TE Dynasty Value PPR - 2nd Tier and after (1 Viewer)

[stp-d]

I'm finding it hard to get a grasp on the value of TE's past the top 3 (graham, gronk & Thomas) which deservedly require a kings ransom to trade for.

Generally rookie draft picks provide a good base exchange medium to help determine value so I figured I'd use picks to get others thoughts on value ranges based on Tiers and try to get a handle on some of the disparity. I imagine there will be some varying opinions on who belongs in what tiers, but if possible try to focus on the tier levels themselves rather than the players i put in each tier.

Dynasty PPR, 12 Team League

Tier1 - Multiple 1sts

Jimmy Graham NOS

Rob Gronkowski NEP

Julius Thomas DEN

Tier2 - early to mid 1st

Jordan Cameron CLE

Vernon Davis SFO

Tier 3 - mid 1st to early 2nd

Jason Witten DAL

Kyle Rudolph MIN

Tyler Eifert CIN

Jordan Reed WAS

Zach Ertz PHI

Ladarius Green. SDC

Tier4 - early 2nd to late 2nd

Greg Olsen CAR

Dennis Pitta BAL

Martellus Bennett CHI

Charles Clay MIA

Dwayne Allen IND

Coby Fleener IND

Tier 5 - mid 2nd to early 3rd

Travis Kelce KCC

Jared Cook STL

Jermichael Finley GBP

Jermaine Gresham CIN

Tier 6 - early 3rd to late 3rd

Robert Housler ARI

Joseph Fauria DET

Tim Wright TBB

Gavin Escobar DAL

Vance McDonald SFO

Antonio Gates SDC

Brandon Pettigrew DET

Delanie Walker TEN

Heath Miller PIT

Brent Celek PHI

Tier 7 - 4th Round and later

Owen Daniels HOU

Marcedes Lewis JAC

Zach Miller SEA

Dustin Keller MIA

Brandon Myers NYG

Taylor Thompson TEN

Adrien Robinson NYG

Levine Toilolo ATL

Have at it!

 

[Biabreakable]

I think this is a solid list.

Tier 5 ends at about 21 players. That seems about right for a 12 team league. Everything after tier 5 is waiver wire replacement level.

Tier 4 and 5 are 10 players who could be top 12 TE but are considered less likely to do so short term or as sustainably. They do have that potential however so have some value but not much. 2nd-3rd round draft pick in most drafts is not much. In the 2014 draft I might rather have the pick.

3rd round picks are generally below replacement level value prospect of players. The 2014 draft looks deep enough that there may be more value found there than a typical draft class.

I think Greg Olsen should be in tier 2 and Green in tier 5 imo. Dwayne Allen in tier 3. For the most part I agree with your tiers however. Nice list.

 

[stp-d]

Good points, and you mentioned 1 guy in particular, Green whose value is all over the place. Some see top 10, others see 30's

 

[humpback]

Nitpicky, but I'd move the tier 3 value to mid to late 1st. I don't think you'd be able to get any of those guys with a 2nd round rookie pick in most leagues.

 

[ClownDogs]

Good list. I seem to agree with most of it.

I play in 1.5ppr for TE's and wouldn't be able to touch tier 3 with even a late 1st imo. Olsen, bennett, allen would be at bottom of tier 3 for me.

I would move housler off the list, done with him. lol Wright(if he stays as a TE), Gates and D.Walker would be awesome value if you can get them for a 3rd.

 

[bengalbuck]

Strong list. I think you have Jordan Reed a little too low. He probably belongs above somebody like Vernon Davis. The concussions are scary but he has a lot of upside and is very young.

I think you have Davis way too high personally. Vernon had a decent year overall in 2013, but it was built almost entirely upon TDs (13). He only had 52 catches. With Crabtree back for the full season, Boldin re-signed, Vance McDonald going into year 2 and the 49ers expected to add a WR pretty early in the draft, its hard to count on him for double digit TDs again. (He's 30 years old and has had only 2 seasons with more than 7 TDs.) My money would be on him having something like 55 catches, 800 yards and 7 TDs in 2014, which would cause his value to fall off a cliff.

If I owned VD and somebody was willing to give me top 5 TE value, which you have as early to mid 1st, I would jump all over that. I wouldn't personally even consider giving up a high to mid 1st rounder for him. Probably not even a late 1st unless I was really desperate at TE.

 

[stp-d]

All valid points on Vernon, as you stated desperation may change things, I personally paid a mid 1st value for him in non PPR after Gonzo retired. I don't regret it, but I can definitely see bringing him down another tier

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Is anyone, anywhere, really trading multiple 1sts away for Orange Julius in anything short of a 16-team 2PPR-TE league? If so, I'd jump all over that deal. IMO Thomas is much closer in value to Cameron and Davis than to Graham and Gronk; I'd put him at the top of tier 2 instead of in tier 1.

I almost feel that you have to move Pitta into the Ertz/Eifert/Rudolph tier, if only on startup ADP and trade value (personally, I'd rather have him than Rudolph, but that's probably a minority view). Other than those quibbles I agree with just about everyone.

Only other thing I might note is that you probably need three sets of trade values for each tier: standard, PPR, TE-premium. In a standard league I could see VD going for a 2nd-rounder; in a 1.5- or 2-PPR league I'm not sure you could land him for a top-3 pick. That's too wide a variation to explain away with just a "trade range".

 

[B. Nugget]

I'm sure many here wouldn't like this trade, especially at the time I made it, but to give an example of value as it relates to a couple of these guys, I traded:

Julius Thomas

for

Jordan Reed

Maclin

I was happy with the trade at the time and I'm even more happy with it now that DJAX got the boot. To me, Julius Thomas is JAG, he is athletic and creates mismatches, but I don't truly think he is elite without Peyton and for the future, so I decided to address a glaring weakness on my team at WR depth. Just about every Dynasty rankings I've seen has Reed as a top 5-7 TE and that is after seeing him play in 9 games...I think the sky is the limit if he can stay healthy and I actually thinking DJAX is going to help open things up for him in the middle of the field.

If it flops, so be it, but I felt like I traded a top 5 TE for a top 5ish TE and a guy with top 10-15 WR upside who was being heavily discounted because he got hurt before his team went to a video game offense.

So as it relates to the value of Thomas...I think that is equal to multiple 1sts for Maclin and Reed

 

[stp-d]

Thanks for the info, Seems about right, I don't see too many Julius owners trading him away for a single first, unless it's 1.01...

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I'm sure many here wouldn't like this trade, especially at the time I made it, but to give an example of value as it relates to a couple of these guys, I traded:

Julius Thomas

for

Jordan Reed

Maclin

I was happy with the trade at the time and I'm even more happy with it now that DJAX got the boot. To me, Julius Thomas is JAG, he is athletic and creates mismatches, but I don't truly think he is elite without Peyton and for the future, so I decided to address a glaring weakness on my team at WR depth. Just about every Dynasty rankings I've seen has Reed as a top 5-7 TE and that is after seeing him play in 9 games...I think the sky is the limit if he can stay healthy and I actually thinking DJAX is going to help open things up for him in the middle of the field.

If it flops, so be it, but I felt like I traded a top 5 TE for a top 5ish TE and a guy with top 10-15 WR upside who was being heavily discounted because he got hurt before his team went to a video game offense.

So as it relates to the value of Thomas...I think that is equal to multiple 1sts for Maclin and Reed

Sounds fair to me and I probably should clarify. When I say "multiple firsts" I'm thinking 1.01 plus another 1st, i.e. the 1.01 itself wouldn't get it done. Otherwise "multiple firsts" as a concept kind of loses its meaning.

I wouldn't give away the 1.01 for either Maclin or Reed, so in that sense we're both right.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Where is Garrett Graham? He's the starter in Houston and will likely be playing with a young QB. He should be somewhere on this list....top 10-20 range.

 

[BWill]

Bump Dennis Pitta. With Steve Smith and Torrey Smith at WR I see that opening up the short- mid range pass game A LOT, and not to mention Dennis Pitta is Flaccos best friend, so the chemistry is 100% there. Can't wait to see Pitta prove he is being undervalued heading into this year. Yes I am an owner, but I bought him because I really feel he will breakout with the signing of Steve Smith, already having Torrey

 

[bengalbuck]

Bump Dennis Pitta. With Steve Smith and Torrey Smith at WR I see that opening up the short- mid range pass game A LOT, and not to mention Dennis Pitta is Flaccos best friend, so the chemistry is 100% there. Can't wait to see Pitta prove he is being undervalued heading into this year. Yes I am an owner, but I bought him because I really feel he will breakout with the signing of Steve Smith, already having Torrey

I like him but the Owen Daniels signing doesn't help his value any. He is already familiar with Kubiak's offense and has a lot of similarities to Pitta. Figure Baltimore also adds a WR in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft too.

They are going to run the ball a ton and there are going to be a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game.

I think Pitta was primed to have a huge year last year, but I'm a little worried that the time has passed and now there won't be enough targets for him to be anything more than TE7 or so.

 

[bengalbuck]

Thanks for the info, Seems about right, I don't see too many Julius owners trading him away for a single first, unless it's 1.01...

He's definitely still a notch or 2 below the top guys and (maybe along with Cameron) kind of on his own in tier 2. I traded Julius and the 1.09 for Gronk in a TE Premium league recently. Felt that was decent value, but also displays how big the gap is between the top 2 and everybody else.

 

[Go Blue]

Where is Garrett Graham? He's the starter in Houston and will likely be playing with a young QB. He should be somewhere on this list....top 10-20 range.

First off, great list stp. I only have Jimmy Graham in my own first tier, but I can see why you could include both Gronk and Julius Thomas. An owner has to be concerned about Gronk staying on the field. How many years does Peyton play at this level? 1-2, not many, that's for sure. Where does that leave Thomas? Not in my first tier anyway. I could put guys in this tier or that tier, but this is a pretty good starting point.

As for Carl Eller's comment. The answer for me is Ryan Griffin. I'm not a fan of Garrett Graham long term as anything more than a bye week filler. I think Griffin is going to surprise a lot of people and become the one to own in Houston.

 

[cstu]

Strong list. I think you have Jordan Reed a little too low. He probably belongs above somebody like Vernon Davis. The concussions are scary but he has a lot of upside and is very young.

I'm a little concerned about his production with the addition of Jackson. He's a big upgrade over the Redskins #2 WR the past two years and Griffin hasn't thrown a lot of TD's so far.

 

[cstu]

Tier 3 - mid 1st to early 2nd

Jason Witten DAL

Kyle Rudolph MIN

Tyler Eifert CIN

Jordan Reed WAS

Zach Ertz PHI

Ladarius Green. SDC

Tier4 - early 2nd to late 2nd

Greg Olsen CAR

Witten and Olsen are a lot closer than people think. Their production should be very similar this year and Olsen is 3 years younger. Olsen has no competition for targets and should top his career high of 111 last year.

 

[dickey moe]

Is Julius Thomas actually going for multiple 1sts?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Is Julius Thomas actually going for multiple 1sts?

mayb the last 2 pick?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Strong list. I think you have Jordan Reed a little too low. He probably belongs above somebody like Vernon Davis. The concussions are scary but he has a lot of upside and is very young.

I'm a little concerned about his production with the addition of Jackson. He's a big upgrade over the Redskins #2 WR the past two years and Griffin hasn't thrown a lot of TD's so far.

the problem with Reed is hes one hit away from losing all his value, if he gets concussed one more time people are going to sore on him bigtime. The hit that took him out of last season didn't even look that bad which is too much of a scare for me.

 

[FUBAR]

Bump Dennis Pitta. With Steve Smith and Torrey Smith at WR I see that opening up the short- mid range pass game A LOT, and not to mention Dennis Pitta is Flaccos best friend, so the chemistry is 100% there. Can't wait to see Pitta prove he is being undervalued heading into this year. Yes I am an owner, but I bought him because I really feel he will breakout with the signing of Steve Smith, already having Torrey

I like him but the Owen Daniels signing doesn't help his value any. He is already familiar with Kubiak's offense and has a lot of similarities to Pitta. Figure Baltimore also adds a WR in the first 2 or 3 rounds of the draft too.

They are going to run the ball a ton and there are going to be a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game.

I think Pitta was primed to have a huge year last year, but I'm a little worried that the time has passed and now there won't be enough targets for him to be anything more than TE7 or so.

Daniels will put a dent into Pitta's value for 2014 at least. I have him in my main league and would trade him for Olsen, Clay or Allen, but not Bennett or Fleener but they're all very close IMO.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction Pitta went for slightly more than Olsen (who I took) and Witten but were close enough in price to consider them all the same tier. Timing makes a difference in auctions as early bid usually are overvalued, but these all went close enough to compare. It's a salary cap league with contracts, so the older guys are probably valued higher than they would be in most dynasty leagues. But this does show current value pretty well IMO.

Tier1 - Multiple 1sts

Jimmy Graham NOS - $22.3

Rob Gronkowski NEP - $16.6

Julius Thomas DEN - $13.1

Tier2 - early to mid 1st

Jordan Cameron CLE - $14.9

Vernon Davis SFO - $10.3

Tier 3 - mid 1st to early 2nd

Jason Witten DAL - $8.8

Kyle Rudolph MIN - $12.2

Tyler Eifert CIN - $10.1

Jordan Reed WAS - $9.1

Zach Ertz PHI - $9.9

Ladarius Green. SDC - $10.9

Tier4 - early 2nd to late 2nd

Greg Olsen CAR - $9.2

Dennis Pitta BAL - $9.3

Martellus Bennett CHI - $6.5

Charles Clay MIA - $7.5

Dwayne Allen IND - $6.9

Coby Fleener IND - $6.6

I'd ad Ryan Griffin in the same tier as Delanie Walker. Toililo probably should go to that tier as well, at least until the Falcons draft a TE.