Reported by whom?
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TE Rob Gronkowski (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter bicycle_seat_sniffer
- Start date
Noone is interested in seeing anyone elses roster. People are interested in showing them.
To be clear this article reports that "Gronkowski isn't expected to be ready for the season-opener Sept. 8 against the Buffalo Bills"
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
that article is from 8:30 am today, before he hit the field and practiced.
Got a funny feeling hes playing, and playing soon
NFL coaches don't approach the games like. oh it buffalo and nyjets, auto-wins. Its the NFL every game is important and could be the difference in HFA in the playoffs
This one is from 7:19PM Sept 1:
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9624968/rob-gronkowski-full-pads-new-england-patriots-practice
"While it is not considered a realistic expectation for Gronkowski to be ready for the regular-season opener Sept. 8 on the road against the Buffalo Bills, or the home opener against the Jets the following Thursday, his presence on the practice field Sunday reflects that he continues to make progress in his rehabilitation, and might be ready to transition from a rehab-specific focus to more football-specific drills."
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
As a Gronk owner I am hoping he sits for a couple weeks. I don't need a gimpy, 70% Gronkowski out there taking away snaps from Sudfeld.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5729/rob-gronkowski
ESPN Boston considers Weeks 3-7 the "sweet spot" for Rob Gronkowski (back) to return to game action.
Gronk won't be ready by next Sunday's opener, and the Patriots have a quick Week 2 turnaround with a Thursday nighter against the Jets on September 12. Week 3 (September 22) against the Buccaneers is shaping up as Gronkowski's best-case scenario, and perhaps likeliest assuming his progress continues setback-free. Gronk has begun practicing in limited drills in full pads. Sep 1 - 9:34 PM
ESPN Boston considers Weeks 3-7 the "sweet spot" for Rob Gronkowski (back) to return to game action.
Gronk won't be ready by next Sunday's opener, and the Patriots have a quick Week 2 turnaround with a Thursday nighter against the Jets on September 12. Week 3 (September 22) against the Buccaneers is shaping up as Gronkowski's best-case scenario, and perhaps likeliest assuming his progress continues setback-free. Gronk has begun practicing in limited drills in full pads. Sep 1 - 9:34 PM
I disagree here. If he comes back week 7ish and puts up typical type Gronk numbers he could play a huge factor in winning a title. There are plenty of TE2s to cover for a few weeks, but a healthy Gronk provides such an advantage it's worth the risk IMO.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Didn't set out to pick him but I did. I took over for a team that did not have decent keeper options so I had to keep Brandon Marshall. Had the 1.01 with the likes of McCoy, Spiller available. Here it is:
1.01 - Calvin Johnson
2.12 - Victor Cruz
3.01 - Frank Gore
4.12 - Steve Johnson
5.01 - Rob Geonkowski (really 6.01)
6.12 - Montee Ball
7.01 - Chris Ivory
8.12 - Ben Tate
9.01 - Ronnie Hillman
10.12 - Michael Vick
11.01 - Zach Sudfeld
12.12 - Cincinnati Def
13.01 - Green Bay Def
14.12 - Garrett Hartley
15.01 - Julius Thomas
16.12 - Josh Freeman
1.01 - Calvin Johnson
2.12 - Victor Cruz
3.01 - Frank Gore
4.12 - Steve Johnson
5.01 - Rob Geonkowski (really 6.01)
6.12 - Montee Ball
7.01 - Chris Ivory
8.12 - Ben Tate
9.01 - Ronnie Hillman
10.12 - Michael Vick
11.01 - Zach Sudfeld
12.12 - Cincinnati Def
13.01 - Green Bay Def
14.12 - Garrett Hartley
15.01 - Julius Thomas
16.12 - Josh Freeman
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Then stay out of this thread if it bothers you so much.I think seeing what a team that drafts Gronk looks like definitely shows what you can expect to sacrifice for the risk you'd be buying into.
Say he busts. I'd rather get an idea beforehand what the rest of such a team can be expected. All drafts will be unique, but it at least is an indicator of his current perceived value and the resulting impact on one's overall roster.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
If they thought week 7 he would be on pup. It's week 2 or 3.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Go do a mock if you want to see what your team may look like. I don't understand how looking at some stranger's roster in a league which may differ in size, scoring and lineup will help you.
That would NOT be a complete waste of a pick.
It may not be the ROI you hoped for if you took him early, but it seems like most people drafted him fully understanding he might miss 6+ games.
Mocks are great...except that a lot of people draft differently in mocks than they would for real. People just throw #### at the wall to see what sticks, they leave after the first handful of rounds, they troll with stupid senseless picks, they draft WR/WR/WR just to see what would happen (as if they couldn't tell) and then leave when they realize it sucks...and that's assuming you find a mock with the same scoring system, same roster requirements, and same types of players as your real league.
This is why people look at ADP from actual drafts, and not from mocks.
Mocks just don't truly replace the real thing.
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massraider
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
Where are you getting week 7 from? They would have put him on the PUP and added another player to the active roster if that was the case (and perhaps not cut Fells or Ballard)
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I kinda wouldnt expect to use him till closer to week 7. I mean, he may come back and play in week 3 or 4............but are you going to have him in your lineup right away? I generally don't like to play guys coming off a long injury layoff for a week or 2. In his case, I might just wait till he has a good game before using him.
So yeah, he will definitely play before week 7, but will be in all lineups by week 4 or so??
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bleachercreacher
Footballguy
If Gronk is playing, I'm playing him, and I wouldn't really think twice about it. Even if he isn't 100% he has a better shot of any other TE of catching a TD. If you're waiting until week 7 you wasted a draft pick. People took the same stance on Peterson last year, and if I remember correctly, he had a heck of a game. I agree, wait a couple of weeks on a lesser talent, but we're talking about a stud on an offense that will have plenty of opportunities.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
If you league has playoffs.............then waiting till week 7 is NOT a waste of a pick. If you do make the playoffs (assuming you get him much later than if he were healthy now), you have yourself a nice advantage.
And chances are if you team is championship material, you would be able to sneak into the playoffs without Gronk till week 7 and only getting about 6-7 regular season (fantasy regular season) games out of him
bleachercreacher
Footballguy
I see what your saying, but if he's on the field, who are you starting over him? Personally it's only Jimmy Graham, and then there are very few players I would start over him at the flex. Maybe I just take more risk than you, but I still think it's a waste of a draft pick to not have him in your lineup if he's on the field.
pghrob
Footballguy
I drafted him on 9/1 at 1pm ET at 5.06 after the news of his practicing. Thinking more like week 3 return which was worth gamble there.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Rob Gronkowski (back) participated in some 11-on-11 work Monday.
A day after practicing in full pads, Gronkowski was back out on the field. He participated in 11-on-11 work, lining up with Zach Sudfeld in two-tight end formations. It's yet another sign of tangible progress as Gronk's rehab picks up. The Boston Herald has heard "whispers" that he could play as soon as Week 2, a Thursday night home opener against the Jets. We suspect a Week 3 or 4 debut is more likely.
Source: Boston Herald
Sep 2 - 10:47 AM
A day after practicing in full pads, Gronkowski was back out on the field. He participated in 11-on-11 work, lining up with Zach Sudfeld in two-tight end formations. It's yet another sign of tangible progress as Gronk's rehab picks up. The Boston Herald has heard "whispers" that he could play as soon as Week 2, a Thursday night home opener against the Jets. We suspect a Week 3 or 4 debut is more likely.
Source: Boston Herald
Sep 2 - 10:47 AM
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
And what part of that blurb do you consider a conclusive report that he won't play? Where is the actual information? Because all I see is speculation.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Any chance BB just sacrificed the roster spot to mess with the opponents gameplanning and preparation?
He is a sneaky dude, & maybe in his opinion it's worth a roster spot for defensive cord to have to worry about Gronk even if he won't be playing.
He is a sneaky dude, & maybe in his opinion it's worth a roster spot for defensive cord to have to worry about Gronk even if he won't be playing.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I think he just likes messing with me by keeping a "D" next to Gronk's name instead of an "O" so I can't put him in my IR slot.
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Purple_King
Footballguy
Ha, I have the same problem with Le'veon Bell. Obviously, he's not playing week one so why can't they just put an O for him so I can stash him on IR....
Bayhawks,Bayhawks said:
Youre not serious, right? Somebody else posted "He'll be playing week 1"; that's the claim that requires validation and the reason for the entire quote trail above. Maybe you didnt pick up on that? No one in the quote trail above claimed to definitively know that he isnt going to play...
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I own Gronk in both of my leagues - one league I split with my bro and we own him there. Oh yea, my bro also owns him in his league... WE ARE ALL IN ON GRONK!
Honestly, you wouldn't put what I'm saying past BB? Sneakiest coach in the NFL & now that I'm so vested, I'm a little worried.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
.
First time GRONK owner this year. Glad to be on the train.
First time GRONK owner this year. Glad to be on the train.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22986297- Apologies if this has been discussed within the 16 pages of this thread. But when I researched the procedure Gronk had, this information came up.
AbstractBACKGROUND:It has been shown a microscopic lumbar diskectomy (MLD) is effective in getting professional athletes back to their sport after a herniated nucleus pulposus (HNP). There is a need for more information on the time it takes professional athletes to return after surgery.
PURPOSE:To determine average time for return to play and success in returning to play for professional athletes undergoing MLD.
STUDY DESIGN:Case series; Level of evidence, 4.
METHODS:Between 1996 and 2010, the senior authors treated 171 professional athletes for lumbar HNP. A retrospective review was performed using patient charts, operative reports, team medical records, and internet search. Eighty-five patients were treated with MLD, and 86 patients were treated nonoperatively. This study focused on the return to play of the operatively treated patients. Primary outcome measures were return rate and average return time, considering only patients whose sport is in season at specific postoperative time points.
RESULTS:Of surgically treated patients, 89.3% returned to sport. The average time it took operative patients to return to their sport (return time) was 5.8 months. Progressive return data for surgically treated patients showed the percentage of athletes who returned increased from 50% at 3 months to 72% at 6 months to 77% at 9 months and 84% at 12 months.
CONCLUSION:The chance a player returns to play after MLD is 50% at 3 months, 72% at 6 months, 77% at 9 months, and 84% at 12 months. The overall chance of returning to play at any point is 89%.
My Question:
How confident is anyone that the Gronk we see in 2013 is the one we've seen before? It would seem like he's at the top end of the timeline for recovery but as with any back injury, the process of building core strength is an ongoing one. If he comes back this month, while he might be 100% structurally and healed so to speak, is he 100% of the player he has been?
AbstractBACKGROUND:It has been shown a microscopic lumbar diskectomy (MLD) is effective in getting professional athletes back to their sport after a herniated nucleus pulposus (HNP). There is a need for more information on the time it takes professional athletes to return after surgery.
PURPOSE:To determine average time for return to play and success in returning to play for professional athletes undergoing MLD.
STUDY DESIGN:Case series; Level of evidence, 4.
METHODS:Between 1996 and 2010, the senior authors treated 171 professional athletes for lumbar HNP. A retrospective review was performed using patient charts, operative reports, team medical records, and internet search. Eighty-five patients were treated with MLD, and 86 patients were treated nonoperatively. This study focused on the return to play of the operatively treated patients. Primary outcome measures were return rate and average return time, considering only patients whose sport is in season at specific postoperative time points.
RESULTS:Of surgically treated patients, 89.3% returned to sport. The average time it took operative patients to return to their sport (return time) was 5.8 months. Progressive return data for surgically treated patients showed the percentage of athletes who returned increased from 50% at 3 months to 72% at 6 months to 77% at 9 months and 84% at 12 months.
CONCLUSION:The chance a player returns to play after MLD is 50% at 3 months, 72% at 6 months, 77% at 9 months, and 84% at 12 months. The overall chance of returning to play at any point is 89%.
My Question:
How confident is anyone that the Gronk we see in 2013 is the one we've seen before? It would seem like he's at the top end of the timeline for recovery but as with any back injury, the process of building core strength is an ongoing one. If he comes back this month, while he might be 100% structurally and healed so to speak, is he 100% of the player he has been?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have been the main person arguing this exact thing across the entirety of this thread. The best I can offer for anyone on either side is each case is different and outcomes will vary from person to person.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
It's a good question, and nobody knows. And I'm coming at this from a dynasty perspective, where 80% of Gronk is likely going to be better than my other options. Which isn't true in redraft.
Having said that, Gronk has several things going for him:
--his surgery was in 2013 and the date range of surgeries in the study was from 1996 to 2010
--he's 24 years old, and it's almost certain that some of the players in the study were near the end of their careers
--he had the surgery before the issue was bad enough to prevent him from playing
--he's had the surgery previously and obviously returned to 100% -- it seemingly had no effect
--he's an uber-elite player and even losing 5%-10% might not change much
--all indications are that he's closer to the front end of that recovery range than the back end
I think people are being too cautious -- that's about an optimistic scenario as you could construct.
Having said that, Gronk has several things going for him:
--his surgery was in 2013 and the date range of surgeries in the study was from 1996 to 2010
--he's 24 years old, and it's almost certain that some of the players in the study were near the end of their careers
--he had the surgery before the issue was bad enough to prevent him from playing
--he's had the surgery previously and obviously returned to 100% -- it seemingly had no effect
--he's an uber-elite player and even losing 5%-10% might not change much
--all indications are that he's closer to the front end of that recovery range than the back end
I think people are being too cautious -- that's about an optimistic scenario as you could construct.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I think there are some caveats to what you bring up:
1) This is the second major back surgery Gronk has had to rehab from.
2) His first surgery occurred in September 2009. From what I've read, it was the same type of surgery. He missed the 2009 college season and was still not ready to go for the NFL combine 5 months later. So while he did come back from it...in terms of playing actual football, he was given almost a full year. Would that 1st surgery have had some effect on his on-field performance if he was coming back 12-14 weeks later versus 40-50?
The point about being uber-elite is valid when he's been at 100%. But we've seen uber-elite players playing through injury or coming back from one where because they are not 100% in terms of their uber-eliteness for lack of a better term, not hit the high bar they've set for themselves. In addition, holding up to the grind of a 16 game NFL season when coming back quickly is a different animal than saying before Week 1 that you are 100%. Is it easier to be knocked off that 100% perch after going through that grueling grind? Does something like this affect your week to week recovery time?
Fact is, Gronk needs to be back for the Patriots and in all fairness, since he now has earned his $50M+ contract...he has a much larger obligation to be back ASAP now than he did as a prospective draftee searching for a place of employment so to speak. From my POV, I think being 100% structurally healthy is different than being 100% of the player you've demonstrated yourself to be and that includes being able to handle all that comes with the on-field brutality of the game.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
gronk is either gonna win a lot of people leagues.. or help alot of people finish in last
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I hear what you're saying and the five months that elapsed from his first surgery to the combine is a good point.
I think at the end of the day I believe that the medical team's incentives are aligned with protecting their $50m asset, and that they aren't going to throw him on the field if he's not ready to play or is greater risk of long-term injury. And literally everything since the surgery has lined up with a full recovery at 12 weeks to this point. So that informs the other stuff I posted earlier.
ETA: worth mentioning that Week 3 is almost 14 weeks removed from the surgery.
I think at the end of the day I believe that the medical team's incentives are aligned with protecting their $50m asset, and that they aren't going to throw him on the field if he's not ready to play or is greater risk of long-term injury. And literally everything since the surgery has lined up with a full recovery at 12 weeks to this point. So that informs the other stuff I posted earlier.
ETA: worth mentioning that Week 3 is almost 14 weeks removed from the surgery.
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Ace zero1
Footballguy
Well considering I took him round 6. It will only make my season. If its a bust it isn't a big deal
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think the trick here is having a 2nd TE in TE leagues; either in draft or WW have a backup plan.
massraider
Footballguy
The timeline of his college surgery, it kind of smells like he/his team was at that point getting ready for the draft. The 12 week timeline put him right up against the bowl game, and he didn't play in it. Next deadline was the combine, which he didn't participate in. Now, I do wonder if he was ready to go, and they just took an extra few weeks. Reason I say that is, he held his pro day, and crushed it. So he wasn't ready to go at the combine, and was a monster a few weeks later. He would not have been the first player to skip the combine to look good at the pro day.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Also, I'm not saying there's no risk or anything. I just think people are overblowing it and the overall tone is leaning the wrong way. We've got tons of reasons to feel pretty good about where he's at and, given what happened this summer, not very much negative info.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
i agree Rob, would they let him even take part in full contract drills if there was a chance of re-injury? Football game shape is a different animal I agree with.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I guess my point is that being ready to play from a health standpoint and being 'Gronk' aren't mutually exclusive.
Think about this...if the surgery was 6/18...as detailed in his book, for 6 weeks you pretty much can't do anything. You can't turn...you have to stand a certain way, sit a certain way. You simply are in wait and see mode. That would take him through the beginning of August where as he states ' you are a couch potato'. Anytime, you take that amount of time off from any physical activity, you lose that strength and conditioning where you were previously at, not to mention your ability to be acclimated to being in 'football shape'.
Again, I'm not saying I think he's at further risk of being re-injured. But I do think he's been behind the 8-ball enough with regard to his prep for the 2013 season where he's more likely to be just good than the HOF game changing type force he's been the two years prior.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
No doubt Gronk is a HR swing, but we play fantasy football to win. If you can get him 5th-6th, then it's a good gamble IMO. There's no doubt in my mind that at that point in the draft, he is one of the only true difference makers left. I think if you look at the RBs going in the 3rd-5th, you are probably taking on similar risk in that they don't have any real guarantee of playing time, success, or staying healthy.
