw out the "IND has the fewest yards allowed (passing)" number.... I suggest you take a look at the passing offenses they've played thus far and consider the impact of those games on their averages:

• Tennessee (29th ranked pass offense)

• Jacksonville (27th)

• Carolina (26th)

So they've played 3 of the 7 worst passing attacks in the league. Now it's look at the 2 GOOD passing attacks they faced:

• New Orleans (8th)

They got New Orleans at a very opportune time (week one) well before the team was firing on all cylinders. Brees still hung almost 200 yards on Indy.

• Houston (4th)

Houston sure looks pretty, except they faced them the first week after Schaub lost Andre Johnson as a target. The passing game was still struggling to recover yet Schaub STILL managed to hang 236 Yards on this Indy Defense.

Indy is about to face the top passing attack in the league (by a LARGE margin) and unlike NO and HOU (who have scored HALF as many points as NE this year) they will not be facing them at their weakest points all season. On the contrary.... New England is AVERAGING 50 POINTS A GAME over the last 3 games... and 2 of those games were against Dallas and Washington who both supposedly had pretty solid defenses.

Indy hasn't faced a passing attack anywhere CLOSE to what they're going to come up against on Sunday. The only 2 decent passing attacks they've faced till now have been hobbled. Patriots will have no trouble moving the ball through the air against indy and will burn them for at LEAST one 50+ Yard TD pass to Moss.

New England will post no less than 27 points (if it turns into a ball-control ground war)... and my honest prediction is 40-45 points scored. I just don't think Indy can keep up.

I looked at the drive charts for the last 3 NE games. Dallas didn't have a single 5:00+ drive. Washingon's longest drive was 9 plays and 4:00. Miami had ball control - but only in the 2nd half when the game was over. Indy has morphed into a ball-control offense to counter what most teams do to them on defense, and they've become very good at it. Indy's D is generally designed to prevent the big play - so I expect a lot of Welker in this game, with Maroney getting a good number of running opportunities. For those two reasons, I don't think NE will score 40 unless the Colts turn it over at least twice.

FWIW, New England is #1 in the league defensively at 3rd down conversions allowed @ 29%. And not that it matters really, but Indy is 28th @ 46% allowed. Which is interesting because Indy has a stout D, as does Pittsburgh, and theyre only 25th @ 44%. Both NE and Indy are good at converting 3rd downs on O. Indy is ranked 2nd @ 54% and NE is 3rd @ 49%. And finally, NE is 2nd in the league @ offensive Time of Possession at 34:06 and Indy is 11th @ 30:52. Ball control will be a factor. But not as much as big plays and turnovers, imo.

My point was about the number of points the Pats will score, not the outcome of the game. The Pats put 52 on the Skins - not because of "running up the score" - not even because the offense was impressive (and, it was - that's not my point). It was a lot because the Skins offense was ineffective and turned the ball over a bunch (one for a TD the other way). The Colts will likely be a lot better than the Skins on offense - and the Colts are less of a quick-strike offense than in the past - so that is why even if you argue that Skins D >>> Colts D doesn't necessarily mean the Pats will be a shoo-in to score 40+ even if the Colts D is as bad as some are arguing here.

 

[[icon]]

One thing that the Pats just kill people with is that little pass to Faulk for 8 or 9 yards. They've been running this play for years now, but this year he always seems to be wide open, and it's always looks like such an easy pitch and catch. How in the world do you stop this play without risking a bigger play elsewhere?

Faulk almost has a PhD in catching the ball out of the backfield, blitz pickups, screens, dumps, draws. The guy knows that system. He's an all-time Patriot, and also a team captain. He's been one of my favorite players for years. a perfect team player. No doubt headed for the Patriot HOF.

Faulk will be a significant factor in this game unless indy gameplans to stop him. If they do that, then Brady will destroy them elsewhere (moss/welker/stallworth/watson/maroney). Honestly I'd almost like to see a defense figure out a way to stop this pats offense just so I could see how the hell they did it... because while i'm far from a great football mind, I have NO idea who you can contain this beast.

 

[parrot]

Indy can beat NE this week the same way that NE beat The Greatest Show on Turf in the Superbowl. Bang the WRs at the line, hit them hard when they DO catch the ball, and put tons of pressure on Brady. Make them beat you with Maroney/Faulk. And keep your offense on the field as much as possible, eating up the field with small passes and good runs. Deliberate, focused attacks.

This is not a good recipe for containing NE's offense. Martz was too arrogant and refused to hand off the ball to Faulk. NE will take what is given.Further, disrupting the Rams attack was about disrupting timing. NE's passing attack is (directionally anyway) is more about hitting the open man versus throwing to a spot.Third, for all the talk about the skill positions and the coaches being the reason for dominance this year, it's really the Oline that is at the root of offensive dominance this year. You can forget about bringing pressure with the front 4 only; selective blitzing will be required.Finally, as noted above, Polian succeeded in minimizing the effect that banging receivers can have. I know there is a lot of love being given right now to the idea that Moss and Stallworth are soft, but I for one will be very surprised to see any benefit gained by trying to be physical with NE's WRs.Is it really only Wednesday?

Also, Faulk was actually the Patriots' primary defensive focus according to Halberstam.

 

[twitch]

My point was about the number of points the Pats will score, not the outcome of the game. The Pats put 52 on the Skins - not because of "running up the score" - not even because the offense was impressive (and, it was - that's not my point). It was a lot because the Skins offense was ineffective and turned the ball over a bunch (one for a TD the other way). The Colts will likely be a lot better than the Skins on offense - and the Colts are less of a quick-strike offense than in the past - so that is why even if you argue that Skins D >>> Colts D doesn't necessarily mean the Pats will be a shoo-in to score 40+ even if the Colts D is as bad as some are arguing here.

Good points taken. I dont expect NE to drop a 50spot on the Colts. And Manning is prone to throw pick 6s, but Im not expecting it. He may. Who knows. My main point was just that NE is about as good as it gets right now stopping teams on 3rd down. And Manning is as good as it gets converting. Those matchups are going to be great to see. There will be great matchups on both sides at all times. This game is mouth watering.

 

[pats3in4]

Faulk almost has a PhD in catching the ball out of the backfield, blitz pickups, screens, dumps, draws. The guy knows that system. He's an all-time Patriot, and also a team captain. He's been one of my favorite players for years. a perfect team player. No doubt headed for the Patriot HOF.

I forget who it was, but some Patriot said earlier this year if you put Kevin Faulk's brain in Laurence Maroney's body, you would have the best RB in the NFL.

 

[timschochet]

I also don't think Addai gets the respect he deserves. Although highly sought after in fantasy football, many think he is simply a product of the system rather than a talented back. They point to the success that Kenton Keith had two weeks ago, and claim that any RB behind that line and with the safeties playing back will have successful yardage. But I think Indy's opponent this week provided a good contrast: Maroney was more highly thought of than Addai coming into the draft by a lot of people (was he drafted higher? I can't remember). Maroney also plays behind a great line and with a high octane offense that prevents 8 men in the box. Yet he has not performed on Addai's level, IMO. I'm not trying to dis Maroney, I'm saying that Addai is a lot more talented than people give him credit for.

 

[timschochet]

Another point to make about Indy- they are one of only two teams in the league that won't be awed by New England, the other is Pittsburgh. Why? because these are the only three teams that have a core of starting players intact who wear Superbowl rings. You cannot understate the significance of this. All those times Indy was great in the past, there was always that question mark in the back of their minds- can we really do this? Now they know they can. The Steelers do too. Having that ring means you will never be intimidated again.

 

[eom]

I don't know that there's any 'trick' or 'key' to beating any team on the level these 2 teams are on --- what you really need to do is go out and beat them on the field man to man.

you need to kill drives by stuffing their back at the line of scrimmage and getting to the qb behind the line.

on the flip side, you want to stop the other guy from doing that to you, and you really don't want to get beat and give up the big play -- ask dre bly.

all those stats people like to look at to make it easier to compare teams are really worthless, as they weren't derived against each other, or even common opponents, but I can look at last year's games, plug in some new names and extrapolate out from that.

and to anyone who likes to use the lamest argument of all --- "colts beat the pats 3 in a row!" --- the colts have not only never played this team, they've never seen a team like it.

 

[twitch]

Another point to make about Indy- they are one of only two teams in the league that won't be awed by New England, the other is Pittsburgh. Why? because these are the only three teams that have a core of starting players intact who wear Superbowl rings. You cannot understate the significance of this. All those times Indy was great in the past, there was always that question mark in the back of their minds- can we really do this? Now they know they can. The Steelers do too. Having that ring means you will never be intimidated again.

This is interesting. I sort of half believe it and half dont. The general idea that teams can be in 'awe' of other teams. Dallas certainly wasnt in awe. Miami may have been, but many of those players were part of a team that beat New England 21-0 last year. I dont think the 'Skins were. Atleast not for the first half. I think the 'shock and awe' factor may be a little overrated. I guarantee you Washington came into that game thinking they could actually win that game. NE's not counting on the intimidation factor. I think theyre counting on being more ready to execute their gameplan. And for teams that dont execute their own, or cant stop NE's , then they'll just be in a world of hurt. It all comes down to execution. And as usual, for as many great matchups as there are to break down, the game will be decided in the trenches. Can NE's offensive tackles contain Mathis and Freeney? What kind of pressure will Indy be able to bring up the middle? Will a rookie LT or a backup be able to deal with a rotation of Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green at RDE? NE has so many bodies to rotate in, they can keep guys fresh throughout the game. If Manning gets into the hurry up, it will limit some of that rotating. But it will also hurt their running game, imo. Theyre not overpowering NE's front 7 with draws out of the shotgun. And Im going to give a decided edge to Asante Samuel on Marvin Harrison in this one. Samuel is already the defensive equal imo, but if Marvin isnt 100%, then he'll certainly get shut down. Or will Samuel be assigned to Reggie Wayne in this one? Wayne normally lines up on the left, which is Ellis Hobbs' usual domain at RCB. Id like to see a switch, but Im pretty sure Hobbs will stick with the Wayne assignment for the most part. Clark is still the most interesting cover. Im looking forward to seeing Bill's plan to account for him because Clark is absolutely playing at an All-Pro level. Id mention Pittsburgh a little here, T, but there'll be a time and a place for that. We'll cross that bridge in a few weeks.

 

[timschochet]

Another point to make about Indy- they are one of only two teams in the league that won't be awed by New England, the other is Pittsburgh. Why? because these are the only three teams that have a core of starting players intact who wear Superbowl rings. You cannot understate the significance of this. All those times Indy was great in the past, there was always that question mark in the back of their minds- can we really do this? Now they know they can. The Steelers do too. Having that ring means you will never be intimidated again.

This is interesting. I sort of half believe it and half dont. The general idea that teams can be in 'awe' of other teams. Dallas certainly wasnt in awe. Miami may have been, but many of those players were part of a team that beat New England 21-0 last year. I dont think the 'Skins were. Atleast not for the first half. I think the 'shock and awe' factor may be a little overrated. I guarantee you Washington came into that game thinking they could actually win that game. NE's not counting on the intimidation factor. I think theyre counting on being more ready to execute their gameplan. And for teams that dont execute their own, or cant stop NE's , then they'll just be in a world of hurt. It all comes down to execution. And as usual, for as many great matchups as there are to break down, the game will be decided in the trenches. Can NE's offensive tackles contain Mathis and Freeney? What kind of pressure will Indy be able to bring up the middle? Will a rookie LT or a backup be able to deal with a rotation of Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green at RDE? NE has so many bodies to rotate in, they can keep guys fresh throughout the game. If Manning gets into the hurry up, it will limit some of that rotating. But it will also hurt their running game, imo. Theyre not overpowering NE's front 7 with draws out of the shotgun. And Im going to give a decided edge to Asante Samuel on Marvin Harrison in this one. Samuel is already the defensive equal imo, but if Marvin isnt 100%, then he'll certainly get shut down. Or will Samuel be assigned to Reggie Wayne in this one? Wayne normally lines up on the left, which is Ellis Hobbs' usual domain at RCB. Id like to see a switch, but Im pretty sure Hobbs will stick with the Wayne assignment for the most part. Clark is still the most interesting cover. Im looking forward to seeing Bill's plan to account for him because Clark is absolutely playing at an All-Pro level. Id mention Pittsburgh a little here, T, but there'll be a time and a place for that. We'll cross that bridge in a few weeks.

Let's clarify this. First of all, I don't think that either Indy or Pittsburgh has equal talent to NE. Further, I don' t think either of them are as well coached, or play as much together as a team, though they are both very good. Subsequently, I am unable to pick either to beat the Pats, and judging from what I'm reading, not too many people do, either (the Colts fans seem more hopeful than confident, though of course if Indy does win they'll claim they knew it all along).What I am suggesting though is that if you study the history of big games in the NFL, you find that the less experienced team more often than not folds under pressure. This is never more true than in the Superbowl, where games that should be decided by 6-10 points based on talent often turn into total wipeouts. I believe this is because the teams that haven't won championships have question marks in the back of their minds, Yes, they are confident going in, but when they find themselves behind or under pressure, that confidence dies quickly and they get flustered. So they don't execute, and the QB will throw picks, and a blowout ensues.There's only three teams currently that I am SURE are above this: NE, Indy, and Pittsburgh. How they match up against each other is a different issue, but they won't lose due to uncertainty. I could also include Green Bay, perhaps, because Farve has been to the wars, is unafraid, and could infuse his team with a steady confidence in a tough situation. But outside of these, how many other QB's are there with championship rings? Kurt Warner, when he's healthy? And that's it. You can't in my opinion, trust any of the other playoff-bound teams not to fold when the pressure's on. And that's the difference between them and the three I have mentioned.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

In a game like this, no one would really think home field advantage really meant anything. Certainly the betting line is proving that to be true. But does anyone think that having the home field helps the Colts O control the clock more than they would if this game was in Foxboro?

I think the point made that Manning should run a hurry up offence is a good one, as it will help to keep the Pats D off-kilter, situationally taking advantage of keeping the proper personnel off the field on the other side of the ball, and hopefully tiring out the defensive front seven.

Manning's excellence as a field marshal rests on his ability to audible at the line and shift the offensive set to attack vulnerable seams and soft spots in coverage. He has shown his ability to do this on the road as well as at home, but I think that playing such an important game on familiar ground in front of sympathetic fans will help Manning's focus and give him an atmosphere more conducive to calling plays at the line of scrimmage that much more.

I am not saying that having home field advantage will be the deciding factor in this game. But given how the Colts O -- and Manning in particular -- is able to attack opposing Ds, it could be an intangible difference that helps the Colts move the ball consistently, and keep the ball away from Brady.

 

[twitch]

Another point to make about Indy- they are one of only two teams in the league that won't be awed by New England, the other is Pittsburgh. Why? because these are the only three teams that have a core of starting players intact who wear Superbowl rings. You cannot understate the significance of this. All those times Indy was great in the past, there was always that question mark in the back of their minds- can we really do this? Now they know they can. The Steelers do too. Having that ring means you will never be intimidated again.

This is interesting. I sort of half believe it and half dont. The general idea that teams can be in 'awe' of other teams. Dallas certainly wasnt in awe. Miami may have been, but many of those players were part of a team that beat New England 21-0 last year. I dont think the 'Skins were. Atleast not for the first half. I think the 'shock and awe' factor may be a little overrated. I guarantee you Washington came into that game thinking they could actually win that game. NE's not counting on the intimidation factor. I think theyre counting on being more ready to execute their gameplan. And for teams that dont execute their own, or cant stop NE's , then they'll just be in a world of hurt. It all comes down to execution. And as usual, for as many great matchups as there are to break down, the game will be decided in the trenches. Can NE's offensive tackles contain Mathis and Freeney? What kind of pressure will Indy be able to bring up the middle? Will a rookie LT or a backup be able to deal with a rotation of Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green at RDE? NE has so many bodies to rotate in, they can keep guys fresh throughout the game. If Manning gets into the hurry up, it will limit some of that rotating. But it will also hurt their running game, imo. Theyre not overpowering NE's front 7 with draws out of the shotgun. And Im going to give a decided edge to Asante Samuel on Marvin Harrison in this one. Samuel is already the defensive equal imo, but if Marvin isnt 100%, then he'll certainly get shut down. Or will Samuel be assigned to Reggie Wayne in this one? Wayne normally lines up on the left, which is Ellis Hobbs' usual domain at RCB. Id like to see a switch, but Im pretty sure Hobbs will stick with the Wayne assignment for the most part. Clark is still the most interesting cover. Im looking forward to seeing Bill's plan to account for him because Clark is absolutely playing at an All-Pro level. Id mention Pittsburgh a little here, T, but there'll be a time and a place for that. We'll cross that bridge in a few weeks.

Let's clarify this. First of all, I don't think that either Indy or Pittsburgh has equal talent to NE. Further, I don' t think either of them are as well coached, or play as much together as a team, though they are both very good. Subsequently, I am unable to pick either to beat the Pats, and judging from what I'm reading, not too many people do, either (the Colts fans seem more hopeful than confident, though of course if Indy does win they'll claim they knew it all along).What I am suggesting though is that if you study the history of big games in the NFL, you find that the less experienced team more often than not folds under pressure. This is never more true than in the Superbowl, where games that should be decided by 6-10 points based on talent often turn into total wipeouts. I believe this is because the teams that haven't won championships have question marks in the back of their minds, Yes, they are confident going in, but when they find themselves behind or under pressure, that confidence dies quickly and they get flustered. So they don't execute, and the QB will throw picks, and a blowout ensues.There's only three teams currently that I am SURE are above this: NE, Indy, and Pittsburgh. How they match up against each other is a different issue, but they won't lose due to uncertainty. I could also include Green Bay, perhaps, because Farve has been to the wars, is unafraid, and could infuse his team with a steady confidence in a tough situation. But outside of these, how many other QB's are there with championship rings? Kurt Warner, when he's healthy? And that's it. You can't in my opinion, trust any of the other playoff-bound teams not to fold when the pressure's on. And that's the difference between them and the three I have mentioned.

QBs have to get that championship level experience at some point for the 1st time. They all do. Brady didnt just all of a sudden have 3 rings. Manning or Ben didnt just wake up one morning with a ring. They had to overcome that 'awe' to get it done. For the record, neither Manning nor Brady nor Ben were over the top impressive in winning their first Superbowls. They won. None of the 3 perfromances were overwhelming. And 2 of those were MVP performances. So, it does go to show a little how tight of a game they SB can be to a guy aiming at a 1st ring. But that's the Superbowl. In general playoff terms, look at Favre's recent playoff stats. Not overly impressive. The experience can be overrated. Do I think he'll play poorly this year in the playoffs? No. But young guys like Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning all have to get over that 'pressure' hump at some point. Will they win Superbowls? Maybe, maybe not. But obviously many guys will continue to do great things without having ever done it. Not to discount the value of experience. I just think with a couple of noteable exceptions, it can be overrated.

 

[twitch]

In a game like this, no one would really think home field advantage really meant anything. Certainly the betting line is proving that to be true. But does anyone think that having the home field helps the Colts O control the clock more than they would if this game was in Foxboro?

I think the point made that Manning should run a hurry up offence is a good one, as it will help to keep the Pats D off-kilter, situationally taking advantage of keeping the proper personnel off the field on the other side of the ball, and hopefully tiring out the defensive front seven.

Manning's excellence as a field marshal rests on his ability to audible at the line and shift the offensive set to attack vulnerable seams and soft spots in coverage. He has shown his ability to do this on the road as well as at home, but I think that playing such an important game on familiar ground in front of sympathetic fans will help Manning's focus and give him an atmosphere more conducive to calling plays at the line of scrimmage that much more.

I am not saying that having home field advantage will be the deciding factor in this game. But given how the Colts O -- and Manning in particular -- is able to attack opposing Ds, it could be an intangible difference that helps the Colts move the ball consistently, and keep the ball away from Brady.

Nail meet head! Good point noted and this is what makes this game so huge. Because Manning is as you say, a 'field marshal', who's ability on the road in a stadium like Gilette can be hindered in the playoffs. He relies alot on line communications/audibles to execute. He can do that at home. Not so much @ NE in January. Home field advantage is riding in this game, and for that reason, its HUGE.

 

[twitch]

This is officially off the subject of strategy, but I wanted to drop this. Im posting this piece in here that I just read on New England's winning ways because a new start up thread seems unreasonable and will probably get locked. But this is a very interesting and revealing piece about the Patriots' winning ways/running it up, and how truly overblown of an issue its been. Enjoy and comment.

Skeletons in the Closet

Youve gotta love Steve Young's jekyl and hyde football personality. that was nice.

Someone please get this piece to Dwight Freeney before the 4th quarter!!