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TE Jimmy Graham, CHI

SproutDaddy said:
Meh.   That's debatable.  He's put up better numbers because of Brees and Payton.  He's not a very good football player.  He's one dimensional.
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Finley didn't benefit from Rodgers? If you give Jimmy an asterisk for playing with Brees then the same should apply for Finley.

 
Da Guru said:
I think Graham is going to be huge in GB.   Wilsons big plays are all after everything breaks down and he is running around...good for WRs..not so good for Graham.  With Rodgers and the GB passing attack welcome back to the Saint days.
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This is fiction. Nearly all of Wilson's TDs were from the pocket. His big plays from scrambling were memorable, but far more rare than most perceive. 

Glad to see Graham leaving Seattle. Lost count of his horrible drops and whiffed blocks. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
But Rodgers is not a TE's best friend.

We've all been getting hyped up for some new GB TE every year for what seems like forever.  It's true Graham is probably the best of them (although he's certainly not the same Jimmy Graham he was 3 years ago), but it seems like they've been getting progressively more talented players in there while getting progressively worse results.

Most of the recent GB TEs have been better outside of GB than they were in GB, yet we still treat this as a situation where we expect them to be better in GB than they were elsewhere.

I think Graham will be solid, but I'm not expecting much more out of him than he was delivering in Seattle, which probably makes him a sell for me.
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Jared Cook averaged:

36/466/2.2 per 16 games with Tennessee over 59 games
47/595/2.7 per 16 games with St. Louis over 48 games
59/746/3.7 per 16 games with Green Bay over 13 games (including playoffs)
54/688/2.0 per 16 games with Oakland over 16 games

So Cook put up the biggest numbers with the Packers.

Martellus Bennett played 5 games with Aaron Rodgers, so not much to go by there. His yardage numbers over those 5 games were slightly below what he has done elsewhere, and he didn't score any TDs.

 
ZWK said:
Jared Cook averaged:

36/466/2.2 per 16 games with Tennessee over 59 games
47/595/2.7 per 16 games with St. Louis over 48 games
59/746/3.7 per 16 games with Green Bay over 13 games (including playoffs)
54/688/2.0 per 16 games with Oakland over 16 games

So Cook put up the biggest numbers with the Packers.

Martellus Bennett played 5 games with Aaron Rodgers, so not much to go by there. His yardage numbers over those 5 games were slightly below what he has done elsewhere, and he didn't score any TDs.
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Cook went for 30-377-1 in 10 games which is 48-603-1.6 over 16 games, which would have been his 5th best fantasy season out of 9 years played (with the first 2 as a backup). 

Regardless, "bump Finley"  is a funny meme but much like 'it's a :ploy to motivate ta-tum bell " it's actually relevant to remember. The perceived value of GB's starting TE has exceeded their actual value in nearly every year of Rodgers' entire career. I've played that game enough that I'm OK missing out on the 11th try if that GB TE magic finally does actually happen. 

 
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Phenomena said:
What has Graham done to warrant #1 tight end money? The dude doesn't even block. He's 30 and has lost his explosiveness up the seam.  Adams is already a great goal-line threat.

Packers fan here and super disappointed by this signing.  Going to be another huge waste of money on the tight-end spot.
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He was TE 6 last year in PPR and scored 10 TD's for an offense where he was an afterthought and not used very much at all. I think the stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

With Jordy gone there are a lot of targets, yards, and TD's up for grabs. I think Graham is in for a pretty good year.

 
kutta said:
He was TE 6 last year in PPR and scored 10 TD's for an offense where he was an afterthought and not used very much at all. I think the stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

With Jordy gone there are a lot of targets, yards, and TD's up for grabs. I think Graham is in for a pretty good year.
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Graham's 96 targets last year as an "afterthought" were more than Rodgers has ever thrown to a TE in a season.  Even the year where James Jones was GB's leading WR with only 104 targets.

 
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kutta said:
He was TE 6 last year in PPR and scored 10 TD's for an offense where he was an afterthought and not used very much at all. I think the stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

With Jordy gone there are a lot of targets, yards, and TD's up for grabs. I think Graham is in for a pretty good year.
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As an owner I wish you were right. He just doesn't look the same running. Almost tentative at times. 

 
Milkman said:
As an owner I wish you were right. He just doesn't look the same running. Almost tentative at times. 
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I think its pretty obvious he has lost a step watching the games, plus he is constantly dinged up while playing which I'm sure factors into that, I don't expect that to suddenly change.   I'm hopeful someone in my league thinks he still has it so I can get some decent value from him at the end of the line here. 

 
kutta said:
He was TE 6 last year in PPR and scored 10 TD's for an offense where he was an afterthought and not used very much at all. I think the stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

With Jordy gone there are a lot of targets, yards, and TD's up for grabs. I think Graham is in for a pretty good year.
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Why do we want a guy who played so poorly he was an afterthought and not used much? And clearly was not worth $10M/year because HE WAS CUT FROM HIS TEAM FOR THAT SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY.

I'm fine coming back to this thread and admitting I was wrong but right now I'm predicting this is going to be a bad deal for the Packers. Maybe he's serviceable in a 800/8 role but you don't give #1 TE money to that kind of pedestrian production when he can't even block a safety.

 
Phenomena said:
Why do we want a guy who played so poorly he was an afterthought and not used much? And clearly was not worth $10M/year because HE WAS CUT FROM HIS TEAM FOR THAT SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY.

I'm fine coming back to this thread and admitting I was wrong but right now I'm predicting this is going to be a bad deal for the Packers. Maybe he's serviceable in a 800/8 role but you don't give #1 TE money to that kind of pedestrian production when he can't even block a safety.
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So you'd be fine with Graham doing exactly what pretty much the consensus top 3 TE Ertz did last year? He went for exactly 800 and 8. That isn't close to "pedestrian" for a TE.

FYI, the fourth TE last year, Walker, went for 800 and 3, and the fifth, Engram, went for 700 and 6.

 
kutta said:
It’s not a secret he was underutilized last year in Seattle. He had 9 games where he has 3 receptions or less, and 4 games where he had one or zero receptions. Sure, he caught TD’s, but he could have been used a whole lot more.
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When you are averaging 9.1 a catch as a 31 year old TE, you get way less targets then you used to.

 
kutta said:
So you'd be fine with Graham doing exactly what pretty much the consensus top 3 TE Ertz did last year? He went for exactly 800 and 8. That isn't close to "pedestrian" for a TE.

FYI, the fourth TE last year, Walker, went for 800 and 3, and the fifth, Engram, went for 700 and 6.
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ERTZ KNOWS HOW TO BLOCK.

WALKER BLOCKS.

ENGRAM. BLOCKS.

Graham gets smashed when he tries to block anything. 

 
Phenomena said:
ERTZ KNOWS HOW TO BLOCK.

WALKER BLOCKS.

ENGRAM. BLOCKS.

Graham gets smashed when he tries to block anything. 
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I'm not defending Graham, I think he was a bad signing, and think the narrative that Nelson is washed up, but Graham somehow isn't, and opens up the offense is silly.

That said, if you are rating the blocking ability of these guys, its Walker>>Graham>>>>Engram>Ertz. While he's lost at least 2-3 steps, Graham has become a passable blocker in my opinion.

 
kutta said:
It’s not a secret he was underutilized last year in Seattle. He had 9 games where he has 3 receptions or less, and 4 games where he had one or zero receptions. Sure, he caught TD’s, but he could have been used a whole lot more.
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One could argue he was used less, because Seattle felt Baldwin, Richardson and Lockett were all better options in the passing game, and statistically they wouldn't have been wrong to think so.

 
travdogg said:
One could argue he was used less, because Seattle felt Baldwin, Richardson and Lockett were all better options in the passing game, and statistically they wouldn't have been wrong to think so.
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Yes, one could.

I’m not saying Graham is still a stud. But I think it’s wrong to dismiss him in GB. Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good QB and as long is Graham is still pretty good, this could be a damn good match.

 
kutta said:
It’s not a secret he was underutilized last year in Seattle. He had 9 games where he has 3 receptions or less, and 4 games where he had one or zero receptions. Sure, he caught TD’s, but he could have been used a whole lot more.
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How many drops did he have in those games?

 
kutta said:
It’s not a secret he was underutilized last year in Seattle. He had 9 games where he has 3 receptions or less, and 4 games where he had one or zero receptions. Sure, he caught TD’s, but he could have been used a whole lot more.
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Graham got 18.1% of the team targets, which was #10 among TEs last season. He got 36.6% of the red zone targets, which was #1 among TEs last season.

That despite the fact that he had 11 drops, which was #2 among TEs and only averaged 1.23 yards of separation per target, which was #29 among TEs.

I don't see this as underutilized or "an afterthought." YMMV

(All data from here.)

 
Just Win Baby said:
Graham got 18.1% of the team targets, which was #10 among TEs last season. He got 36.6% of the red zone targets, which was #1 among TEs last season.

That despite the fact that he had 11 drops, which was #2 among TEs and only averaged 1.23 yards of separation per target, which was #29 among TEs.

I don't see this as underutilized or "an afterthought." YMMV

(All data from here.)
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OK. Maybe I should have said "for a large part of the year he was an after thought." Yes, there were games where they threw him the ball. But there were a lot of games, especially at the end of the season, where he wasn't involved at all.

His first two games he had 3 and 1 receptions. His last six games he had 3, 3, 0, 1, ,1, and 3 receptions. So his usage was bizzare.

For a 9 game stretch (weeks 3-12) he was the number 1 FF TE. For the other 7 games he was the number 20 TE. Now I know we can always cherry pick and throw games out, yada yada yada. But the reason this is weird is because that was a nine game stretch all in a row where his usage was good and he performed. In the first few games they didn't use him, and in the last 5 or 6 they didn't use him. But in the middle of the year, he was awesome.

My point is that if they would have used him the entire year like they did during that 9 game stretch, he would have probably remained the number 1 TE and people wouldn't be talking about him slowing down and losing it. But since they had this strange usage where, yes, for almost half the year he was an after thought, people are writing him off.

 
kutta said:
It’s not a secret he was underutilized last year in Seattle. He had 9 games where he has 3 receptions or less, and 4 games where he had one or zero receptions. Sure, he caught TD’s, but he could have been used a whole lot more.
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He had 96 targets, 5th among TE's.  Gronk, Ertz, Walker, and Engram ahead of him.  This doesn't seem like underutilization.

 
I saw an awful lot of Wilson holding onto the ball and going for the homerun shot instead of checking it down or looking for underneath receivers, like RBs and TEs. I saw Graham wide open underneath so many times and Wilson would launch some bomb. I don't know how much of that is just my perception but it's a factor. Rodgers makes better decisions than Wilson, IMO.

Also, it seemed to me like the Seattle offense only ran vanilla TE routes, like sticks, hitches and short outs. Which lend themselves to small YPC numbers. 

People are saying he has lost a step or two so I suppose I should pay attention to that. I hadn't noticed. My perception is that he is lazy and got tired of playing in that offense. This does not help his cause of course, if true. But maybe GB will be a better scene. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I saw an awful lot of Wilson holding onto the ball and going for the homerun shot instead of checking it down or looking for underneath receivers, like RBs and TEs. I saw Graham wide open underneath so many times and Wilson would launch some bomb. I don't know how much of that is just my perception but it's a factor. Rodgers makes better decisions than Wilson, IMO.

Also, it seemed to me like the Seattle offense only ran vanilla TE routes, like sticks, hitches and short outs. Which lend themselves to small YPC numbers. 

People are saying he has lost a step or two so I suppose I should pay attention to that. I hadn't noticed. My perception is that he is lazy and got tired of playing in that offense. This does not help his cause of course, if true. But maybe GB will be a better scene. 
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I believe you are spot-on on Seahawks' offense.  RW was practically operating sandbox with their offense and their rushing didn't strike fear on their defensive opponent.  Packers offense especially their QB is far better than Seahawks with Rodgers' superior decision-making process and precision passing.  He'll make every defensive opponent pay if allowing Graham open in the intermediate area.  Keep in mind that that is the area Mike McCarthy had pining for years to free up his rushing lane and receiving area outside the hash marks. 

Disclaimer: I do have a vested interest in Graham in my dynasty league, however, I dont anticipate him to produce like he had accomplished with Brees.  I think he'll be much better with Rodgers than RW... probably between 70%-80% of what he had done with Brees. 

 
Aznflyer14 said:
RW was practically operating sandbox with their offense
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This is such a weak narrative. Why do people keep saying it? It was rarely true. Yes, at times it got crazy and he ran around, but that's the extreme outlier, not the norm. Wilson delivered the ball from the pocket way more often than you are willing to admit. Sandbox? 

 
Hooper31 said:
This is such a weak narrative. Why do people keep saying it? It was rarely true. Yes, at times it got crazy and he ran around, but that's the extreme outlier, not the norm. Wilson delivered the ball from the pocket way more often than you are willing to admit. Sandbox? 
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Perhaps I made a poor word of choice on using "sandbox"  when describing Seahawks' offensive scheme that RW had operated for last several years. 

FYI, Seahawks games were always on in my local channel and Wilson always operated on every inch of the field to get a better passing lane.  Seahawks' crappy OL did him no such favor, buying him necessary time for full read progression.  I recalled an except from this link last year prior to 2017 season, illustrating Seahawks' OC Bevell's offensive scheme. 

"When Wilson drops the called play and starts running around, his receivers have to adapt to what is essentially a post-snap audible—they need to run different routes based on Wilson's direction. Doug Baldwin became one of the best deep receivers in the NFL in part because he's so adept at switching his routes to match Wilson."

Throughout 2017 season, Seahawks' OL gotten so bad that it was sheer athletic achievement to see Wilson especially after shouldering 90% of offense (hell, he was their leading rusher).    Baldwin consistently kept creating separation only fail to get attention from Wilson and had to stay scrambled to specified routes to stay open. 

 
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Packers News' Aaron Nagler expects Jimmy Graham to get a majority of his snaps on the outside this season.

Graham spent some time split wide in Seattle and could do more of it in Green Bay. With Marcedes Lewis and Lance Kendricks behind him, he isn't going to be asked to do much in-line blocking. Graham wasn't great outside of the red-zone last year, but he has a higher yardage ceiling in an Aaron Rodgers offense.

Source: USA Today

Jul 20 - 5:27 PM
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I love the idea of him having a big year but this guy was the man when I was in high school. That was almost 10 years ago. Aaron Rodgers too. I never feel like reaching early for a Tight End has ever worked out for me. Give me Delanie Walker.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I love the idea of him having a big year but this guy was the man when I was in high school. That was almost 10 years ago. Aaron Rodgers too. I never feel like reaching early for a Tight End has ever worked out for me. Give me Delanie Walker.
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You mean the Delanie Walker that's two years older than Graham?

 
Packers Camp Insider: Jimmy Graham gives glimpse of TD potential

Excerpt:

Jimmy Graham has made plays in seemingly every practice since arriving in Green Bay, but his best catch in a Packers uniform might have come Monday. With safety Marwin Evans covering him in a red-zone drill, Graham reached back with his left arm to catch a one-handed, back-shoulder throw for a touchdown while staying in bounds. The play — a staple throw in quarterback Aaron Rodgers’expansive arsenal — signified another step in Graham’s growing chemistry with his new quarterback. “We needed something like that,” Rodgers said, “because we’ve been talking a lot about how he wants those types of fade balls thrown. And we’ve talked about a number of different ways we can do that. It was nice to be on the same page.” Graham and Rodgers have yet to connect in a game, but plays like Monday’s red-zone touchdown show a glimpse of how much trouble they might be for opposing defenses. With Rodgers’ pinpoint accuracy and Graham’s combination of size and freakish athletic ability, the touchdown was practically indefensible. If this training camp is any indication, the duo could be one of the top connections in the NFL this season. “He was expecting a ball in that area,” Rodgers said, “and then the athleticism, I have absolutely nothing to do with that. I’m just trying to put it in an area for him. It’s pretty impressive to watch. You guys have been here a long time, as have I. It’s hard to remember, you know, the consistency and the athleticism from a guy that size. We haven’t had that in a while.”
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Jimmy Graham caught an eight-yard touchdown in Thursday's preseason game against the Steelers.

Matched up against first-rounder Terrell Edmunds in the end zone, Graham reaved his soul before skying for a jump-ball score. Graham scored 10 touchdowns for the Seahawks last season but watched his yards per catch plummet from 14.2 to 9.1 as he posted his lowest-yardage total (520) since his rookie season. That latter number is going to have to come up if Graham is to live up to his ADP.

Aug 16 - 10:58 PM
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with Jordy gone hes gonna get multiple rezone looks every game.  almost a lock for double digit tds and you know hes gonna have those games where he scores multiple times.  could do way worse with a mid round pick

 
Milkman said:
Idk......I just don't see the yards....15-16 TD ceiling though........so he's easily a TE1. 
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Looks like he’ll be the second receiving option begin Adams. I don’t know how much Cobb has left in the tank either. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 120-140 Targets this year if he plays all 16

 
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